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Chip stocks tumble while Gulf tensions lift oil
Risk-off trading centered on a severe semiconductor selloff, rising long-end yields and widening commodity-supply risks. Late headlines softened the setup by delaying Canadian tariffs and easing Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chips.• Chips/Rates: Nasdaq futures opened weak and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index later fell more than 5%, with every member lower, as the 10-year yield reached a 19-month high of 4.75%.• Gulf/Oil: Attacks on shipping near Oman and the UAE's suspension of Iran trade pushed WTI above $85. Record diesel margins reinforced energy strength as inventories stayed exceptionally tight.• Trade/Canada: Trump delayed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods for three days, reversing an earlier deterioration in negotiations.• AI/China: Beijing allowed ByteDance and Tencent to import about 10,000 Nvidia H200 chips each, although approval requirements remained in place.• Macro/Housing: July housing starts dropped 12.4%, with single-family construction at its weakest since November 2022, adding a growth warning even as import prices unexpectedly declined.• Klarna: Shares sank after the company cut its 2026 revenue and gross merchandise volume forecasts despite reporting a quarterly profit.
Trump pauses Canada tariffs as China eases Nvidia H200 restrictions
Trade risk eased, while corporate and commodity developments created a mixed setup for US assets.• Canada/Tariffs: Trump delayed the 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods for three days, saying a deal was subject to final documents; no terms were disclosed.• Nvidia/China: The FT, citing people familiar with the matter, said Beijing allowed ByteDance and Tencent to import about 10,000 H200 chips each, while retaining approval requirements.• Pilgrim’s/M&A: JBS offered roughly $1.2 billion in stock for the 18% of Pilgrim’s Pride it does not own. PPC jumped as much as 8.8% after hours.• Copper/Supply: Available LME inventories rose by more than 20,000 tons, the biggest increase since April, easing the squeeze; copper fell as much as 0.5%.• Asia/Chips: South Korea’s Kospi sank as much as 6.8%, with Samsung and SK Hynix each down more than 7%.
UAE suspends Iran trade as Canada tariff talks falter
Geopolitical and trade risks intensified after the close, while a crypto-policy proposal and fresh deal interest offered selective support.• Gulf/Oil: The UAE suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran after saying Tehran fired two missiles toward maritime traffic; Iran denied involvement. WTI rose above $85, extending oil’s advance to four days.• Canada/Tariffs: Washington lowered expectations for a deal before 50% tariffs take effect at midnight on about $20 billion of Canadian exports. Autos, steel and provincial bans on US alcohol remained obstacles.• Crypto/SEC: The SEC proposed registration exemptions for digital-asset offerings up to $5 million for four years and up to $75 million for 12 months, with disclosure requirements.• Auto Software/M&A: Bloomberg reported that Copart is among bidders for CCC Intelligent Solutions, alongside GTCR and Veritas. Talks remain ongoing, and no deal is assured.
Chip selloff deepens as five grain ships are struck near Russian ports
Growth-stock pressure broadened across semiconductors, while takeover activity and commodity supply disruptions created pockets of strength.• Chips/Equities: All 30 Philadelphia Semiconductor Index members fell, pushing the gauge down more than 5%. Credo and Coherent dropped about 12%, while Teradyne lost nearly 9%.• Black Sea/Grains: Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, reported that at least five grain ships were attacked near Russian ports. The Anna S was disabled after a drone strike caused a fire.• UGI/M&A: The Wall Street Journal reported that KKR offered roughly $9 billion, or $42.50 a share, for UGI, a 21% premium to Monday’s close. A deal is not assured.• Refining: US diesel margins reached a record above $102 a barrel as domestic inventories fell to their lowest late-August level since 1996.
Housing starts slump as Klarna cuts its outlook
Macro data were mixed, while earnings and legal developments drove sharp single-stock dispersion.• Housing: US housing starts fell 12.4% in July to a 1.24 million annual rate, below the 1.35 million consensus. Single-family starts hit their lowest since November 2022.• Markets/Inflation: The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%, a 19-month high, and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, even as import prices dropped 0.4% versus a 0.1% increase expected.• Klarna: Shares fell 18% premarket after the company cut 2026 revenue guidance to $4.08-$4.16 billion and its GMV forecast to $149-$151 billion despite posting a quarterly profit.• Home Depot: Comparable sales rose 1.7%, the strongest growth since late 2022, and adjusted earnings beat estimates. Shares gained 0.8% premarket.• Disney/FCC: ABC sued the FCC, alleging an illegal retaliatory campaign involving its broadcast-license reviews and seeking to block further action.
Nasdaq futures slide after projectile strikes vessel near Hormuz
Risk appetite weakened as a fresh Hormuz attack, rising oil and another leg higher in global yields pressured growth stocks.• Markets/Rates: Nasdaq-100 futures fell about 1%, while the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.333%, up roughly 2 basis points from Monday’s 5.314% high.• Oil/Hormuz: A UK maritime agency said an unknown projectile struck a cargo ship near Oman. Bloomberg reported one casualty; Iran’s separate tanker-detention claim remained unverified.• Microsoft/China: Bloomberg reported that Chinese security officials told some state-linked entities to uninstall a customized Windows 10 version early. Microsoft said it knew of no security incident.• Alibaba/AI: Hong Kong shares jumped as much as 5% after Alipay launched an AI-agent platform for merchants.• ECB/Inflation: Philip Lane said euro-area inflation would likely stay near 3% through 2026 because of elevated energy costs.
AI hedge fund loses $30 billion as copper supply squeeze intensifies
Forced deleveraging in AI trades and a fresh copper squeeze added to risk, while Beijing’s response to weak data remained measured.• Hedge Funds: Situational Awareness lost 67%, or about $30 billion, in July after leveraged AI longs fell and software shorts rallied. The WSJ said it sold public positions to Citadel at roughly a 10% discount.• Copper: The LME’s one-day spread widened to $75 a ton, the most since January, while spot metal briefly commanded a $545 premium to three-month futures amid US-bound inventory shifts.• China Policy: Premier Li Qiang called for faster implementation of existing measures and incremental support, but analysts still expect no immediate major stimulus.• Alphabet Funding: Alphabet began marketing its debut Australian bond sale, seeking about A$5 billion as AI spending drives further fundraising.
Stocks fall after Hormuz tanker report lifts oil above $90
Geopolitical risk dominated the day, lifting energy and long-term yields while pressuring broad equities into the close. Strong AI infrastructure demand supported chips and credit, but late financing and leverage headlines exposed growing risks around the investment boom.• Oil/Rates: Brent settled 2.7% higher at $90.87 after fighting between Israel and Hezbollah intensified and Iranian media reported an unverified tanker seizure in Hormuz. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.314%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.5%.• Macro/Growth: Weak Chinese output, retail sales and investment data darkened the premarket backdrop, while the Empire State manufacturing index surged to 20.6 and input-price growth accelerated.• AI/Capital: Nvidia agreed to supply the first 5 gigawatts of OpenAI’s planned Ohio campus, and heavy demand prompted QTS to consider enlarging a Microsoft-linked bond sale. After hours, a leveraged AI hedge fund disclosed a 67% July loss, while Alphabet marketed A$5 billion of Australian debt.• Corporate: RTX won a $22.9 billion Navy contract, while Stellantis dropped more than 4% on a large recall. AstraZeneca halted a lung-cancer trial, whereas Argenx rallied after positive autoimmune data.
Stocks fall after unverified report says Iran seized Hormuz tanker
Risk appetite weakened into the close as higher oil outweighed strength in AI-linked chips; company news added fresh dispersion.• Oil/Equities: Brent settled 2.7% higher at $90.87 after Iranian media reported a tanker seizure in Hormuz, though the claim remained unverified. The S&P 500 and Dow fell 0.5%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.3%.• AI/Chips: Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion. Sandisk rose 8.9%, Marvell 5.5% and Micron 4.1%.• Meta/Litigation: A five-week youth-harm trial starts Tuesday. Meta estimated maximum theoretical penalties of $1.4 trillion and denied the allegations.• BHP/Earnings: Underlying annual profit jumped 30% to $13.2 billion, with copper revenue surpassing iron ore for the first time.• Stellantis/Recall: US shares fell more than 4% after a roughly 955,000-vehicle backup-camera recall.
Thirty-year yield tops 5.3% after Brent climbs above $90
Long-end yields and oil pushed higher on conflict concerns, while strong data-center credit demand and Exxon’s LNG spending supported selective risk appetite.• Rates/Oil: The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.314%, putting it on track for its first close above 5.3% since June 2007, after Brent topped $90. The 10-year yield rose to 4.726%.• AI/Credit: Blackstone-backed QTS was considering increasing a Microsoft-linked bond sale by about $1 billion to $3.9 billion after orders exceeded $8 billion, Bloomberg reported. The low-to-mid-7% yield resembles junk pricing.• Energy/LNG: Exxon revived the roughly $30 billion Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique, awarding about $1.1 billion of pre-investment contracts, although the final investment decision slipped to end-2026.• AI/Regulation: Bloomberg reported that the DOJ is investigating Andreessen Horowitz partners’ board seats at competing data companies. No decision has been made, and the probe may end without action.
Trump threatens Oman as New York factory gauge hits four-year high
Geopolitical risk broadened around Hormuz, while stronger regional manufacturing data and major AI and defense commitments supported selective risk appetite.• Oil/Mideast: Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructed US-Iran negotiations or the Hormuz blockade, widening the conflict’s potential Gulf footprint.• Macro/Manufacturing: The Empire State index rose to 20.6, roughly double consensus and its strongest since 2021; input-price growth accelerated.• AI/Infrastructure: OpenAI signed a 20-year lease for a 10-gigawatt Ohio campus. Nvidia will supply the first 5 gigawatts and provide a backstop capped at $105 billion.• Defense: RTX won a $22.9 billion Navy contract to accelerate Tomahawk production amid inventory strain from the Iran war.• L3Harris: The company replaced CEO Christopher Kubasik after a conduct investigation; it said finances and operations were unaffected.
Oil jumps after Israel-Hezbollah fighting intensifies
Geopolitical and Chinese growth risks pressured the backdrop, while credit stress and divergent drug-trial results sharpened sector dispersion.• Oil/Mideast: Brent rose more than 5% after Israel-Hezbollah fighting intensified, threatening the US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire as the US-Iran truce neared expiry.• China/Growth: July industrial output rose 4.5%, below forecast, retail sales gained just 0.6%, and fixed-asset investment fell 6.7% year to date; no fresh stimulus was announced.• Private Credit: Median non-accruals at the 20 largest listed BDCs climbed to 2.8% of cost from 2% in March, while Fitch said July defaults hit a record.• AstraZeneca: The company stopped a late-stage volrustomig lung-cancer trial after an independent panel judged it unlikely to outperform Keytruda.• Argenx: Shares jumped as much as 10% after Vyvgart succeeded in a large autoimmune-myositis trial that may support US approval.
Stocks approach records after soft inflation cools Fed hike bets
Risk appetite improved as softer inflation and weak consumer data reduced expectations for further Fed tightening, although long-end supply and persistent oil disruption risk limited the bond rally. AI infrastructure demand stayed robust, but increasingly complex financing guarantees made leadership more selective and left Nvidia volatile.• Macro/Rates: July CPI and PPI undershot expectations, and retail sales and consumer sentiment weakened. Equities moved toward records, the dollar hit its lowest level since May, and short yields fell, but a costly 30-year auction and looming 20-year supply kept duration under pressure.• Oil/Iran: Brent rose roughly 5% Monday and remained near $89 as blockade threats, tanker damage and sharply reduced Hormuz traffic sustained an inflationary risk premium. Diplomatic reports and a 17.4 million-barrel US inventory build produced sharp reversals without resolving supply concerns.• AI/Financing: Strong cloud growth, compute contracts and data-center spending lifted RIOT, SMCI, CRWV and industrial suppliers. Nvidia's proposed $500 billion financing framework drew mounting scrutiny as reported guarantees narrowed, and the stock ended the week pressured by chip-backed lending concerns.• Corporate Catalysts: Workday surged on Silver Lake takeover talks, Reddit rallied on S&P 500 inclusion, and PayPal gained on sale discussions. Intel remained weak after expanding its discounted equity offering to $20 billion, while Cisco fell on disappointing margin guidance.
Nvidia falls on lending concerns while copper nears record
Company-specific weakness and Hawaii’s worsening disruption dominated US news flow before late global trading shifted attention to commodity scarcity and rising Japanese yields. Nvidia’s decline revived concerns about financing the AI buildout, while tight copper supply and Hormuz uncertainty supported resource exposures. Heavy Treasury supply kept duration risk elevated.• Nvidia/AI: Nvidia fell 3% as investors questioned chip-backed lending structures, putting financing risks around expensive AI infrastructure back in focus.• Copper/Supply: LME copper approached a record as the cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to $478 a ton, the most since 2021. Korea Eximbank also offered Glencore $1 billion for supply access.• Rates/Supply: Wednesday’s $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction was expected to price near 5.27%, the highest yield since the maturity returned in 2020.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent edged up to $88.72 after a report that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard blocked a proposed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.• Japan/Rates: Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 2.93%, its highest since 1996, as swaps priced an 80% chance of a BOJ move by September despite soft growth.• Hawaii/Utilities: Outages exceeded 200,000 and two hospitals switched to emergency power as flooding impeded fuel deliveries, deepening operational risk for Hawaiian Electric.
Japanese yields hit 1996 high as copper approaches record
Japan’s rate outlook diverged from soft growth, while tight copper supply and renewed Hormuz uncertainty shaped cross-asset risk.• Japan/Rates: The 10-year JGB yield rose 5.5 basis points to 2.93%, its highest since 1996, despite second-quarter growth missing forecasts at 1.1% annualized. Swaps priced about an 80% chance of a BOJ move by September; the Nikkei gained 0.5%.• Copper/Supply: LME copper approached a record as the cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to $478 a ton, the largest since 2021. Korea Eximbank separately agreed to lend Glencore $1 billion in exchange for copper supply.• Oil/Hormuz: The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard blocked a proposed Hormuz reopening deal. Brent was 0.2% higher at $88.72.• Alibaba/Deals: Alibaba agreed to sell Lingxi Games to Trustar Capital in a transaction reportedly valuing the unit above $1.5 billion, advancing its AI focus.
Hawaii outages top 200,000 as Trump curtails South Korea military drills
Weather disruptions intensified in Hawaii, while Treasury supply and company-specific financing concerns added risk across utilities, bonds and technology.• Hawaii/Utilities: Power outages climbed above 200,000, and two hospitals shifted to emergency power. Flooding impeded fuel deliveries, while officials reported no confirmed storm deaths.• US/South Korea: Trump ordered the Pentagon to substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea, saying cancellation was too late but the drills would be scaled back.• Rates/Supply: Wednesday’s $16 billion 20-year Treasury auction may price near 5.27%, the highest yield since the maturity was reintroduced in 2020.• AI/Deals: Bloomberg reported that Stripe finalized a deal to buy OpenRouter for more than $7 billion. Stripe called the report rumor or speculation, and neither company confirmed it.• Nvidia: Shares fell 3% as investors questioned chip-backed lending structures.
NATO downs suspected Russian drone over Romania as Israel’s economy rebounds 15.4%
Geopolitical spillover widened into NATO airspace, while Israel’s growth surprise and Hawaii’s improving storm track created a mixed macro backdrop.• NATO/Ukraine: A Spanish F-18 shot down a suspected Russian drone over Romania, the second NATO-airspace interception in three days. Ukraine separately launched more than 600 drones toward Moscow, setting a Wildberries warehouse ablaze.• Israel/Growth: Second-quarter GDP surged 15.4% annualized, nearly double the 8.3% consensus, as exports jumped 35.2%.• Hawaii/Utilities: Lala weakened to a tropical storm and moved away from the Big Island, but a flash-flood emergency remained after two homes were swept away; nearly one-third of the island lacked power.• Autos/Lubricants: Volkswagen, Stellantis and Toyota are qualifying alternative motor oils after Group III base-oil prices nearly tripled to about $4,000 a tonne amid Middle East disruptions.