May 20, 2026

Ross jumps as House pulls Iran war vote

After-hours news was more stock-specific than macro, with off-price retail strength, renewed oil uncertainty and fresh EV/legal risk standing out while AI-linked industrial demand remained firm.• Retail: Ross Stores rose as much as 9.6% after raising its full-year outlook; Q1 revenue was $6.01 billion, EPS was $2.02 and same-store sales rose a record 17%.• Energy/Policy: WTI rebounded toward $98 after three declines as Iranian comments on uranium and Hormuz tolls complicated optimism over US-Iran negotiations; House Republicans pulled an Iran war-powers vote after lacking votes to defeat it.• EVs: North Carolina sued VinFast to reclaim the Chatham County factory site, citing missed construction, job and July 2026 operating milestones tied to a $3 billion, 7,500-job pledge.• AI/Industrials: Kawasaki Heavy rallied up to 12% on a confirmed Nvidia, Microsoft and Fujitsu physical-AI robotics collaboration; Lenovo jumped 13% after AI products reached 38% of sales.

Dow hits record after oil falls on Iran peace hopes

Risk tone improved into the close on Iran-deal hopes, but Washington policy risk and stock-specific after-hours moves kept dispersion high.• Markets/Energy: The Dow closed at a record 50,286; Brent fell 2.3% to $102.58 after touching $108, and 10-year yields approached 4.55% as Treasuries erased losses.• AI/Regulation: Trump postponed an AI order that would have asked major model developers to preview systems to the government, saying he feared slowing the US against China.• Policy/Airlines: Senate Republicans delayed the $72 billion immigration bill until June amid a revolt over Trump’s $1.8 billion DOJ fund; DHS separately reiterated a threat to cut airport customs in sanctuary cities, though Transportation Secretary Duffy rejected rerouting flights.• Afterhours/Deals: Estée Lauder rose 11.5% postmarket after ending Puig merger talks; Workday rallied on a Q1 beat, and IMAX was reported to be exploring a sale.

US factory PMI jumps as Turkish stocks slide

Risk news turned more inflationary, with stronger US factory activity and higher mortgage rates offset by fresh emerging-market political stress and selective single-name gains.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US factory PMI rose to 55.3 in May, the fastest expansion in four years, but input costs hit the highest since June 2022 and composite employment contracted.• Turkey: Turkish stocks fell more than 6% after a court removed the main opposition party’s leader; state lenders sold about $6 billion to defend the lira, traders told Bloomberg.• Housing: Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the highest since August, pressuring builders into the spring selling season.• AI/Software: Anthropic is in early talks to rent Microsoft Maia AI chips, The Information reported; Microsoft rose about 2%.• Media: Spotify rose roughly 11% after setting 1 billion-subscriber and $100 billion revenue targets.

Quantum stocks jump as Brent tops $107

Premarket risk tone softened as oil and rates firmed, but stock-specific moves were led by government support for quantum computing, retail margin pressure and obesity-drug data.• Quantum: The US will award $2 billion to nine quantum-computing firms and take minority equity stakes; IBM is slated for $1 billion, with IBM up more than 7% premarket, GlobalFoundries up 13%, D-Wave up 16% and Rigetti up about 15%.• Energy/Rates: Brent rose above $107 and the 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4.6% after Reuters reported Iran’s Supreme Leader opposed sending enriched uranium abroad.• Retail: Walmart’s US comps rose 4.1% and e-commerce grew 26%, but higher fuel costs cut operating-profit growth by 2.5 points and the company left full-year guidance unchanged.• Pharma: Lilly said retatrutide cut weight by 28.3% over 80 weeks in a late-stage obesity trial, with 11% high-dose discontinuations.

Euro-zone activity shrinks as AMD commits $10 billion to Taiwan

European PMIs added a stagflationary macro shock, while AI supply-chain news stayed active and travel demand showed clearer fuel-war pressure.• Europe/Macro: Euro-zone composite PMI fell to 47.5, the weakest in 2.5 years, with S&P warning inflation could approach 4%; French activity sank to 43.5, the worst since 2020.• UK/Macro: UK private-sector output contracted for the first time in more than a year, with PMI at 48.5; firms cut jobs for a 20th month.• AI/Chips: AMD pledged more than $10 billion for Taiwan partnerships and packaging capacity, while Taiwanese prosecutors sought to detain three people over alleged Nvidia server smuggling via Super Micro.• Airlines: EasyJet said summer bookings were 58% sold, down 2 points year over year, and raised minimum ticket prices to offset fuel costs.

Oil tightens while Samsung deal lifts Korean chips

Oil risk re-emerged in Asia, while chip supply concerns eased in Korea and several large financing and deal threads advanced.• Energy: Goldman said global oil stockpiles are falling at a record 8.7 million b/d in May, with Hormuz exports at 5% of normal under a double blockade; that is an analyst estimate, not official flow data.• Korea/Chips: Samsung reached a tentative union deal 90 minutes before a strike deadline, including a 6.2% average wage increase and profit-linked bonuses; Kospi jumped as much as 6.1%, Samsung nearly 7% and SK Hynix 8.1%.• India/FX: The RBI is weighing options including an out-of-cycle hike, NRI deposits and sovereign dollar bonds as the rupee nears 97 per dollar.• REITs: WSJ put the AvalonBay-Equity Residential deal at roughly $51 billion, with AVB holders to receive 2.793 EQR shares.• SpaceX: WSJ said the IPO could raise $80 billion or more, potentially topping Saudi Aramco.

Nvidia slips as SpaceX reveals IPO financials

After-hours news flow centered on AI and mega-cap capital markets, with Nvidia’s print drawing a muted-to-negative reaction and SpaceX’s public prospectus adding fresh valuation, governance and customer-deal details.• Nvidia: Shares fell about 1.4% after hours. Revenue was $81.6 billion, current-quarter sales guidance was $91 billion versus an $86 billion average estimate, and Nvidia added an $80 billion buyback, but some investors had looked for as much as $96 billion.• SpaceX IPO: The S-1 showed $18.7 billion of 2025 revenue, a $4.94 billion net loss, $20.7 billion of capex, about 85% Musk voting control and a planned Nasdaq listing under SPCX.• AI/Compute: Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX about $45 billion through May 2029 for compute, or $1.25 billion a month after ramp-up.• Real Estate: AvalonBay and Equity Residential are nearing a merger, Bloomberg reported; talks could still fall through.

Fed minutes flag rate-hike risk as OpenAI readies IPO filing

Risk assets held firm, but the afternoon added a hawkish Fed record, a major AI listing report and fresh geopolitical/legal headlines.• Macro/Rates: Fed minutes showed a majority saw policy firming as likely if inflation stays above 2%, and many wanted to remove the easing bias from the April statement.• AI/Capital Markets: OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing within days or weeks, possibly Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising and a September listing targeted.• Energy/Geopolitics: U.S. crude settled down $5.89 at $98.26, extending its two-day drop to $10.40; U.S. Marines also boarded and released another Iran-flagged tanker.• Cuba/Policy: The Justice Department charged Raúl Castro with murder and conspiracy, but Trump said “there won’t be escalation” against Cuba.• Travel: Airbnb announced luggage storage, airport pickups, future rentals and boutique hotels to expand beyond stays.

Treasuries rally after Trump cites final stages of Iran talks

Rates and oil swung on a more constructive Iran signal, while company news split between AI-linked power demand, retail resilience and fresh software layoffs.• Geopolitics/Rates: Treasuries rallied, sending two- to 10-year yields down about 10 bp, after Trump said US-Iran talks were in the “final stages”; the dollar fell 0.3% and Brent was down more than 5%.• Energy: US crude inventories including the SPR fell a record 17.8 million barrels last week, with record exports eroding supply cushions and leaving stockpiles at the lowest in nearly a year.• Tech/Labor: Intuit fell as much as 5.9% after Reuters reported plans to cut about 3,000 jobs, or 17% of staff, before earnings.• Power/AI: Constellation and Vistra rose about 6% after PJM moved its data-center connection timeline up to September, a year earlier than planned.• Retail: Target reversed lower after executives cautioned on consumers, while TJX rose more than 5% after raising guidance.

Futures rise after tankers cross Hormuz

Risk tone improved as confirmed Hormuz transits pulled oil lower and eased bond pressure, while Iran/NATO headlines kept tail risk alive.• Energy/Markets: Brent fell more than 2% toward $108 after three tankers, two Chinese and one South Korean, crossed Hormuz overnight; guidance still warned of mines and analysts cautioned against calling it a reopening.• Geopolitics/Defense: Iran threatened retaliation beyond the Middle East if the US or Israel attack again; NATO’s Rutte confirmed informal talks on a possible Hormuz role.• Retail: Target rose premarket after 5.6% comps and a higher sales outlook; Lowe’s fell after 0.6% comps missed and guidance stayed unchanged.• Chips/China: Beijing banned Nvidia’s RTX 5090D V2 and set June 15 mining controls on unspecified strategic minerals.• EM/Rates: Indonesia unexpectedly hiked 50 bp to 5.25%, while India bill yields jumped as traders priced hikes.

UK inflation falls to 2.8% as Putin and Xi sign strategic pact

Global markets monitored a flurry of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments as Russia and China deepened strategic ties without finalizing a key pipeline, while cooling UK inflation and emerging shipping movements offered tentative relief.• Geopolitics/Energy: Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi signed a strategic pact in Beijing, though they notably omitted any progress on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.• Macro/Inflation: UK consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 2.8% in April, driven by domestic energy caps despite ongoing Middle East fuel shocks.• FX/Emerging Markets: India's rupee hit a record low of 96.9650, prompting central bank intervention and Citigroup predictions of imminent currency controls.• Energy/Shipping: Three East Asian supertankers attempted to exit the Strait of Hormuz, marking the largest potential corridor traffic since the war began.

Xi urges Middle East ceasefire while Alibaba unveils new AI chip

Global markets digested geopolitical maneuvering in Beijing alongside key technology and trade developments, as China and Russia deepened ties while seeking to manage relations with the West.• Geopolitics/Energy: Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where Xi urged a Middle East ceasefire to stabilize energy supplies amid rising Russian energy imports.• Tech/AI: Alibaba introduced its Zhenwu M890 AI chip to compete with Nvidia, while OpenAI committed $234 million to build its first offshore applied AI lab in Singapore.• Trade Policy: China sought to extend its trade truce with the US, while EU lawmakers reached a provisional agreement on a US trade pact to avert tariff threats.• Tech/Labor: Samsung Electronics faces potential chip production disruptions after labor negotiations failed, prompting a union strike scheduled for Thursday.

Goldman to lead SpaceX IPO as Senate advances Iran war powers resolution

US stock futures pointed lower in late trading as a massive block-sale capitulation in Treasuries and escalating political tension over the Iran war overshadowed corporate updates.• SpaceX / Capital Markets: Goldman Sachs will take the lead-left underwriting position alongside Morgan Stanley on SpaceX’s upcoming initial public offering, which could raise $75 billion.• Geopolitics / Policy: The US Senate voted 50-47 to advance a resolution forcing President Trump to end the war in Iran, aided by four Republican defectors.• Corporate / Tech: Meta Platforms began laying off approximately 8,000 employees and reassigning 7,000 others to newly formed AI teams to offset heavy capital expenditures.• Macro / Rates: Large block sales of Treasury futures equivalent to $15 billion in 10-year notes accelerated a bond selloff, pushing the 30-year yield to its highest since 2007.

Stocks fall after Iran talks show little progress

Risk finished weaker as Iran diplomacy showed little progress and energy-inflation fears kept pressure on stocks and bonds; Google’s I/O added competitive AI detail without a clear positive share reaction.• Markets/Rates: Nasdaq fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 lost 0.7% and the Dow slipped 0.6%; the 10-year yield closed at 4.668%, its highest close since January 2025, while Brent fell 0.7% to $111.28.• Iran/Oil: US officials said they seized the sanctioned Iran-linked Skywave tanker, likely carrying more than 1mn barrels; WSJ also reported mediators see little progress in US-Iran talks.• AI/Google: Google detailed its AI search revamp, Gemini 3.5 Flash, a cut in Ultra pricing to $200 from $250, a new $100 developer tier and fall smart-glasses partners; Alphabet was still down 1.8% mid-keynote.• Regulation/Banks: The SEC proposed easing large-issuer IPO rules for up to five years, while US regulators proposed overhauling CAMELS bank ratings.

Long yields rise as Trump renews Iran strike threat

Rates pressure and Iran headlines remained the main macro overhang, while autos, tech hardware and copper added more targeted equity catalysts.• Energy/Geopolitics: Trump threatened a “big hit” on Iran within days absent a deal, while Treasury sanctioned 50-plus Tehran-linked entities and 19 vessels; Bloomberg said Brent fell 1% after the comments.• Rates/Macro: The 30-year yield reached 5.19%, and Bank of America said nearly two-thirds of surveyed fund managers see it above 6% within 12 months; the 10-year traded above 4.67%.• Industrials/Autos: Novelis said its Oswego aluminum rolling line should restart within weeks, slightly ahead of target, easing a supply pinch for Ford’s F-150 production.• Tech Hardware: Cisco slipped after its CFO said AI-infrastructure hardware growth carries a different gross-margin profile and will remain a headwind.• Copper: Chile cut its 2026 copper output forecast to 5.3mn tons, reinforcing tight-supply risk for miners.

Long bond hits 2007 high while US futures slip

Rates pressure stayed the dominant market signal, while retail, AI-market infrastructure and policy headlines added single-name catalysts before the open.• Rates/Equities: The 30-year Treasury yield rose another 5 bps to 5.18%, the highest since 2007; S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.6%.• Retail: Home Depot same-store sales rose 0.6%, missing estimates, though adjusted EPS beat; management said shoppers are still deferring large projects.• AI/Market Structure: ICE plans cash-settled futures tied to GPU compute costs, following CME’s similar move and further institutionalizing compute as a tradable commodity.• Macro/Canada: Canada CPI rose 2.8%, below the 3.1% estimate, while core gauges eased to an average 2.05%.• Autos/Policy: A House proposal would add annual EV registration fees starting at $130, rising to $150.

Citi flags 5.5% long-bond risk as UK payrolls slide

Rates and global growth risks dominated, with fresh evidence that energy inflation is feeding into labor, consumer bills and long-end yield pressure; AI-cloud competition also produced confirmed moves.• Rates/Macro: Citi said 5.5% may be the next threshold for 30-year Treasury yields after the long bond reached 5.16%; markets now price a Fed hike by March 2027.• UK/Energy: UK payrolls fell 100,000 in April versus a 10,000 expected drop, while vacancies hit a five-year low; the household energy cap is seen rising 13% to £1,850 from July.• AI Cloud: CRWV fell about 5% and NBIS slipped 1% after the WSJ report on the Google-Blackstone rival; GOOGL stayed down about 1% despite its Gemini Spark debut.• Geopolitics/Energy: The IAEA said power was restored to the UAE’s drone-hit Barakah reactor; Singapore bought enough non-Middle East LNG for the rest of the year.• EM/Commodities: Indonesian stocks fell as much as 4.2% on export-control speculation; nickel rose up to 2.6% on reported Indonesian NPI maintenance.

Google and Blackstone form AI cloud venture as Korea chip stocks tumble

AI-infrastructure competition broadened while Asia tech weakness and energy bottlenecks kept risk appetite fragile.• AI Cloud: Google and Blackstone agreed to create a US AI-cloud company, with Blackstone investing $5bn of equity and total investment potentially reaching $25bn including leverage; the venture targets 500MW by 2027 using Google TPUs.• Semis/Asia: South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 5% as Samsung and SK Hynix tracked weaker US chip peers; margin debt hit a record 36.5tn won.• Energy/Geopolitics: Iran is storing 42mn barrels of crude on Middle East tankers, Kpler said, while US Central Command said it redirected 72 ships and disabled four.• Semis/M&A: Analog Devices is in advanced talks to buy Empower Semiconductor for $1.5bn in cash, Bloomberg reported; no final agreement has been reached.