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Shopify surges on outlook as Alphabet slides after DeepMind shake-up
US trading was defined by sharp single-stock dispersion and shifting rate expectations. Hawkish Fed remarks pressured duration during the cash session, while after-hours guidance misses renewed pressure on richly valued technology shares.• Rates/Commodities: Weak private hiring competed with sticky services inflation and calls from Kashkari and Daly for tighter policy. Markets nevertheless reduced expected year-end hikes, helping gold hold near $4,260, while copper reached a record on AI demand, supply disruptions and tariffs.• AI/Technology: Alphabet fell about 4% after a DeepMind leadership overhaul, while reported US restrictions on Chinese optical components and China's drone export controls reinforced trade risk. SpaceX sank more than 10% on its long cash-burn outlook, and AppLovin dropped as much as 25% after hours on soft guidance.• Earnings/Winners: Shopify surged as much as 33.8% after its revenue-growth outlook beat consensus. Lilly gained 7% on stronger sales and raised guidance, while Moderna's flu-shot approval improved its commercial outlook.• Energy/Geopolitics: Oil was mixed as an unconfirmed Hormuz shipping framework competed with Houthi threats and Iran said any reopening remained conditional on US actions.
AppLovin plunges on soft outlook as gold surges on reduced rate-hike bets
After-hours trading punished weak guidance and discounted equity issuance, while stronger consumer-platform results offered selective support. Gold extended its rally after rate expectations softened.• AppLovin: Shares fell as much as 25% after $1.92 billion in revenue missed consensus and third-quarter sales guidance was soft.• Gold/Rates: Gold held near $4,260 after a 4.1% surge as markets priced one Fed hike by year-end, down from two last week. Cook separately reiterated that she was prepared to raise rates.• Celestica: Shares dropped 11% after the company sought $3 billion in equity at up to a 15% discount.• Block: Shares gained about 3% after adjusted EPS beat estimates and full-year guidance rose to $4.02.• Expedia: Revenue growth guidance increased to 9%-10% from 6%-9% after resilient travel bookings.
Alphabet slides on changes at DeepMind as copper hits a record
Alphabet's AI leadership upheaval pressured its shares, while the Nasdaq retreated and commodities diverged amid conditional Hormuz diplomacy and record copper.• Alphabet: Shares fell about 4% after Demis Hassabis moved to chair and chief scientist, Koray Kavukcuoglu took operational control, and Jeff Dean left with three veterans to launch an Alphabet-backed startup.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran said it agreed with Oman on route coordinates, but Iran’s leadership had not approved the plan and reopening remained conditional on US actions. Brent finished slightly higher while WTI slipped.• Copper: New York futures rose 1.3% to a record $6.703 a pound, supported by AI-related demand, mine disruption and US tariffs.• Shake Shack: Shares jumped 9% after Starboard disclosed a stake worth several hundred million dollars.• Uber: Shares fell 6% after third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of 84-88 cents put the midpoint below the 87-cent consensus, despite 12% revenue growth.
Shopify surges on outlook as Kashkari urges gradual rate increases
Rate expectations turned more hawkish even as private hiring cooled, while company results drove unusually large single-stock moves.• Fed/Macro: Kashkari said the Fed should start slowly raising rates. ADP payrolls rose 44,000 after a revised 95,000 gain, while ISM services edged up to 54.1; its prices index remained above 70 and employment contracted.• Shopify: Shares surged as much as 33.8% after third-quarter revenue growth guidance in the low-30% range topped the 27% consensus.• CVS: Shares reversed to a roughly 6% decline despite raised 2026 guidance after management warned Caremark membership will fall in 2027 under its new pricing model.• Lilly: Shares gained 7% after quarterly revenue jumped 48% and the company raised full-year sales guidance to $85 billion-$87 billion.
SpaceX slides past 10% as China tightens drone export curbs
Premarket trading stayed selective: heavy AI spending pressured SpaceX, while trade retaliation and uncertain Hormuz diplomacy kept geopolitical risk elevated. Strong results supported several cyclicals.• SpaceX: Shares extended their premarket decline to more than 10%, around $111. Musk targeted $1 trillion of revenue by 2030, while Morgan Stanley expects negative free cash flow through 2035.• US-China Trade: China tightened drone and spare-parts export controls to the US and sanctioned several American companies in retaliation for wider US technology restrictions.• Oil/Hormuz: Axios reported a proposed 60-day shipping arrangement with separate inbound and outbound lanes and no fees. Oil rebounded after Houthi militants threatened shipping; the proposal remains unconfirmed.• Carlyle: Distributable earnings rose 9.6% to $472.3 million, or $1.07 a share, beating 91 cents, as exits improved.• Honda: Shares rose nearly 4% after Honda raised its annual operating-profit forecast 30% to ¥650 billion on US hybrid demand and a weaker yen.
China’s services growth hits two-year low as US weighs Chinese optical-component ban
Asian growth concerns deepened, while AI infrastructure produced both trade risk and selective earnings strength.• China/Macro: RatingDog’s services PMI fell to 50.4, its lowest since September 2024, from 54.1; official data also showed services contracting.• AI/Trade: Chinese optical suppliers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink fell 8.6% and 6.9% after Reuters reported that the FCC was drafting an import ban. The proposal is unconfirmed, and Jefferies called it unlikely.• AI/Chips: Infineon forecast €4.7 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, above €4.6 billion expected, as AI data-center power-chip demand strengthened.• AI/Credit: Banks plan to refinance $15 billion of debt for an Anthropic-leased Texas campus. The bonds are expected to be speculative grade because Google’s backstop starts only after completion.
Stocks rally after Hormuz deal hopes drive oil lower
US risk assets rallied into the close as hopes for a near-term Hormuz agreement reversed oil’s gains, eased inflation pressure and pulled Treasury yields lower. After-hours trading turned selective as heavy AI spending punished technology names, while a hawkish Fed signal limited enthusiasm.• Hormuz/Markets: Brent fell 5% after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could come within two days. The Dow gained about 1,000 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq added more than 2%; yields declined three to four basis points. Iran later disputed reported talks, keeping geopolitical risk alive. Kansas City Fed President Schmid separately said policy was not restrictive and needed tightening.• AI/Spending: SpaceX dropped more than 8% after $15.8 billion of AI capital spending exceeded estimates and management projected similarly heavy outlays. AMD fell 6% despite stronger revenue guidance, while Nvidia recovered after SpaceX named it the exclusive data-center supplier.• Corporate Results: Caterpillar jumped 9.3% on record revenue and a large earnings beat, and Palantir extended its post-results rally. Spotify fell on weak guidance, while Chipotle slid after Minnesota linked a salmonella outbreak to restaurant visits.
SpaceX slides as Schmid calls for tighter Fed policy
Late trading focused on persistent AI-spending pressure at SpaceX, a direct Starlink threat to wireless incumbents and a hawkish Fed signal; Tehran also disputed reported diplomatic progress.• SpaceX: Shares extended their postmarket drop to more than 8%. CFO Bret Johnsen said each of the next two quarters should resemble the second quarter’s $18.4 billion of capex; management targeted $100 billion of annual recurring revenue by year-end.• Telecom: AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell about 1% after Gwynne Shotwell said SpaceX intends to build a terrestrial network using EchoStar spectrum and expects to take customers from the three carriers.• Fed: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said policy is not restrictive and that returning inflation to 2% will require tighter policy.• Iran: Tehran denied knowledge of talks that Trump claimed were underway and scheduled for Monday, contradicting the US president’s account.
SpaceX slides after AI capital spending exceeds estimates
After-hours trading turned selective as heavy AI spending punished otherwise strong results, while drugmakers delivered cleaner beats and wildfire liability risk increased.• SpaceX: Shares fell about 5% after revenue beat estimates at $7.8 billion, as $15.8 billion of AI capex exceeded forecasts and a potential 911.5 million-share unlock loomed Thursday.• Nvidia: Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia exclusively for data-center capacity, briefly lifting Nvidia from a 1% after-hours loss into positive territory.• AMD: Shares dropped 6% after its $13 billion third-quarter revenue outlook topped consensus but missed elevated expectations; data-center sales more than doubled to $6.7 billion.• Edison: Los Angeles County officials concluded Southern California Edison equipment caused the Eaton Fire, which killed 19 people and damaged or destroyed more than 9,000 properties.• Amgen: The company raised annual guidance after revenue and earnings beat estimates, but ended early development of obesity candidate AMG 513.
Dow rallies to record after Hormuz optimism deepens oil selloff
Risk appetite strengthened as easing energy inflation supported equities and bonds, while dealmaking and company-specific headlines drove sharp moves.• Markets/Oil: Brent extended its drop to 5%, helping send Treasury yields three to four basis points lower. The Dow gained about 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq topped 2%.• P&G/Deal: Procter & Gamble agreed to buy supplement maker Thorne for $3.8 billion, expanding its beauty and wellness portfolio.• Canada/Space: Telesat won a military satellite contract worth up to C$2.7 billion; Telesat jumped 32% and supplier MDA gained 16%.• Chipotle: Shares fell as much as 8.5% after Minnesota linked 75 interviewed patients to Chipotle visits during a salmonella outbreak. The chain removed affected jalapeños.• Novo Nordisk: Novo raised its 2026 outlook, but ADRs fell as much as 5.7%, signaling investors wanted stronger relief from GLP-1 pressure.
Oil reverses lower after Bessent says a Hormuz deal may come within two days
Hormuz optimism pressured energy prices, while strong industrial earnings contrasted with weaker streaming guidance.• Hormuz/Oil: Brent fell 2.4%, reversing earlier gains, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come today or tomorrow. No agreement was confirmed; a cargo ship was struck near Oman, and Gulf oil flows remain at 36% of prewar levels.• Caterpillar: Shares jumped 9.3% premarket after adjusted earnings of $8.17 a share beat $6.22 expected. Revenue rose 24% to a record $20.54 billion.• ADM: The crop trader raised adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.60 from $4.15-$4.70 as biofuel demand strengthened; quarterly EPS also beat estimates.• Spotify: Shares fell more than 5% after third-quarter user and operating-income guidance missed expectations, despite premium subscribers reaching 300 million.
Prologis agrees $18.8 billion Segro takeover as BP profit more than doubles
Major corporate deals and strong European earnings supported risk appetite, while constrained Hormuz traffic kept energy risk elevated.• Prologis/Segro: Prologis agreed to buy Segro for £14 billion ($18.8 billion), mostly in stock, at a 39% premium.• BP: Second-quarter adjusted profit rose 144% to $5.73 billion, beating estimates; BP also started a sale process for Archaea Energy.• HSBC: Pretax profit climbed 60% to $10.1 billion, above consensus, prompting a new $1 billion buyback.• Hormuz: Kpler recorded only eight commodity-vessel crossings Monday, while one loaded tanker abandoned its exit after threats and nearby explosions.• Palantir: Shares jumped more than 15% premarket, extending the software company’s post-earnings rally.
Google builds $200 billion Anthropic financing network as Grab raises outlook
AI infrastructure financing and upbeat consumer-platform demand supported growth names, while proposed Indian tax relief contrasted with pressure on miners.• Google/Anthropic: Google has assembled about $200 billion of Anthropic infrastructure contracts, including more than $150 billion of tensor processors co-developed with Broadcom. Apollo and Blackstone backed an initial $35 billion vehicle; Google’s lease guarantees may create $44 billion of exposure.• Grab: Grab lifted 2026 adjusted Ebitda guidance to $720-$740 million and authorized another $750 million buyback after revenue rose 22%.• India/Electronics: India plans to seek approval to extend foreign electronics manufacturers’ tax exemptions through 2041 and add incentives for data centers; the proposals remain subject to parliament.• Iron Ore: Singapore futures touched a 13-month low of $92.85 a ton as weak Chinese demand and narrowing steel margins threatened higher-cost producers.
US stocks rally after manufacturing growth accelerates
US equities rallied into a record Dow close and a 2.1% Nasdaq gain, as stronger factory activity and company-specific catalysts reinforced risk appetite. Lower oil suggested easing supply fears, while after-hours earnings extended the positive tone.• Macro/Markets: July ISM manufacturing rose to 55.6, beating forecasts, and employment expanded for the first time in 33 months. The 10-year yield had fallen five basis points before the open.• Boeing: FAA certification of the 737 Max 7 lifted Boeing 6.1% and added support for industrials.• Integer/KKR: KKR agreed to buy Integer for $5.7 billion including debt, offering $127 a share.• Lantheus/Curium: Curium agreed to acquire Lantheus for about $8 billion through cash and a contingent value right.• Energy/Geopolitics: Heavy Hormuz shipping flows and Brent’s roughly 5% decline pointed to easing disruption, even as Iran denied US negotiations.• After Hours: Palantir jumped about 8% after raising guidance on 93% revenue growth, while Snap surged more than 12% on an outlook beat. Texas paused new ERCOT data-center connections pending audits.
Palantir raises outlook as Texas halts new data-center grid connections
After-hours earnings rewarded AI software and social media, while Texas introduced a fresh constraint on data-center expansion.• Palantir: Second-quarter revenue rose 93% to $1.94 billion versus $1.81 billion expected. Full-year guidance increased to $8.15-$8.16 billion versus $7.73 billion consensus; shares gained about 8% late.• Texas/Data Centers: Governor Greg Abbott halted new ERCOT data-center connections pending audits of grid dependence, water use and tax incentives.• Snap: Revenue rose 19% to $1.6 billion, and third-quarter guidance of up to $1.74 billion beat $1.70 billion expected. Shares jumped more than 12% after hours.• Williams/M&A: Williams agreed to buy Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5 billion, adding 4,000 pipeline miles linking Haynesville gas to Gulf Coast LNG.• Markets: The Dow closed at a record after gaining 1.3%; the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Magnificent Seven stocks added a record $1.77 trillion over three sessions.
US manufacturing hits strongest pace since 2022 as Boeing wins Max 7 certification
Strong factory data and Boeing’s certification supported cyclicals, while Tehran’s denial of US talks complicated hopes for a Hormuz deal.• Macro: July ISM manufacturing rose to 55.6 from 53.3, beating the 54 consensus; employment expanded for the first time in 33 months.• Boeing: The FAA certified the 737 Max 7 after nearly a decade of review. Boeing rose 6.1%, with 282 unfilled orders.• Iran/Oil: Iran denied US negotiations, contradicting Trump, but acknowledged progress with Oman. Brent remained about 5% lower near $84.• Amazon: Shares rose as much as 5.3%, taking the company’s valuation above $3 trillion for the first time.• Payments M&A: Visa agreed to buy fraud-detection platform BioCatch for $2.4 billion in cash.
KKR and Curium unveil $13.7 billion of take-private deals
Take-private activity led company news, while lower yields and earnings dispersion shaped the premarket setup.• Integer/KKR: KKR agreed to buy Integer for $127 a share, valuing the medical-device maker at $5.7 billion including debt.• Lantheus/Curium: Curium agreed to acquire Lantheus for about $8 billion, offering $102.50 upfront plus a $12 contingent right.• Rates: New York Fed President Williams said policy is well positioned and expects inflation to ease; 10-year Treasury yields fell five basis points to 4.68%.• Earnings: Tyson cut adjusted operating-profit guidance by $100 million as its beef-loss forecast widened; Marriott fell 3.4% premarket after revenue missed despite an EPS beat.• Defense: Northrop secured Pentagon framework agreements worth up to $3 billion for PAC-3 and THAAD components.• Pharma: AstraZeneca fell as much as 7.8% and Bristol rose up to 8.7%; neither company confirmed the reported merger talks.
Atkore agrees $3.8 billion sale as EchoStar unit files for bankruptcy
Corporate actions dominated, while stronger Gulf shipping flows offered another sign that regional energy disruption may be easing.• Atkore/Prysmian: Atkore accepted Prysmian’s $95-a-share cash offer, valuing the electrical-infrastructure manufacturer at $3.8 billion including debt, a 30% premium to Friday’s close.• EchoStar/Bankruptcy: Hughes Satellite Systems filed for Chapter 11 after lacking cash to repay $1.5 billion of August maturities.• Hormuz/Shipping: More than 8.4 million barrels left the Persian Gulf on Friday, among the highest daily flows since the war began; 34 commodity vessels crossed Hormuz from Friday through Sunday.• Sandoz/Legal: Sandoz agreed to pay $478.5 million to settle US generic-drug pricing litigation.• MUFG/Earnings: MUFG’s quarterly profit rose 48% to ¥809.4 billion, beating the ¥633.4 billion consensus, while the bank maintained its annual forecast.