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Stocks reach records after payrolls unexpectedly contract
Risk appetite strengthened across the week, with major indexes reaching records as resilient manufacturing and earnings momentum gave way to a weak-payrolls rally. Treasury yields whipsawed around hawkish Fed rhetoric and softer labor data, while renewed Hormuz attacks reversed oil’s early decline and restored an inflation risk premium.• Macro/Rates: July ISM manufacturing rose to 55.6 and employment expanded, but payrolls later fell 23,000. The jobs miss reduced hike odds, pulled yields and the dollar lower, and helped the S&P 500 finish at a record.• AI/Technology: Nvidia surged 12% on Friday, while Palantir extended its post-results rally and Shopify jumped on its outlook. Heavy capital spending and demanding expectations punished AMD, AppLovin and storage names, preserving sharp dispersion within growth.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent fell roughly 5% on hopes for a Hormuz agreement, then climbed above $84 after Iranian attacks and stalled negotiations. Energy shares recovered, but the renewed crude premium complicated the otherwise supportive rates backdrop.• Earnings/Industrials: Caterpillar gained 9.3% on record revenue, and Boeing rallied after Max 7 certification. Honeywell Aerospace sank about 20% after cutting guidance, while Eli Lilly, Atlassian and Airbnb advanced on stronger outlooks.• Deals/Policy: KKR agreed to buy Integer, Curium struck an $8 billion Lantheus deal, and solar stocks gained after Washington set tariffs and minimum import prices on polysilicon derivatives.
Brent tops $84 after Hormuz shipping accord stalls
Soft Chinese inflation and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz dispute set a cautious backdrop for cyclicals. US trade policy and semiconductor investment later drove the corporate rotation, while hawkish BOJ commentary failed to support the yen. Deteriorating private-credit metrics added a separate concern for financials.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose above $84 after Iran and Oman failed to finalize a shipping accord. Tehran continued to condition reopening the largely blocked strait on sanctions relief, asset releases and US force withdrawals, while Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery.• Trade/Solar: Trump ordered 15% tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon derivatives from December 4, benefiting domestic manufacturers such as First Solar but increasing costs for project developers.• Semiconductors: Sony and TSMC discussed a $6.4 billion Japanese image-sensor plant for robots and autos. Apple separately tested CXMT memory for China-sold devices, raising competitive concerns for Micron.• Private Credit: Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl and Golub posted their highest default rates since at least 2021. Earlier redemption requests at Blackstone and HPS vehicles exceeded normal quarterly repurchase caps.
Sony and TSMC discuss $6.4 billion chip plant as BOJ flags faster hikes
Chip investment and Japanese policy signals led Asian trading, while oil and private-credit risks stayed elevated.• Semiconductors: Sony and TSMC are discussing a ¥1 trillion ($6.4 billion) Japanese image-sensor plant for robots and cars, with production targeted for 2029. The companies have not confirmed the private talks.• BOJ/Yen: One BOJ member said hikes could outpace expectations as underlying inflation nears 2%. JGB yields rose 1 basis point, but the yen weakened beyond 158 per dollar as July’s intervention boost faded.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose above $84 as Iran and Oman failed to finalize a shipping accord. Houthi militants separately claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery.• Private Credit: Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl and Golub reported their highest default rates since at least 2021. Blue Owl reached 2.8%, while several managers expanded watchlists.
US broadens solar tariffs as Apple weighs Chinese memory chips
Trade policy favored US solar manufacturers, while China’s capital-market push sharpened competitive pressure in memory chips. Barrick faced a separate governance challenge.• Solar Tariffs: Trump ordered 15% tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon derivatives from Dec. 4, supporting domestic producers but raising developers’ costs.• Apple/Memory: Apple is testing CXMT chips and held preliminary supply talks for China-sold devices, according to people familiar with the matter; White House approval and potential redesigns remain hurdles.• China Tech: CXMT raised about $9.8 billion in an expedited IPO and surged 466% on debut as Beijing mobilizes its $28 trillion capital markets for strategic technology.• Barrick: Investors including Van Eck, Mackenzie and Franklin opposed a North American-assets IPO, citing dilution of up to 15%; Mackenzie called for Chairman John Thornton’s departure.
China inflation cools as Iran sets conditions for Hormuz reopening
China demand signals softened while Hormuz reopening remained conditional, clouding the backdrop for cyclicals and Asia-linked assets.• China Inflation: Consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% in July, while producer-price growth eased to 3.5%; both readings missed forecasts.• Hormuz: Iran demanded sanctions relief, frozen-asset releases and US force withdrawals before reopening the strait, which remains largely blocked.• China Weather: Typhoon Dolphin forced Shanghai’s airports to cancel 1,384 flights and prompted nearby ports to halt operations.• Autos: US hybrid sales rose nearly 20% in July, led by Hyundai, Toyota and Honda, while overall vehicle sales fell 1.5%.• Private Credit: Redemption requests reached 13% at HPS’s Hlend and 10% at Blackstone’s Bcred, exceeding their typical quarterly repurchase caps.
Berkshire deploys cash amid another Iranian strike on UAE shipping
Weekend news centered on Berkshire’s aggressive capital deployment and renewed Gulf shipping risk, supporting megacap technology sentiment while preserving an oil-risk premium. Deteriorating crypto conditions, new semiconductor-equipment competition and banks’ gains against private credit added narrower cross-sector pressure.• Berkshire/Alphabet: Berkshire invested a net $19.8 billion in equities, including $10 billion in Alphabet, repurchased $4.5 billion of stock and reported a 16.3% rise in operating earnings.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran struck a fourth Emirati vessel this week without causing casualties. Temporary shipping lanes remained short of a full reopening, and stalled talks kept upside risk around oil.• Crypto/Media: Trump Media and Crypto.com scrapped their CRO treasury and Truth Social prediction-market plans after market conditions worsened, pressuring DJT’s risk profile.• Semis/AI: Situational Awareness added $400 million to Source Foundry, which is developing cheaper chipmaking equipment and software that could challenge ASML.• Private Credit: Banks reclaimed $9.2 billion of loans from private credit through mid-July as borrowers sought cheaper syndicated financing, a negative read-through for alternative-asset lenders.
Berkshire deploys cash as Iran attacks another UAE tanker
Capital deployment at Berkshire and another Hormuz strike led weekend risk, while Washington advanced temporary funding and banks reclaimed leveraged loans from private credit.• Berkshire: Berkshire invested a net $19.8 billion in equities, including $10 billion in Alphabet, and repurchased $4.5 billion of stock. Operating earnings rose 16.3%.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran struck a fourth Emirati vessel this week without causing casualties. Tehran said temporary shipping lanes were close, but not a full reopening; mediators said talks had stalled.• US Fiscal: The Senate passed a stopgap funding bill 90-6 through Dec. 11, excluding Trump’s requested Iran war funding. The House returns Aug. 31.• Private Credit: Banks captured $9.2 billion of loans from private credit through mid-July, as borrowers sought cheaper syndicated financing.
Source Foundry lands $400 million bet as Trump Media scraps Crypto.com deals
AI-capex, crypto de-risking and China listing maneuvering drove the new flow, while Australian iron-ore labor action and a big Trip.com fine added separate pressure points.• Semis: Situational Awareness added $400 million to Source Foundry, taking total backing to $500 million.• AI Tools: The startup wants cheaper chipmaking gear and software, putting ASML in its sights.• Crypto/Media: Trump Media and Crypto.com scrapped CRO treasury and Truth Social prediction-market plans after market conditions worsened.• China IPO: Moonshot converted its China unit into a joint-stock company and added state-backed investors for a Hong Kong listing bid.• Bulk/Travel: BHP workers began 24-hour strikes at Port Hedland, and Trip.com was fined Rmb5.18 billion for abusing market power.
S&P 500 closes at record after US payrolls unexpectedly contract
Weak payrolls reversed the premarket tightening setup, pulling Treasury yields and the dollar lower while equities advanced to a record close. AI enthusiasm led the rally, but Gulf shipping attacks and political pressure on the Fed kept policy risks elevated.• Jobs/Rates: July payrolls fell 23,000 versus an 80,000 gain expected, wage growth slowed and participation declined. September hike odds dropped to about 43%, while two- and 10-year yields fell.• Equities/AI: The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to a record and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%. NVDA surged 12%, adding $562 billion in market value.• Oil/Shipping: Attacks hit three Adnoc vessels, while Kharg Island showed no tanker loadings since July 31. Brent nevertheless held near $83.75 as talks continued.• Fed Independence: Trump renewed his effort to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who denied the mortgage allegations and planned to fight.• After-Hours Regulation: China fined TCOM $770 million for abusing its market position and ordered changes to hotel terms.• After-Hours Deals: DJT and Crypto.com abandoned their token-treasury, prediction-market and ETF plans, citing market conditions.
S&P 500 closes at record as Trump renews bid to remove Fed Governor Cook
Risk appetite strengthened into the close, but renewed pressure on Fed independence and tougher sanctions powers added policy risk.• Markets/Chips: The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to a record, the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, and NVDA jumped 12%, adding $562 billion.• Fed Independence: Trump gave Governor Lisa Cook until Aug. 26 to answer mortgage allegations while considering her removal. Cook denies wrongdoing and plans to fight.• Russia Sanctions: The Senate voted 86-11 to authorize 100% tariffs on major buyers of Russian energy. House approval is still required, and presidential waivers remain.• SpaceX: SPCX’s gain accelerated to 16%, lifting its two-day advance to 23% and bringing shares near the $135 IPO price despite lockup expiration.• Defense: The Army plans to buy at least $400 million of AVAV’s AI-assisted anti-drone lasers.• AI Safety: OpenAI paused Astra work that lacked stricter safeguards after warning the model could reach critical autonomous cyber capabilities.
Dollar hits lowest since May as Adnoc confirms attacks on three vessels
Risk assets advanced as weak labor data reduced near-term tightening expectations, but fresh shipping attacks kept geopolitical inflation risk elevated.• Markets/Rates: US stocks rose, while the dollar index fell as much as 0.5%. Two- and 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.16% and 4.62%, and September hike odds fell to about 43%.• Hormuz/Oil: Adnoc said missiles and drones hit three vessels this week, bringing attacks on its ships to 15, with one death and 20 injuries. Brent traded near $83.75.• SpaceX: SPCX jumped 12%, extending Thursday’s rebound, though it remained below its IPO price.• Ukraine/Grains: Ukraine forecast agricultural exports would fall 54%, including a 53% drop in wheat shipments, after Russian strikes disrupted Odesa ports.
Treasury yields fall after US payrolls unexpectedly contract
The payroll shock pulled yields lower without derailing futures, while weak consumer guidance and constrained Iranian supply shaped premarket risk.• US Jobs: Payrolls fell 23,000 in July versus 80,000 expected. Unemployment dipped to 4.1% as participation declined, while wage growth slowed to 0.1%. Treasury yields fell and stock futures remained higher.• Iran/Oil: Shipping data showed no tanker loading at Kharg Island since July 31. The terminal handles about 90% of Iranian crude exports, though Brent slipped toward $82 amid continuing talks.• Restaurants: Wendy’s withdrew its 2026 outlook and halved its quarterly dividend to 7 cents after comparable sales missed estimates.• Apparel: Under Armour forecast a mid-single-digit annual sales decline as demand weakened across several regions.• Housing M&A: Dream Finders agreed to buy Beazer for $33.50 a share in cash, valuing its equity at about $915 million.
SK Hynix plans $38 billion expansion as global food prices hit three-year high
AI investment and food inflation risks dominated, while rate markets focused on Friday’s payrolls report.• Semiconductors: SK Hynix plans a 54 trillion won ($38 billion) expansion of Korean fabs in response to AI-driven memory demand.• Food/Inflation: The FAO food-price index rose 0.6% in July to a three-year high, led by grains, sugar and vegetable oils.• Rates: Swaps priced a greater-than-50% chance of a September Fed hike ahead of payrolls, with economists expecting 80,000 jobs.• Atlassian: CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes pledged to buy $250 million of TEAM shares, citing confidence in the company’s AI strategy.• China/Oil: Crude imports rebounded 22% from June to 8.45 million barrels a day, but remained below the year-earlier pace.