Apr 21, 2026

Tesla reverses after Musk sets $25 billion capex plan

After-hours focus shifted to Tesla’s heavier spending roadmap, while AI memory demand and fuel pressure added separate cross-sector signals.• Tesla: TSLA swung from a 4.4% postmarket gain to negative after Musk and CFO Vaibhav Taneja said 2026 capex will exceed $25 billion, up from about $20 billion planned previously; the stock was down about 2.5% near the call’s end.• Tesla/Intel: Musk said Tesla will spend about $3 billion on a Giga Texas research chip fab and plans to use Intel’s 14A technology; INTC rose more than 3% on the call headline.• Airlines: Southwest said full-year profit guidance is at risk if fuel prices do not fall; LUV dropped about 3.7%-4.5% after hours.• Semis/Macro: SK Hynix beat estimates on AI chip sales and memory pricing, while South Korea GDP rose 1.7%, above all forecasts.

Tesla rises after earnings beat

Earnings took the after-hours lead, while Washington signaled tolerance for Iran’s latest ship seizures and US equities closed at a record despite oil above $100.• Tesla: TSLA rose more than 3% after adjusted EPS of 41 cents beat the 34-cent estimate and revenue reached $22.4 billion; Tesla also said Model S/X lines will be replaced by first-generation Optimus production in Fremont.• Iran/Energy: The White House said Iran’s seizure of international vessels was not a cease-fire violation; Centcom said 31 vessels were directed to comply with the blockade and only one ignored warnings.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to a fresh record, while front-month Brent gained 3.5% to $101.91.• Chips/Software: TXN guided Q2 revenue to $5.0 billion-$5.4 billion above consensus; NOW fell about 13% after Middle East deal delays.• Credit Scores: FICO fell as much as 16% after US housing agencies moved to implement new mortgage credit-score models.

Spirit surges after US rescue package nears

Single-name moves led the tape, with federal support talk squeezing Spirit and AI/power demand lifting cyclicals. Iran risk stayed active through diplomacy and dollar-funding channels rather than a fresh oil-price breakout.• Airlines: Spirit Aviation shares more than doubled after reports the Trump administration is nearing, but has not finalized, up to $500 million of financing for warrants.• Semis/Power: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose as much as 1.9%, on track for a 16th straight gain; GE Vernova jumped as much as 15.2% after data-center/grid orders surged to $2.4 billion.• Iran/Diplomacy: US officials said Trump will give Iran only a few days to offer a peace plan, while mediators target possible Friday talks; Bessent said Gulf and Asian allies requested swap lines.• Cannabis: Bloomberg reported DOJ could move marijuana to Schedule III as soon as Wednesday; MSOS and TLRY were indicated higher.• Private Credit: Blackstone and KKR are restructuring Affordable Care’s $1.4 billion loan; BCRED marked its position at 69.8 cents.

Iran attacks third Hormuz ship while US futures rise

US futures stayed higher even as shipping risk worsened in Hormuz, while earnings and AI announcements added stock-specific support before the open.• Iran/Shipping: People familiar said Iran’s IRGC fired on a third ship, the Euphoria, after attacks involving Francesca and Epaminondas; UKMTO has logged 22 regional vessel-attack reports since the war began.• Markets/Energy: S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.8% at 8:02 ET; Brent traded near $99, below the earlier $100 spike but still elevated.• Iran/Contradictions: Greece denied Iran’s claim that the Greek-owned Epaminondas was seized, while Iranian officials said the US blockade required a military response.• Tech/AI: Google unveiled TPU 8t and 8i chips, new enterprise AI agents and a $750 million consultant-adoption fund.• Earnings: Boeing rose after cash burn beat estimates; AT&T and Elevance also topped expectations.

Brent hits $100 after Iranian ship attacks escalate

Shipping risk re-escalated around Hormuz, pushing crude back to a key level and pressuring fuel-sensitive sectors, while single-name legal and regulatory items added separate catalysts.• Iran/Shipping: UKMTO said two cargo ships were fired on near Iran/Oman; one bridge was heavily damaged and another stopped in the water. Iranian media said the IRGC seized the MSC Francesca and Greek-owned Epaminondas; crew were reported safe.• Oil/Airlines: Brent rose 1.4% to touch $100 after the vessel reports. Lufthansa said it will cut 20,000 short-haul flights through October, citing a doubling in jet fuel prices, and Finnair warned on fuel availability.• Software/Antitrust: Microsoft must face a UK cloud-licensing class action covering about 59,000 organizations; claimants estimate potential damages above £1.7 billion.• Banks/Capital: UBS rose after Tippinpoint reported Switzerland will soften parts of planned capital rules, though foreign-activity CET1 backing may remain.

Virginia map passes as Iran talks stall

Political risk and Iran diplomacy dominated late news, with US futures firmer but oil still pinned near recent highs.• Politics: Virginia voters approved a Democratic congressional map that could add as many as four House seats, while Republicans said litigation will continue.• Iran/Energy: Vance indefinitely canceled the Islamabad trip; IRGC-linked Tasnim said Iranian officials will not attend Wednesday talks, and Trump said ending the blockade would prevent a deal.• Markets: S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% in Asian trading, while Brent was flat at $98.46 and the 10-year yield held near 4.29%.• Energy Policy: The White House is considering renewing a Jones Act waiver that has helped move about 9 million barrels of US oil.• Apple: Bloomberg reported incoming CEO John Ternus faces retention pressure after senior departures and near-exits.

Futures rise after Trump extends Iran cease-fire

Risk stabilized after Trump extended the Iran cease-fire indefinitely, but the blockade/Hormuz standoff kept the energy tail risk alive.• Iran/Markets: S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% after Trump said he would hold off on new strikes until talks conclude, while keeping the US blockade in place; WTI stayed above $90 after a two-day gain.• Iran/Blockade: IRGC-linked Tasnim said Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade continues and could break the blockade by force if needed.• Airlines: United cut its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $7-$11 from $12-$14, citing higher fuel costs; Delta withheld guidance and Alaska had already pulled its outlook.• Software: Adobe authorized a new $25 billion buyback, lifting shares about 2% after hours.• Credit/Consumer: Capital One fell 3.5% late after provisions jumped 72% to $4.07 billion and EPS missed estimates.

Oil nears $100 after Vance pauses Pakistan trip

Oil and risk assets weakened as Iran talks looked less certain, while Fed reform, autos and telecom M&A added separate equity catalysts.• Iran/Oil: Vance paused his Pakistan trip after Iran failed to commit to talks; Brent rose 4.4% toward $100 and the S&P 500 fell 0.6%.• Blockade/Sanctions: Vortexa said 34 Iran-linked tankers have bypassed the US blockade, up from 26 reported earlier; Iran’s foreign minister called the blockade an “act of war,” and Treasury sanctioned 14 weapons-linked targets.• Fed/Operations: Waller proposed centralizing Fed support functions or consolidating them into lower-cost operations centers, aligning with the broader reform push.• Autos: Tesla’s California registrations fell 24% in Q1 as hybrids reached about 21% share and zero-emission vehicles slipped below 14%.• Telecom: Deutsche Telekom is weighing a full combination with T-Mobile US through a new holding company, Bloomberg reported.

Yields climb as Iran talks stall

Rates led the tape as Warsh’s hearing leaned hawkish and Gulf diplomacy looked less certain, reversing early equity strength and lifting oil.• Fed/Rates: The 10-year yield rose to about 4.29%-4.30% after Kevin Warsh called for a new inflation framework, less forward guidance and a smaller Fed balance sheet, while denying he promised Trump rate cuts.• Iran/Energy: WTI rose 2.8% to $92.13 and Brent topped $96 as Pakistan said Iran had not formally agreed to attend talks and Vance’s Pakistan departure was delayed.• Shipping/Blockade: CENTCOM said US forces have directed 28 vessels to turn around or return to port since the Iran blockade began April 13.• Energy Services: HAL gained 4% after Halliburton said higher crude is lifting US spot-work inquiries and net income more than doubled.

Retail sales surge as US boards Iran-linked tanker

US data and earnings supported risk appetite, while Washington broadened Iran maritime enforcement and Fed politics remained a rates overhang.• Macro/Retail: March retail sales rose 1.7% after a revised 0.7% February gain; gasoline receipts jumped 15.5%, but sales excluding gas still rose 0.6%.• Iran/Energy: US forces boarded the sanctioned M/T Tifani in the Indo-Pacific, the first Iran-linked vessel targeted outside the Middle East in the war-related crackdown; the Pentagon said the action ended without incident.• Markets: S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, Brent fell 0.4% to about $89 and the VIX held near 19.• Fed/Policy: Trump said he would be disappointed if Kevin Warsh did not cut rates quickly and avoided committing to drop the DOJ probe of Powell.• Industrials/Defense: GE beat estimates, while RTX raised 2026 profit and sales guidance.

Trump extends Iran cease-fire while Iran-linked ships evade blockade

Risk tone was steadier but Gulf shipping and talks remained unresolved, while AI demand and health-care earnings added positive equity offsets.• Iran/Energy: Trump extended the Iran cease-fire at Pakistan’s request, but kept the US blockade on Iranian port traffic; Iranian state TV said no delegation had yet left for Pakistan.• Shipping/Oil: WSJ, citing Lloyd’s List and brokers, said at least 26 Iran-linked laden ships have crossed the blockade since April 13, contradicting CENTCOM’s claim that sea trade was completely halted.• Semis/AI: Taiwan export orders jumped 65.9% in March, the fastest since 2010 and above the 44.1% estimate, on AI, HPC and cloud demand.• Health Care: UnitedHealth rose 7% after earnings beat expectations and the company raised its profit forecast.• Banks/Regulation: Barclays faces a UK section 166 review of governance around significant risk-transfer deals.

Oil slips after Xi calls for normal Hormuz passage

Oil eased and equity futures firmed despite unresolved Gulf risk, helped by China’s clearest public push yet to reopen Hormuz. Corporate flow added a large foodservice deal and fresh private-AI capital commitments.• Energy/Geopolitics: Xi Jinping called for normal Hormuz passage in a call with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince; NYT said it was his first such request. Three vessels appeared to test the strait, but roughly 800 ships remained stuck.• Markets: Brent slipped 0.4% to $95.12, WTI fell 0.9% to $86.64, S&P futures rose 0.1%, the dollar edged up and 10-year yields held near 4.25%.• M&A/Foodservice: Sysco agreed to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29 billion, adding 166 warehouse stores serving restaurants and grocers.• AI/Capital: FT said Bezos’s Project Prometheus is near a $10 billion round at a $38 billion value, with JPMorgan and BlackRock among investors; it is not finalized.

Oil slips after Iran plans to attend Pakistan talks

Risk tone improved modestly in evening trading as reports of an Iranian delegation heading to Pakistan cut the oil bid, though Tehran’s public rhetoric remained hostile. Apple’s succession plan and fresh AI-cloud spending drove single-name focus.• Geopolitics/Energy: WTI June fell as much as 2.2% to about $86 and S&P 500 futures edged higher after people familiar said Iran is sending a team to Islamabad; Ghalibaf separately said Iran rejects talks under threats and has “new cards” for the battlefield.• Apple: AAPL slipped about 0.8% after hours after Apple named hardware chief John Ternus CEO effective Sept. 1, with Tim Cook becoming executive chairman.• AI/Cloud: Amazon said it will invest another $5 billion in Anthropic, potentially rising to $20 billion, while Anthropic plans more than $100 billion of AWS and chip spending over 10 years.• Airlines/Defense: Alaska Air suspended 2026 guidance on fuel costs; the Air Force canceled RTX’s delayed GPS ground-control program.

Oil settles higher after US seizure complicates Iran talks

Oil risk stayed the main macro driver, while Washington added direct support for energy supply and several idiosyncratic equity stories moved.• Oil/Iran: Brent settled up 5.6% at $95.48 and WTI rose 6.9% to $89.61 after the Touska seizure weighed on peace-deal hopes; Citi said a further month of Hormuz disruption could send oil to $110.• Iran Talks: WSJ said Iran told mediators it would send a team to Islamabad Tuesday, but Tehran has not publicly confirmed; Foreign Minister Araghchi called U.S. threats against Iranian commercial ships a ceasefire violation.• Energy Policy: Trump signed five Defense Production Act determinations to fund coal, LNG, petroleum and grid projects.• Airlines: Spirit has floated giving the U.S. government an equity stake to avoid possible liquidation, according to people familiar.• Single Names: Fermi fell about 20% after its CEO and CFO departed; unsealed filings alleged Amazon coerced suppliers to raise rival-site prices.

Oil stays bid after Trump says Hormuz will remain blocked

Geopolitical risk re-accelerated as Trump hardened his stance on Hormuz, while deal news and regulatory/legal catalysts drove several single-name moves.• Iran/Oil: Trump said it is “highly unlikely” he would extend the Iran ceasefire without a deal and said Hormuz will stay blocked until an agreement is signed.• Iran Talks: Trump first said Vance was en route to Pakistan, but U.S. officials told NYT he is expected to leave Tuesday; Iranian officials said Ghalibaf plans to attend if Vance does.• Energy/Shipping: Kuwait declared force majeure on crude and refined-product shipments, and Kpler counted only five Hormuz crossings Monday.• Biopharma: LLY agreed to buy Kelonia for $3.25bn upfront and up to $7bn including milestones.• Banks: The Supreme Court let a muni-bond price-fixing class action proceed against BAC, JPM and other banks, with $12bn sought.

US futures slip after Iran threatens retaliation over ship seizure

Risk stayed pressured by fresh Iranian threats and more evidence that Hormuz traffic remains constrained, while premarket single-name moves centered on satellite and AI-chip news.• Hormuz/Security: Iran’s military said it would take “necessary” action against U.S. forces once civilians on the seized Touska were safe; China said the seizure could impede settlement.• Shipping/Energy: FT counted only two ships exiting Hormuz in 24 hours and said a CMA CGM container ship had been hit by IRGC fire; the EU is preparing jet-fuel distribution measures.• Trade/Policy: The Trump administration began accepting claims to refund more than $166bn in tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court; FedEx and Costco were among companies that had sued.• Premarket/Tech: ASTS fell 14% after Blue Origin put its BlueBird satellite in the wrong orbit, while MRVL rose 8% on a report it is in talks with Google on AI inference chips.

Stocks and bonds weaken after Trump threatens Iran infrastructure

Risk tone deteriorated into Europe as Washington raised the stakes with Tehran, though Asian chip-led buying limited the global equity damage.• Markets/Rates: The Stoxx 600 opened down 1%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%, and the 10-year yield rose 3 bp to 4.27%; Brent held near $95, up more than 5%.• Iran Talks: Trump threatened to hit every Iranian power plant and bridge if Tehran rejects a deal. NYT said Vance is expected to leave for Islamabad Tuesday, while Iranian officials said Ghalibaf would attend if Vance does; Pakistan is deploying thousands of security personnel.• Shipping/Energy: The U.S. Navy said it has turned back 27 ships; India widened approved Russian maritime insurers to protect oil flows, and Singapore is buying more non-Middle East LNG.• Credit: Bloomberg said private-credit panic eased after GS, BLK and MS inflows, but OWL capped withdrawals in two retail funds.