Apr 24, 2026

Trump evacuated after shooting at press dinner

Political-risk and energy headlines dominated late Saturday, with a security incident involving Trump adding event risk while the Hormuz blockade showed further operational strain.• Politics/Security: Trump and Vance were evacuated from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner after shots were fired; Trump said one officer was shot but protected by a vest, and officials said the suspect was in custody and facing felony charges.• Hormuz/Oil: CENTCOM said US forces intercepted the sanctioned Sevan and ordered it back to Iran under escort; officials now say 37 ships have been redirected since the blockade began.• Shipping/Energy: Bloomberg reported Hormuz transits are near zero versus about 135 daily in peacetime; Goldman said Gulf crude output is 57% below prewar levels.• China/EU: Beijing warned it would take necessary measures after the EU added Chinese entities to its latest Russia sanctions package.

Trump cancels Iran-talks trip as Israel orders Hezbollah strikes

Geopolitical risk worsened after diplomacy shifted from planned in-person talks to an uncertain call option, while energy-sensitive sectors faced fresh cost pressure.• Iran/Diplomacy: Trump canceled Kushner and Witkoff’s planned Pakistan trip, saying Iran can call; Araghchi said he shared a framework to end the war but questioned US seriousness.• Hormuz/Oil: CENTCOM said the USS Rafael Peralta stopped an Iranian-flagged tanker and that US forces redirected 34 vessels; Iran’s armed-forces command threatened a response if the blockade continues.• Lebanon: Netanyahu ordered “powerful strikes” on Hezbollah targets, and Lebanese state media reported four deaths across expanding Israeli attacks, putting the cease-fire extension in doubt.• Airlines/Crypto: American said extra fuel costs could reach $4B this year; Bitcoin neared $80,000 as ETFs drew about $2B in a month and Strategy bought $3.9B.

Iran resumes flights while diplomat says Tehran is open to US talks

Geopolitical risk showed tentative de-escalation in aviation and diplomacy, but cease-fire strains, chip-policy friction and weaker European data kept the macro read mixed.• Iran/Diplomacy: Iran resumed international commercial flights from Tehran for the first time since the war began; a senior diplomat said Tehran is open to US talks but will not give up domestic uranium enrichment.• Middle East: Israel said it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon that were loaded for immediate use, testing the cease-fire extension Trump announced Thursday.• Semis/China: China warned that US House export-control bills targeting semiconductors could disrupt supply chains and said it would take necessary steps if the bills pass.• Europe/Macro: Euro-area business activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time since late 2024, led by services, while UK inflation rose to 3.3%.

Oracle financing closes as chip rally extends record streak

Risk appetite stayed concentrated in AI infrastructure, with credit demand for data centers and chip momentum offsetting still-uncertain Iran diplomacy.• AI/Credit: Oracle’s $16 billion Michigan data-center financing closed; Bank of America sold $14 billion of 2045 private bonds at a 7.5% coupon, with Pimco buying about $10 billion.• Semis: The PHLX Semiconductor Index posted its 18th straight gain, its longest streak on record; AMD rose 14% and topped $500 billion in market value, while MaxLinear jumped 76%.• Airlines/Policy: The White House is considering using the Defense Production Act for a Spirit bailout, though officials called unannounced details speculative.• Iran/Oil: Iran again said no US meeting is planned in Islamabad; Brent settled up 0.2% at $105.19 after earlier touching $107.• AI/Legal: Musk dropped fraud claims against OpenAI and Altman, narrowing the trial to unjust enrichment and charitable-trust claims.

Nasdaq hits record as Iran denies plans for US talks

Tech strength outweighed war anxiety into the close, while the Pakistan diplomacy track became more contested and Washington escalated financial pressure on Iran’s oil buyers.• Markets/Tech: Nasdaq rose 1.6% to a record, the S&P 500 gained 0.8% to a record, Intel surged 24% for its biggest gain in 38 years, and Nvidia rose 4.3% to $208.26, its first record close since October.• Iran/Diplomacy: Iranian state media said Abbas Araghchi did not request talks with US officials in Islamabad, contradicting White House comments that Witkoff and Kushner would travel for talks with Iranian representatives.• Oil/Sanctions: The US sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical, China’s second-largest teapot refiner, and about 40 ships and firms over alleged Iran oil links.• Pharma: Lilly fell nearly 4% after Foundayo’s second-week US prescriptions trailed expectations, while Novo Nordisk ADRs rose nearly 6%.

Treasuries gain after DOJ drops Powell probe

Rates and policy headlines competed with worsening consumer data and fresh single-stock moves; diplomacy remained unresolved rather than confirmed.• Fed/Rates: DOJ ended its criminal probe into Powell/Fed renovation costs, shifting review to the IG; two-year yields fell as much as 5 bp to 3.78%, and Kalshi put Warsh confirmation by May 15 at about 70%.• Macro/Consumer: Final April Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 49.8, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and 5-to-10-year expectations to 3.5%.• Iran/Diplomacy: WSJ reported Araghchi will meet Pakistani officials but has no US mediator meeting scheduled; Pakistan may relay messages, contradicting earlier expectations for direct talks.• Tech/AI: Google plans up to $40B in Anthropic at a $350B valuation and will provide 5GW of cloud capacity over five years.• Telecom: CHTR fell 23%, its worst drop since listing, after losing 117,000 residential internet customers and missing EPS estimates.

Oil reverses lower after Pakistan officials say US-Iran talks are expected

Geopolitics still drove the tape, but oil gave back a spike after Pakistan signaled renewed talks while the Pentagon described a broader blockade.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent rose to $107.48, then fell as much as 1.6% to $103.41 after Pakistani officials said a second round of US-Iran talks was expected.• Hormuz/Military: Hegseth said 34 merchant vessels had been turned around, another carrier group was joining, and the blockade would last as long as Trump decides; Gen. Caine said tanker seizures will continue.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg’s economist survey lifted Q2 PCE inflation to 3.6% from 3.3% and now sees only one Fed cut this year.• Tech/AI: INTC gained about 27% premarket after guidance, while AMZN and META announced a multiyear AI chip-rental deal.• Consumer: PG rose after 3% organic sales growth, though management said the US consumer remains muted.

Oil risk stays elevated after Goldman says Gulf supply is down 57%

Energy inflation risk dominated: fresh estimates pointed to deep Gulf supply losses and a longer gas squeeze, while AI headlines added competition and financing risk.• Oil/Supply: Goldman estimated Persian Gulf oil output is running 14.5 million barrels a day, or 57%, below pre-war levels and said any restart would take months after a safe Hormuz reopening.• Diplomacy: NYT said Kushner and Witkoff will travel to Pakistan Saturday to meet Iranian officials; Iran’s foreign minister reportedly plans a written response to a US peace proposal.• Gas/Europe: IEA said the LNG glut is delayed at least two years; Europe begins banning spot Russian LNG Saturday, removing 2.8 million-3.5 million tons a year.• AI/Tech: DeepSeek launched V4 Flash/Pro with a million-token window; WSJ said Oracle’s OpenAI data-center debt is testing lender appetite.• Ags: Hard red winter wheat hit its highest since June 2024 as drought reached 70% of the production area.

Brent rises in Asia as TSMC jumps on Taiwan fund-rule easing

Oil kept a geopolitical bid in Asia, while Taiwan policy changes drove a chip-led outlier rally and fresh data points showed the Iran shock spreading into inflation, defense replenishment and staffing assumptions.• Oil/Markets: Brent gained 1.1% to $106.17 in Asian trading as the US enforced its blockade; Hang Seng and CSI 300 fell 0.7%, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%.• Semis/Taiwan: TSMC rose as much as 4.8% to a record after Taiwan moved to ease single-stock fund caps; JPMorgan estimated more than $6 billion of possible inflows.• Defense: NYT said the US has used about 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles, more than 1,000 Tomahawks and 1,200-plus Patriot interceptors in the Iran war, raising replenishment stakes.• Inflation/China: Chinese exporters began lifting prices on oil-linked costs; Bloomberg Economics said above-3% inflation in major economies is “back in play” for 2026.• Staffing/Autos: Robert Half guided to 1%-3% Q3 adjusted revenue growth, its first since 2022; BYD’s average China discount hit a record 10% in March.

Oil settles higher after third US carrier reaches Middle East

Risk stayed geopolitically driven, but after-hours focus shifted to chip earnings and large-cap cost cuts.• Hormuz/Oil: WTI settled 3.1% higher at $95.85 and Brent at $105.07 after the USS George H.W. Bush reached the region, putting three US carriers in Centcom waters; the S&P 500 closed down 0.4%.• Middle East: Trump said the US would not use a nuclear weapon on Iran and separately said Israel and Lebanon extended their cease-fire by three weeks.• Semis: INTC rose about 14% late after Q1 revenue beat at $13.6 billion and June-quarter revenue guidance of $13.8 billion-$14.8 billion topped estimates.• Tech Labor: META plans to cut 10% of staff, about 8,000 jobs, and leave 6,000 open roles unfilled to offset AI spending.• Industrials/Travel: FCX cut five-year Grasberg copper and gold output forecasts by 9% and 7%; Trump said he is considering a US purchase of Spirit.

Oil firms after Israel says it awaits US nod to attack Iran

Risk tone was stable but fragile: hotter activity data limited bond reactions, while Hormuz shipping remained effectively frozen and company-specific moves widened.• Hormuz/Israel: Israel’s defense minister said the military was waiting for a US green light for a “lethal” attack on Iran’s leadership and energy infrastructure.• Shipping/Energy: WSJ said none of the top 10 tanker and container owners was accepting Hormuz cargo; Hapag-Lloyd said lines were in “waiting mode” and saw no exit option.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US composite PMI rose to 52, and output prices hit the highest since mid-2022; the 10-year yield stayed in a 16-bp April range, the tightest since 2020.• Tech: Microsoft offered voluntary retirement to about 7% of US workers, its largest buyout program of that scale, according to Bloomberg.• Consumer/Biotech: LULU fell more than 12% after naming ex-Nike executive Heidi O’Neill CEO; Regeneron rose after agreeing to lower some drug prices and winning a rare-deafness gene-therapy nod.

Oil firms after Trump orders Navy to shoot mine-laying boats

US risk appetite softened into the open as Trump escalated Hormuz rules of engagement, while earnings were mixed and cannabis drew a policy-driven bid.• Hormuz/Oil: Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” boats placing mines in the strait and said minesweeping would triple; NYT noted mining has not been confirmed. S&P and Nasdaq futures fell 0.3%, while Brent rose 0.5% to $102.44.• Cannabis: DOJ moved state-licensed marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III; Tilray rose as much as 13% premarket and pot stocks broadly jumped.• Earnings: Comcast beat with revenue of $31.5 billion and broadband losses of 65,000 versus nearly 170,000 expected; Honeywell missed sales at $9.1 billion.• Airlines/Defense: American’s Q1 loss narrowed but it flagged more than $4 billion of added fuel costs; Lockheed fell after negative $291 million FCF.

Oil hits two-week high after US intercepts Iranian tankers

Energy risk intensified, European growth data weakened, and several large-cap equity stories added stock-specific pressure before the US open.• Energy/Shipping: Brent rose as high as $106 before easing to $104 after Centcom said US forces intercepted Iranian tankers Hedy and Hero II; the Dorena was being escorted by a US destroyer.• Energy/Supply: IEA chief Fatih Birol called the disruption the largest energy crisis in history, citing 13 million barrels a day of oil and 100 bcm of gas lost.• Macro/Europe: Euro-zone composite PMI unexpectedly fell to 48.6, with Germany at 48.3 and France at 47.6; economists said the data could reduce odds of an ECB hike next week.• Tesla: TSLA fell premarket as investors focused on $25 billion of planned capex and expected negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026.• Telecom: Deutsche Telekom is exploring an early-stage combination with T-Mobile US, which analysts said could be negative for TMUS holders.

Hormuz traffic halts after Iran boards ships

Geopolitical risk stayed the main cross-asset pressure point, with fresh evidence that Hormuz traffic has stalled, while AI policy and company updates added stock-specific signals.• Energy/Shipping: Bloomberg said Hormuz traffic stopped Thursday after Iran fired on commercial ships and boarded MSC Francesca and Epaminondas; only LB Energy was moving, and Ocean Jewel aborted transit.• Defense/Policy: Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired effective immediately, with no public explanation, during the blockade.• AI/Controls: A House committee advanced 20 bipartisan export-control bills, including measures targeting Nvidia Blackwell sales to China and H200 license oversight.• Tech/AI: Microsoft committed A$25 billion ($17.9 billion) to Australian AI and cloud capacity by end-2029.• Tesla: TSLA faces another China FSD delay, with broader approval now expected by Q3.