Mar 31, 2026

Oil jumps after Trump threatens further Iran strikes

Trump’s address reversed the relief trade: oil risk repriced higher, equity futures and Asia sold off, and rates reflected renewed inflation concern.• Oil/Iran: Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and could strike power plants or oil facilities if no deal emerges; Brent rose about 5% to roughly $106.• Markets/Rates: S&P 500 futures fell about 1%, Asia-Pacific shares dropped as much as 1.7%, two- and 10-year Treasury yields rose four basis points, and the dollar gained against G-10 peers.• Shipping/Supply: Lloyd’s List counted 201 Hormuz transits since the war began versus more than 3,000 monthly before; Kpler said Persian Gulf fertilizer loadings fell to 1.495 million tons from 3.364 million a year ago.• Asia/Policy: China drained $129 billion of short-term liquidity in March, while Guangdong ordered higher coal inventories and lower gas use.

WTI drops below $99 while US intelligence doubts Iran talks

Relief trades extended after hours, but the Iran endgame looked less certain as new intelligence and supply-chain evidence cut against a clean ceasefire narrative.• Oil/Iran: WTI fell as much as 1.8% to $98.37 ahead of Trump’s address, even as US agencies assessed Iran is not willing to enter substantial negotiations and believes it is in a strong position.• Energy/Shipping: TankerTrackers said no LNG tankers departed through Hormuz in March; Western Australia invoked emergency powers to obtain fuel-supply data amid shortages.• Tariffs/Industrials: The administration is preparing a 25% tariff on finished goods made with imported steel and aluminum, and separate pharma tariffs could be announced Thursday for drugmakers without White House pricing deals.• Deals/Tech: Globalstar jumped more than 20% after the FT reported Amazon is in acquisition talks.• Security/Tech: The UK embassy in Saudi Arabia told Britons to avoid US-linked businesses after IRGC threats against US companies.

Stocks rise after US signals conditional Iran ceasefire openness

Risk appetite held into the close, but the ceasefire path remained conditional and military headlines worsened around Hormuz.• Iran/Markets: The S&P 500 closed up 0.7% and Nasdaq rose 1.2%; Brent settled 2.7% lower at $101.16 and WTI fell 1.2% to $100.12.• Diplomacy/War: The US told mediators it is open to a ceasefire if Hormuz is open and safe, while Iran still denied requesting one. Trump sent JD Vance with a warning that pressure on Iranian infrastructure would rise absent a deal.• Military/Nuclear: The Pentagon is doubling A-10s in the region, Rosatom will evacuate more than 200 Bushehr staff, and Iranian media said strikes hit Hengam Island and injured a senior foreign-policy figure in Tehran.• Washington: GOP leaders reached a tentative deal to fund DHS through Sept. 30, though hard-right opposition could still slow passage.• Semis/Credit: Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital gained more than 8%; KKR capped redemptions at its K-FIT private-credit fund.

Lilly wins obesity-pill approval as UAE seeks UN-backed force for Hormuz

Single-name catalysts broadened beyond the Iran tape, though Gulf headlines still kept energy risk two-sided.• Pharma: Lilly’s once-daily obesity pill Foundayo won expedited FDA approval at a $149 monthly cash-pay starting dose; LLY rose as much as 4.5%, while Novo ADRs fell 2.6%.• Oil/Geopolitics: The UAE asked the UN to authorize measures, including force, to reopen Hormuz, and Dubai said it intercepted projectiles. Bloomberg also detailed IRGC tolls starting near $1 a barrel, payable in yuan or stablecoins.• Energy/Markets: Exxon fell about 5%, erasing roughly $36 billion of market value, on pace for its largest one-day market-cap loss since 2008 as oil-relief hopes hit energy shares.• Space/IPO: SpaceX confidentially filed for a possible June-July IPO, with reported fundraising estimates ranging from $40 billion to $80 billion.• AI Infrastructure: Related Digital neared $16 billion of financing for an Oracle data-center campus in Michigan.

Oil pares losses after Iran rejects Trump’s ceasefire claim

US data were firmer, but the market’s war-relief trade became less clean after Tehran denied Trump’s ceasefire claim and kept Hormuz leverage in place.• Oil/Hormuz: Trump said Iran asked for a ceasefire and tied any US consideration to Hormuz reopening; Iran called the claim false, and the IRGC said the strait would not reopen on Trump’s demands. WTI moved back above $100 and Brent traded near $102.• Macro/Rates: ADP payrolls rose 62,000 versus 40,000 expected, retail sales rose 0.6%, and ISM manufacturing reached 52.7, but prices paid jumped to 78.3.• Tech/War: Amazon’s Bahrain cloud operation was damaged in an Iranian strike, according to the FT; AWS had already reported regional disruption.• Semis: Intel will pay $14.2 billion, including about $6.5 billion of new debt, to buy back Apollo’s Ireland fab stake.• Retail: Nike fell 13%, touching its lowest intraday level since 2015.

Trump weighs NATO exit as Saudi oil exports halve

Risk tone stayed constructive in premarket trading, but the relief rally met fresh alliance risk and hard evidence that Gulf oil flows remain severely impaired.• Geopolitics/NATO: Trump told The Telegraph he is strongly considering a US exit from NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger”; UK PM Starmer reaffirmed NATO support and said Britain will not join the Iran war.• Oil/Hormuz: Saudi crude exports fell 50% in March to 3.33 million b/d, with 55 million barrels stranded in the Gulf; Brent recovered above $100 and physical cargoes still carried roughly a $9 premium.• Shipping/Diplomacy: The UK will convene 35 G-7, European and Gulf counterparts to plan a Hormuz reopening; Turkey is seeking Iranian permission for 11 ships to leave.• Stocks/Deals: S&P futures rose 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures 1%; Nike fell 15.5%, Boeing rose 4.2% on a DoD missile-seeker deal, and Lilly agreed to buy Centessa for up to $7.8 billion.

Brent falls below $100 after Trump signals Iran exit

Relief trades strengthened in oil, rates and equities, though fresh attack details and conflicting Trump-address reporting left the de-escalation path uncertain.• Oil/Markets: Brent fell below $100 for the first time in a week and WTI traded near $98 after Trump said US operations could end in two to three weeks; Hormuz remained largely closed.• Rates/FX: Treasuries rallied, with two- and 10-year yields down as much as 6 bp to 3.73% and 4.26%; the Bloomberg dollar index fell as much as 0.4%.• War/Shipping: QatarEnergy confirmed an Iranian cruise missile hit the Aqua 1 tanker, with no injuries or environmental impact; the UAE reported one death from intercepted drone debris.• Airlines/Fuel: Ryanair warned 10%-25% of May-June fuel supplies may be at risk if the war continues.• India/FX: RBI curbs forced at least $30 billion of rupee-arbitrage unwinds; the rupee slid to about 94.80.

Oil edges higher after tanker is hit near Qatar

Risk sentiment stayed firmer in Asia, but fresh Gulf shipping and infrastructure attacks kept the oil-risk premium alive.• Shipping/Oil: A tanker 17 nautical miles north of Ras Laffan, Qatar, was hit by two projectiles; the crew was safe, one fire was extinguished, and Brent traded above $105.• War/Infrastructure: Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, causing a large fire and significant damage but no casualties, according to Kuwait’s civil aviation spokesman.• War/Strait: Iranian state media said Bandar Abbas’s Shahid Haghani port was hit in a wave targeting critical infrastructure near Hormuz; Israel said it completed strikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran.• Markets/Credit: The Kospi gained more than 7%, Nikkei 4.5%, and Asian investment-grade CDS fell at least seven basis points, the biggest drop in 11 months.• Private Credit: House Democratic staff are questioning Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Carlyle and KKR on private-credit marketing, leverage, valuations and PIK exposure.

Trump sets Iran address after saying US can leave without deal

War headlines stayed market-positive but unresolved: Trump put a primetime Iran address on the calendar while Tehran denied talks and Hormuz access remained leverage.• Iran/Markets: The White House said Trump will address the nation Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET on Iran, his first primetime war address; he said the US could leave in two to three weeks whether or not there is a deal.• Hormuz/Oil: Brent reopened near $104-$105 after losing 3.2%; Abbas Araghchi said Iran may block ships from countries at war with it and that Iran and Oman would manage security after the conflict.• Asia/Risk: The Kospi jumped 5.5%, Nikkei 2.8%, MSCI Asia Pacific 2.4% and Asian tech 2.9%; South Korea’s unadjusted exports rose 48.3%.• Retail: Nike fell nearly 9% after hours after guiding current-quarter revenue down 2%-4%, with China sales expected to drop 20%.• Power/AI: Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 for a proposed $7 billion Texas gas plant to supply a data-center campus.

Stocks post best day in 10 months as OpenAI raises $122 billion

US risk appetite closed sharply stronger, but Iran diplomacy remained unsettled; AI funding and earnings added single-name support.• Markets/War: The S&P 500 closed up 2.9%, Nasdaq 3.8% and Dow 2.5%/1,125 points, their best day since May 2025; energy lagged.• Iran Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said US-Iran messages were not negotiations, Tehran had not answered a 15-point US plan and wanted an end to hostilities, not a cease-fire.• War/Defense: US officials said a third carrier group, led by the USS George H.W. Bush, is deploying to the Middle East; arrival may take weeks.• AI/Tech: OpenAI completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation, with Amazon investing $50 billion and Nvidia and SoftBank $30 billion each.• Retail/Software: Nike beat sales and EPS estimates; Oracle rose 6% as layoffs began, with employees saying cuts number in the thousands.

Stocks jump after Iran says it is ready to end war with guarantees

De-escalation headlines finally produced a confirmed cross-asset reversal, though policy and regional risks widened around inflation, US corporates and Lebanon.• Markets/Oil: IRNA reported President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to end the war if it receives guarantees. WTI flipped from a 3% gain to down 2.4% at $100.46, while the S&P 500 rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq gained 3.4%.• Tech/Geopolitics: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened 18 companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Tesla and Boeing, calling regional offices “legitimate targets” from Wednesday evening.• Rates/Macro: Fed’s Schmid warned officials should not look through the oil shock and said inflation could get stuck near 3%.• Europe/Energy: The EU said the war added €14 billion to fossil-fuel import costs and warned jet fuel and diesel markets are tightening.• Social Media: Snap jumped 13% after Irenic built a 2.5% stake and pushed for cuts and a Specs exit.

Brent nears $120 after Hegseth says Iran strikes may intensify

Risk appetite improved despite a fresh oil spike, with investors leaning into de-escalation hopes while military and supply-chain risks broadened.• War/Oil: Brent rose about 5% to $118, near war highs, as traders sought cargoes before the May contract expiry; June Brent was around $108.• War/Defense: Hegseth said US strikes would intensify without a deal, B-52s have begun overland Iran missions, and ground options were not ruled out.• Markets/Macro: The S&P 500 rose 1.3% and Nasdaq 1.6%; consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to 91.8, while job openings fell to 6.88 million.• Chips/AI: Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell and announced a silicon-photonics partnership; Marvell rose 9.3% premarket.• Health/Payments: The FDA tied Amgen’s Tavneos to 76 liver-injury cases, including eight deaths; Amazon replaced AmEx with U.S. Bancorp for small-business cards.

Trump tells allies to secure Hormuz oil as euro-zone inflation jumps

Risk assets tried to rally on de-escalation hopes, but new war, inflation and supply-route developments kept the energy shock central to positioning.• Energy/Geopolitics: Trump told the UK and other countries short of jet fuel to buy from the US or “take” oil from Hormuz themselves, while saying Iran was “essentially decimated” and the “hard part is done.”• Macro/Rates: Euro-zone inflation rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, below some forecasts but back above the ECB target; traders are pricing two or three ECB hikes by end-2026.• Markets/Energy: US energy stocks are set for record relative outperformance, with the S&P 500 Energy Index up 39% this quarter versus a 7% S&P 500 drop.• Biopharma/M&A: Biogen agreed to buy Apellis for $5.6 billion; Eli Lilly agreed to buy Centessa for up to $7.8 billion.

UAE attacks intensify as US gasoline tops $4

War-driven inflation and supply-chain stress broadened, with Gulf security worsening even as some risk assets held onto hopes for a shorter conflict.• Energy/Consumers: AAA said US regular gasoline rose to $4.018 a gallon, the first move above $4 since August 2022 and up about 35% since the war began.• Gulf Security: The UAE said air defenses were engaging several waves of Iranian missiles and drones across the country; debris hit Dubai homes and left four people with minor injuries.• Industrials/Chemicals: Sadara, the Saudi Aramco-Dow joint venture, temporarily halted production, citing disrupted supply chains and no restart timetable.• Staples/M&A: Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced, with $15.7 billion cash upfront plus McCormick equity; it also froze hiring globally for three months.• Rates/Europe: ECB hawk Madis Muller said rate increases are probable if energy costs stay high.

Oil reverses after Trump weighs ending Iran war without reopening Hormuz

Risk tone improved on a reported softer US war objective, though Gulf security headlines stayed volatile and diplomacy remained disputed.• Energy/Markets: WSJ reported Trump told aides he could end the Iran war without reopening Hormuz; WTI fell below $102 after earlier jumping nearly 4%, and S&P 500 futures rose almost 1% in Asian trading.• Energy/Shipping: Kuwait said the fully laden Al-Salmi was hit near Dubai by Iranian forces; TankerTrackers estimated 2 million barrels aboard, while UAE authorities said the fire was extinguished with no leak or injuries.• War/Gulf: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted eight missiles, most aimed at Riyadh; the UAE cited Iranian drones and missiles, and Sharjah reported a drone targeted a Thuraya telecom building.• Macro/Asia: China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, beating estimates; South Korea proposed a $17.3 billion supplementary budget for the Iran shock.• Stocks: Allbirds jumped after-hours on a $39 million asset sale to American Exchange.

WTI tops $100 while Hormuz toll reports conflict

Oil again set the tone: WTI broke a key level, equities gave back early gains, and Hormuz access looked no closer to normal.• Energy/Commodities: WTI settled up 3.3% at $102.88, its first close above $100 since 2022; Brent settled at $112.78 after touching $116.89.• Energy/Shipping: Iranian state media said parliament approved Hormuz tolls and bans on US, Israeli and sanctioning-country vessels, though FT/NYT accounts framed approval as still committee-level.• Energy/Shipping: Two Cosco ships exited Hormuz after being turned back Friday; Clarksons said traffic was still down 95%, with six daily transits versus 125 prewar.• Energy/Security: UKMTO said another tanker off Dubai reported an unknown-projectile strike and fire; crew were safe and authorities were investigating.• Markets/Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% and Nasdaq lost 0.7%; Micron fell 9.9% as its post-earnings slide deepened.

Treasuries rally as NATO intercepts Iranian missile over Turkey

Rates led the tape as oil cooled from its highs, while war escalation and diplomacy signals remained contradictory.• Rates/Macro: Powell said policy is well placed to wait out the energy shock and private credit does not look systemic; the 10-year yield fell about 11 bp to 4.33%, near its biggest one-day drop since August.• Iran/Diplomacy: The White House said remaining Iranian regime elements are increasingly eager to negotiate, but Trump declined to rule out ground operations; Rubio said Hormuz will reopen “one way or another.”• NATO/War: NATO intercepted a fourth Iranian missile over Turkey, and a Turkish adviser called the strikes a pattern; Israel said it hit 170 Iranian targets in 24 hours.• Energy/Markets: Brent fell back to flat near $112.60 after topping $116, while the Stoxx 600 closed up 0.9%.• Single Names: Merck’s enlicitide cut LDL cholesterol by 64%; Reuters said E*Trade is in talks to lead SpaceX’s retail IPO allocation.

Stocks and bonds rise after Trump touts Iran talks

Markets stabilized despite heavier policy and military headlines: investors bought stocks and Treasuries while officials framed Hormuz, energy supply and Fed tradeoffs as the key risks.• Iran/Markets: S&P futures rose about 0.9%, Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.4% after Trump claimed “great progress” with a “new” Iranian regime, even as he threatened Kharg Island, oil wells and power plants if Hormuz stays shut.• Hormuz/Energy: Bessent said the US would “retake” Hormuz control over time via US or multinational escorts; he cited a 10 million-12 million b/d oil deficit and WSJ reported 30 ships passed in two days.• Policy/Rates: The G7 pledged “all necessary measures” to protect energy markets; Powell said the Fed faces labor downside versus inflation upside, while Miran still backed gradual quarter-point cuts.• Single Names: BIIB won FDA approval for high-dose Spinraza; UBER agreed to buy Blacklane; FNMA and FMCC jumped more than 30% after Ackman called them “stupidly cheap.”

Cosco ships cross Hormuz as Iran prepares toll law

War news kept energy risk high, though confirmed vessel transits and easing signal jamming gave shippers limited operational relief; macro spillovers broadened into rates, Gulf liquidity and M&A.• Hormuz/Shipping: Two Cosco-linked container ships crossed Hormuz Monday, the first confirmed major container-line transit of the war, after broadcasting “CHINESE OWNER&CREW”; Iran is drafting a toll law for ships.• Oil/Infrastructure: Brent briefly approached $117 and WTI topped $100; Israel said Haifa’s Bazan refinery area was hit but production and fuel supply were unaffected.• Diplomacy/War: Iran called US demands “excessive and illogical” and said it had not joined Pakistan-hosted talks; Polymarket put US ground-entry odds at 72%.• Policy/Credit: Qatar allowed three-month loan deferrals, cut reserve requirements to 3.5% from 4.5% and offered unlimited riyal repo liquidity.• Deals/SYY: Bloomberg cited WSJ saying Sysco is near a roughly $29 billion Restaurant Depot acquisition.

Oil rises after Kuwaiti tanker is attacked off Dubai

Energy and growth stress intensified after a new tanker attack near Dubai, while policy responses broadened across fuel-importing economies and rates markets split between haven buying and inflation risk.• Oil/Shipping: Kuwait said the fully loaded Al-Salmi tanker, carrying about 2 million barrels, was attacked in Emirati waters; the fire was extinguished, no injuries were reported, and a spill was possible.• Hormuz/Trade: Two Cosco-linked container ships again tried to exit Hormuz after Friday’s U-turn, signaling Chinese ownership and crew to seek safe passage.• Crude/Pricing: Traders said Saudi Aramco may lift Arab Light’s May premium to about $40 a barrel from $2.50, which would likely curb Asian purchases.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries and European front-end bonds rallied on growth fears, though Schroders expects the US 10-year yield to reach 4.5% on energy-driven stagflation.• Metals/Autos: Toyota warned Japanese automakers rely on the Middle East for roughly 70% of aluminum supply.