Apr 9, 2026

Hormuz risk rises after US officials say Iran cannot clear mines

Geopolitical risk stayed elevated into the Pakistan talks, while regulators added pressure on financials and AI-linked power demand drew a concrete grid response.• Hormuz/Oil: U.S. officials told NYT Iran cannot locate or remove all mines it laid in the strait, complicating reopening; Trump said the U.S. will not allow Iranian tolls and called nuclear limits “99%” of the talks.• Lebanon/Iran: Hezbollah said it launched a drone strike on Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon; no casualties were immediately reported.• Financials/Credit: The Fed is asking major banks for details on private-credit exposures after redemptions and troubled loans, Bloomberg reported.• Power/AI: PJM proposed matching data centers with 15 GW of new supply and warned its shortfall could reach 60 GW over a decade.• Single Names: Dutch regulators approved Tesla FSD for immediate use in the Netherlands; Meta is hiring three former OpenAI Stargate leaders.

Stocks post best week since November after Iran delegation reaches Islamabad

Risk assets finished the week firmer despite Friday’s mixed close, with diplomacy advancing but Hormuz logistics still deteriorating.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% Friday, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.6%; for the week, the S&P gained 3.6% and Nasdaq 4.7%. Brent settled at $95.20, down 12.7% for the week.• Iran Talks: Iran’s delegation landed in Islamabad, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and including the foreign minister, defense council secretary and central bank governor; state media said talks start only if Iran’s preconditions are accepted.• Hormuz/Shipping: Only two ships crossed Hormuz Friday, down from four on each of Wednesday and Thursday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.• Lebanon/Israel: Lebanon and Israel agreed to Tuesday State Department talks, though Israel said it would not discuss a Hezbollah cease-fire.• Alternatives/AI: Blackstone filed for a roughly $2 billion data-center REIT IPO under BXDC.

Stocks turn lower after Trump says warships are reloading for Iran talks failure

Risk appetite faded by midday as Iran-talk brinkmanship overtook the softer core-CPI relief, while fresh supply-chain and single-name developments added dispersion.• Markets/Oil: Trump told the New York Post that US warships are being reloaded to resume strikes if Pakistan talks fail; the S&P 500 turned down 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.5%, and US crude rose to about $99.• Iran/Lebanon: Iran’s Ghalibaf said talks cannot begin until a Lebanon cease-fire and blocked-asset release are implemented; Lebanon said an Israeli strike killed 13 state security personnel.• Macro/Consumer: University of Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 47.6, while one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%.• Materials/Supply: China is moving to halt sulfuric acid exports from May, threatening copper and fertilizer supply chains already strained by the Iran war.• Single Names: Replimune fell more than 19% before a halt after a second FDA rejection; Palantir pared losses after Trump praised its war-fighting capabilities.

Futures firm after core CPI undershoots forecasts

Risk reaction was calmer than the headline inflation shock implied, helped by softer core services and incremental signs of selective Hormuz passage.• Macro/Rates: Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, while supercore services posted the smallest gain since May; S&P futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq futures 0.2%, and the 10-year yield held near 4.30%.• Diplomacy/Iran: Vance said the US expects “positive” Iran talks but warned Tehran not to “play” Washington; the delegation includes Witkoff and Kushner.• Shipping/Oil: Malaysia said seven stranded vessels received approval to leave Hormuz in stages without tolls after talks with Iran.• AI/Semis: Anthropic agreed to rent CoreWeave capacity using Nvidia chip architectures for Claude, adding another demand signal for AI infrastructure.• Private Credit: Ares is sounding investors on a smaller direct-lending fund, targeting roughly $20 billion after its record $33.6 billion predecessor.

CPI jumps on energy while Hormuz standstill worsens

Inflation and energy logistics remained the market’s pressure points, though AI hardware data offered an offset for semis.• Macro/Rates: March CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, the fastest annual pace since May 2024; energy prices rose 10.9%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Bloomberg said Hormuz remains effectively shut; FT counted more than 900 vessels stuck in the Gulf, with three Chinese tankers preparing to exit and a sanctioned-linked Russian-flagged VLCC entering.• Energy/Airlines: TotalEnergies said the Satorp refinery it owns with Saudi Aramco halted production after one processing train was damaged; ACI Europe warned EU airports face systemic jet-fuel shortages within three weeks without stable Hormuz passage.• Semis/AI: Taiwan exports surged 62% to a record $80.2 billion in March, far above the 34.7% estimate, on AI demand.• Defense: Lockheed won a $4.7 billion Pentagon Patriot-interceptor contract.

TSMC sales beat estimates as Iran delegation arrives for talks

AI hardware demand looked resilient, while Hormuz logistics remained the main commodity risk into the Pakistan talks.• Semis/AI: TSMC reported March-quarter revenue of NT$1.13 trillion, up 35% and slightly above consensus; March sales rose 45%, supporting Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Apple read-throughs.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Iran’s delegation arrived in Islamabad, while JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were en route; Iran’s parliament speaker demanded release of blocked assets before negotiations begin.• Shipping/Oil: WSJ said only eight ships crossed Hormuz Thursday versus a usual 135, and FT said more than 600 vessels remain stranded, including 26 South Korean-flagged ships; Seoul is sending an envoy.• Oil Reserves: Japan will release another 20 days of national oil reserves in May, while China allowed state refiners to tap commercial inventories.• Health Care: Abbott faces at least a $53 million infant-formula verdict, with punitive damages to be decided Friday.

Oil rises after Trump says Iran is violating Hormuz agreement

Risk tone stayed split: US equities finished higher, but Asia opened with oil firmer as Hormuz access remained disputed and new security warnings hit banks.• Hormuz/Oil: Trump warned Iran not to charge tanker fees and later said its limited oil passage was “not the agreement we have”; Brent rose 0.8% in early Asia to $96.73.• Equities: The S&P 500 closed up 0.6% for a seventh straight gain and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%; Brent settled up 1.2% at $95.92, below intraday highs above $100.• Gulf/Iraq: Iran’s IRGC denied any launches since the cease-fire, contradicting Kuwait’s drone reports; State said US diplomats were ambushed in Baghdad by Iran-aligned militias, with no casualties.• Banks/AI: Bloomberg said Bessent and Powell warned major bank CEOs about cyber risks from Anthropic’s Mythos model; JPMorgan was among firms with limited access.

Kuwait reports drone attacks as Netanyahu rules out Lebanon cease-fire

Cease-fire confidence weakened late day as Gulf security deteriorated and Israel made clear Lebanon remains outside any truce, while software sold off on AI-disruption concerns.• Gulf/Oil: Kuwait said hostile drones targeted vital facilities and severely damaged a National Guard site, with no injuries; Iraq’s Basra saw reported explosions, while the IRGC denied new attacks.• Saudi/Oil: Riyadh confirmed attacks cut production capacity by 600,000 b/d and East-West pipeline throughput by 700,000 b/d, the first official scale of the damage.• Lebanon/Israel: Netanyahu said “there is no cease-fire in Lebanon” and strikes on Hezbollah will continue, despite US-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks planned next week.• Software/AI: IGV fell 3.6%, a SaaS index dropped 5.5%, and Palantir slid 8% as Anthropic and Meta AI-agent launches intensified demand-risk concerns.• Credit/M&A: Carlyle capped private-credit redemptions at 5% after 15.7% requests; Brown-Forman jumped about 10% after WSJ said Sazerac approached it.

Oil retreats after Israel agrees to Lebanon talks

Oil came off session highs and Treasuries recovered after a Lebanon diplomacy opening, but the macro and energy backdrop still looked stagflationary.• Lebanon/Markets: Netanyahu agreed to direct talks with Lebanon on Hezbollah disarmament and peaceful relations; Bloomberg said oil retreated from highs and Treasuries erased most losses.• Oil/Hormuz: WTI topped $100 for the first time since the truce; Kpler said Gulf crude production fell 39% in March, and US Gulf Coast exports are set to hit a record 5 million barrels a day in May.• Macro/Rates: Core PCE rose 0.4% month over month and 3% year over year in February; continuing jobless claims fell to 1.79 million, while 4Q GDP was revised to 0.5%.• Tech/AI: Intel said Google committed to future Xeon processors, while Amazon said its in-house chip unit is on a $20 billion-plus annual run rate and may sell chips externally.

Oil nears $98 after ADNOC says Hormuz remains shut

Markets leaned defensive before the open: oil stayed bid and US futures slipped, even as direct Iranian attacks on Gulf states appeared to pause.• Hormuz/Oil: ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said the strait is “not open,” with access conditioned and about 230 loaded vessels waiting; Iran’s deputy foreign minister said ships must coordinate with its military.• Cease-fire/Gulf: The UAE said no Iranian drones or missiles were detected Thursday; WSJ counted roughly 21 hours without a UAE attack report and 19-plus hours for Saudi Arabia.• Lebanon/Truce: Hezbollah fired another rocket barrage; European leaders pressed to include Lebanon after Wednesday’s Israeli strikes killed more than 300, while Iran warned violations carry “strong responses.”• AI/Cloud: CoreWeave expanded its Meta AI-compute contract to $21 billion through 2032, using data centers partly powered by Nvidia Rubin systems.• Energy/Stocks: Chevron said 1Q output fell as much as 6% due partly to the Iran war; S&P futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%.

Oil rebounds after Hormuz traffic stays restricted

Energy risk stayed bid as shipping through Hormuz remained constrained, while Lebanon became a larger diplomatic threat to the cease-fire.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent recovered after Wednesday’s 13% plunge as only a handful of ships crossed; two laden tankers entered Thursday, dozens waited, and shipowners still lacked security guarantees.• Hormuz/Tolls: WSJ said Iran is charging as much as $2 million for a supertanker; UK, France, Canada, Gulf states and EU leaders pushed back, while Iran reaffirmed its right to control passage.• Lebanon/Truce: Israel kept striking Lebanon, including Tyre, and Netanyahu vowed to continue until Hezbollah disarms. Lebanon’s reported death toll was inconsistent, ranging from more than 180 to 303.• Commodities/Analysts: Goldman said Brent could average above $100 through 2026 if Hormuz stays closed another month, and $115 in a severe supply-loss scenario.• Single Stocks: Lilly’s India GLP-1 share slipped as semaglutide generics gained; Constellation rose 8.5% on signs of a Hispanic-consumer rebound.

Oil rises after Trump keeps US forces near Iran

Risk appetite faded in Asia as the cease-fire looked conditional rather than durable, with energy and shipping stress still driving the tape.• Iran/US: Trump said US ships, aircraft and troops will remain around Iran until a “real agreement” is fully complied with, warning the “shootin’ starts” if it fails.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran’s navy told commercial vessels to coordinate Strait of Hormuz transits with the IRGC because of possible anti-ship mines and directed alternate inbound and outbound routes.• Markets/Energy: Brent rose as much as 3.1% to $97.61, WTI gained 3.6% to $97.85, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%, and Asian benchmarks declined.• Lebanon/Truce: Hezbollah said it launched rockets at northern Israel after Israeli strikes; the US and Israel still say Lebanon is outside the truce, contrary to Tehran.• India/EM: Foreign investors sold Indian stocks for a record 23rd session, with $17.8 billion withdrawn since late February.

Oil rebounds after Iran sets Hormuz tolls

Energy risk re-firmed after the cease-fire failed to normalize Gulf shipping, while US stocks still closed with a relief rally.• Hormuz/Oil: WSJ reported Iran told mediators it would cap Hormuz crossings near a dozen ships a day and require tolls in crypto or yuan; Kpler saw no oil or gas tankers cross after the cease-fire.• Markets/Energy: WTI closed near $98 after a more than $7 intraday swing, then gained about $2 post-settlement; Saudi Arabia said attacks cut oil-production capacity by about 600,000 barrels a day.• Lebanon/Truce: Lebanon’s civil defense said Israeli strikes killed more than 254 people and wounded more than 700; Israel later said Hezbollah rockets were intercepted.• Companies: Constellation guided organic beer sales to down 1% to up 1%, below the 2.2% consensus; FedEx pilots reached a tentative deal with nearly 40% pay increases this year.

Cease-fire frays after Iran alleges US violations

Geopolitical risk re-widened as Washington and Tehran publicly diverged on what the cease-fire covers, while rates got a separate bid from cautious Fed minutes and muni buying.• Iran/Hormuz: The White House called reports that Hormuz was closed false and said traffic had increased, but would not say who controls the strait; it also said tolls were not accepted policy.• Truce/Lebanon: Iran’s Ghalibaf said three clauses were violated, including Lebanon’s exclusion, a drone incursion and US opposition to enrichment, making talks “meaningless”; he did not formally quit talks.• Diplomacy/NATO: Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are set for Islamabad talks Saturday, while Leavitt said Trump would discuss a possible NATO exit with Mark Rutte.• Rates/Oil: Fed minutes showed officials split between war-driven inflation and labor risks; 10-year munis rallied 9 bp, while North Sea crude premiums hit records.

Oil pares losses after Iran halts Hormuz tanker transits

Relief trades held in equities, but cease-fire mechanics deteriorated around Hormuz and Lebanon while lower oil hit energy-linked winners.• Hormuz/Truce: Iran’s Fars said oil-tanker passage through Hormuz was halted after Israeli strikes on Lebanon; WSJ said Iran made Islamabad talks and reopening the strait conditional on a Lebanon cease-fire.• Gulf Attacks: UAE reported 17 Iranian missiles and 35 drones since the cease-fire began; Qatar said it was hit by seven ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia intercepted nine drones.• Saudi/Energy: People familiar told Bloomberg the East-West pipeline damage was limited and contained, with no shutdown, reversing earlier concern about a partial shutdown.• Markets/Positioning: Goldman said hedge funds covered US equity shorts at the fastest pace since March 2020; S&P 500 opened 2.6% higher and Nasdaq 3.2%.• Single Stocks: Meta rose 6% after debuting its closed Muse Spark AI model; CF fell about 9% as fertilizer war premiums unwound.

Oil risk resurfaces after Saudi pipeline is hit by drone

Cease-fire relief remained visible, but fresh attacks and unresolved shipping rules kept the energy unwind from looking clean.• Saudi/Energy: Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline to the Red Sea was hit by a drone around 1 p.m. local time, with damage still being assessed; Aramco declined comment.• Hormuz/Shipping: Hormuz remained largely blocked, with seven ships exiting versus roughly 135 daily peacetime transits and more than 800 freighters stuck in the Gulf.• Markets/FX: Brent settled down 13% at $94.75 and WTI fell 16% to $94.41, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 1.04% and the VIX slid to 20.18.• Companies: Exxon flagged a 6% production hit and $3.5 billion-$4.9 billion of trading-timing drag; Delta projected a $2 billion fuel-cost hit through June.

Cease-fire frays after Iran attacks Kuwait energy facilities

Relief trades held, but cease-fire implementation looked shakier after new attacks and tighter Iranian control signals around Hormuz.• Gulf/Energy: Kuwait said it engaged 28 Iranian drones targeting oil facilities and power stations from 8 a.m. local time; authorities cited limited damage to oil, power and desalination sites.• Iran/Refining: Iran’s oil ministry said the Lavan refinery was attacked around 10 a.m. local time and crews were fighting a fire; no casualties were reported.• Hormuz/Shipping: The IRGC navy radioed anchored vessels that they still need Iranian permission to transit or “will be destroyed,” while data showed 426 tankers, 34 LPG carriers and 19 LNG vessels in the Gulf.• Rates/Equities: Fed-cut odds by December rose to 43% from 14%; energy was the only negative S&P sector, with VG down more than 10% and FANG/OXY off more than 5%.

European stocks surge while Lebanon dispute tests Iran truce

The relief rally reached Europe, but implementation risks shifted from the cease-fire headline to shipping mechanics, Lebanon and still-elevated fuel costs.• Europe/Rates: The Stoxx Europe 600 opened up 3.8%, Germany’s DAX rose 5%, and 10-year gilt yields fell as much as 21 bp as energy prices dropped.• Hormuz/Shipping: Petronas said an Iraqi crude tanker cleared Hormuz for Malaysia, while two ships were tracked attempting the first exits since the cease-fire announcement.• Lebanon/Truce: Israel ordered Tyre residents to evacuate after strikes near Lebanese medical sites; Iran said Washington must choose between a cease-fire or continued war via Israel.• Energy/Airlines: European gas futures fell as much as 20%, but IATA warned jet-fuel supplies may take months to normalize.• Single Stocks: Shell said first-quarter oil trading was significantly higher than the prior quarter.

Nasdaq futures jump after Israel narrows Iran truce scope

Risk rally broadened in Asia and US tech futures, but the truce remained fragile as Israel limited its scope and shipping access looked conditional.• Markets/Asia: Nasdaq futures extended gains to 3%; Nikkei was up 5%, Kospi rose as much as 6.2%, Hang Seng gained 2.5%, and MSCI EM climbed 3.7%.• Geopolitics/Lebanon: Netanyahu backed the two-week US-Iran pause but said it excludes Lebanon, contradicting Pakistan; WSJ said Israel was still striking Iran after Iranian missile waves.• Shipping/Energy: AP said Iran and Oman may charge Hormuz transit fees; WSJ reported a tiered “Tehran Toll Booth,” with at least 35 large ships paying $1m+.• Commodities: Gasoil plunged as much as 23%, Asian LNG prices were set to fall, and soybean-oil futures dropped 5% as cheaper crude hit biofuel demand.• Single Stocks/Credit: Bain’s Bridge Data Centres replaced Megaspeed at a 68.4MW Malaysian hub after a US probe into possible Nvidia chip smuggling; Moody’s cut Blue Owl Credit Income’s outlook to negative.