Apr 3, 2026

Kuwait energy sites hit as US CPI jump looms

War news turned more directly energy-infrastructure negative, while the coming inflation calendar added a rates risk from higher gasoline.• Kuwait/Energy: Iranian drones hit Kuwait’s Shuwaikh oil sector complex, which houses KPC and the oil ministry, and knocked two power and desalination plants out of service; Kuwait reported no injuries.• Iran/Petrochemicals: Israeli strikes effectively shut all production at Mahshahr, Iran’s largest petrochemical complex, after hitting utility plants that supplied more than 50 facilities.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran exempted Iraqi ships from Strait of Hormuz restrictions, potentially allowing up to 3 million barrels a day of Iraqi oil cargoes, though shipper participation and enforcement remain unclear.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg economists expect March CPI to rise 1%, the biggest monthly gain since 2022, after gasoline jumped about $1 a gallon.• Satellites/Defense: Planet Labs said it will indefinitely withhold conflict-region imagery after a U.S. government request.

US commits most JASSM-ER missiles as Trump renews Hormuz ultimatum

War risk stayed elevated, but the clearest equity read-through was fresh munitions demand alongside renewed energy and nuclear-safety tail risks.• Defense/Munitions: The U.S. is drawing nearly its entire JASSM-ER inventory into the Iran campaign; about 425 of 2,300 prewar missiles would remain, after more than 1,000 were used in four weeks. LMT is due to produce 396 in 2026.• Gulf/Policy: Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen Hormuz or face “all Hell,” after previously sending conflicting signals on whether the U.S. would force the strait open.• Nuclear Risk: The IAEA said a projectile struck near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, killing one worker and damaging a building, with no reported radiation increase.• Shipping/Energy: Bloomberg vessel data showed Hormuz transits at the highest seven-day average since the war began, though tracking remains distorted by AIS outages and interference.

US rescues downed airman after firefight in Iran

Risk stayed war-led: the missing airman was recovered, but strikes widened into petrochemicals and Lebanon while energy-cost policy responses hardened.• US/Iran: U.S. Special Operations forces rescued the injured F-15E weapons officer in Iran after a two-day race; a former official said a firefight erupted and hundreds of troops were involved.• Energy/War: Israel struck Iran’s Mahshahr petrochemical complex, which Netanyahu called a revenue “money machine,” and reported Tehran air-defense and ballistic-missile-storage strikes.• UAE/Oracle: Dubai said interception debris hit the facade of an Oracle building, with no injuries; the UAE had denied Iran’s earlier claim that the building was struck.• Energy/Policy: Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria urged the EU to tax windfall profits at energy companies benefiting from the war.• Airlines: Flightradar24 data showed United and Delta widebody flying up 11% and 12%, though fuel and logistics remain headwinds.

US aircraft losses widen after Iran hits A-10 and rescue helicopter

War risk worsened into the close, with fresh aircraft losses, signs Iran’s missile force remains resilient and new fuel-supply warnings for airlines.• Gulf/Security: People familiar told WSJ Iran hit a U.S. A-10; the pilot flew out of Iranian territory before ejecting and was rescued.• Rescue Mission: U.S. and Israeli officials said Iranian ground fire hit a U.S. Black Hawk during the F-15E rescue operation, though it reached Iraq safely.• Iran Capability: U.S. intelligence reports said Iran is reopening struck missile bunkers and still holds significant missiles and mobile launchers, contradicting claims of rapid degradation.• Airlines/Fuel: Lufthansa warned jet-fuel availability is already difficult at some Asian airports and could worsen the longer Hormuz remains blocked; DAL, UAL, AAL and JETS traded lower.

Cease-fire efforts stall while Abu Dhabi aluminum outage stretches to a year

Geopolitical risk stayed elevated, with diplomacy worsening and supply-chain damage becoming more quantifiable; budget details moved defense and space-exposure names.• Diplomacy/War: Mediators said Pakistan-led cease-fire efforts hit a dead end after Iran rejected meetings with U.S. officials in Islamabad; Qatar is also resisting a lead mediation role.• Metals/Supply: Emirates Global Aluminium said its Abu Dhabi smelter may take up to 12 months to fully restore output, tightening aluminum supply near four-year LME highs.• Defense/Budget: The Pentagon request includes 85 LMT F-35s, up from 47 last year, two Virginia-class submarines and $17.5 billion for Golden Dome missile-defense R&D.• Space/Budget: Trump proposed cutting NASA by about $6 billion, canceling 40 science missions and phasing out BA’s SLS and LMT’s Orion for commercial replacements.• Gulf/Security: Qatar said it intercepted Iranian drones; Abu Dhabi reported one death and four injuries tied to debris at Habshan, plus 12 injuries near Ajban.

Payrolls beat forecasts while Trump seeks $1.5 trillion defense budget

A firm payroll report pushed rates higher despite fresh growth warnings, while Washington’s war budget and shipping backstops added sector-specific support.• Macro/Rates: March payrolls rose 178,000, above all Bloomberg forecasts, unemployment fell to 4.3%, wages rose 0.2% month over month and two-year yields jumped to 3.85%.• Defense/Budget: Trump requested $1.5 trillion for fiscal 2027 defense spending, including $350 billion tied to Iran-war needs and munitions, alongside $73 billion of domestic cuts.• Shipping/Insurance: The DFC doubled its Hormuz marine reinsurance plan to $40 billion, adding Travelers, Liberty Mutual, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Starr and CNA with Chubb as lead underwriter.• Gulf/Security: U.S. officials said one F-15E crew member was rescued, another remained missing, and an A-10 also crashed near Hormuz; Iranian-linked outlets reported a U.S. rescue mission under fire.• Macro/Services: S&P Global’s U.S. services PMI fell to 49.8, its first contraction since 2023.

Oil risk rises after Gulf energy attacks expand

Energy-security risk worsened overnight as attacks hit Gulf infrastructure and US military losses raised escalation risk; one Hormuz transit offered a limited shipping offset.• Gulf/Energy: Kuwait Petroleum said a drone hit the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, igniting several units; Kuwait also reported damage to a power and desalination plant.• UAE/Gas: Abu Dhabi halted Habshan, its main gas processing facility, after debris from an intercepted attack started a fire; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted more drones.• US/Iran: US forces searched for an F-15E crew member after Iran shot down the jet; Trump threatened bridges and then power plants if Tehran does not move fast toward a deal.• Shipping/Hormuz: CMA CGM Kribi became the first known Western Europe-linked container ship to pass Hormuz since the war began, while the UN said 20,000 seafarers remain trapped.

Kuwait intercepts attacks as Microsoft readies $10 billion Japan AI plan

Geopolitical spillovers broadened into Kuwait and Japanese defense procurement, while Asia macro data and Microsoft’s AI spending offered separate equity signals.• Gulf/Security: Kuwait said air defenses were intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks, adding a new Gulf target set beyond the UAE.• Tech/AI: Microsoft announced a four-year, $10 billion Japan AI and cloud plan with Sakura Internet and SoftBank, above its prior $2.9 billion two-year pledge.• Defense: Bloomberg reported Japan’s roughly 400 Tomahawk order faces delivery disruptions because US inventories are being consumed in the Iran war; RTX was indicated lower.• Asia/Macro: China’s RatingDog services PMI fell to 52.1 from 56.7, missing the 53.6 consensus.• FX/Energy: Japan warned it is ready for “bold action” after the yen slid near 159.7 per dollar.

Drug tariffs hit pharma as WTI settles above $111

Policy and geopolitical risks broadened beyond crude, though US equities finished slightly higher after a sharp morning selloff.• Pharma/Tariffs: The White House authorized tariffs of up to 100% on some patented imported medicines, with generics exempt for now and 15% caps for several allied markets.• Energy/Markets: WTI settled 11.4% higher at $111.54, its biggest daily gain since 2020; Brent closed at $109.03, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and Nasdaq added 0.2%.• War/Security: US forces struck Iran’s B1 bridge twice; Iranian officials said eight people were killed and 95 wounded, while Trump warned there was “much more to follow.”• Tech/Region: The IRGC claimed it hit Oracle’s data and computing center in the UAE, extending threats against US technology targets in the Gulf.• Metals/Tariffs: The administration kept 50% tariffs on many imported steel, aluminum and copper products while revising derivative-product rules.

Physical oil tops $140 as chip-tool crackdown advances

Oil-market stress broadened from futures into physical barrels and refined products, while Washington added a fresh China-tech risk and companies began passing through fuel costs.• Oil/Products: Dated Brent jumped to $141.37 a barrel, the highest since 2008; northwest Europe jet fuel closed at a record $1,904 a ton, up 18% on the day.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Tehran will set tolls for Hormuz passage; Norway said charging ships in international straits would violate sea law, and Bloomberg said Western-owned vessels are unlikely to pay.• Energy/Supply: BNEF said Middle East oil-product exports in March fell by 4.8 million barrels a day from prewar levels to about 2.8 million, with jet-fuel exports down 85%.• Tech/China: US lawmakers proposed the MATCH Act to tighten chip-tool controls on China, targeting ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA.• Retail/Logistics: Amazon will add a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for many sellers.

Stocks recover after Iran drafts Hormuz protocol with Oman

Risk assets whipsawed, with an early oil-led selloff fading after Tehran signaled a possible managed path for Hormuz traffic; single-name pressure broadened in autos and private-credit managers.• Markets/Hormuz: US stocks recovered to flat after the S&P 500 had fallen 1.5%, and oil eased to $106 from a $109.50 high after Iran said it was drafting a Hormuz traffic protocol with Oman.• Autos: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in 1Q, below the 372,160 Bloomberg consensus, while Ford deliveries fell 8.8% as F-Series sales dropped 16%.• Private Credit: Blue Owl capped two BDC redemptions at 5% after exit requests reached 21.9% and 40.7%; OWL fell as much as 10% premarket and peers dropped at least 4%.• Macro/Rates: Jobless claims fell to 202,000, below 212,000 expected, but the IMF said the Fed has little scope to cut rates this year.

UAE reports new missile barrage while Macron rejects military Hormuz reopening

Energy risk stayed bid, but the main incremental developments were a wider Gulf attack count and fading allied appetite for a forceful Strait of Hormuz solution.• War/Gulf: The UAE said 19 missiles and 26 drones targeted the country Thursday, adding to signs the Gulf theater remains active after Trump’s address.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Macron said reopening Hormuz by military means is “unrealistic” and would require consultation with Iran; the Philippines said Iran assured safe passage for its vessels, energy cargo and seafarers.• Oil/Supply: Iraq began trucking 50,000 barrels a day of crude through Syria to the Mediterranean and Europe after exports fell from more than 3 million barrels a day to about 250,000.• Markets/Companies: Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.9%, the VIX rose near 27 and 10-year yields reached 4.37%; KKR raised a record $23 billion Americas buyout fund, while Unilever’s selloff reached 24%.

Diesel hits 2022 high after Iran strikes broaden across Gulf

Energy and inflation stress intensified, with broader risk assets selling off and governments moving from contingency planning toward fuel-security measures.• Energy/Fuels: Brent rose about 7% to near $108, European gas gained as much as 7.2%, and European diesel futures hit $1,493.25 a ton, or more than $200 a barrel, the highest since 2022.• War/Security: Iran kept firing after Trump’s address; the UAE reported minor Abu Dhabi damage, Saudi Arabia intercepted one missile and five drones, and Israel reported five launch sets by midmorning.• Markets: S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.4% drop, South Korea’s Kospi fell about 4.5%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.4%, gold fell roughly 3% and silver more than 5%.• Policy/Supply: The UK will chair roughly 35 nations on Hormuz options, while China told private refiners to keep 2025 fuel output levels at any cost.