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Brent stays above $100 amid Gulf war shipping shock
Oil was the day’s macro anchor, with Gulf escalation keeping inflation and margin pressure in focus even as US equities showed resilience and AI hardware provided a late risk offset. The close left crude firmly bid, while after-hours US strikes and broader regional attacks kept overnight risk elevated.• Oil/Shipping: Brent settled 3.2% higher at $103.42, its fourth straight close above $100, after Fujairah suspended loadings, Hormuz crossings collapsed and buyers paid more than $150 for Oman crude to replace Gulf barrels.• Gulf/Security: Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani, Iran intensified drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, and US forces later bombed Iranian anti-ship missile sites near Hormuz after further attacks around Israel, Kuwait, Beirut and Baghdad.• Equities/AI: The S&P 500 held modest gains intraday despite oil near triple digits, while Nvidia restarted H200 production for licensed China customers and Asian chip stocks rallied on AI demand.• Airlines/Fuel: Delta and peers raised revenue views, but jet fuel and diesel spikes pressured the sector, with American flagging about $400mn of extra monthly fuel costs.• Credit/Policy: Banks benefited from reports that Fed-led rule changes could free $200bn of capital, while JPMorgan-led lenders halted a Qualtrics debt deal after investors balked at software risk.
Asian chip stocks rise while Israel expands strikes to Beirut
Risk news broadened beyond Hormuz, but Asian trading showed selective risk appetite as AI hardware led regional gains and Brent eased from the U.S. close.• Gulf/Security: Israel struck central Beirut and southern suburbs; Lebanon reported six killed and 24 injured. Iraq also said the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad faced a fresh attack.• Nuclear Risk: The IAEA said Iran reported a projectile hit the area around the Bushehr nuclear plant, with no damage or injuries, and urged restraint.• Markets/AI: Brent fell 1% to $102.4. South Korea’s Kospi rose 3.8%, Japan’s benchmark gained 2.2% and Taiwan’s Taiex added 1.4% as AI suppliers rallied.• Chips/Memory: Samsung shares rose as much as 6.5% after it said it may shift memory-chip customers to three- to five-year contracts.• Airlines/Fuel: Cathay extended Riyadh and Dubai passenger and cargo cancellations through April.
US bombs Hormuz missile sites after Iran attack kills two near Tel Aviv
Geopolitical escalation accelerated after the US struck Iranian coastal missile sites, while alternative crude routes and airline liquidity stress added sector-specific implications.• Gulf/Security: US Central Command said it used multiple 5,000-pound deep-penetrator bombs on hardened Iranian anti-ship missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz that threatened shipping.• Israel/Iran: Israeli emergency services said two people were killed near Tel Aviv after a cluster-missile attack; Kuwait said it confronted drone and missile attacks, with two minor injuries.• Oil/Shipping: Iraq and Kurdistan agreed to restart exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan route Wednesday; the pipeline previously averaged 450,000 b/d as Iraq output has fallen to about 1.5mn b/d.• Defense/Markets: The USS Gerald R. Ford is heading to port after a laundry-area fire injured two sailors, though its strike group will keep operating.• Airlines: American said higher fuel added about $400mn of costs this month and may pull forward financing for liquidity.
Brent settles at $103.42 as Nvidia restarts China H200 production
Energy stress remained the main macro overhang, but late company and policy headlines added discrete moves across chips, crypto and travel.• Oil/Shipping: Brent settled 3.2% higher at $103.42, its fourth straight close above $100, while FT said Oman crude traded above $150 as buyers replaced Gulf barrels.• Chips/China: Nvidia said it is restarting H200 production for many licensed China customers, marking progress in re-entering a market constrained by export controls.• Credit/Software: JPMorgan-led banks halted a $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal after investors balked at software and AI-disruption risk.• Travel/Shutdown: TSA absences reached 10.2% nationally, and an official warned small airports could close if the DHS funding lapse continues.• Crypto/Regulation: The SEC and CFTC issued token-taxonomy guidance saying most crypto assets are not securities, supporting Coinbase and miners.
Oil holds near $102 after Iran escalates Saudi drone attacks
Risk appetite held up, but Gulf tail risks widened: oil stayed near triple digits, Washington’s ally split deepened, and company news showed winners from disrupted supply chains.• Gulf/Energy: Iran launched almost 100 drones at Saudi Arabia on Monday, its largest single-day barrage of the war, with attacks increasingly focused on the eastern province.• Markets/Oil: International crude was about $102, WTI near $95 and the S&P 500 up 0.3% after Trump’s remarks; the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2bp to 4.2%.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Trump said the US no longer needs help from NATO, Japan, Australia or South Korea; Bloomberg said reopening Hormuz looks unlikely without a ceasefire.• Airlines: Delta rose more than 4% as Delta, American, JetBlue and Frontier lifted revenue or unit-revenue views despite higher fuel.• Industrials/AI: Alcoa cited new orders as Gulf smelters curb output; Nvidia’s Huang said revenue can exceed $1tn.
US stocks rise while UAE and Qatar intercept Iranian missiles
Stocks opened firmer despite heavier Gulf risk, with oil off intraday highs but energy inflation spreading into fuels, fertilizer and airlines.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and Nasdaq 0.5% at the open; Brent traded near $102.50, while January 2027 WTI topped $75 from $68.55 last week.• Gulf/Security: Qatar intercepted a second missile wave, and the UAE said it intercepted 10 ballistic missiles and 45 drones; debris killed one Pakistani national.• Washington/Allies: NCTC Director Joe Kent resigned over the Iran war; Canada and Greece ruled out joining military operations around Hormuz.• Airlines/Fuel: Delta said jet fuel doubled since quarter start and raised fares; SAS cut some flights, while US diesel rose 6c to $5.• Company News: Qualcomm authorized a $20bn buyback and raised its dividend; Boeing delayed its commercial-unit margin target to 2027.
Israel kills Larijani as Hormuz crossings stay paralysed
Geopolitical risk stayed dominant, with confirmed leadership-targeting reports and fresh shipping data keeping energy and inflation pressure elevated, while airlines and AI infrastructure offered stock-specific offsets.• Iran/Israel: Israel said it killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official; NYT said Iranian state media also confirmed his death, while some wires still noted no official Iranian response.• Shipping/Oil: WSJ said Hormuz crossings are near two ships a day versus more than 100 in peacetime, with about 1,100 ships trapped in the Gulf and 20 hit since the war began.• Airlines: Delta raised first-quarter revenue growth to the high single digits from 5%-7%, citing stronger March leisure and corporate bookings; JetBlue also cited improved demand.• Macro/Rates: Germany’s ZEW expectations index plunged to -0.5 from 58.3, far below the 39.2 estimate, as energy-price risk hit recovery hopes.• Metals/EVs: Darton said cobalt shortages may last through 2030 after Congo export curbs drove benchmark prices up more than 160%.
Oil rises after Fujairah suspends loadings
Energy risk re-accelerated in early Europe, adding stagflation pressure, while separate US bank-regulatory and Tesla battery news offered single-stock offsets.• Oil/Shipping: Fujairah suspended oil loadings at tanker terminals and a Vopak joint-venture mooring after recent strikes; Brent rose 4.3% to $103.78.• Fuel/Inflation: AAA said US diesel reached $5.044 a gallon, the first move above $5 since December 2022, raising costs for freight, farming and construction.• Iraq/Hormuz: Iraq said it is negotiating with Iran to let some tankers pass after output fell to about 1.2mn b/d from 4.4mn.• Banks/Capital: Bloomberg said Fed-led rule changes could free about $200bn of capital for major US banks, supporting buybacks, trading and lending.• Autos/Batteries: Tesla and LG Energy confirmed a $4.3bn Michigan LFP battery plant for Megapack systems, with production due next year.
Stocks rise after oil falls on reserve-release hopes
Risk assets finished firmer as crude’s early spike faded on reserve-release signals and tentative Hormuz transit, letting Treasuries rally and megacap technology retake leadership. The close was not clean: fresh attacks around Fujairah and UAE gas infrastructure pushed oil higher again in late Asia, keeping the energy-risk premium alive for the next session.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent swung from above $106 to a $100.21 settlement after the IEA said more reserves could be released and Trump suggested Hormuz could reopen soon, but a tanker strike near Fujairah later lifted Brent back toward $103.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 rose 1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2% as oil retreated; Treasury yields fell 3-5 bps, helped by lower crude and a softer New York manufacturing print.• Tech/AI: Nvidia rose after saying Blackwell and Rubin could generate at least $1 trillion through 2027, while Meta’s up-to-$27bn Nebius infrastructure deal supported the AI buildout theme.• Energy Producers: TotalEnergies flagged shutdowns across Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, and a strike suspended operations at ADNOC and Occidental’s Shah gas venture.• Transport/Airlines: Gulf disruption persisted as British Airways extended regional cancellations and UAE airspace briefly closed before reopening.
Oil rebounds after tanker is struck near Fujairah
Risk tone turned more cautious in Asia as Gulf shipping and airspace disruptions outweighed Monday’s oil relief, while semiconductor supply commentary stayed supportive for memory names.• Oil/Shipping: Brent rose 2.7% to about $103 and WTI traded near $96 after a tanker anchored near Fujairah was struck by an unknown projectile with minor damage and no injuries.• Energy/Geopolitics: UAE authorities said Fujairah Oil Industry Zone was hit by drone strikes again, causing a fire, while the country briefly closed and then reopened its airspace.• Conflict: Israel said it launched wide-scale strikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran and Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut; G7 leaders urged de-escalation in Lebanon.• Semis: SK Group’s chairman said the memory-chip shortage may last four to five more years, with wafer supply lagging demand by more than 20%.• Credit: Morgan Stanley projected direct-lending defaults could reach 8%, citing leveraged software borrowers exposed to AI disruption.
Nvidia rises on $1 trillion chip outlook as UAE gas strike widens energy attacks
Tech leadership and lower crude supported risk, but attacks on energy assets and transport bottlenecks kept supply-chain risk active.• Tech/AI: Nvidia said Blackwell and Rubin chips should generate at least $1 trillion through 2027, up from its prior $500bn-through-2026 frame; shares rose as much as 4.8%.• Energy/Geopolitics: A drone strike set the UAE’s Shah gas field ablaze, suspending operations at the ADNOC-Occidental venture; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 98 drones in 24 hours.• Markets/Oil: Brent settled down 2.8% at $100.21 and WTI fell 5.3% to $93.50, while the S&P 500 closed up 1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%.• Airlines/Transport: The FAA proposed cutting O’Hare’s daily flight cap to 2,608, and unpaid TSA staff shortages drove longer airport lines.
Oil stays lower after Trump says Hormuz could reopen soon
Markets mostly absorbed Trump’s Iran remarks, with crude lower and equities higher despite fresh threats and mixed signals on diplomacy.• Markets/Oil: NYT said Trump’s comments did not move markets much; Brent was near $101, down slightly, WTI hovered below $95, and the S&P 500 was up 1%.• Hormuz/Geopolitics: Trump said Rubio will name countries helping with ship passage, but Germany rejected military participation and the EU said there was no appetite to expand Operation Aspides; Trump also said ships must be willing to transit.• Iran/Kharg: Trump claimed the US hit more than 7,000 Iranian targets, destroyed more than 30 mine-laying ships and kept Kharg oil infrastructure as a “five minutes notice” option.• Conflict/Airlines: Iran’s president called war-ending talks “meaningless,” while British Airways extended Gulf cancellations to May 31 for Dubai, Amman, Bahrain and Tel Aviv.• Metals/Plumbing: LME electronic trading resumed around 5:30 p.m. London after a technical halt across metals contracts.
Oil falls after IEA says more reserves can be released
Oil and rates got the clearest relief signal, while the Hormuz coalition effort looked more politically constrained and US-China trade talks sounded constructive.• Oil/IEA: WTI fell 3.6% and Brent traded near $102 after the IEA said its 400mn-barrel release had calmed markets and more reserves could be released if needed; more than 170mn barrels will come from US storage.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries rallied, with yields down 3-5 bps, as oil retreated. New York manufacturing slipped to -0.2 versus 3.9 expected, while industrial production rose 0.2%.• Gulf/Shipping: France, Greece and Italy resisted sending forces to Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu bypass drew 27 crude carriers, up from 11 Friday, with shipments near 3.1mn b/d.• Deals/Stocks: Public Storage agreed to buy National Storage in an all-stock deal valued at $10.5bn including debt; Structure Therapeutics rose after its obesity pill showed about 15% weight loss.
UAE output halves while oil reverses on Hormuz transit hopes
Oil gave back gains after limited Hormuz transits and Fujairah’s restart offset a deeper UAE supply hit; US futures firmed while AI infrastructure drove premarket movers.• Oil/Supply: UAE output has fallen to about 2.0mn b/d from 3.56mn in February, a person familiar said, as storage fills under Hormuz’s effective closure.• Hormuz/Shipping: Fujairah resumed oil loading after the latest drone-related fire, and a Pakistan-owned tanker carrying Abu Dhabi crude transited the strait.• Policy/Allies: The UK and Germany resisted joining a wider war; Starmer said London could offer autonomous mine-hunting and anti-drone assets but made no decision.• AI/Tech: Meta signed a five-year Nebius AI-infrastructure deal worth up to $27bn; NBIS rose 13% and META about 2% premarket.• War/Lebanon: Israel said it began a ground maneuver in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket fire; Germany warned against a broader offensive.
Oil rises after Fujairah is hit again
Energy-supply risk re-intensified on fresh Gulf infrastructure damage, while AI hardware and China EV news added single-stock angles.• Oil/Gulf: Fujairah, the UAE bypass port outside Hormuz, was hit again; people familiar said damage was being assessed and oil loading was suspended. Brent moved back above $106 and WTI traded near $101.• Energy Producers: TotalEnergies said production was shut or shutting in Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, representing about 15% of its total output.• Shipping/Fuel: India is prioritizing safe passage for six LPG tankers carrying 270,000 tons; 22 India-flagged vessels remain stuck, including six LPG ships, four crude tankers and one LNG carrier.• AI Hardware: Hon Hai’s quarterly profit fell 2.4% to NT$45.2bn, missing NT$59.9bn consensus and raising concerns around Nvidia server demand.• China EVs: BYD jumped as much as 8.3% on local reports of roughly 100,000 Brazil export orders.
Sinopec cuts refinery runs as US futures climb
Risk tone improved even with physical energy stress spreading into Asian refining and transport; policy responses stayed defensive rather than coordinated.• Oil/Supply: Sinopec cut March processing about 10% from plan, excluding maintenance, implying a more than 500,000 b/d hit; FGE expects Chinese refiners to cut runs by 1.5mn b/d.• Markets: US equity futures climbed to session highs, Brent traded around $104, and Hang Seng Tech rose more than 2%.• Gulf/Aviation: Dubai flights resumed after a temporary suspension tied to the fuel-tank fire; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 38 drones in the east.• Energy Policy: South Korea plans to lift nuclear utilization to about 80%, remove a coal-generation cap and release 22.46mn barrels of crude reserves over three months.• China/AI: Alibaba is preparing an enterprise agentic-AI service based on Qwen, people familiar told Bloomberg.
Stocks and yields fall after Brent tops $100
Risk appetite deteriorated over the week as the Iran conflict turned oil from a fading war-premium story into a renewed stagflation shock. Early equity relief on reserve-release plans and Trump’s de-escalation remarks gave way to selling as Gulf shipping attacks, Hormuz mining concerns and infrastructure strikes pushed crude above $100. Higher energy prices lifted breakeven and rate concerns, supported energy equities, pressured broad beta and left weekend positioning tied to escort plans and emergency barrels.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent swung from the high $80s after IEA reserve-release headlines to $103.14 on Friday as tanker attacks, Kharg Island strikes, Hormuz threats and Gulf infrastructure damage overwhelmed the policy response.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 reversed early-week gains and fell into Thursday and Friday, while the two-year yield posted its biggest daily rise since May and traders no longer fully priced one 2026 Fed cut.• Energy/Sectors: XLE and Chevron benefited from the crude spike, while airlines, autos, retailers and other fuel-sensitive cyclicals lagged; CF rallied on nitrogen-supply risk and aluminum rose on Gulf shipping disruptions.• Credit/Funding: Record investment-grade issuance, including Amazon’s $37 billion deal, showed demand remained open, but spreads widened and private-credit redemption limits kept funding stress in view.• Tech/Single Names: Nvidia found support from AI demand, ByteDance deployment reports and a pulled AI-chip export rule, while Oracle rallied on cloud growth and Adobe fell on leadership and outlook concerns.
Oil erases spike after Dubai contains fuel-tank fire
Crude risk defined the day, but the market’s first reaction faded as emergency barrels, a potential Hormuz escort plan and contained infrastructure damage limited the impulse to de-risk. US equity futures recovered into the evening even as the conflict looked set to last weeks rather than days, leaving the tape more sensitive to shipping and supply-offset headlines than to each new attack claim.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent initially traded above $106 and WTI near $101.50 after Gulf attacks widened, including Saudi drone intercepts and a drone-related fuel-tank fire near Dubai airport. Brent later erased nearly all of the move after Dubai said the fire was contained and no injuries were reported.• Supply/Naval: The IEA said emergency barrels for Asia and Oceania were available immediately, while the US framed its 172mn-barrel reserve draw as an exchange. The White House was also reported to be preparing a multinational Hormuz escort plan, though Japan and Australia resisted sending ships.• Equities/Risk: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipped during the crude spike but turned modestly positive as oil faded.• Metals/Trade: Aluminum rose after Aluminium Bahrain began shutting capacity tied to Gulf shipping disruptions, while soybeans fell after Trump tied a Xi summit to China helping secure Hormuz.
Oil erases gains as Dubai contains airport-area tank fire
Risk pricing stabilized despite fresh Gulf attacks, with crude giving back its opening spike and US futures turning positive while policy pressure shifted toward China and allies.• Oil/Markets: Brent erased nearly all of an almost 3% opening gain, briefly turning negative below $103 before trading around $104; US equity futures rose about 0.2%-0.3%.• Gulf Security: Dubai said a drone-related incident damaged a fuel tank near its international airport; no injuries were reported and authorities later said the fire was contained.• China/Trade: Reuters said Chinese negotiators were open to more US farm purchases, but Trump threatened to delay his Xi summit unless Beijing helps secure Hormuz; soybeans fell more than 2%.• Policy/Metals: Japan began releasing oil reserves, Australia ruled out sending ships to Hormuz, and LME aluminum rose as much as 1.6% on Gulf smelter disruption.
Oil tops $106 while US readies Hormuz escort coalition
Oil risk re-priced higher into the futures open, but the broader tape showed only modest de-risking as traders weighed a possible escort plan against a longer war.• Oil/Markets: Brent rose more than 3% past $106 and WTI traded near $101.50; S&P 500 futures fell about 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures more than 0.3%.• Hormuz/Naval: WSJ reported the White House may announce this week that several countries agreed to escort ships through Hormuz, though timing remains undecided and participating countries were not named.• SPR/Oil: The Energy Department clarified the 172mn-barrel US reserve draw will be an exchange, not an outright sale, starting with an 86mn-barrel loan expected to reach market this week.• War/Duration: NEC Director Kevin Hassett said the Pentagon estimates the war could last four to six weeks.• Security: Kataib Hezbollah claimed five missiles hit Baghdad airport, injuring four people.
IEA details immediate Asian oil releases as Iran rejects US negotiations
Reserve-release details offered the clearest supply offset, but diplomacy looked no closer to a cease-fire and war-related industrial disruptions broadened.• Oil/IEA: The IEA said emergency barrels for Asia and Oceania will be available immediately, with Europe and the Americas following by end-March; members filed plans for about two-thirds of the 400mn-barrel release.• Iran/Diplomacy: Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS Iran never sought talks or a cease-fire and would defend itself “as long as it takes,” contradicting Trump’s claim that Tehran wanted a deal.• Hormuz/Shipping: Araghchi said countries have asked Iran for safe passage and that its military had allowed one group of vessels through; Bloomberg tracked an Iran-linked supertanker headed for China.• Metals: Aluminium Bahrain began shutting three lines, 19% of its 1.6mn-ton capacity, due to Hormuz-linked alumina and shipping disruptions.• Defense: The Pentagon tester said F-35 software upgrades stagnated, pressuring LMT.
Oil tops $106 after Gulf attacks widen
Oil risk rose further despite a partial UAE supply reversal, as regional attacks broadened and allied naval commitments remained uncertain.• Oil/Ports: Brent rose past $106, up more than 3% in early trading; Bloomberg said Fujairah oil-loading operations had resumed after Saturday’s drone strike and fire.• Gulf/Military: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted at least 10 drones over Riyadh and eastern regions. Iran denied involvement but claimed fresh missile and drone strikes on US and Israeli targets, including Al-Dhafra, Harir, Ali Al-Salem and Camp Arifjan.• Hormuz/Naval: Japan said the bar for sending warships was “extremely high,” South Korea said it would review the request, and the UK discussed autonomous mine-hunting equipment.• Refined Products: Fuel oil tightened sharply, with Singapore near $140/bbl, Fujairah near $160 and some low-emission grades at $175.