Mar 6, 2026

Kuwait declares force majeure as UAE trims offshore oil output

Energy-supply risk worsened as Gulf producers shifted from precautionary cuts to contract disruptions, while strikes hit urban and refining assets.• Energy/Supply: Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure on crude and product sales; ADNOC said it was managing offshore output because storage is filling as Hormuz tanker traffic remains virtually halted.• Gulf/Property: Dubai said interception debris killed a driver in Al Barsha and damaged the 23 Marina Tower facade, lifting confirmed UAE attack deaths to four.• Refining/War: Iranian media reported strikes on oil depots near Tehran; the Guards said they fired Kheibar Shekan missiles toward Haifa’s refinery in response.• Policy/Rates: Trump said oil prices may rise but would fall “very fast,” claimed 70% of Iranian missile launchers were knocked out, and left ground troops conditional on a “very good reason.”• Credit: Barclays and Morgan Stanley favored buying CDS protection; Bloomberg said high-grade protection costs rose about 3 bp even as cash spreads narrowed.

Oil rises after Iran hits Gulf energy targets

War-risk widened across Gulf energy assets and weekend proxy markets, with confirmed supply cuts and new strikes outweighing Tehran’s de-escalation language.• Energy/Geopolitics: Iran’s Guards said they hit the Louise P tanker off Jubail; UKMTO said most crew were evacuated. Saudi officials said Aramco’s 250,000 b/d Berri field was targeted, with minor debris damage after interception.• Oil/Markets: Kuwait confirmed precautionary cuts to crude and refinery output. Hyperliquid weekend oil futures rose 4% to $92, while gold gained 1.5% to $5,170.• Gulf Defense: The UAE said it intercepted 15 of 16 ballistic missiles and 119 of 121 drones Saturday, contradicting Iran’s claim that it was not attacking neighbors.• Military/Policy: Trump threatened new Iranian targets; the U.S. began using British bases, and the Army is rushing Ukraine-tested counterdrone systems to the region.

Dubai flights resume after drone strike disrupts airport

Energy shock and Gulf aviation disruptions stayed the main market channels, while Washington moved to accelerate Israeli resupply.• Gulf/Aviation: Dubai International briefly suspended operations after debris from an intercepted strike; Emirates resumed, and Qatar Airways began relief flights after airspace reopened.• Iran/Gulf: Pezeshkian apologized and said Iran would stop attacking neighbors unless attacks originated there, but alerts still sounded in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.• Defense/Israel: The State Department invoked emergency authority to bypass Congress for more than 20,000 bombs to Israel, valued at about $658 million.• Energy/Inflation: AAA said U.S. gasoline averaged $3.41 a gallon, up 14% in a week; India raised household LPG prices 7%.

Saudi oilfield targeted as Israel strikes Tehran airport

War-risk headlines broadened after the close, while idiosyncratic health-care and index news drove sharp single-name moves.• Gulf Energy: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 20 drones aimed at the 1 million b/d Shaybah oil field, plus three missiles toward Prince Sultan Air Base.• Iran/Israel: Israel began a broad wave of strikes on Tehran government infrastructure; Iranian state media said the area near Mehrabad Airport was hit.• Oil Policy: Bessent said Treasury may “unsanction” more Russian oil, citing hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels already on the water.• Biotech/FDA: FDA biologics chief Vinay Prasad will leave next month; UniQure rose as much as 70% after hours and Regenxbio as much as 29%.• Obesity Drugs: Novo Nordisk plans to sell weight-loss drugs through Hims & Hers; HIMS jumped 40% after hours.

US unveils Hormuz reinsurance after Brent settles above $92

Washington moved from promises to a concrete shipping backstop, but war-risk, energy and credit stress remained elevated into the close.• Energy/Shipping: The U.S. DFC announced up to $20 billion of rolling maritime reinsurance for Gulf vessels, initially covering hull, machinery and cargo; the release did not address Navy escorts.• Oil/Inflation: Brent settled above $92, up about 27%-30% for the week, while WTI traded near $92 and one-year CPI swaps rose to about 2.9%.• Defense: Trump said CEOs from BAE, Boeing, Honeywell, L3Harris, Lockheed, Northrop and Raytheon agreed to quadruple production of “Exquisite Class” weapons.• Credit/Financials: Western Alliance fell after flagging a roughly $126 million First Brands charge; Pimco warned private debt should face a “full-blown default cycle.”• Tech/AI: Oracle and OpenAI dropped plans to expand Crusoe’s Abilene data center from 1.2GW to 2.0GW.

Oil tops $91 after Kuwait cuts output

Oil and dollar strength, not the weak jobs print, dominated trading as the Gulf supply shock spread into metals, airlines and credit.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent rose above $91 after WSJ reported Kuwait began cutting output at some fields because storage filled; Trump ruled out Iran talks except “unconditional surrender.”• Markets/Rates: The initial Treasury rally reversed; 10-year yields rose to about 4.16%, Bloomberg’s dollar gauge gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and IG CDX widened to 58.55 bp, the worst since May.• Credit/Private Funds: BlackRock fell 7.2% after its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund capped redemptions at 5% versus 9.3% requested.• Airlines/Commodities: Deutsche Bank called jet-fuel spreads an “existential threat” to airlines; Bloomberg said US jet fuel topped $4/gallon, while aluminum hit four-year highs and Qatar helium shutdowns lifted spot prices 35%-50%.

Payrolls shrink as Brent hits $90

Markets faced stagflation pressure after a negative payroll print collided with another oil leg higher; bonds rallied on growth risk while equity futures stayed lower.• Macro/Rates: February payrolls fell 92,000 versus expectations for a roughly 50,000 gain; unemployment rose to 4.4%, revisions cut 69,000 jobs, and private payrolls dropped 86,000, the worst since 2020.• Markets/Energy: Brent reached $90 as Hormuz traffic remained largely halted; S&P 500 futures fell 0.75% and Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 1%, while 10-year yields fell to about 4.10% and swaps priced 44 bp of 2026 Fed cuts.• Shipping/Insurance: London reinsurers issued seven-day cancellations of marine war-risk cover; buyback costs reportedly tripled to $750,000 per vessel.• Aviation/Fuel: Northwest Europe jet fuel jumped 75% in a week to $1,445.25/ton, pressuring airlines.• Gulf Escalation: Tasnim said a U.S.-owned tanker near Kuwait was attacked and on fire, but the vessel was not identified.

Oil tops $90 after Hormuz traffic nearly halts

Energy inflation risk returned sharply, with shipping disruptions broadening from tankers into container routes and rates markets repricing for stickier inflation.• Oil/Inflation: WTI topped $90, up 12.2% on the day and 35.6% for the week, while AAA gasoline reached $3.32 a gallon, the highest since September 2024.• Shipping/Supply: JMIC said Hormuz transits fell to single digits, with only two confirmed commercial crossings in 24 hours; Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended key Middle East services.• Rates/Policy: European money markets fully priced an ECB hike this year; German two-year yields are up 30 bp since last Friday. The EU saw no case yet for releasing oil stocks.• Company News: Marvell jumped 18% after AI-driven results and guidance beat expectations; Nike slipped 1.7% on a planned $300 million restructuring charge.

Oil falls as global funds dump Asian equities

Energy relief broadened overnight, but conflict spillovers kept pressure on EM risk, fertilizers and defense supply chains.• Oil/Supply: Brent and WTI pulled back about 2% after the U.S. waiver for India; Bloomberg tracked more than 15 million barrels of Russian crude already near India and said refiners bought over 10 million barrels recently.• Gulf Defense: Kuwait said it had engaged 212 ballistic missiles and 394 drones since the escalation began; Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base, and Qatar stopped a drone attack on Al-Udeid.• EM Flows: EM equities and currencies were on pace for their worst week since March 2020; foreign funds sold $11 billion of developing-Asia shares, including a record $7.9 billion from Taiwan.• Fertilizers: U.S. urea reached $550/short ton and Egyptian granular urea rose 27% to $620/ton as buyers rushed supplies moving through Hormuz.

Oil closes at 2024 high before U.S. grants India waiver

Late news kept energy and defense risk elevated, though Asia saw some relief as crude and the dollar slipped. U.S. retail earnings split, and Washington added supply flexibility for India.• Oil/Markets: U.S. crude settled up 8.5% at $81.01, its highest since July 2024 and biggest one-day gain since 2020; the Dow closed down 784 points, or 1.6%.• Energy Policy: Treasury issued a 30-day waiver letting Indian refiners buy Russian crude and products already stranded at sea, expiring April 4; Bloomberg said oil briefly cooled.• Defense/Iran: Hegseth said U.S. firepower over Iran is about to “surge dramatically” after UK base access; Centcom said Iranian ballistic attacks are down 90%.• Gulf Spillover: Kuwait reported 67 armed-forces injuries and two deaths; WSJ said the UAE is weighing freezing billions in Iranian assets, not a decided action.• Retail: Costco profit beat expectations, while Gap missed after Old Navy and Athleta underperformed.

Dow drops 1,000 points after Bahrain refinery strike widens energy risk

Risk-off trade deepened while Gulf infrastructure and airspace disruptions broadened, with energy the only S&P 500 sector higher.• Markets/Energy: The Dow fell more than 1,000 points; Brent traded near $84 and WTI above $77 after Bahrain said an Iranian missile hit a Bapco refinery unit, though the fire was contained and operations continued.• Aviation/Spillover: Azerbaijan closed part of its airspace after saying four Iranian drones targeted civilian sites; missiles near Dubai forced an Air France evacuation charter to turn back.• Tech/Chips: Software outperformed sharply, with IGV up about 6.5% versus a 5.7% drop in SOXX; NVDA fell more than 1% on reported draft U.S. AI-chip export curbs.• Banks/Policy: WFC’s final fake-accounts consent order was terminated, while MS fell about 2.6% after reports of 2,500 layoffs.

Rate-cut bets fade after energy prices lift inflation risk

Rates and energy logistics drove the market read, with inflation risk cutting Fed-easing odds while Gulf rerouting and insurance plans sought to keep barrels moving.• Rates/Macro: CME futures now imply less than a 50% chance of at least two Fed cuts in 2026, down from 79% at last week’s end, after energy prices rose and claims stayed subdued.• Energy/Shipping: Saudi Aramco is diverting more crude exports to Yanbu via its 5 million b/d East-West pipeline; Lloyd’s underwriters said private Hormuz war-risk cover remains available.• Regional Spillover: Qatar reported another missile attack, while Azerbaijan banned Iranian trucks at all border crossings; Iran denied launching the drones and blamed Israel.• Company News: Broadcom rose about 7% premarket after results beat forecasts and AI revenue more than doubled; ICE invested in OKX at a $25 billion valuation.

Iranian drones hit Azerbaijan as Kospi rebounds nearly 10%

Risk signals were mixed: Asian equities stabilized, but the conflict widened toward Azerbaijan and China took tentative steps on energy and diplomacy.• Regional Spillover: Azerbaijan said Iranian drones hit Nakhchivan, damaging an airport terminal, injuring two civilians and prompting a warning of possible retaliation; the route matters because Israel receives Azerbaijani crude via Turkey.• Asia Equities: South Korea’s Kospi rose nearly 10% after Wednesday’s 12% rout, triggering circuit breakers; Samsung Electronics gained 11.3%, SK Hynix 10.8% and Hyundai Motor 9.4%.• China/Energy: A senior Chinese state-firm executive said China’s top planning officials verbally told companies to suspend refined-oil exports; the report was not framed as a public written order.• Diplomacy/Military: China said it would send a Middle East envoy, while Israel launched another broad wave of strikes on Tehran and hit Hezbollah command centers in Beirut.

Tanker leaks oil off Kuwait as Saudi Arabia intercepts missiles

Maritime and regional spillover risks worsened, adding fresh pressure to energy logistics and keeping defense demand in focus.• Maritime/Energy: A tanker anchored 30 nautical miles southeast of Kuwait reported a large port-side explosion, took on water and leaked oil from a cargo tank; the crew was safe.• Hormuz/LNG: WSJ reported about 3,000 vessels are trapped in the Gulf, including the LNG tanker Gaslog Skagen with 155,000 cubic meters of LNG, after an IRGC radio warning barred Strait of Hormuz navigation.• Gulf Security: Saudi Arabia said it destroyed three cruise missiles and three drones near Al-Kharj and another drone near Al-Jawf; the origin was not specified.• Defense Supply: WSJ said Patriot use in the Iran war is draining interceptors needed by Ukraine and could force U.S. pulls from other regional stockpiles.