May 22, 2026

Trump says Iran deal is near as hyperscaler CDS volumes surge

Geopolitical risk skewed toward de-escalation, while AI financing and inflation data added fresh cross-asset pressure points.• Iran/Oil: Trump said an Iran deal was “largely negotiated” and would reopen Hormuz; Iranian officials told NYT they accepted an MOU with free traffic, no tolls, $25 billion in asset releases and nuclear talks deferred 30-60 days, though terms remain unofficial.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg said April PCE is expected to rise 3.8% year over year, with core inflation at its fastest pace since late 2023.• AI/Credit: Hyperscalers have borrowed more than $250 billion for AI, pushing banks toward exposure limits; BofA’s monthly hyperscaler CDS volumes are up tenfold since early 2025.• Delivery: Delivery Hero confirmed Uber’s €33-a-share proposal and Uber’s nearly 20% stake plus 5.6% options exposure.• Defense: The US warned Japan that 400 Tomahawk deliveries could be delayed by up to two years.

Uber, DoorDash court Delivery Hero holders as Nvidia presses Super Micro on compliance

Deal risk, AI compliance and energy supply drove the actionable tape, with Europe adding fresh rate pressure.• Food Delivery: FT said Uber and DoorDash sounded out Delivery Hero investors; holders want above €40 a share, while Uber’s roughly €33 proposal was rebuffed and both suitors may walk.• AI Hardware: Jensen Huang urged Super Micro to tighten compliance after Taiwan detained three people over alleged fraudulent AI-server exports; the Taiwan case is separate from a US smuggling prosecution tied to Super Micro’s co-founder.• Energy: A drone attack sparked fires at Russia’s Novorossiysk oil depot and terminal. Separately, US producers are adding rigs and capex, including Diamondback and Continental, to capture $100 crude.• Rates/Europe: ECB’s Stournaras said a June rate hike may be needed to protect credibility as inflation forecasts worsen without a US-Iran peace deal.

US weighs chip tariffs as SpaceX Starship test succeeds

Risk news tilted toward AI infrastructure, trade frictions and pre-IPO space validation, with several single-name read-throughs.• Space/IPO: SpaceX’s redesigned Starship deployed mock satellites in a key pre-IPO test; reports differed on orbit/sub-orbit and splashdown details.• Semis/AI: The White House approved a secret $9 billion request for intelligence-agency AI chips, partly for Nvidia Grace Blackwell infrastructure; Congress must approve it, with $800 million reprogrammed now.• Semis/Trade: USTR Greer said chip-import tariffs are under consideration to spur reshoring, though no immediate levies are planned.• Streaming/Trade: The US ambassador accused Canada of discriminatory barriers after regulators lifted Netflix/Disney+ local-content payments to 15% of Canadian revenue from 5%.• AI Stakes: Zoom disclosed its Anthropic stake is worth about $1.27 billion, with roughly $1 billion in gains.

S&P 500 clinches eighth weekly gain as Uber studies Delivery Hero takeover

Stocks finished stronger despite rates and geopolitical noise, while deal reports and executive moves kept single-name risk active.• Markets/Fed: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and clinched an eighth straight weekly gain; the Dow set its ninth 2026 closing record. Trump told Warsh to be independent at swearing-in, then said rates should come down.• Energy/Iran: Brent closed up 0.9% at $103.54. Baker Hughes said US oil rigs rose by 10 to 425, the biggest weekly increase since April 2022, while Trump canceled weekend plans to remain in Washington amid Iran talks.• Deals: Bloomberg reported Uber is studying a full Delivery Hero takeover after building a 19.5% stake; Lantheus is weighing a roughly $7 billion sale after a Curium approach.• Retail: WSJ reported Sam’s Club COO Tom Ward and Walmart US store-operations head Cedric Clark are leaving after CEO John Furner’s February handoff.

Rate-hike bets rise after Waller warns cuts are no longer likely

Rates risk moved back to the center of the tape, even as AI and space enthusiasm kept equity indexes firm.• Rates/Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the next move is as likely to be a hike as a cut and urged dropping easing-bias language; swaps now fully price a 25 bp Fed hike by end-2026.• Macro/Consumer: University of Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 44.8 from 49.8, below all forecasts, while long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 was on pace for an eighth weekly gain; Brent traded near $104, the 10-year yield rose to 4.58%, and SoftBank’s two-day AI-driven gain reached 34%.• Space/Equities: SpaceX IPO excitement lifted AST SpaceMobile and Virgin Galactic more than 9%, with Rocket Lab up about 7%.• Retail/M&A: GameStop slipped about 1.7% after seeking authority to raise its share count while pursuing eBay.

Futu tumbles after China targets cross-border brokers

Premarket risk was mixed: China regulatory action hit online brokers, while deal flow and sticky inflation/rate risks dominated elsewhere.• China Brokers: CSRC plans to confiscate illegal gains and levy severe penalties on Futu, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge; FUTU fell 35% and TIGR as much as 47% premarket.• Utilities/Deals: NextEra proposed a $420 billion all-stock merger with Dominion at nearly $76 a share, a 23% premium, targeting AI-driven power demand; regulatory scrutiny is likely.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg economists lifted US inflation forecasts above 3% through year-end and split on a December Fed cut; Kevin Warsh is sworn in today as Fed chair.• Energy/Geopolitics: Rubio cited “slight progress” in mediated Iran talks but said a deal is uncertain; oil rose with Hormuz and enrichment disputes unresolved.

UK data weaken as CVC and GBL bid for Recordati

Overnight news leaned macro-negative in Europe and the UK, partly offset by signs Gulf oil cargoes are still moving and fresh corporate demand signals.• UK Macro: April borrowing hit £24.3 billion, above the £20.9 billion watchdog forecast, while retail sales fell 1.3% versus the 0.6% decline expected.• Energy/Shipping: Japan said a tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude could dock Monday, the first Persian Gulf oil shipment to transit Hormuz since the war began.• Deals/Healthcare: CVC and GBL offered €51.29 a share for Recordati, valuing the Italian drugmaker at more than $12 billion, with committed financing and a planned delisting.• AI/Consumer Tech: DeepSeek advanced a potential $10 billion round at a $45 billion valuation; Nintendo asked suppliers for about 20 million Switch 2 units, 20% above guidance.

Ross jumps as House pulls Iran war vote

After-hours news was more stock-specific than macro, with off-price retail strength, renewed oil uncertainty and fresh EV/legal risk standing out while AI-linked industrial demand remained firm.• Retail: Ross Stores rose as much as 9.6% after raising its full-year outlook; Q1 revenue was $6.01 billion, EPS was $2.02 and same-store sales rose a record 17%.• Energy/Policy: WTI rebounded toward $98 after three declines as Iranian comments on uranium and Hormuz tolls complicated optimism over US-Iran negotiations; House Republicans pulled an Iran war-powers vote after lacking votes to defeat it.• EVs: North Carolina sued VinFast to reclaim the Chatham County factory site, citing missed construction, job and July 2026 operating milestones tied to a $3 billion, 7,500-job pledge.• AI/Industrials: Kawasaki Heavy rallied up to 12% on a confirmed Nvidia, Microsoft and Fujitsu physical-AI robotics collaboration; Lenovo jumped 13% after AI products reached 38% of sales.

Dow hits record after oil falls on Iran peace hopes

Risk tone improved into the close on Iran-deal hopes, but Washington policy risk and stock-specific after-hours moves kept dispersion high.• Markets/Energy: The Dow closed at a record 50,286; Brent fell 2.3% to $102.58 after touching $108, and 10-year yields approached 4.55% as Treasuries erased losses.• AI/Regulation: Trump postponed an AI order that would have asked major model developers to preview systems to the government, saying he feared slowing the US against China.• Policy/Airlines: Senate Republicans delayed the $72 billion immigration bill until June amid a revolt over Trump’s $1.8 billion DOJ fund; DHS separately reiterated a threat to cut airport customs in sanctuary cities, though Transportation Secretary Duffy rejected rerouting flights.• Afterhours/Deals: Estée Lauder rose 11.5% postmarket after ending Puig merger talks; Workday rallied on a Q1 beat, and IMAX was reported to be exploring a sale.

US factory PMI jumps as Turkish stocks slide

Risk news turned more inflationary, with stronger US factory activity and higher mortgage rates offset by fresh emerging-market political stress and selective single-name gains.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US factory PMI rose to 55.3 in May, the fastest expansion in four years, but input costs hit the highest since June 2022 and composite employment contracted.• Turkey: Turkish stocks fell more than 6% after a court removed the main opposition party’s leader; state lenders sold about $6 billion to defend the lira, traders told Bloomberg.• Housing: Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the highest since August, pressuring builders into the spring selling season.• AI/Software: Anthropic is in early talks to rent Microsoft Maia AI chips, The Information reported; Microsoft rose about 2%.• Media: Spotify rose roughly 11% after setting 1 billion-subscriber and $100 billion revenue targets.

Quantum stocks jump as Brent tops $107

Premarket risk tone softened as oil and rates firmed, but stock-specific moves were led by government support for quantum computing, retail margin pressure and obesity-drug data.• Quantum: The US will award $2 billion to nine quantum-computing firms and take minority equity stakes; IBM is slated for $1 billion, with IBM up more than 7% premarket, GlobalFoundries up 13%, D-Wave up 16% and Rigetti up about 15%.• Energy/Rates: Brent rose above $107 and the 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4.6% after Reuters reported Iran’s Supreme Leader opposed sending enriched uranium abroad.• Retail: Walmart’s US comps rose 4.1% and e-commerce grew 26%, but higher fuel costs cut operating-profit growth by 2.5 points and the company left full-year guidance unchanged.• Pharma: Lilly said retatrutide cut weight by 28.3% over 80 weeks in a late-stage obesity trial, with 11% high-dose discontinuations.

Euro-zone activity shrinks as AMD commits $10 billion to Taiwan

European PMIs added a stagflationary macro shock, while AI supply-chain news stayed active and travel demand showed clearer fuel-war pressure.• Europe/Macro: Euro-zone composite PMI fell to 47.5, the weakest in 2.5 years, with S&P warning inflation could approach 4%; French activity sank to 43.5, the worst since 2020.• UK/Macro: UK private-sector output contracted for the first time in more than a year, with PMI at 48.5; firms cut jobs for a 20th month.• AI/Chips: AMD pledged more than $10 billion for Taiwan partnerships and packaging capacity, while Taiwanese prosecutors sought to detain three people over alleged Nvidia server smuggling via Super Micro.• Airlines: EasyJet said summer bookings were 58% sold, down 2 points year over year, and raised minimum ticket prices to offset fuel costs.