Jul 3, 2026

Tankers turn back in Hormuz as clean-power costs face subsidy shock

Energy headlines were mixed: physical shipping frictions persisted in Hormuz, but crude-supply commentary leaned bearish, while US policy changes added pressure to clean-power economics.• Oil/Hormuz: At least eight commodity ships turned back while exiting the Persian Gulf, and some later used an Iran-directed route; daily Hormuz crossings remain below pre-war levels.• Oil/Supply: TotalEnergies’ CEO said Middle East producers are desperate to sell crude stockpiles, though fuel markets may take three to four months to rebalance.• Clean Power: LevelTen said US wind and solar PPA prices could rise 40%-120% after IRA subsidies end, with Texas potentially moving from $55 to $121/MWh.• Regulation/Energy: The Trump administration proposed eliminating 702 rules, including energy-project review and efficiency standards, and claimed $1.5T of savings by September.

Micron expands Japan HBM capacity as SK Hynix ADR plans advance

Company news outweighed macro in thin holiday trading: AI-memory capex and a potential record ADR sale supported chip and bank-fee themes, while China added regulatory risk for internet platforms.• Semis: Micron broke ground on a ¥1.5T ($9.3B) Hiroshima expansion to make advanced memory, including HBM, with shipments expected around summer 2028 and up to ¥500B in Japanese support.• Capital Markets: SK Hynix is considering a US listing of up to 2.5% of shares, Bloomberg said; a roughly $26.5B sale could generate more than $130M in fees for BAC, C, GS and JPM.• China Internet: Beijing proposed E-Commerce Law amendments expanding platform responsibilities and digital-economy oversight, adding another regulatory watch item for China internet ADRs.• Gaming/Retail: FT said Sony will stop offering physical PlayStation games from January 2028; digital was 85% of game sales last quarter, pressuring resale channels such as GameStop.• Small Caps: WSJ said the Russell 2000 rose about 22% in 1H, its best first half since 1991.

OPEC output jumps as PJM demand hits record

Supply headlines leaned bearish for crude, while heat, data-center power demand and fresh deal speculation drove the clearest equity angles.• Oil: OPEC output rose 2.34 million b/d in June to 18.75 million after Gulf exports through Hormuz recovered; delegates expect OPEC+ to consider another 188,000 b/d August quota increase Sunday.• Power: PJM said demand likely topped its 165.563GW 2006 record Thursday as Mid-Atlantic heat exceeded 100F, with a formal peak figure due after demand-response calculations.• Deals: GFL Environmental is weighing a take-private after preliminary buyout-firm interest; its $13.5B equity value and about $7.1B debt could complicate financing.• AI/Data Centers: CPP Investments committed $1.75B to EQT’s EdgeConneX-led AI infrastructure buildout, which targets more than 10GW of additional data centers.• Lithium: SQM-Codelco’s Novandino outlined a $3B plan to lift Chilean lithium output more than 70%, though analysts flagged execution and timing risks.

Oil support builds after Russian fuel shortages spread

Energy and materials carried the clearest market signals, while several single-name regulatory and order-book items added idiosyncratic risk.• Energy: Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest Black Sea oil-port city, said no gasoline was being sold at filling stations, and Russia lifted June refiner subsidies to 210.6B rubles, the highest since December 2023.• Materials: China’s state iron-ore buyer expanded restrictions on Fortescue to new Super Special Fines purchases, escalating beyond portside inventory curbs.• Aerospace: Gulf carriers are seeking Boeing and Airbus delivery slots that could open if Air India delays orders; Etihad is close to about six 787 slots, Bloomberg said.• Software/Regulation: A senior UK health official recused herself from Palantir NHS contract-extension decisions after conflict-of-interest questions.• Gaming: European regulators are tightening age-check and loot-box rules; chance-based mechanics generated $23B globally last year.

Korean stocks rebound as US equity funds post $17.2 billion outflow

Global risk was firmer in holiday-thinned trade, but flows and commodities news stayed cautious: Korea’s chip rebound contrasted with fresh US equity outflows, while physical oil indicators pointed to more supply.• Korea Semis: The Kospi rose as much as 5.5%; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each gained more than 9% after Anthropic-Samsung custom-chip talks were reported.• Oil/LNG: Citi forecast Brent at $60-$65 by year-end and advised selling rallies; TotalEnergies offered Iraqi crude to Asia, and Qatar LNG traffic showed a tentative Hormuz restart.• Fund Flows: BofA said US equity funds lost $17.2B in the week to July 1, the largest outflow since March; Japan drew $1.9B.• Japan/FX: Rengo wage deals averaged 5.01%, supporting BOJ policy-normalization risk.• Credit/Banks: Santé Cie term loans fell toward 50 after France froze €45.5M; HSBC is weighing an Asia-Pacific SRT.

Canada backs Pacific oil pipeline as yen intervention risk rises

Energy infrastructure, private-credit liquidity and FX intervention risk were the main overnight developments, with Asia macro data mixed but not uniformly weak.• Canada Energy: Ottawa and Alberta backed a proposed 1 million b/d oil pipeline to British Columbia’s coast; state-owned Trans Mountain would build it, Pembina may take 10%, and estimated costs are C$35.2B-C$43.7B.• Private Credit: WSJ said investors sought $15.6B from large private-credit funds in 2Q, up from $13.9B, while managers returned $5.9B; Apollo, Ares and HPS saw requests rise.• FX/Rates: Japan repeated it is ready to act on the yen, now near 161 per dollar, while traders bought hedges for thin US holiday liquidity.• China Macro: The private services PMI beat at 54.1, but the PBOC cut June bond purchases to 10B yuan, the least in nine months.

Dow hits record as Trump presses Fed reshaping

Rotation, Fed-governance risk and energy/power stress dominated late trading, while several deal reports added single-name catalysts.• Markets/Rates: The Dow closed at a record 52,900, up 1.1%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.8% and SOX dropped 5.4%; two-year yields and the dollar slipped after weak payrolls.• Fed: Trump said he will keep trying to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and allies are exploring ways to reshape the board; the Supreme Court let Cook remain while litigation continues.• Oil/Power: WTI held near $68 and Brent closed below $72 as Hormuz tanker flows improved; the prompt spread briefly flipped to contango. Eastern heat sent New England spot power up more than 240%.• Deals: Bloomberg said O’Reilly made a cash bid for Genuine Parts’ auto-parts unit, potentially worth $10B-plus; FT said Lockheed leads talks for Ultra Maritime at about $3.5B.

Chip stocks slide as QTS abandons Virginia data-center project

Tech led the deterioration, with the AI hardware trade selling off despite lower yields, while data-center execution and private-credit liquidity risks widened.• Semis: The SOX fell as much as 6%, putting it on pace for a 12% two-day drop; Teradyne, Entegris and KLA lost more than 10%, while Lam and Applied fell about 8%.• Data Centers: Blackstone’s QTS abandoned its 800-plus-acre piece of Virginia’s Digital Gateway after court setbacks and Compass Datacenters’ exit left utility costs harder to share.• Private Credit: Bloomberg estimates more than $14.5B remains trapped across private-credit funds versus $8.6B returned; queues may take up to eight quarters to clear.• Energy: US gasoline crack spreads topped $53/bbl, near 2022 highs, supporting refiners despite Brent near $71.50 as Hormuz-related logistics remain tight.• Tesla: A Texas driver was charged with manslaughter after a fatal Model 3 crash; Tesla disputed his Full Self-Driving claim, and NHTSA is investigating.

Stocks rise after June payrolls miss forecasts

Softer labor data pushed rates lower and supported risk, while EV delivery beats and private-credit outflows drove single-name moves.• Macro/Rates: June payrolls rose 57,000 versus roughly 115,000 expected, with a 74,000 downward revision; unemployment fell to 4.2% as participation dropped to 61.5%. Two-year yields fell about 6 bp and July hike odds slid to roughly 20%.• EVs: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in 2Q, up about 25% and well above estimates; shares rose premarket. Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles and raised 2026 delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000.• Private Credit: Blue Owl funds received $4.7B of 2Q redemption requests and again capped withdrawals at 5%, though requests eased from $5.4B.• Energy: Saudi crude exports recovered toward prewar levels at 6.3M b/d, adding pressure to oil prices as Hormuz traffic normalized.

Google loses Android appeal as US and China target farm tariff cuts

Tech risk remained under pressure ahead of payrolls, while fresh antitrust, trade and geopolitical headlines added single-name and sector catalysts.• Alphabet: Google lost its final EU court fight over the Android antitrust case, leaving a €4.12B/$4.7B fine in place; GOOGL fell about 1% premarket.• Trade/Agriculture: China said it and the US agreed in principle to reciprocal tariff reductions on some agricultural products to preserve last year’s trade truce.• Chips: Nvidia and Micron were lower premarket after Asian memory stocks slid again; Jefferies tied the move to renewed concern that AI compute capacity has been overbuilt.• Russia/Ukraine: Russia launched 74 missiles and 476 drones at Ukraine, Kyiv’s death toll rose to 18, and the EU proposed new sanctions.• Pharma: Roche said divarasib beat Amgen/BMS KRAS drugs in a late-stage lung-cancer trial; detailed survival data are pending.

OpenAI weighs US stake as semis extend selloff

Asian risk stayed fragile: AI policy and hardware headlines dominated, while Japan rates and yen pressure added macro risk.• AI Policy: FT said OpenAI discussed giving Washington a 5% stake and asking other leading AI developers to do the same; talks are early and may require Congress.• Semis/Apple: Kioxia fell as much as 15%, while Samsung and SK Hynix lost about 5%, after Bloomberg said Apple is in talks with two Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese memory suppliers; no deal is final.• Nvidia: Nvidia outlined a DSX token-credit model that would give AI startups hardware access in exchange for future revenue sharing.• Japan Macro: Foreigners sold ¥3.12T of Japanese bonds in June, the most since 2023; the yen edged to 162.43 per dollar on intervention watch.• Oil: Iranian floating crude and condensate rose above 58M barrels, with over 90% lacking a clear destination.