Mar 25, 2026

Oil retreats after mediators dispute Trump's Iran pause claim

After-hours trading partially unwound the crude spike, but policy risk stayed elevated as diplomats challenged the White House's account and Fed officials leaned inflation-first.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent fell to almost $103 after Trump's post, and WTI dropped toward $93; mediators told WSJ Iran had not requested the 10-day pause and had not delivered a final response.• Rates/Fed: Lisa Cook said Iran makes inflation the bigger Fed risk; Michael Barr backed holding rates, while the 10-year closed at 4.415% and the two-year at 3.983%.• Equities: The Nasdaq closed in correction territory, down more than 10% from its October peak; Asian equity futures pointed lower after the US selloff.• Shutdown/Travel: Trump said he would order TSA agents paid as DHS funding talks stalled and airport lines worsened.• Spirits/M&A: Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman confirmed merger talks; Brown-Forman rose while Pernod fell.

Oil settles above $108 after Trump questions Iran deal

Risk assets weakened into the afternoon as oil finished at a fresh war-driven high and verification of Hormuz traffic remained disputed.• Oil/Markets: Brent settled up 5.7% at $108.01, its biggest gain since March 11; WTI rose 4.6% to $94.48, while the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq 2% and two-year yields reached 3.97%.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Trump said eight Pakistan-flagged tankers passed as an Iranian gesture, but Bloomberg tracking showed no sign of them; he also said taking control of Iran’s oil was an option.• War/Israel: Israel said more than 60 jets hit Iranian weapons facilities, while Hezbollah killed one person in Nahariya and Israel expanded its Lebanon ground operation.• Company News: Netflix raised US plans by $1-$2 monthly; Meta lifted its El Paso data-center commitment to more than $10B; Pernod Ricard is said to be exploring Brown-Forman.

Iran counters US plan as Trump says 10 tankers passed Hormuz

War headlines remained mixed: Tehran hardened its stated terms even as US officials claimed signs of tanker movement and an eventual off-ramp.• Iran/Diplomacy: Tasnim and FT said Iran formally responded to the US 15-point plan with counterproposals demanding reparations, an end to assassinations, guarantees against renewed war and recognition of its Hormuz authority.• Hormuz/Oil: Trump said Iran allowed 10 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers through the strait as a “present”; Bessent said escorts and reinsurance would start “soon,” while Brent stayed around $107.• Credit/Private Markets: Bloomberg estimated more than $4.6B of private-credit redemptions are trapped behind fund limits, with Blue Owl tender windows now in focus.• Mega-Cap Tech: Meta fell about 8%, losing roughly $119B in market value, after back-to-back youth-safety verdicts; Google and Snap remain exposed to similar litigation.• Housing/Rates: Freddie Mac said the 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.38%, the highest since September.

Oil nears $107 after Hormuz traffic stops

Risk tone weakened as the Hormuz shutdown showed harder evidence, oil extended gains and chip-specific pressure added to the futures decline.• Oil/Hormuz: FT tracking recorded zero Strait of Hormuz crossings in both directions Wednesday, the first such day since hostilities began; Brent was up nearly 5% near $107.• War/Command: Israel said it killed IRGC Navy chief Alireza Tangsiri and other senior naval officials; Iran had not confirmed his death.• Diplomacy: Pakistan said US-Iran indirect talks are taking place and Tehran is reviewing a 15-point US plan, contradicting Iran's public denial of negotiations.• Chips/AI: Micron, Western Digital and Seagate sold off after Google's TurboQuant compression tool raised fears of lower AI memory needs.• Macro/Rates: Initial jobless claims rose to 210,000, while continuing claims fell 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest since May 2024.

Oil tops $105 while Trump extends Iran deadline

War news kept crude bid and equities defensive, while policy and deal flow showed the conflict feeding inflation and infrastructure spending.• Oil/Diplomacy: Trump pushed the deadline for Iran to fully reopen Hormuz to April 6, but Brent still rose 3.4% above $105 as talks remained disputed.• War/Targets: Iran said it attacked a US base in Kuwait and a Saudi air base used by US forces; damage was not immediately clear.• War/Hormuz: Israeli officials told NYT they targeted IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, a key figure in the Hormuz shutdown; his status was unknown.• Macro/Rates: The OECD raised its US inflation forecast to 4.2% and expects US rates unchanged through 2026; ECB’s Nagel said an April hike is possible.• AI/Infrastructure: The US Army picked Carlyle and KKR-backed CyrusOne for multibillion-dollar data centers on bases under 50-year leases.

Oil rises while Asian stocks tumble on wider war risks

War spillovers worsened risk tone in Asia, with fresh transport, supply and credit stress adding to the inflation shock.• Markets/Oil: Brent rose 2.3% to $104.58, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.4%; the CSI 300 lost 1.1% and Hang Seng 1.9%.• War/Israel: Iran fired missiles toward Israel; authorities reported impacts near Kafr Qasim east of Tel Aviv and six minor injuries.• Shipping/Oil: A Turkish Suezmax carrying about 1 million barrels of Urals crude was disabled near the Bosporus after a suspected undersea attack; Turkey reported no spill or casualties.• Energy/Supply: Traders expect Saudi Aramco’s April shipments to China to fall to about 40 million barrels from 48 million in February, with India also below recent levels.• Credit/Policy: ING said private-credit stress and the war have lifted funding costs for some high-beta borrowers by as much as 400 bp; South Korea announced a $3.3B bond buyback.

Oil rises after Iran moves to formalize Hormuz tolls

Oil risk firmed again as Hormuz access, energy logistics and conflict spillovers outweighed still-contradictory diplomacy signals.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to charge security fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, with Fars saying it could be finalized next week; Brent rose as much as 1% to $103.27 in early Asia.• Diplomacy/War: Trump insisted Iran is negotiating, while Abbas Araghchi again denied talks and said only vessels from “friendly countries,” including China, Russia and India, had passed Hormuz.• Russia/Nuclear: FT, citing western intelligence, said Russia is close to completing drone shipments to Iran; Rosatom plans several evacuation rounds from Bushehr after projectiles hit the plant grounds.• LNG/Fuel: Asian and European buyers are seeking extra US LNG after Ras Laffan’s shutdown cut about a fifth of global supply; USPS plans a temporary 8% package surcharge from April 26.• Deals/Tech: Bloomberg reported Henkel is in advanced talks to buy Olaplex around $2/share; Meta and Google plan to appeal a $6M addiction-trial verdict.

Oil settles lower while Iran denies US talks

Risk appetite improved, but contradictory Iran diplomacy, unresolved shipping constraints and firmer inflation signals kept the tape fragile.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent settled 2.2% lower at $102.22 and later was down 1.4%; the White House called talks productive, but Iran’s foreign minister said none had occurred.• War/Hormuz: The White House said US forces struck nearly 50 Iranian mine-laying ships and more than 9,000 targets, but gave no timeline for tanker transits to resume.• Diplomacy/Targets: WSJ reported the US and Israel temporarily removed Ghalibaf and Araghchi from a kill list for four to five days while mediators seek talks.• Rates/Fed: A weak $70B five-year auction followed Tuesday’s soft two-year sale; Fed Governor Miran raised his rate projection by 50 bp on inflation data.• Travel/Airlines: Nearly 50 aviation groups urged Congress to end the DHS shutdown as Gulf airspace closures still strand tens of thousands.

Oil firms after Iran broadens shipping threats

Energy risk re-priced higher as the war threatened another maritime chokepoint, while single-name news hit airlines, internet platforms and defense suppliers.• Shipping/Oil: IRGC-linked Tasnim said Iran could control Bab al-Mandeb and open new fronts if the US takes ground action; crude, the dollar and yields got a brief bump after Press TV said Bushehr was struck again.• Energy/Supply: EIA said US crude inventories rose 6.93 million barrels, while Saudi shipments from Yanbu averaged 4.4 million b/d over five days, near its 5 million target.• Airlines/M&A: JetBlue rose after Semafor reported it hired advisers to explore a sale to United, Alaska or Southwest; the report remains unconfirmed.• Internet/Litigation: A Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google liable in a social-media addiction case, raising read-across risk for thousands of similar suits.• Defense: The Pentagon sought to shift about $1.5B toward Patriot, THAAD and SM-3 interceptors from Lockheed and RTX.

Stocks rise while Iran sets conditions for talks

Risk assets held gains as investors looked through Tehran’s tougher public line, while fresh inflation data and single-name tech news added cross-currents.• Iran/Diplomacy: Fars and Press TV said Iran rejects a cease-fire, will end the war on its own timing and will not hold talks until five conditions are met, including reparations and recognition of authority over Hormuz.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 rose about 0.5%-0.6% and the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%; Brent stayed around or below $100, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%.• Macro/Prices: US import prices rose 1.3% in February, the most since 2022; excluding petroleum, they gained 1.2%, and export prices rose 1.5%.• Tech/Defense: Arm jumped 16% after unveiling its first in-house chip. Meta is cutting several hundred jobs, while the Pentagon signed frameworks to quadruple THAAD production capacity.

Stocks rise after Iran receives US cease-fire proposal

Risk appetite improved on cease-fire optionality, but shipping, energy-inflation and travel-fuel stress remain unresolved.• Diplomacy/Markets: AP reported Iran received the US 15-point proposal; FT said the Stoxx 600 rose 1.5%, Brent fell 5.2% to $99 and European gas slid over 6%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran is asking ships seeking protected passage for crew and cargo lists, voyage documents and sometimes fees; Cosco reopened Gulf container bookings, but sources said Strait transits remain very limited.• Rates/Macro: Lagarde said the ECB could change rates at any meeting if energy inflation spreads; German Ifo expectations fell to 86, the lowest in over a year.• Airlines/Fuel: Asia showed jet-fuel hoarding; South Korea cited refueling limits, Vietnam warned of April shortages and United’s CEO said fares may rise.• Pharma: Merck agreed to buy Terns for $6.7B, or $53/share cash, to bolster its pipeline before Keytruda patent expirations.

Philippines declares energy emergency as Iran denies negotiations

The de-escalation trade became less one-way as Asian fuel stress worsened and Tehran publicly rejected the talks narrative, though policy responses aimed to cushion the oil shock.• Energy/Asia: The Philippines declared a one-year national energy emergency, citing only 45 days of oil supplies and warning that jet-fuel shortages could ground planes.• Diplomacy/Oil: Iran’s central military command denied negotiations and said oil prices would not normalize until Washington accepted Iran’s regional role, contradicting US claims of productive contacts.• Markets/War: Brent fell to about $96.50, then moved back above $100; Asian equities rose 1.8%, while Stoxx 50 futures pared gains to 0.9%.• Policy/Supply: Japan asked the IEA to prepare another coordinated reserve release, Thailand ended its diesel cap, and India booked 60 million barrels of Russian oil for April.• China Internet: Alibaba and JD.com rallied after Beijing moved to curb food-delivery price wars.

Oil falls while Iran sets high bar for cease-fire

Cease-fire optimism drove the trade, but reported Iranian demands and fresh Gulf strikes kept the risk premium from fully clearing.• Energy/Markets: Brent was quoted near $98 late Tuesday after topping $110 earlier this week; Japan and South Korea equities rose, and the 10-year yield fell to 4.35%.• Diplomacy/War: WSJ said IRGC-backed demands include closing all US Gulf bases, reparations, full sanctions relief and no missile limits; Gulf states are lobbying Trump not to settle early.• Military/Region: Israel began a new wave of strikes on Tehran government infrastructure. Drones hit a Kuwait airport fuel tank, causing fire but no casualties.• Chemicals/Fertilizer: Dow doubled its April polyethylene increase to 30c/lb, and analysts said LYB and XOM are also raising prices; governments are racing to secure fertilizer before planting.

Oil drops after US sends Iran peace plan

Late-day news cut both ways: crude reversed lower on more concrete diplomatic reporting, but military and regional spillover risks kept the tape fragile.• Oil/Diplomacy: WTI fell below $89 and Brent traded as low as $98.15 after reports that the US sent Iran a 15-point plan covering nuclear, missile and maritime issues; Israel’s Channel 12 said Washington wants a one-month ceasefire.• Military/Region: Mediators seek a US-Iran meeting within 48 hours, but officials said both sides remain far apart. Iraq authorized PMF militias to respond to attacks, Israel set the Litani River as a Lebanon buffer, and Bushehr reported another projectile with no damage.• Fuels/California: California diesel hit a record $7.018/gal. Chevron warned the state risks a fuel crisis and may stop refining there unless taxes and rules ease.• Single Names: Robinhood authorized a $1.5B buyback; Meta lost a New Mexico youth-safety consumer-protection verdict.

US readies 82nd deployment as Treasury yields jump

Risk stayed fragile: military escalation met tentative diplomacy, weak Treasury demand lifted yields, and shutdown frictions spread.• Geopolitics/Energy: WSJ said the Pentagon plans to deploy roughly 3,000 82nd Airborne soldiers, while officials said no decision has been made on boots in Iran. Trump said talks continue and cited an unspecified oil-and-gas “present” tied to Hormuz flows.• Rates/Macro: A $69 billion two-year auction drew weak demand at 3.936%; dealers took 24.1%, and the two-year yield rose as high as 3.96%.• Travel/Shutdown: Democrats rejected the latest DHS offer. TSA absences hit about 11%, Houston waits may top four hours, and Clear traded near a 2021 high.• Tech/Crypto: Arm will sell its own AI CPU to Meta, with TSMC manufacturing it. Circle fell as much as 22% on draft stablecoin-rewards restrictions.

Qatar LNG force majeure hits contracts as US activity cools

Energy supply stress broadened from crude into LNG and refined products, while US data added a stagflationary tone and AI spending stayed active.• LNG/Fuels: QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some long-term LNG contracts for customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China after Ras Laffan damage; Shell warned jet fuel is already tight, with diesel next.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US composite PMI slipped to 51.4, an 11-month low, while input prices reached a 10-month high and selling prices hit the highest level since August 2022; 10-year yields touched 4.4%.• Airlines: United CEO Scott Kirby said fares may need to rise 20% if jet-fuel costs stay elevated and said 5% of uneconomic capacity has already been cut.• Shipping/Geopolitics: Iran’s IRGC said it turned back the container ship Selen in Hormuz for lacking permits; Pakistan offered to host US-Iran talks, but no imminent meeting was confirmed.• AI/Software: Microsoft agreed to lease a 700MW Texas data-center site; software stocks fell after The Information said AWS is building agents to automate specialist work.

Iran charges Hormuz tolls as Ares caps private-credit redemptions

Risk tone stayed hostage to Gulf logistics and private-credit liquidity, with several direct corporate and commodity channels emerging before the US open.• Energy/Shipping: Iran began seeking ad hoc Hormuz transit payments of up to $2 million per voyage from some vessels, people familiar said; war-risk insurance was quoted at 5%-10% of hull value.• Gas/Commodities: Iran halted gas exports to Turkey after the South Pars strike, people familiar said; Turkey sourced about 14% of its gas from Iran last year.• Private Credit: Ares capped withdrawals from its $10.7 billion Strategic Income Fund at 5% after 11.6% redemption requests; ARES and APO fell almost 4% premarket.• Deals/Banks: Bloomberg reported SMFG has no immediate plan or talks to acquire Jefferies, contradicting an FT report; JEF still rose as much as 14% premarket.

Euro PMIs weaken after Iran war lifts energy costs

Energy and war risk stayed elevated, but the clearest market signals were weaker European activity data, confirmed corporate disruption in the Gulf and fresh AI-capex spending.• Macro/Europe: The euro-zone composite PMI fell to 50.5, below the 51.0 forecast, with input costs rising at the fastest pace since February 2023. France dropped to 48.3, Germany to 51.9 and the UK to a six-month-low 51.0.• Cloud/Gulf: AWS said drone activity disrupted its Bahrain services and it was helping customers migrate to alternate regions; WSJ said Amazon shares fell 1.4%.• Diplomacy/Military: The US sent Iran a 15-point peace plan via Pakistan, NYT reported, while the Pentagon ordered about 2,000 82nd Airborne soldiers to the Middle East.• Semis: SK Hynix plans to buy 11.9 trillion won, or $7.9 billion, of ASML EUV tools through 2027 to support advanced memory for Nvidia accelerators.

Oil tops $104 while US stock futures slip

Risk appetite faded in Asia as crude retraced more of Monday’s plunge, Treasury yields rose and US equity futures weakened.• Markets/Energy: Brent rose 4% to $104; S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 futures slipped 0.7%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bp to 4.38%, and the dollar gained 0.5%.• Geopolitics: Israel reported new Iranian missile waves with impacts in southern and central Israel. Kuwait said intercepted debris knocked out seven power lines, and WSJ reported Saudi/UAE steps toward joining the war.• Policy/Energy: Japan sounded out banks on possible crude-futures intervention; China imposed retail fuel controls, allowing petrol to rise Rmb1,160/ton versus Rmb2,205 without controls.• Supply/Transport: Valero’s Port Arthur diesel hydrotreater suffered severe fire damage; Vietnam Airlines will cut 23 weekly flights, and the Philippines said plane groundings are possible.• Tech: SK Hynix is reviewing a possible US ADR listing to raise up to $10bn, Korea Economic Daily reported; Alibaba unveiled a RISC-V inference CPU.