Mar 12, 2026

Trump details Kharg strikes after Brent closes at three-year high

Energy risk intensified into the close, with new Kharg details and Gulf attacks outweighing offset measures and keeping pressure on equities.• Kharg/Oil: Trump said US strikes “obliterated” Kharg Island military targets and warned he could hit oil infrastructure if Hormuz shipping is impeded; a US official said bombers hit missile-storage and mine sites.• Markets/Oil: Brent settled 2.7% higher at $103.14, its highest in more than three years; WTI closed at $98.71, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6% and lost 1.6% for the week.• Gulf/Military: WSJ reported five US refueling planes were damaged in an Iranian strike on Prince Sultan air base; Qatar said it was evacuating several areas.• Fed/Rates: A judge quashed DOJ subpoenas to the Fed, calling them retaliatory; Jeanine Pirro said DOJ will appeal.• Live Nation: More than 30 states plan to resume the breakup trial Monday despite DOJ’s settlement.

Stocks turn lower after Brent reclaims $100

Risk appetite faded as energy risk reasserted itself, while new company and credit items pointed to selective strain beneath still-open funding markets.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 swung from a 0.9% gain to a 0.4% loss, the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, Brent moved back above $100 and the 10-year yield rose to 4.28%.• Military/Hormuz: The Pentagon is sending the Japan-based USS Tripoli and an amphibious Marine unit toward the region; Reuters said Iran allowed two Indian LPG carriers through Hormuz, while Italy denied tanker talks with Tehran.• Credit: US investment-grade issuance hit $115 billion this week, near the 2020 record, led by Amazon’s $37 billion deal, though spreads widened and concessions rose.• Boeing: Boeing is repairing wiring flaws on as many as 25 undelivered 737 Max jets, delaying some March deliveries.

Stocks rise on rate-cut bets as US prepares heavier Iran strikes

Stocks opened higher as softer growth data outweighed sticky inflation, while the Pentagon signaled a heavier Iran campaign and unresolved Hormuz risk kept oil volatile.• Macro/Rates: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%; Brent fell 1.4% to $99.02. Real consumer spending rose 0.1%, core PCE was 3.1% year over year, and fourth-quarter GDP was revised to 0.7%.• Iran/Hormuz: Hegseth said Friday would bring about 20% more strikes than the prior peak and claimed Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded; the US has now cited more than 15,000 targets hit.• Shipping/Security: Hegseth said there was “no clear evidence” Iran laid mines, contradicting other US officials; Bloomberg tracked no confirmed Hormuz transits in 24 hours, though Turkey said one vessel exited.• Single Stocks: Hims is set for a record week after its Novo pact; Schwab guided to about 16% first-quarter revenue growth.

NATO downs Iranian missile over Turkey as India seeks Hormuz tanker passage

Geopolitical risk broadened toward NATO territory, while potential tanker releases and chip demand offered selective offsets before the open.• NATO/Turkey: Turkey said NATO intercepted a third Iranian missile entering its airspace since March 4; residents near Incirlik Air Base reported sirens and a boom, raising alliance-escalation risk.• Hormuz/India: India is in talks with Iran to move at least 23 oil and LNG tankers through Hormuz, with first crossings expected by the weekend, WSJ reported.• US Military: CENTCOM now said four crew members died in the KC-135 crash in western Iraq, not six; it said the loss was not due to hostile or friendly fire.• AI Chips: ByteDance plans to use about 500 Nvidia Blackwell systems in Malaysia, totaling roughly 36,000 B200 chips; NVDA rose 1% early.• Fertilizer: CF gained about 2.5% premarket; Mosaic and Nutrien are up 30% and 36% this year on Hormuz supply disruption.

Oil holds above $100 after Trump threatens Iran

Energy-risk pressure persisted, with fresh regional attacks and stronger dollar moves offsetting reserve-release efforts.• Gulf/Oil: Trump warned Iran to “watch what happens” and said the US has “unlimited ammunition”; NYT reported he said US bombed military forces on Kharg Island while sparing oil infrastructure.• Oman/Shipping: Oman said two drones hit Sohar, killing two expatriate workers; port operations were suspended as a precaution.• Oil/Offsets: Australia released up to 5mn barrels from private fuel reserves, and Japan plans to sell reserve crude at prewar pricing after announcing an 80mn-barrel release.• FX/Rates: The yen weakened to ¥159.46, its lowest since July 2024, the euro hit its weakest since August, and Treasury volatility reached a nine-month high.• China/Trade: Bessent and Greer will meet He Lifeng in Paris Sunday-Monday to prepare deliverables for a planned Trump-Xi summit.

Oil holds near $100 after US eases sanctions on Russian crude at sea

Oil stayed elevated despite Washington’s latest supply release valve, while overnight war headlines added operational and political risk across defense, airlines and commodities.• Oil/Policy: Treasury temporarily allowed purchases of Russian oil already at sea through April 11; Bessent said the waiver could add hundreds of millions of barrels, but Brent still traded around $100.• US Military: CENTCOM said all six crew members died in a KC-135 crash in western Iraq; it said the incident was not hostile or friendly fire.• War Escalation: Tehran, Qom, Isfahan and Ahwaz were hit by fresh airstrikes before Iran’s Quds rally, and the IRGC said it launched new attacks on Israeli and US bases.• Tech/China: Apple cut its China App Store commission to 25% from 30% from March 15 after regulator talks.

Oil settles above $100 after US officials say Iran is laying Hormuz mines

Risk pressure persisted into the close as confirmed oil and rates moves met fresh signs that restoring Gulf shipping may be harder than Washington suggested.• Hormuz/Oil: Brent settled at $100.46, up 9.2%, its first close above $100 since August 2022; WTI settled at $95.73, up 9.7%.• Gulf Security: U.S. officials told NYT Iran began laying mines in Hormuz using small boats, contradicting Bessent’s earlier view that Iran had not mined the strait.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 fell 1.5% and Nasdaq 1.8%; the two-year yield settled at 3.759%, its biggest daily rise since May.• Software/Retail: Adobe said CEO Shantanu Narayen will step down and gave a muted outlook; Ulta fell 9.6% late after cautious 2026 guidance.• Infrastructure: Meta paused part of its 2Africa Gulf cable project after contractors issued force majeure notices.

Oil stays near $100 after Gulf attacks widen beyond Hormuz

Geopolitical risk broadened from the strait into Gulf infrastructure and Lebanon, keeping energy, defense, fertilizer and safe-haven trades in focus while housing and private-credit stress added domestic pressure.• Gulf Security: Kuwait said drones hit vital facilities and caused casualties after five missiles and at least nine drones were tracked; Saudi Arabia intercepted eight drones aimed at Shaybah, and the IRGC claimed an attack on the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain.• Oil/Offsets: Iraq said it expects to resume exports through Turkey soon; Japan ruled out sending forces for Hormuz mine removal.• US Military: CENTCOM said US forces have struck roughly 6,000 Iranian targets and damaged or destroyed more than 90 Iranian vessels, including over 30 minelayers.• Lebanon: Israel struck central Beirut again, said its Hezbollah campaign “will not be short,” and evacuation orders now cover about 15% of Lebanon.• Fertilizer/Cyber: CF hit a record, up as much as 14%, on nitrogen-supply risk; Stryker said ordering and shipping remain offline after a pro-Iran group claimed a cyberattack.

Oil jumps after Khamenei says Hormuz should stay closed

War escalation again drove cross-asset trading, with policy offsets offering only limited relief against energy and rates pressure.• Gulf/Oil: Iran’s new supreme leader said Hormuz should remain closed, bases would keep being targeted and “other fronts” could open; WTI reached $96.13, up 10%.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 fell 1.4%, Nasdaq lost 1.6%, Brent moved back above $100 and traders no longer fully priced one 2026 Fed cut.• Energy/Shipping: Brokers said at least 20 LNG carriers, about half the charter-available fleet, are trapped in the Gulf; daily rates topped $200,000.• Oil/Policy: The Trump administration plans 30-day Jones Act waivers to move US fuel on foreign tankers, likely saving pennies per gallon.• Iraq/Oil: Iraq said output will stay near 1.4mn b/d and is studying 200,000 b/d of truck exports plus 100,000 b/d via Ceyhan.

Oil holds near $100 after Wright says tanker escorts may wait until month-end

Energy and shipping risk stayed the dominant equity overhang, while fresh US data were firm enough to offer little rates relief.• Oil/Shipping: Hapag-Lloyd said the Source Blessing was hit near Jebel Ali, with a small fire and no injuries; WSJ counted it as the seventh regional ship hit in the past day.• Gulf Security: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US Navy is not ready to escort Hormuz tankers now, though escorts are “quite likely” by month-end.• Lebanon: Hezbollah fired about 200 rockets and drones at Israel overnight, and Israel told forces to prepare to expand operations in Lebanon.• Macro/Rates: The 30-year Treasury yield neared 4.90% before a $22bn auction; jobless claims slipped to 213,000 and the January trade gap narrowed to $54.5bn.• Private Credit: Morgan Stanley’s North Haven fund capped redemptions at 5% after requests reached 10.9%; MS fell 4% premarket.

IEA sees record oil disruption after Hormuz flows collapse

Energy shock intensified, though Oman’s quick reopening trimmed one immediate tail risk; inflation, rates and transport disruption remained the main equity overhangs.• Oil/IEA: The IEA called the war the largest oil-market disruption ever, hitting 7.5% of global supply; Hormuz flows are down more than 90%, and March supply is seen falling 8mn b/d.• Gulf Security: Kuwait said drones damaged its airport, Bahrain reported Iranian strikes on fuel tanks, APM suspended Bahrain port operations for Mar. 12-13, and Dubai reported further drone impacts without injuries.• Shipping/Offsets: Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal resumed normal loadings; India is in talks with Iran for safe passage of more than 20 stranded tankers, while Turkey will release 11.6mn barrels.• Rates/FX: Global bonds erased 2026 gains; Goldman pushed its next Fed-cut call to September from June, and dollar option skew turned the most bullish since 2022.• Autos: Honda warned of up to $15.7bn in EV-strategy charges and canceled three North America EVs; Tesla China deliveries rose 91% y/y in February.

Oil tops $100 after Oman closes export terminal

Crude broke back above $100 and risk assets weakened as Gulf shipping disruption broadened beyond Hormuz, with fuel-market knock-ons spreading through Asia.• Oil/Ports: Oman’s Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal closed for security reasons after evacuating vessels; Brent traded around $100-$101, up about 9%-10%.• Shipping/Security: UKMTO said a container ship near Dubai was hit by an unknown projectile, bringing damaged regional vessels since Wednesday to at least six; all crew were safe.• China/Fuels: Chinese refiners were told to cancel agreed gasoline and diesel export cargoes, a tougher step than earlier nonbinding guidance.• Markets/Rates: S&P 500 futures fell about 1%, MSCI Asia-Pacific lost about 1.8%, the dollar rose, and 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.24%.• Airlines: Middle East disruption has caused more than 46,000 flight cancellations since Feb. 28, pressuring carriers and fares.

Oil nears $100 after US details 172mn-barrel SPR draw

Crude spiked in after-hours trading despite the reserve plan, keeping inflation and transport-risk pressure on equities and rates.• Oil/Policy: Energy Department said the US will release 172mn SPR barrels starting next week over 120 days; WTI rose about 7% after hours to above $93, and Brent reached $98.78 in Asia.• Shipping/Gulf: Iraq said two tankers, Safesea Vishnu and Zefyros, were attacked in its waters; one sailor died, 37 were rescued and Iraq suspended oil-terminal operations.• Gulf Security: UAE intercepted 6 ballistic missiles, 7 cruise missiles and 39 drones; Saudi said one drone targeted Shaybah, Bahrain reported fuel tanks hit, and Dubai said a fallen drone caused a minor fire.• Credit/Software: Morgan Stanley returned only 46% of tender requests from an $8bn private-credit fund; Atlassian will cut about 1,600 jobs, citing AI-driven skill shifts.

Oil settles higher after US declines tanker escorts

War risk still overpowered policy offsets: crude finished higher, energy equities finally caught up, and officials gave conflicting signals on whether Hormuz can reopen quickly.• Oil/Hormuz: WTI settled 4.6% higher at $87.25 and Brent 4.8% higher at $91.98 after US defense officials said tanker escorts are not currently feasible while Iran can still attack ships.• Energy Policy: Trump said he would reduce the SPR “a little bit,” while Canada asked producers to release inventories and New Zealand will contribute about six days of fuel supply.• Energy Stocks: The S&P 500 Energy Index rose 2.5%, its best day since the war began; Chevron gained 3% to a record high.• Single Names: Sable jumped 28% after Trump prepared DPA support for California offshore output; SLB warned Q1 EPS will be cut 6-9c by Middle East demobilizations.• Security/Credit: The FBI and Newsom acknowledged West Coast drone-risk alerts; Cliffwater capped Q1 redemptions at 7% after requests reached 14%.

Trump urges Hormuz transits while Iran threatens regional ports

Risk tone stayed hostage to Gulf shipping: Washington signaled confidence that Hormuz can reopen, but military warnings and corporate evacuations kept the risk premium intact.• Hormuz/Ports: Trump urged oil companies to use the Strait, saying the US had taken out nearly all Iranian mine ships and did not think mines were present; Iran warned regional ports would be targets if its ports were hit.• Energy/Data: EIA crude stocks rose 3.82mn barrels versus a 2.5mn survey build, while gasoline fell 3.65mn; WTI traded near $87 and Brent above $91 after the IEA release.• Banks/Cyber: Goldman, Citi and Standard Chartered cleared Dubai offices after Iranian bank threats; Stryker said a pro-Iran group claimed a hack that disrupted global operations.• Shipping/Insurance: DFC picked Chubb to lead a $20bn rolling reinsurance facility for eligible Gulf vessels.• Trade: USTR opened Section 301 probes targeting 16 trading partners and signaled another case covering 60 countries.

Oil holds gains after IEA approves record reserve release

Crude stayed firm despite confirmed emergency barrels, while the war widened across Gulf infrastructure and Lebanon. AI infrastructure news remained supportive for selected tech names.• Oil/Policy: IEA members unanimously approved a 400mn-barrel emergency release, the largest ever; timing and daily pace were not specified. WTI briefly dipped then traded near $86, and Brent was around $91.• Gulf Security: Iran said no oil benefiting the US or its allies would pass Hormuz and claimed a shift to continuous strikes; Oman said drones hit fuel tanks at Salalah port without casualties.• War/Military: Centcom said the US has hit more than 5,500 Iranian targets, including 60-plus ships, and Israel reported targeted raids against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.• Macro/Rates: CPI reaction was muted, but forecasters estimated core PCE was tracking around 0.45% for February; Treasury yields rose about 3 bp near session highs.• Tech/AI: Nvidia agreed to invest $2bn in Nebius for more than 5GW of AI data centers by 2030.

Oil rises despite IEA proposing record reserve release

Crude held a war premium despite a larger reserve response taking shape, while Gulf security risks spread across shipping, airports, banks and LNG contracts.• Oil/Policy: IEA proposed releasing 300mn-400mn barrels; Japan may start a unilateral draw March 16, Germany said it would contribute, and Brent/WTI still rose more than 4%.• Gulf Security: UAE defenses intercepted new Iranian missile and drone threats, Qatar reported a missile attack, Oman shot down one drone, and Iran warned US- and Israeli-linked banks.• Shipping/Airlines: Maersk said 10 ships are trapped in the Gulf and Asia fuel shortages may lift freight rates; KLM canceled Dubai flights through March 28.• Macro/Rates: February CPI matched forecasts at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core; 30-year mortgage rates rose 10 bp to 6.19%.• LNG: Shell declared force majeure on some Asia LNG contracts tied to Qatar’s Ras Laffan shutdown.

Brent rebounds after three ships are struck near Hormuz

Crude regained risk premium as ship strikes outweighed reserve-release signals; energy inflation and credit concerns also broadened the market pressure.• Oil/Hormuz: UKMTO said three vessels were hit near Hormuz and the Gulf. Iran said it fired on the Thai-owned Mayuree Naree after warnings; 20 crew were evacuated and three sailors were missing.• Energy Policy: G-7 ministers backed using strategic reserves in principle, but France said no decision had been made; Brent rose more than 2% toward $90.• LNG/Fertilizer: Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG plant has gone five days without an export, the longest halt in data since 2008, tightening nitrogen fertilizer inputs.• Rates/Credit: ECB’s Kazimir said an Iran-driven rate hike may be closer than expected; JPMorgan reportedly marked down some software-linked private-credit loans.• Amazon: Amazon launched a record eight-part euro bond sale of about €10bn after Tuesday’s $37bn dollar deal to fund AI spending.