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Stocks surge after Iran signals readiness to end war
US equities staged a powerful relief rally as investors looked past the morning oil spike and treated Iran’s conditional peace comments as the day’s dominant signal. The move faded the energy winners and revived growth exposure, but after-hours headlines showed the war risk had not disappeared and company news still cut both ways.• Markets/War: The S&P 500 closed up 2.9%, the Nasdaq gained 3.8% and the Dow added 1,125 points after IRNA said Iran was ready to end the war if it received guarantees; Brent later reopened near $104-$105 after losing 3.2%.• Energy/Inflation: US gasoline topped $4 for the first time since 2022, euro-zone inflation moved back above the ECB target and Fed’s Schmid warned officials should not look through the oil shock.• Tech/AI: OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation, with Amazon, Nvidia and SoftBank as major backers; Nvidia also invested $2 billion in Marvell.• After-Hours/Retail: Nike fell nearly 9% after hours after guiding current-quarter revenue down 2%-4%, including a projected 20% drop in China sales.
Trump sets Iran address after saying US can leave without deal
War headlines stayed market-positive but unresolved: Trump put a primetime Iran address on the calendar while Tehran denied talks and Hormuz access remained leverage.• Iran/Markets: The White House said Trump will address the nation Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET on Iran, his first primetime war address; he said the US could leave in two to three weeks whether or not there is a deal.• Hormuz/Oil: Brent reopened near $104-$105 after losing 3.2%; Abbas Araghchi said Iran may block ships from countries at war with it and that Iran and Oman would manage security after the conflict.• Asia/Risk: The Kospi jumped 5.5%, Nikkei 2.8%, MSCI Asia Pacific 2.4% and Asian tech 2.9%; South Korea’s unadjusted exports rose 48.3%.• Retail: Nike fell nearly 9% after hours after guiding current-quarter revenue down 2%-4%, with China sales expected to drop 20%.• Power/AI: Microsoft is in exclusive talks with Chevron and Engine No. 1 for a proposed $7 billion Texas gas plant to supply a data-center campus.
Stocks post best day in 10 months as OpenAI raises $122 billion
US risk appetite closed sharply stronger, but Iran diplomacy remained unsettled; AI funding and earnings added single-name support.• Markets/War: The S&P 500 closed up 2.9%, Nasdaq 3.8% and Dow 2.5%/1,125 points, their best day since May 2025; energy lagged.• Iran Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said US-Iran messages were not negotiations, Tehran had not answered a 15-point US plan and wanted an end to hostilities, not a cease-fire.• War/Defense: US officials said a third carrier group, led by the USS George H.W. Bush, is deploying to the Middle East; arrival may take weeks.• AI/Tech: OpenAI completed a $122 billion round at an $852 billion valuation, with Amazon investing $50 billion and Nvidia and SoftBank $30 billion each.• Retail/Software: Nike beat sales and EPS estimates; Oracle rose 6% as layoffs began, with employees saying cuts number in the thousands.
Stocks jump after Iran says it is ready to end war with guarantees
De-escalation headlines finally produced a confirmed cross-asset reversal, though policy and regional risks widened around inflation, US corporates and Lebanon.• Markets/Oil: IRNA reported President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was ready to end the war if it receives guarantees. WTI flipped from a 3% gain to down 2.4% at $100.46, while the S&P 500 rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq gained 3.4%.• Tech/Geopolitics: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened 18 companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Tesla and Boeing, calling regional offices “legitimate targets” from Wednesday evening.• Rates/Macro: Fed’s Schmid warned officials should not look through the oil shock and said inflation could get stuck near 3%.• Europe/Energy: The EU said the war added €14 billion to fossil-fuel import costs and warned jet fuel and diesel markets are tightening.• Social Media: Snap jumped 13% after Irenic built a 2.5% stake and pushed for cuts and a Specs exit.
Brent nears $120 after Hegseth says Iran strikes may intensify
Risk appetite improved despite a fresh oil spike, with investors leaning into de-escalation hopes while military and supply-chain risks broadened.• War/Oil: Brent rose about 5% to $118, near war highs, as traders sought cargoes before the May contract expiry; June Brent was around $108.• War/Defense: Hegseth said US strikes would intensify without a deal, B-52s have begun overland Iran missions, and ground options were not ruled out.• Markets/Macro: The S&P 500 rose 1.3% and Nasdaq 1.6%; consumer confidence unexpectedly rose to 91.8, while job openings fell to 6.88 million.• Chips/AI: Nvidia invested $2 billion in Marvell and announced a silicon-photonics partnership; Marvell rose 9.3% premarket.• Health/Payments: The FDA tied Amgen’s Tavneos to 76 liver-injury cases, including eight deaths; Amazon replaced AmEx with U.S. Bancorp for small-business cards.
Trump tells allies to secure Hormuz oil as euro-zone inflation jumps
Risk assets tried to rally on de-escalation hopes, but new war, inflation and supply-route developments kept the energy shock central to positioning.• Energy/Geopolitics: Trump told the UK and other countries short of jet fuel to buy from the US or “take” oil from Hormuz themselves, while saying Iran was “essentially decimated” and the “hard part is done.”• Macro/Rates: Euro-zone inflation rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, below some forecasts but back above the ECB target; traders are pricing two or three ECB hikes by end-2026.• Markets/Energy: US energy stocks are set for record relative outperformance, with the S&P 500 Energy Index up 39% this quarter versus a 7% S&P 500 drop.• Biopharma/M&A: Biogen agreed to buy Apellis for $5.6 billion; Eli Lilly agreed to buy Centessa for up to $7.8 billion.
UAE attacks intensify as US gasoline tops $4
War-driven inflation and supply-chain stress broadened, with Gulf security worsening even as some risk assets held onto hopes for a shorter conflict.• Energy/Consumers: AAA said US regular gasoline rose to $4.018 a gallon, the first move above $4 since August 2022 and up about 35% since the war began.• Gulf Security: The UAE said air defenses were engaging several waves of Iranian missiles and drones across the country; debris hit Dubai homes and left four people with minor injuries.• Industrials/Chemicals: Sadara, the Saudi Aramco-Dow joint venture, temporarily halted production, citing disrupted supply chains and no restart timetable.• Staples/M&A: Unilever said talks to sell most of its food business to McCormick are advanced, with $15.7 billion cash upfront plus McCormick equity; it also froze hiring globally for three months.• Rates/Europe: ECB hawk Madis Muller said rate increases are probable if energy costs stay high.
Oil whipsaws after Trump weighs ending Iran war without reopening Hormuz
Energy risk dominated the day, but the tape refused a simple stagflation script. Crude held a large war premium as Hormuz traffic stayed impaired, Treasuries rallied on growth fears, and equities faded from a morning bounce before futures recovered after-hours on a softer reported US objective.• Energy/Shipping: WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022 and Brent touched almost $117 after tanker attacks near Dubai, conflicting reports on Iranian Hormuz tolls and bans, and Clarksons data showing traffic down 95%.• War/Diplomacy: Trump touted progress with Iran and later reportedly told aides he could end the war without reopening Hormuz, but NATO intercepted another Iranian missile over Turkey and Gulf states reported fresh Iranian missile and drone activity.• Rates/Macro: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.33% as Powell said policy could wait out the energy shock, even with officials warning that oil deficits and inflation risk complicate the Fed’s path.• Equities/Single Names: The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% and Nasdaq lost 0.7% after early gains faded; Micron slid after earnings, while Biogen, Merck and the GSEs rallied on company-specific catalysts.
Oil reverses after Trump weighs ending Iran war without reopening Hormuz
Risk tone improved on a reported softer US war objective, though Gulf security headlines stayed volatile and diplomacy remained disputed.• Energy/Markets: WSJ reported Trump told aides he could end the Iran war without reopening Hormuz; WTI fell below $102 after earlier jumping nearly 4%, and S&P 500 futures rose almost 1% in Asian trading.• Energy/Shipping: Kuwait said the fully laden Al-Salmi was hit near Dubai by Iranian forces; TankerTrackers estimated 2 million barrels aboard, while UAE authorities said the fire was extinguished with no leak or injuries.• War/Gulf: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted eight missiles, most aimed at Riyadh; the UAE cited Iranian drones and missiles, and Sharjah reported a drone targeted a Thuraya telecom building.• Macro/Asia: China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, beating estimates; South Korea proposed a $17.3 billion supplementary budget for the Iran shock.• Stocks: Allbirds jumped after-hours on a $39 million asset sale to American Exchange.
WTI tops $100 while Hormuz toll reports conflict
Oil again set the tone: WTI broke a key level, equities gave back early gains, and Hormuz access looked no closer to normal.• Energy/Commodities: WTI settled up 3.3% at $102.88, its first close above $100 since 2022; Brent settled at $112.78 after touching $116.89.• Energy/Shipping: Iranian state media said parliament approved Hormuz tolls and bans on US, Israeli and sanctioning-country vessels, though FT/NYT accounts framed approval as still committee-level.• Energy/Shipping: Two Cosco ships exited Hormuz after being turned back Friday; Clarksons said traffic was still down 95%, with six daily transits versus 125 prewar.• Energy/Security: UKMTO said another tanker off Dubai reported an unknown-projectile strike and fire; crew were safe and authorities were investigating.• Markets/Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% and Nasdaq lost 0.7%; Micron fell 9.9% as its post-earnings slide deepened.
Treasuries rally as NATO intercepts Iranian missile over Turkey
Rates led the tape as oil cooled from its highs, while war escalation and diplomacy signals remained contradictory.• Rates/Macro: Powell said policy is well placed to wait out the energy shock and private credit does not look systemic; the 10-year yield fell about 11 bp to 4.33%, near its biggest one-day drop since August.• Iran/Diplomacy: The White House said remaining Iranian regime elements are increasingly eager to negotiate, but Trump declined to rule out ground operations; Rubio said Hormuz will reopen “one way or another.”• NATO/War: NATO intercepted a fourth Iranian missile over Turkey, and a Turkish adviser called the strikes a pattern; Israel said it hit 170 Iranian targets in 24 hours.• Energy/Markets: Brent fell back to flat near $112.60 after topping $116, while the Stoxx 600 closed up 0.9%.• Single Names: Merck’s enlicitide cut LDL cholesterol by 64%; Reuters said E*Trade is in talks to lead SpaceX’s retail IPO allocation.
Stocks and bonds rise after Trump touts Iran talks
Markets stabilized despite heavier policy and military headlines: investors bought stocks and Treasuries while officials framed Hormuz, energy supply and Fed tradeoffs as the key risks.• Iran/Markets: S&P futures rose about 0.9%, Stoxx 600 gained 0.7% and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.4% after Trump claimed “great progress” with a “new” Iranian regime, even as he threatened Kharg Island, oil wells and power plants if Hormuz stays shut.• Hormuz/Energy: Bessent said the US would “retake” Hormuz control over time via US or multinational escorts; he cited a 10 million-12 million b/d oil deficit and WSJ reported 30 ships passed in two days.• Policy/Rates: The G7 pledged “all necessary measures” to protect energy markets; Powell said the Fed faces labor downside versus inflation upside, while Miran still backed gradual quarter-point cuts.• Single Names: BIIB won FDA approval for high-dose Spinraza; UBER agreed to buy Blacklane; FNMA and FMCC jumped more than 30% after Ackman called them “stupidly cheap.”
Cosco ships cross Hormuz as Iran prepares toll law
War news kept energy risk high, though confirmed vessel transits and easing signal jamming gave shippers limited operational relief; macro spillovers broadened into rates, Gulf liquidity and M&A.• Hormuz/Shipping: Two Cosco-linked container ships crossed Hormuz Monday, the first confirmed major container-line transit of the war, after broadcasting “CHINESE OWNER&CREW”; Iran is drafting a toll law for ships.• Oil/Infrastructure: Brent briefly approached $117 and WTI topped $100; Israel said Haifa’s Bazan refinery area was hit but production and fuel supply were unaffected.• Diplomacy/War: Iran called US demands “excessive and illogical” and said it had not joined Pakistan-hosted talks; Polymarket put US ground-entry odds at 72%.• Policy/Credit: Qatar allowed three-month loan deferrals, cut reserve requirements to 3.5% from 4.5% and offered unlimited riyal repo liquidity.• Deals/SYY: Bloomberg cited WSJ saying Sysco is near a roughly $29 billion Restaurant Depot acquisition.
Oil rises after Kuwaiti tanker is attacked off Dubai
Energy and growth stress intensified after a new tanker attack near Dubai, while policy responses broadened across fuel-importing economies and rates markets split between haven buying and inflation risk.• Oil/Shipping: Kuwait said the fully loaded Al-Salmi tanker, carrying about 2 million barrels, was attacked in Emirati waters; the fire was extinguished, no injuries were reported, and a spill was possible.• Hormuz/Trade: Two Cosco-linked container ships again tried to exit Hormuz after Friday’s U-turn, signaling Chinese ownership and crew to seek safe passage.• Crude/Pricing: Traders said Saudi Aramco may lift Arab Light’s May premium to about $40 a barrel from $2.50, which would likely curb Asian purchases.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries and European front-end bonds rallied on growth fears, though Schroders expects the US 10-year yield to reach 4.5% on energy-driven stagflation.• Metals/Autos: Toyota warned Japanese automakers rely on the Middle East for roughly 70% of aluminum supply.
Stocks slide after Hormuz shutdown sends oil soaring
Risk appetite deteriorated over the week as an early diplomatic relief rally gave way to a larger Gulf supply shock. Equities finished under pressure, oil became the dominant inflation impulse, and Treasury yields shifted higher as markets faded Fed-cut hopes. The rotation favored energy and some metals exposure while punishing growth, travel, banks and fuel-sensitive consumers; private-credit redemption headlines added a secondary liquidity concern.• Oil/War: Trump’s initial delay of strikes briefly pushed Brent below $100, but the Strait of Hormuz effectively froze, Iranian attacks spread across Gulf infrastructure and Brent ended the week near $116, with weekend talk of seizing Kharg Island keeping risk premium elevated.• Rates/Macro: Soft PMIs and early haven demand were overwhelmed by firmer inflation signals, weak Treasury auctions and Fed officials’ inflation-first messaging; the 10-year yield touched 4.48% and futures shifted toward no 2026 cuts, with hike odds appearing.• Equities/Rotation: The S&P 500’s Monday rebound reversed into a six-month low by Friday, while the Nasdaq entered correction territory. Energy outperformed; airlines, cruises, discretionary, banks and high-duration tech lagged as fuel and financing risks rose.• Credit/Liquidity: High-grade issuance reopened, but Apollo, Ares and other private-credit platforms capped or faced unusual withdrawals, and Oracle CDS widened on AI-debt concerns.• Single Names: Carnival cut guidance on fuel costs, Meta fell on youth-safety verdicts, Arm rallied on its chip push, Alcoa benefited from aluminum-supply risk, and Brown-Forman rose on Pernod Ricard talks.
Futures slide after Trump weighs seizing Iran’s oil hub
War risk, not relief diplomacy, set the tone into the close. Limited Hormuz transits and Trump’s claim that Iran accepted most cease-fire terms gave brief offsets, but threats against Kharg Island, new regional strikes and damaged infrastructure pushed crude, aluminum and defense risk higher while equity futures weakened in Asian trading.• Oil/Hormuz: Vessel traffic through Hormuz remained a fraction of normal, with UKMTO citing 11 crossings versus about 138 a day before the war; Brent traded near $116 after Trump said he could seize Kharg Island and “take the oil.”• Markets/Commodities: S&P 500 futures fell as much as 0.8%, the Nikkei and Kospi dropped more than 5%, LME aluminum rose as much as 6%, and Alcoa’s Australia-listed shares jumped after attacks hit Gulf and metals infrastructure.• War/Region: Israel expanded operations in southern Lebanon and said more than 150 jets hit Tehran-area weapons sites, while Iran reported power outages and Kuwait said an Iranian strike hit a power and desalination plant.• Defense/Industrials: Reports of a destroyed US E-3 Sentry pressured Boeing replacement scrutiny and supported defense demand, while Chevron said cyclone damage would delay Wheatstone’s full restart for weeks.
Asian stocks slide after Trump weighs seizing Iran’s oil hub
Risk assets weakened in Asia while crude and aluminum extended war-driven gains; Trump’s upbeat deal rhetoric was offset by threats to seize oil assets and fresh strikes on Gulf infrastructure.• Oil/War: Trump said Iran accepted most US cease-fire demands but declined details; Iran publicly rejected the 15-point plan. He told FT he wanted to “take the oil” and could seize Kharg Island, while WSJ said he is weighing extracting about 1,000 pounds of uranium.• Markets/Commodities: Brent traded around $116, S&P 500 futures fell as much as 0.8%, Nikkei slid up to 5.3% and Kospi 5.3%; LME aluminum rose as much as 6% to $3,492, and Alcoa’s Australia-listed shares surged 11%.• Gulf/Policy: Kuwait said an Iranian strike hit a power and desalination plant, killing one worker. Australia halved fuel excise for three months, and South Korea may curb public driving if oil exceeds $120.
Hormuz traffic stays minimal as Israel widens Lebanon operation
War escalation dominated Sunday, with limited Hormuz traffic and wider regional strikes outweighing tentative mediation signals.• Oil/Hormuz: UKMTO said 11 vessels crossed Hormuz in the past day versus about 138 a day before the war, and kept the maritime risk level at critical.• Israel/Lebanon: Netanyahu ordered the military to further expand its security zone in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah has fired more than 1,000 rockets and drones since joining the war.• Iran/Strikes: Iran reported power outages in Tehran and Alborz after attacks on electricity infrastructure; Israel said more than 150 jets hit weapons sites across Tehran in 24 hours.• Nuclear/IAEA: The IAEA confirmed Iran’s Khondab heavy water plant is severely damaged and no longer operational, with no radiation risk.• Industrials/Defense: ADAMA said its Neot Hovav chemicals plant was hit, and FT said the damaged US E-3 appeared struck by a drone or cruise missile.
Iran expands war footing while Hormuz tracker shows rare Saudi crude transit
War risk stayed elevated, but the first tracker evidence of limited Hormuz traffic gave energy desks a measurable offset; single-name news was mixed.• Gulf/Hormuz: Bloomberg tracked seven vessels leaving the Gulf Saturday, including the P. Aliki with about 650,000 barrels of Saudi crude for Pakistan; flows remain far below prewar levels.• War/US: Iran’s military said it was “counting the moments” to destroy US forces if they invade; state media also reported volunteer recruitment and new checkpoints in Isfahan.• Defense/BA: Bloomberg reported an Iranian strike destroyed a roughly $300 million E-3 Sentry, the first known combat loss of the type; WSJ said the Air Force has 16 left.• Energy/CVX: Chevron said cyclone damage at Wheatstone will delay a full restart for “a number of weeks.”• Pharma/LLY: Lilly signed an AI drug-development deal with Insilico worth up to $2.75 billion, including $115 million upfront.
Oil relief emerges after Trump says Iran allowed 20 more Hormuz ships
Energy risk showed a modest easing signal, though fresh attacks on logistics, metals and regional targets kept escalation risk high.• Oil/Hormuz: Trump said Iran agreed to let 20 more oil cargo ships pass through Hormuz starting Monday, though destinations and ownership were unclear; NYT said oil is up 56% since the war began.• Russia/Oil: Ukraine hit Russia’s Ust-Luga port again; officials said 31 drones were downed, a fire was being fought and loadings have been halted since Wednesday.• Metals/War: Aluminium Bahrain confirmed its facilities were targeted, with two minor injuries, and gave no timeline for restoring the 19% of capacity already suspended.• War/Region: Houthis claimed a second Israel attack within 24 hours; an Israeli official said a missile was intercepted, with no reported damage.• Defense/BA: WSJ highlighted E-3 fleet stress, with Boeing’s delayed E-7 replacement costing more than $700 million each.