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Oil risk persists after cease-fire leaves Hormuz restricted
Risk appetite improved from Tuesday’s cease-fire relief and a powerful short-covering rally, but the week never escaped the energy shock. Oil finished with a renewed geopolitical premium as Hormuz restrictions, failed diplomacy and blockade threats kept inflation risk alive; equities still held gains, with leadership split between AI infrastructure and defensive or regulated beneficiaries.• Oil/Hormuz: WTI spiked near $115, plunged below $100 on the two-week US-Iran pause, then recovered as Hormuz traffic stayed thin, Iran sought tolls, Saudi capacity was hit, talks failed and Trump threatened a broader naval blockade.• Macro/Rates: Energy drove the inflation debate. ISM prices paid hit the highest since 2022, headline CPI rose 0.9% on a 10.9% energy jump, core CPI cooled, and yields whipsawed as growth worries competed with oil-led inflation expectations.• Equities/Sectors: The S&P 500 absorbed early war stress and extended gains through Thursday on cease-fire relief, short covering and lower early oil prices, before Friday and weekend futures softened as Michigan inflation expectations and Hormuz risk reasserted pressure.• AI/Semis: AI infrastructure demand stayed a major positive as Broadcom confirmed a Google TPU deal, TSMC posted 35% quarterly revenue growth, and CoreWeave-Nvidia capacity news supported the semiconductor complex.• Stock Dispersion: Managed-care shares rallied after the CMS Medicare Advantage rate increase, airlines lagged on fuel-cost warnings, and software sold off after Anthropic and Meta agent launches intensified SaaS-disruption concerns.
Oil tops $100 after Trump threatens wider Hormuz blockade
Energy shock risk dominated the day, with equities treated mainly as the funding source and rates pricing a fresh inflation impulse. The arc was whippy: early relief from a narrower U.S. blockade and restored Saudi capacity gave way to Trump’s broader Hormuz threat, then Centcom’s formal order narrowed the action again even as crude extended higher after hours.• Oil/Blockade: Brent rose as much as 8.6% to above $103 and WTI traded near $104 after Trump said the Navy would block ships entering or leaving Hormuz and interdict vessels that paid Iranian tolls; Centcom later said the Monday order applied only to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.• Rates/Macro: Treasury cash trading opened weaker as the oil move raised inflation concerns, with 2-year yields up 5 bps to 3.85% and 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.36%; Japan’s 10-year yield reached the highest level since 1997.• Shipping/Flows: Hormuz traffic stayed thin, with UKMTO counting only four crossings in 24 hours and Kpler roughly 40 since the cease-fire, though an Iranian supertanker reached India under a temporary U.S. waiver.• Equities/Deals: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell on the energy shock, while GFL gained attention after reports it was near a C$6 billion Secure Waste deal.
Brent tops $103 after Trump dismisses need for Iran talks
Energy and rates markets extended the inflation-risk repricing, while equities showed a relatively contained risk-off reaction in Asia.• Oil/Gas: Brent gained as much as 8.6% to above $103, WTI traded near $104, and European gas futures jumped almost 18%; Asian LNG prices were flagged higher.• Trump/Iran: Trump said the cease-fire was “holding well” and the blockade would be “very effective,” but added, “I don’t care if they come back or not” on Iran talks.• Rates/Macro: Treasury cash trading opened weaker, with 2-year yields up 5 bps to 3.85% and 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.36%; Japan’s 10-year yield hit 2.49%, the highest since 1997.• Shipping/Oil: Tanker Trackers said an Iranian supertanker reached India with 2 million barrels, the first such delivery in seven years under a temporary U.S. waiver.
Oil tops $100 after Centcom limits blockade to Iranian ports
Energy risk stayed high, though Centcom’s formal order narrowed the blockade from Trump’s broader threat; separate election and deal news added idiosyncratic moves.• Hormuz/Blockade: Centcom said the Monday 10 a.m. ET blockade covers vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and will not impede non-Iranian Hormuz transits.• Oil/Markets: FT said oil surged above $100 at the Sunday reopen, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell; UKMTO counted only four Strait crossings in 24 hours.• Iran/Diplomacy: Regional officials told WSJ a second round of talks could occur within days; sticking points include Hormuz fees, enriched uranium and Iran’s $27 billion frozen-revenue demand.• Europe/FX: Orban conceded Hungary’s election; the forint rose 1.7% to a three-year high.• Deals/Stocks: Bloomberg said GFL is near a C$6 billion Secure Waste deal, about 20% cash and 80% stock.
Oil risk rises after Trump orders full Hormuz blockade
Energy and geopolitical risk rose after Washington shifted from a targeted Iran-port blockade to a full Hormuz blockade, while allied participation and shipping rules remained disputed.• Hormuz/Blockade: Trump said the Navy would block any ship entering or leaving Hormuz and interdict vessels that paid Iranian tolls; he said it would be effective “pretty soon.”• Allies/Contradictions: The UK ruled out joining the blockade, contradicting Trump’s claim that Britain and others were sending minesweepers.• Iran/Military: The IRGC said civilian ships could pass under “special regulations,” but any military vessel approaching Hormuz would violate the cease-fire and face a forceful response.• Shipping/Flows: Kpler counted 12 Hormuz crossings Saturday and about 40 since the cease-fire, still far below normal.• Gulf/Lebanon: Saudi Arabia summoned Iraq’s ambassador over drone attacks; Lebanon reported 35 killed in 24 hours, and Netanyahu visited Israeli forces inside Lebanon.
US narrows Iran blockade as Saudi restores key oil pipeline
Energy risk stayed elevated but less one-way after the U.S. clarified the blockade scope and Saudi Arabia restored a major export route.• Hormuz/Blockade: Centcom said the blockade starting Monday at 10 a.m. ET applies to ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, while vessels transiting Hormuz to non-Iranian ports will not be impeded.• Oil/Saudi: Saudi Arabia restored the East-West pipeline to full 7 million b/d capacity and recovered 300,000 b/d at Manifa; Khurais repairs continue after a 300,000 b/d hit.• Shipping/Oil: Two empty VLCCs, Agios Fanourios I and Shalamar, turned back near Hormuz; a third, Mombasa B, continued on an Iran-approved route.• Lebanon/Israel: Israeli strikes killed 11 in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah reported drone and rocket attacks on Israeli forces.
Oil risk rises after US-Iran talks fail
Geopolitical risk, not domestic macro, drove the day: early signs of shipping normalization through Hormuz faded as US military activity escalated, physical crude tightened, and diplomacy broke down after the close. The read-through was supportive for energy and LNG-linked risk, but negative for broad risk appetite.• Oil/Hormuz: Early vessel sightings suggested the busiest crude exits through Hormuz since March, but Centcom later said US destroyers transited the strait and began setting conditions for mine clearing, keeping supply-risk premia elevated.• Iran Diplomacy: US-Iran-Pakistan talks moved from uncertainty to confirmed face-to-face negotiations, then failed after a 21-hour session when Tehran rejected US terms on long-term nuclear constraints. Iran said no new round was planned.• Physical Crude: Bloomberg reported a spot-crude squeeze, with prompt Brent trading above $140 and Dated Brent reaching a record $144 before easing to $126.• Military Escalation: NYT reported US destroyers destroyed an Iranian surveillance drone during the Hormuz operation, while Centcom said underwater drones would join mine-clearance work.• LNG/Qatar: Qatar said daytime maritime navigation would resume Sunday, offering limited logistics relief, though its LNG tankers still had not crossed Hormuz since the route shut.
US-Iran talks fail after 21-hour session
Oil and gas risk skewed higher after diplomacy broke down, while limited Gulf logistics relief came from Qatar’s planned reopening of its waters.• Iran Talks: Vance said the US and Iran failed to reach a deal after 21 hours because Tehran would not accept US terms on long-term nuclear constraints; he left a “final and best offer.”• Talks/Contradictions: Iranian state media blamed US “unreasonable demands” on Hormuz and uranium enrichment; Fars said no new round is planned, reversing earlier Iranian reports that talks would resume Sunday.• Hormuz/Military: NYT reported US destroyers destroyed an Iranian surveillance drone during the Hormuz operation; Centcom said underwater drones will join mine clearance and a safe passage will be shared with shippers.• LNG/Qatar: Qatar said full maritime navigation in its waters resumes Sunday from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m.; its LNG tankers have not crossed Hormuz since the war shut the route.
US begins Hormuz mine-clearing operation while Iran talks hit strait stalemate
Geopolitical risk hardened as the US moved militarily in Hormuz and direct talks remained active but unresolved, keeping oil-supply stress elevated.• Hormuz/Military: Centcom said the USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited Hormuz and began setting conditions for mine clearing; Iran denied the transit, after earlier conflicting reports.• Talks/Iran: US-Iran-Pakistan talks were confirmed face to face; two rounds were held and a third was planned, but Hormuz remained a serious disagreement and the US denied agreeing to release Iranian assets.• Oil/Physical: Bloomberg reported a spot-crude squeeze, with prompt Brent trades above $140 and Dated Brent hitting a record $144 before easing to $126.• China/War: NYT reported US intelligence that China may have sent MANPADS to Iran; officials said the evidence was not definitive and none had been used.• Lebanon/Israel: Israel said it struck more than 200 Hezbollah targets; Lebanon reported 2,020 killed since early March.
Oil shipping improves while US-Iran talks await direct start
Geopolitical risk was mixed: visible Hormuz transits improved the oil-flow picture, but direct US-Iran talks were still unconfirmed and Lebanon fighting worsened.• Hormuz/Oil: Two Chinese crude supertankers and a Greek vessel appeared to be crossing Hormuz; if completed, three oil exits would be the busiest day since traffic froze in March.• Diplomacy/Iran: Vance reached Islamabad and met Pakistan’s Sharif; Iran’s team also met Sharif, but Tehran state media said direct talks could be withheld unless Lebanon cease-fire and asset-unfreeze demands are addressed. One NYT item said talks had failed, contradicting later reports that timing remained unclear.• Lebanon/Israel: Israel launched new waves of strikes in southern Lebanon; FT cited at least 10 killed, while Hezbollah kept firing rockets and projectiles into northern Israel.• Microsoft/Carbon: MSFT staff told carbon-removal developers purchases are paused; BNEF says its 2025 buying represented 96% of that market.
Stocks wobble with Hormuz risks elevated
Stocks lost early CPI relief as Hormuz and Iran-talk risk reasserted themselves into the close, leaving Friday mixed but the week still strong. Softer core inflation and AI demand supported duration-sensitive growth, while headline energy inflation, shipping disruption and fuel-supply fears kept the commodity tail risk alive.• Macro/Rates: March CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, driven by a 10.9% energy jump, but core CPI rose only 0.2% and supercore services slowed; futures initially firmed before weak Michigan sentiment and higher inflation expectations hurt risk appetite.• Hormuz/Oil: Shipping through Hormuz remained near frozen, with only two crossings reported Friday and hundreds of vessels stranded. Crude rallied intraday after Trump said US warships were reloading if talks fail, while officials later warned Iran may not be able to clear mines quickly.• Semis/AI: TSMC’s 35% quarterly revenue growth, record Taiwan exports and Anthropic’s CoreWeave-Nvidia capacity deal reinforced AI infrastructure demand.• Transport/Energy: TotalEnergies’ Satorp outage and warnings of European jet-fuel shortages pressured airline risk.• Financials/Credit: The Fed asked large banks for details on private-credit exposures after redemption and loan problems.
Hormuz risk rises after US officials say Iran cannot clear mines
Geopolitical risk stayed elevated into the Pakistan talks, while regulators added pressure on financials and AI-linked power demand drew a concrete grid response.• Hormuz/Oil: U.S. officials told NYT Iran cannot locate or remove all mines it laid in the strait, complicating reopening; Trump said the U.S. will not allow Iranian tolls and called nuclear limits “99%” of the talks.• Lebanon/Iran: Hezbollah said it launched a drone strike on Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon; no casualties were immediately reported.• Financials/Credit: The Fed is asking major banks for details on private-credit exposures after redemptions and troubled loans, Bloomberg reported.• Power/AI: PJM proposed matching data centers with 15 GW of new supply and warned its shortfall could reach 60 GW over a decade.• Single Names: Dutch regulators approved Tesla FSD for immediate use in the Netherlands; Meta is hiring three former OpenAI Stargate leaders.
Stocks post best week since November after Iran delegation reaches Islamabad
Risk assets finished the week firmer despite Friday’s mixed close, with diplomacy advancing but Hormuz logistics still deteriorating.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% Friday, the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, and the Dow fell 0.6%; for the week, the S&P gained 3.6% and Nasdaq 4.7%. Brent settled at $95.20, down 12.7% for the week.• Iran Talks: Iran’s delegation landed in Islamabad, led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and including the foreign minister, defense council secretary and central bank governor; state media said talks start only if Iran’s preconditions are accepted.• Hormuz/Shipping: Only two ships crossed Hormuz Friday, down from four on each of Wednesday and Thursday, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.• Lebanon/Israel: Lebanon and Israel agreed to Tuesday State Department talks, though Israel said it would not discuss a Hezbollah cease-fire.• Alternatives/AI: Blackstone filed for a roughly $2 billion data-center REIT IPO under BXDC.
Stocks turn lower after Trump says warships are reloading for Iran talks failure
Risk appetite faded by midday as Iran-talk brinkmanship overtook the softer core-CPI relief, while fresh supply-chain and single-name developments added dispersion.• Markets/Oil: Trump told the New York Post that US warships are being reloaded to resume strikes if Pakistan talks fail; the S&P 500 turned down 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.5%, and US crude rose to about $99.• Iran/Lebanon: Iran’s Ghalibaf said talks cannot begin until a Lebanon cease-fire and blocked-asset release are implemented; Lebanon said an Israeli strike killed 13 state security personnel.• Macro/Consumer: University of Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 47.6, while one-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.8%.• Materials/Supply: China is moving to halt sulfuric acid exports from May, threatening copper and fertilizer supply chains already strained by the Iran war.• Single Names: Replimune fell more than 19% before a halt after a second FDA rejection; Palantir pared losses after Trump praised its war-fighting capabilities.
Futures firm after core CPI undershoots forecasts
Risk reaction was calmer than the headline inflation shock implied, helped by softer core services and incremental signs of selective Hormuz passage.• Macro/Rates: Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast, while supercore services posted the smallest gain since May; S&P futures rose 0.1%, Nasdaq futures 0.2%, and the 10-year yield held near 4.30%.• Diplomacy/Iran: Vance said the US expects “positive” Iran talks but warned Tehran not to “play” Washington; the delegation includes Witkoff and Kushner.• Shipping/Oil: Malaysia said seven stranded vessels received approval to leave Hormuz in stages without tolls after talks with Iran.• AI/Semis: Anthropic agreed to rent CoreWeave capacity using Nvidia chip architectures for Claude, adding another demand signal for AI infrastructure.• Private Credit: Ares is sounding investors on a smaller direct-lending fund, targeting roughly $20 billion after its record $33.6 billion predecessor.
CPI jumps on energy while Hormuz standstill worsens
Inflation and energy logistics remained the market’s pressure points, though AI hardware data offered an offset for semis.• Macro/Rates: March CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, the fastest annual pace since May 2024; energy prices rose 10.9%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Bloomberg said Hormuz remains effectively shut; FT counted more than 900 vessels stuck in the Gulf, with three Chinese tankers preparing to exit and a sanctioned-linked Russian-flagged VLCC entering.• Energy/Airlines: TotalEnergies said the Satorp refinery it owns with Saudi Aramco halted production after one processing train was damaged; ACI Europe warned EU airports face systemic jet-fuel shortages within three weeks without stable Hormuz passage.• Semis/AI: Taiwan exports surged 62% to a record $80.2 billion in March, far above the 34.7% estimate, on AI demand.• Defense: Lockheed won a $4.7 billion Pentagon Patriot-interceptor contract.
TSMC sales beat estimates as Iran delegation arrives for talks
AI hardware demand looked resilient, while Hormuz logistics remained the main commodity risk into the Pakistan talks.• Semis/AI: TSMC reported March-quarter revenue of NT$1.13 trillion, up 35% and slightly above consensus; March sales rose 45%, supporting Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Apple read-throughs.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Iran’s delegation arrived in Islamabad, while JD Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were en route; Iran’s parliament speaker demanded release of blocked assets before negotiations begin.• Shipping/Oil: WSJ said only eight ships crossed Hormuz Thursday versus a usual 135, and FT said more than 600 vessels remain stranded, including 26 South Korean-flagged ships; Seoul is sending an envoy.• Oil Reserves: Japan will release another 20 days of national oil reserves in May, while China allowed state refiners to tap commercial inventories.• Health Care: Abbott faces at least a $53 million infant-formula verdict, with punitive damages to be decided Friday.