Mar 26, 2026

Oil settles at 2022 high after Trump says Iran targets remain

A late risk-off close left oil and equities at fresh stress points, while Washington mixed negotiation signals with a longer target list.• Markets/Oil: Brent settled up 4.2% at $112.57, its highest close since July 2022; the S&P 500 fell 1.7% to a six-month low and the Nasdaq dropped 2.1%.• War/Nuclear: Iran said another projectile hit Bushehr at 11:40 p.m. local time, the third strike on the facility, with no reported damage; Trump said the US has 3,554 Iranian targets left.• Diplomacy/Hormuz: Witkoff said the US plans Iran meetings this week; Iran agreed to facilitate UN-requested humanitarian ships through Hormuz, while the Houthis threatened to intervene under conditions.• DHS/Travel: Trump ordered TSA officers paid, with checks possible Monday, but House Republicans rejected the Senate DHS bill and teed up a May 22 stopgap.• Credit/Alternatives: Blue Owl Credit Income lost 0.86% in February and HPS Corporate Lending Fund fell 0.3%, their weakest months since 2022.

Nasdaq drops after Iran nuclear strikes lift Brent above $112

Risk assets weakened further as energy-supply stress and confirmed nuclear-related strikes outweighed tentative signals that Washington is not preparing an immediate ground invasion.• Markets/Oil: Brent traded above $112; the Nasdaq fell 2% and the S&P 500 1.4%, with banks and consumer discretionary lagging while energy rose.• War/Nuclear: Israel confirmed strikes on Arak’s heavy-water plant and Ardakan’s yellowcake facility; Iran reported no radiation release, but separate cement and steel-site strikes killed workers.• Hormuz/Energy: Tracking showed only six vessels crossed Hormuz Thursday and 39 in seven days; Russia plans to ban gasoline exports April 1, and US rigs fell by nine to 543.• Policy/War: Rubio said the Iran campaign should take “weeks not months” and can meet objectives without ground troops, though deployed forces preserve options.• Credit/Tech: Oracle five-year CDS rose as much as 7.9 bp to 198.58 bp, near a record, on AI debt concerns.

Treasury yields hit July highs as Iranian media reports industrial strikes

Risk tone stayed defensive as the war broadened from shipping and energy into Iranian industrial and nuclear targets, while US data reinforced the inflation shock from higher fuel costs.• War/Industry: Iranian media said US-Israeli strikes hit Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel plants; Mobarakeh said power facilities and a steelmaking workshop were hit, and Fars said Khondab heavy-water research was targeted.• Rates/Macro: The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.48%, its highest since July, before easing; final Michigan sentiment fell to 53.3 and one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.8%.• Travel/Energy: Carnival cut FY EPS guidance to about $2.21 from $2.48 and raised expected fuel costs by one-third to $2.15 billion.• AI/Power: Meta will fund seven Entergy gas plants totaling 5.2GW for its Louisiana Hyperion data center, plus transmission, storage and nuclear uprates.• Cyber: Cybersecurity stocks slid after Fortune reported an Anthropic test model posed security risks; CRWD, PANW and ZS fell more than 5%.

Oil tops $111 after Iran turns back Hormuz vessels

Oil, rates and equity risk worsened as Hormuz restrictions hardened, LNG disruption widened and rate-cut pricing vanished.• Hormuz/Oil: The IRGC said it turned back three container ships and banned vessels to or from ports linked to US and Israeli supporters; Brent was quoted at $111.• Rates/Macro: The US 10-year yield rose to 4.46%, the highest of the war; CME showed zero odds of a Fed cut this year and a 54% chance of a hike.• LNG/Energy: QatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG shipments through May, people said, effectively canceling obligations on as many as 90 cargoes.• Equities/Trade: S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.6% after China opened two investigations into US trade practices; the VIX neared 30.• War/Defense: Israel vowed to expand strikes, including in Tehran; WaPo said US Tomahawk stocks in the region are alarmingly low.

Oil nears $110 after Iranian attacks hit US troops and Gulf ports

Escalation outweighed the latest deadline extension, with direct hits on Gulf infrastructure and US personnel keeping energy and rates pressure elevated.• War/Gulf: NYT reported, citing US officials, that an Iranian missile-and-drone strike injured 12 US troops at Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base, with two seriously hurt and at least two KC-135 tankers significantly damaged.• Shipping/Oil: Brent rose 1.3% to near $110 as Kuwait said drones hit Shuwaikh port and drones and missiles hit Mubarak Al-Kabeer; the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan also reported interceptions.• Hormuz/China: Two Cosco-linked container ships tried to exit Hormuz, changed signals to emphasize Chinese ownership and crew, then turned back near Iranian islands; Cosco has at least six crude tankers stuck in the Gulf.• Rates/Inflation: Spanish CPI jumped to 3.3%, while 10-year bund yields rose to 3.09% and gilts returned to 5%.

Oil rises after Pentagon weighs 10,000 more Middle East troops

Geopolitical risk stayed the key driver, with a larger US force option offsetting tentative equity stabilization in Asia and fresh evidence of energy-supply rationing across importers.• War/Oil: WSJ said the Pentagon is considering up to 10,000 additional ground troops near Iran and Kharg Island; Brent was quoted near $111 by NYT, though FT later had it around $107.• Asia/Equities: Early regional losses reversed partly; CSI 300 rose 0.4%, Hang Seng gained 0.3%, Kospi remained down 1.8%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%.• Energy/Supply: South Korea began a five-month naphtha export ban, Vietnam airlines announced April flight cuts, and India cut fuel taxes to shield refiners.• FX/Rates: Japan warned of “bold actions” as the yen neared 160 per dollar; FT said Treasury market liquidity is showing strain.

Oil retreats after mediators dispute Trump's Iran pause claim

After-hours trading partially unwound the crude spike, but policy risk stayed elevated as diplomats challenged the White House's account and Fed officials leaned inflation-first.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent fell to almost $103 after Trump's post, and WTI dropped toward $93; mediators told WSJ Iran had not requested the 10-day pause and had not delivered a final response.• Rates/Fed: Lisa Cook said Iran makes inflation the bigger Fed risk; Michael Barr backed holding rates, while the 10-year closed at 4.415% and the two-year at 3.983%.• Equities: The Nasdaq closed in correction territory, down more than 10% from its October peak; Asian equity futures pointed lower after the US selloff.• Shutdown/Travel: Trump said he would order TSA agents paid as DHS funding talks stalled and airport lines worsened.• Spirits/M&A: Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman confirmed merger talks; Brown-Forman rose while Pernod fell.

Oil settles above $108 after Trump questions Iran deal

Risk assets weakened into the afternoon as oil finished at a fresh war-driven high and verification of Hormuz traffic remained disputed.• Oil/Markets: Brent settled up 5.7% at $108.01, its biggest gain since March 11; WTI rose 4.6% to $94.48, while the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, Nasdaq 2% and two-year yields reached 3.97%.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Trump said eight Pakistan-flagged tankers passed as an Iranian gesture, but Bloomberg tracking showed no sign of them; he also said taking control of Iran’s oil was an option.• War/Israel: Israel said more than 60 jets hit Iranian weapons facilities, while Hezbollah killed one person in Nahariya and Israel expanded its Lebanon ground operation.• Company News: Netflix raised US plans by $1-$2 monthly; Meta lifted its El Paso data-center commitment to more than $10B; Pernod Ricard is said to be exploring Brown-Forman.

Iran counters US plan as Trump says 10 tankers passed Hormuz

War headlines remained mixed: Tehran hardened its stated terms even as US officials claimed signs of tanker movement and an eventual off-ramp.• Iran/Diplomacy: Tasnim and FT said Iran formally responded to the US 15-point plan with counterproposals demanding reparations, an end to assassinations, guarantees against renewed war and recognition of its Hormuz authority.• Hormuz/Oil: Trump said Iran allowed 10 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers through the strait as a “present”; Bessent said escorts and reinsurance would start “soon,” while Brent stayed around $107.• Credit/Private Markets: Bloomberg estimated more than $4.6B of private-credit redemptions are trapped behind fund limits, with Blue Owl tender windows now in focus.• Mega-Cap Tech: Meta fell about 8%, losing roughly $119B in market value, after back-to-back youth-safety verdicts; Google and Snap remain exposed to similar litigation.• Housing/Rates: Freddie Mac said the 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.38%, the highest since September.

Oil nears $107 after Hormuz traffic stops

Risk tone weakened as the Hormuz shutdown showed harder evidence, oil extended gains and chip-specific pressure added to the futures decline.• Oil/Hormuz: FT tracking recorded zero Strait of Hormuz crossings in both directions Wednesday, the first such day since hostilities began; Brent was up nearly 5% near $107.• War/Command: Israel said it killed IRGC Navy chief Alireza Tangsiri and other senior naval officials; Iran had not confirmed his death.• Diplomacy: Pakistan said US-Iran indirect talks are taking place and Tehran is reviewing a 15-point US plan, contradicting Iran's public denial of negotiations.• Chips/AI: Micron, Western Digital and Seagate sold off after Google's TurboQuant compression tool raised fears of lower AI memory needs.• Macro/Rates: Initial jobless claims rose to 210,000, while continuing claims fell 32,000 to 1.819 million, the lowest since May 2024.

Oil tops $105 while Trump extends Iran deadline

War news kept crude bid and equities defensive, while policy and deal flow showed the conflict feeding inflation and infrastructure spending.• Oil/Diplomacy: Trump pushed the deadline for Iran to fully reopen Hormuz to April 6, but Brent still rose 3.4% above $105 as talks remained disputed.• War/Targets: Iran said it attacked a US base in Kuwait and a Saudi air base used by US forces; damage was not immediately clear.• War/Hormuz: Israeli officials told NYT they targeted IRGC Navy commander Alireza Tangsiri, a key figure in the Hormuz shutdown; his status was unknown.• Macro/Rates: The OECD raised its US inflation forecast to 4.2% and expects US rates unchanged through 2026; ECB’s Nagel said an April hike is possible.• AI/Infrastructure: The US Army picked Carlyle and KKR-backed CyrusOne for multibillion-dollar data centers on bases under 50-year leases.

Oil rises while Asian stocks tumble on wider war risks

War spillovers worsened risk tone in Asia, with fresh transport, supply and credit stress adding to the inflation shock.• Markets/Oil: Brent rose 2.3% to $104.58, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.4%; the CSI 300 lost 1.1% and Hang Seng 1.9%.• War/Israel: Iran fired missiles toward Israel; authorities reported impacts near Kafr Qasim east of Tel Aviv and six minor injuries.• Shipping/Oil: A Turkish Suezmax carrying about 1 million barrels of Urals crude was disabled near the Bosporus after a suspected undersea attack; Turkey reported no spill or casualties.• Energy/Supply: Traders expect Saudi Aramco’s April shipments to China to fall to about 40 million barrels from 48 million in February, with India also below recent levels.• Credit/Policy: ING said private-credit stress and the war have lifted funding costs for some high-beta borrowers by as much as 400 bp; South Korea announced a $3.3B bond buyback.

Oil rises after Iran moves to formalize Hormuz tolls

Oil risk firmed again as Hormuz access, energy logistics and conflict spillovers outweighed still-contradictory diplomacy signals.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to charge security fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, with Fars saying it could be finalized next week; Brent rose as much as 1% to $103.27 in early Asia.• Diplomacy/War: Trump insisted Iran is negotiating, while Abbas Araghchi again denied talks and said only vessels from “friendly countries,” including China, Russia and India, had passed Hormuz.• Russia/Nuclear: FT, citing western intelligence, said Russia is close to completing drone shipments to Iran; Rosatom plans several evacuation rounds from Bushehr after projectiles hit the plant grounds.• LNG/Fuel: Asian and European buyers are seeking extra US LNG after Ras Laffan’s shutdown cut about a fifth of global supply; USPS plans a temporary 8% package surcharge from April 26.• Deals/Tech: Bloomberg reported Henkel is in advanced talks to buy Olaplex around $2/share; Meta and Google plan to appeal a $6M addiction-trial verdict.

Oil settles lower while Iran denies US talks

Risk appetite improved, but contradictory Iran diplomacy, unresolved shipping constraints and firmer inflation signals kept the tape fragile.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent settled 2.2% lower at $102.22 and later was down 1.4%; the White House called talks productive, but Iran’s foreign minister said none had occurred.• War/Hormuz: The White House said US forces struck nearly 50 Iranian mine-laying ships and more than 9,000 targets, but gave no timeline for tanker transits to resume.• Diplomacy/Targets: WSJ reported the US and Israel temporarily removed Ghalibaf and Araghchi from a kill list for four to five days while mediators seek talks.• Rates/Fed: A weak $70B five-year auction followed Tuesday’s soft two-year sale; Fed Governor Miran raised his rate projection by 50 bp on inflation data.• Travel/Airlines: Nearly 50 aviation groups urged Congress to end the DHS shutdown as Gulf airspace closures still strand tens of thousands.

Oil firms after Iran broadens shipping threats

Energy risk re-priced higher as the war threatened another maritime chokepoint, while single-name news hit airlines, internet platforms and defense suppliers.• Shipping/Oil: IRGC-linked Tasnim said Iran could control Bab al-Mandeb and open new fronts if the US takes ground action; crude, the dollar and yields got a brief bump after Press TV said Bushehr was struck again.• Energy/Supply: EIA said US crude inventories rose 6.93 million barrels, while Saudi shipments from Yanbu averaged 4.4 million b/d over five days, near its 5 million target.• Airlines/M&A: JetBlue rose after Semafor reported it hired advisers to explore a sale to United, Alaska or Southwest; the report remains unconfirmed.• Internet/Litigation: A Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google liable in a social-media addiction case, raising read-across risk for thousands of similar suits.• Defense: The Pentagon sought to shift about $1.5B toward Patriot, THAAD and SM-3 interceptors from Lockheed and RTX.

Stocks rise while Iran sets conditions for talks

Risk assets held gains as investors looked through Tehran’s tougher public line, while fresh inflation data and single-name tech news added cross-currents.• Iran/Diplomacy: Fars and Press TV said Iran rejects a cease-fire, will end the war on its own timing and will not hold talks until five conditions are met, including reparations and recognition of authority over Hormuz.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 rose about 0.5%-0.6% and the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%; Brent stayed around or below $100, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%.• Macro/Prices: US import prices rose 1.3% in February, the most since 2022; excluding petroleum, they gained 1.2%, and export prices rose 1.5%.• Tech/Defense: Arm jumped 16% after unveiling its first in-house chip. Meta is cutting several hundred jobs, while the Pentagon signed frameworks to quadruple THAAD production capacity.

Stocks rise after Iran receives US cease-fire proposal

Risk appetite improved on cease-fire optionality, but shipping, energy-inflation and travel-fuel stress remain unresolved.• Diplomacy/Markets: AP reported Iran received the US 15-point proposal; FT said the Stoxx 600 rose 1.5%, Brent fell 5.2% to $99 and European gas slid over 6%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran is asking ships seeking protected passage for crew and cargo lists, voyage documents and sometimes fees; Cosco reopened Gulf container bookings, but sources said Strait transits remain very limited.• Rates/Macro: Lagarde said the ECB could change rates at any meeting if energy inflation spreads; German Ifo expectations fell to 86, the lowest in over a year.• Airlines/Fuel: Asia showed jet-fuel hoarding; South Korea cited refueling limits, Vietnam warned of April shortages and United’s CEO said fares may rise.• Pharma: Merck agreed to buy Terns for $6.7B, or $53/share cash, to bolster its pipeline before Keytruda patent expirations.

Philippines declares energy emergency as Iran denies negotiations

The de-escalation trade became less one-way as Asian fuel stress worsened and Tehran publicly rejected the talks narrative, though policy responses aimed to cushion the oil shock.• Energy/Asia: The Philippines declared a one-year national energy emergency, citing only 45 days of oil supplies and warning that jet-fuel shortages could ground planes.• Diplomacy/Oil: Iran’s central military command denied negotiations and said oil prices would not normalize until Washington accepted Iran’s regional role, contradicting US claims of productive contacts.• Markets/War: Brent fell to about $96.50, then moved back above $100; Asian equities rose 1.8%, while Stoxx 50 futures pared gains to 0.9%.• Policy/Supply: Japan asked the IEA to prepare another coordinated reserve release, Thailand ended its diesel cap, and India booked 60 million barrels of Russian oil for April.• China Internet: Alibaba and JD.com rallied after Beijing moved to curb food-delivery price wars.