Apr 15, 2026

S&P hits record as Lebanon cease-fire frays

US risk appetite held up, but Middle East de-escalation looked uneven after the Lebanon truce formally began and crude stayed volatile.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 closed up 0.3% at another record and Nasdaq gained 0.4%; Brent settled nearly 5% higher at $99.39, while WTI later fell toward $93 on Trump’s upbeat Iran-deal comments.• Lebanon: The cease-fire took effect at 5 p.m. ET with no initial hostilities reported, but Lebanon’s state agency later reported Israeli shelling of Khiam and Debbine and Israeli overflights; the IDF warned residents to stay north of the Litani River.• Energy: Trump officials urged Exxon, Chevron, Diamondback, Devon and Occidental to lift output, saying the Hormuz disruption had removed about 16mn b/d and should last weeks, not months.• Media: Netflix revenue rose 16% to $12.3bn and EPS beat, but 2Q EPS guidance of $0.78 missed; Reed Hastings will leave the board in June.

Oil pares gains after Trump claims Iran uranium concession

Oil headlines turned two-way: futures hit fresh highs on blockade risk, then eased after Trump claimed progress toward an Iran nuclear deal, while Lebanon cease-fire terms remained fragile.• Iran/Oil: WTI was up about 4% at $95 and Brent 5% at $99.75 before Trump said Iran agreed to turn over highly enriched uranium and talks may resume this weekend; Iran has not confirmed.• Lebanon Truce: Netanyahu confirmed the 10-day cease-fire but said Israeli troops will stay in a 10km southern Lebanon buffer; Hezbollah demanded no Israeli freedom of movement, and rocket fire intensified before the start.• Rates/Credit: Henry Paulson urged a Treasury “break-the-glass” plan for a potential demand collapse, warning a debt crisis would be “vicious.”• Single Names: JPMorgan was released from an OCC trading-surveillance order; Madison Air jumped 19% in its industrial IPO; CenterPoint must keep an Indiana coal unit open.

Trump announces Israel-Lebanon ceasefire as Brent climbs on US-Iran doubts

Geopolitical news stayed the market driver: a Lebanon ceasefire claim helped risk sentiment, but oil remained bid as traders questioned the path to a broader US-Iran deal.• Mideast/Oil: Brent rose 2.8% to about $97.54 as US-Iran talks still lacked a deal; Trump separately said Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire from 5 p.m. ET, not yet confirmed by Israel or Hezbollah.• Hormuz/Shipping: Centcom said 14 vessels had complied with the Iran-port blockade, up from 13; a US Hormuz tanker-insurance program covering up to $40bn is nearly ready, while spot tanker risk premiums reached about $475,000 a day.• Credit/Banks: Bloomberg said JPMorgan, Goldman and Barclays are tightening financing to private-credit funds by raising leverage rates and marking down collateral.• Transports/Retail: J.B. Hunt signaled a freight recovery, while Allbirds fell as much as 31% after Wednesday’s AI-driven 582% surge.

US broadens Iran blockade as jobless claims fall

Premarket risk had a sturdier labor print against a more expansive Iran-shipping operation and fresh single-name regulatory and earnings news.• Iran/Oil: The US widened the blockade to sanctioned vessels and suspected contraband ships regardless of location, including Indo-Pacific pursuits; the Pentagon said 13 ships turned around and none had been boarded.• Macro/Rates: Initial jobless claims fell 11,000 to 207,000, but March industrial production unexpectedly dropped 0.5%; Fed’s Williams said policy remains well positioned for war-driven supply risks.• Internet/AI: The EU proposed forcing Google to share ranking, query, click and view data with search and AI rivals; Google called the plan an overreach.• Financials: BNY Mellon, U.S. Bancorp and Schwab beat or topped key estimates, while BofA launched a five-part investment-grade bond sale.• Health Care: Lilly said its Foundayo obesity pill was at least as good as older insulin in a cardiovascular study.

TSMC lifts AI trade while Hormuz shipping shifts to Iranian route

Risk tone was firmer in Asia on AI and China support, but oil-market plumbing stayed stressed and single-name news was active into US premarket.• AI/Semis: TSMC’s March-quarter profit rose 58% to NT$572.5bn, ahead of NT$542.4bn estimates, and it raised its revenue outlook; its ADRs still slipped 3% while AMD gained and NVDA hovered near a potential 12-day winning streak.• Hormuz/Oil: Lloyd’s List said 15 of 27 large ships crossing Hormuz since April 13 used Iran’s mandated coastal route, none used the mainstream route, and 81% had Iran links.• Autos: Bloomberg said SpaceX accounted for 1,279 of 7,071 US Cybertruck registrations in 4Q; without Musk-company purchases, registrations would have fallen 51%.• Consumer/Health: PepsiCo beat on sales and profit and reaffirmed guidance, while Abbott fell 6% after cutting its full-year earnings outlook.

Iran-linked ships enter Gulf as China growth beats forecasts

Asia news was mixed for risk: China’s growth beat helped cyclicals, while new ship-tracking data kept the Hormuz blockade story contested.• Hormuz/Oil: Bloomberg said at least two sanctioned Iran-linked vessels crossed into the Gulf via an unusual UAE route; Centcom still said none breached the blockade, and traffic was about 11 ships Tuesday versus roughly 135 before the war.• China Macro: First-quarter GDP rose 5% year over year, above the 4.8% forecast, though March retail sales missed at 1.7% and property investment fell 11.2%.• AI/Semis: Musk’s team asked AMAT, Tokyo Electron and LRCX for quotes on a Terafab pilot line in Austin, according to people familiar; no orders have been placed.• Defense: Australia plans to lift defense spending to 3% of GDP by 2033, adding A$53bn over a decade.

S&P closes above 7,000 while Spirit faces liquidation risk

Risk appetite firmed into the close, but the after-hours tape added fresh single-name stress from airlines, banks and health care.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 closed up 0.8% at 7,022.95, its first finish above 7,000; the Nasdaq rose 1.6% to a record and WTI settled 1 cent higher at $91.29.• Hormuz/Iran: Centcom said a US destroyer redirected an Iranian-flagged cargo ship and that 10 vessels have now been turned back; Treasury sanctioned more than two dozen Shamkhani-linked oil entities, people and vessels.• Airlines: Bloomberg said bankrupt Spirit could decide as soon as this week whether to liquidate as war-driven fuel costs squeeze cash.• Single Names: Hims jumped as much as 12% after RFK Jr. backed looser peptide rules; Goldman blamed a rates-trading hit for a FICC miss; a review questioned Lilly/Biogen Alzheimer’s drugs.

S&P 500 hits record after Bessent tightens Iran oil pressure

Equities extended the rebound even as policy risk around energy flows and the Iran negotiations stayed unresolved.• Markets: The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to an intraday record of 7,004, with strong earnings and peace hopes outweighing war-cost concerns.• Oil/Sanctions: Bessent said the US will not renew Russian and Iranian oil waivers, warned two Chinese banks on secondary sanctions and said Chinese buying of Iranian oil had paused.• Diplomacy/Oil: The White House denied formally seeking a ceasefire extension; talks are expected to continue in Pakistan, while Iran has not committed to another round.• Macro/Rates: The Fed Beige Book said activity grew slightly to modestly, but energy and fuel costs rose sharply in all 12 districts.• Single Names: A jury found Live Nation illegally monopolized ticketing markets; BofA said commodities-trading revenue jumped 60%.

Stocks near record while blockade claims conflict

US equities held near record territory, but the Middle East tape stayed messy: ceasefire-extension talk lowered tail risk while shipping data and official claims conflicted.• Markets: The S&P 500 rose about 0.2%-0.3% and was on pace for its first record close since January, with financials and technology leading.• Hormuz/Oil: The US and Iran are weighing a two-week ceasefire extension, Bloomberg said, but a US official said no extension has been agreed.• Shipping: Centcom said no ships evaded the blockade in its first 48 hours and nine vessels turned back; FT said two sanctioned tankers entered the Gulf toward Iran.• Macro/Rates: The IMF warned Treasury issuance is eroding the US safety premium, while yields rose 2-3 bp after a rally.• Single Names: NOV cut first-quarter adjusted earnings guidance to $177mn; Allbirds surged after a $50mn AI-compute pivot.

Fed risk rises after Trump threatens Powell as banks beat estimates

Policy risk moved back to the center of the tape, while bank results stayed supportive and blockade headlines turned more contradictory.• Fed/Politics: Trump said he would fire Jerome Powell if the Fed chair does not step down “in time” and would not stop the DOJ renovation probe; Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing is set for April 21.• Banks: Morgan Stanley earned $3.43 a share versus $3.02 expected on record $20.58bn revenue; BofA earned $1.11 versus $1.01, with equity-trading revenue up 30%.• Credit/Private Credit: BofA disclosed about $20bn of private-credit exposure, and PNC disclosed $7bn to private-credit providers; S&P warned prime-brokerage lending topped $2.5tn in 2024.• Oil/Geopolitics: Iran rejected an IMO safe-corridor plan and said two Iran-bound ships passed the US blockade, contradicting Centcom.• AI/Cloud: Jane Street invested another $1bn in CoreWeave at $109 a share and plans about $6bn of AI-service spending.

Oil rises after Iran threatens wider Gulf trade halt

Oil risk reasserted itself in early Europe while AI capex and trade-policy headlines added cross-currents for US futures.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent reversed higher, up 1% at $95.68, and WTI rose 0.3% to $91.63 after Iran threatened to stop exports and imports across the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman and Red Sea if the US blockade continues.• Hormuz Shipping: FT said the Greek-owned Seachampion attempted to exit Hormuz after calling at an Iranian port, a fresh test after other vessels stopped or U-turned.• Semiconductors: ASML raised its 2026 sales outlook to €36bn-€40bn from €34bn-€39bn, citing AI-driven demand for chipmaking tools.• Trade Policy: China denied giving Iran military support and vowed countermeasures if Trump imposes a threatened 50% tariff; Trump also told Sky News the UK tariff deal could be changed.• Autos: Stellantis said North America shipments rose 17% in the first quarter.

Centcom says Iran blockade fully implemented while Bessent flags July tariff restoration

Late news reintroduced policy and enforcement risk after the equity rally, with tariff timing, Fed-politics headlines and a harder blockade claim offsetting peace-talk optimism.• Hormuz/Oil: Centcom said the blockade was fully implemented, claiming sea trade into and out of Iran was halted in under 36 hours; US officials said eight Iran-linked tankers reversed without boarding.• Diplomacy/Oil: Trump told Fox Business the Iran war was “very close to over,” but also said “we’re not finished”; Brent was 0.2% lower in Asia at $94.61.• Trade Policy: Bessent said Trump tariff rates could be restored by early July through Section 301 studies after the Supreme Court setback.• Fed/Politics: Bloomberg said DOJ prosecutors made an unannounced Fed visit tied to the Powell renovation probe; Fed counsel objected.• Single Names: Nike rose 2% after Tim Cook and CEO Elliott Hill disclosed nearly $1mn purchases each.

Stocks near record after oil futures slump

Risk appetite strengthened into the close, though physical energy markets and sanctions headlines kept the oil relief trade from looking clean.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to within 0.2 percentage point of a record, while the Nasdaq gained about 2% for a 10th straight advance. WTI settled down 7.9% at $91.28 and Brent fell 4.6% to $94.79.• Physical Crude: WSJ said spot Brent-linked supplies still traded near $125, and near-term US cargoes to Europe were more than $20 higher, showing refiners remain short real barrels.• Hormuz/Sanctions: More than 20 commercial ships passed Hormuz in 24 hours, US officials told WSJ, while Treasury said a waiver covering some stranded Iranian oil will expire April 19.• Tech/AI: Meta expanded its Broadcom custom-chip partnership to more than 1 gigawatt of AI compute; Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will leave Meta’s board.

Oil falls after Trump says US-Iran talks could resume within two days

Oil and rates remained the main cross-asset drivers: crude fell on renewed diplomacy, but Fed commentary and retail fuel costs kept the inflation tail risk alive.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent fell as low as $94.87 after Trump said US-Iran talks could resume in Islamabad within two days; the UN said a restart was highly probable.• Rates/Macro: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said energy-driven inflation could delay rate cuts; markets now price no Fed cuts before year-end, according to FT.• Airlines/Fuel: Delta said jet-fuel prices doubled in a month, adding $2.5bn of quarterly cost, and it may pass costs to customers or pause unprofitable routes.• Industrials: Boeing delivered 143 jets in the first quarter, up 10% year over year and ahead of Airbus’s 114 deliveries.

Stocks rise after producer prices undershoot forecasts

Cooler wholesale inflation supported equities, while the IMF put numbers on the growth hit from the Middle East war. Deal flow and bank earnings added single-name support, but Hormuz enforcement remained unresolved.• Macro/Markets: March PPI rose 0.5% versus 0.7% expected, with core up 0.1%; S&P futures gained 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.5%.• IMF/Energy: The IMF cut 2026 global growth to 3.1% from 3.3% and warned a severe war scenario could push growth below 2%.• Telecom/Space: Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar for $90 a share in cash or capped stock; GSAT jumped 9.6% and AMZN rose 3.8%.• Banks: Citi profit rose 42% to $5.8bn, RoTCE reached 13.1%, and shares touched their highest level since 2008.• Hormuz: FT said three more Iran-linked ships tried to transit; Bloomberg said sanctioned tanker Rich Starry appeared to U-turn after crossing.

JPMorgan slips as NFIB optimism hits one-year low

Bank results and US small-business data added fundamental cross-currents to the oil-driven relief trade, while blockade enforcement remained contested.• Banks: JPMorgan posted record $11.6bn trading revenue and $16.5bn profit, but shares dipped after it cut 2026 net-interest-income guidance to $103bn from $104.5bn.• Banks/Credit: Wells Fargo fell about 5% after net interest income and fee income missed estimates; it disclosed $36.2bn of private-credit exposure within $210.2bn of nonbank lending.• Macro: NFIB small-business optimism fell to 95.8, a nearly one-year low, with owners citing oil-price spikes and uncertainty.• Hormuz/Trade: France and the UK set a Friday summit on a defensive navigation mission; FT said tanker Elpis, loaded at Iran's Bushehr, transited Hormuz.• Single Names: BlackRock EPS beat at $12.53 with $130bn inflows but AUM fell to $13.9tn; J&J raised 2026 guidance.

IEA sees oil demand contracting as US blockade claims conflict

Energy data turned more demand-negative, while blockade enforcement remained disputed and European risk assets extended the relief rally.• Energy/IEA: The IEA now expects 2026 oil consumption to contract by 80,000 barrels a day, versus prior growth of 730,000, and said Hormuz flows fell to 3.8 million barrels a day from about 20 million.• Blockade/Shipping: FT and ship-tracking data said Rich Starry and Elpis passed through Hormuz, while WSJ reported the US said no ships had passed its Iran blockade in the first 24 hours.• Markets/Rates: The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% and Germany’s DAX gained 0.9% with oil below $100; 10-year gilt and Bund yields fell 5 and 4 basis points.• Energy/Companies: BP said first-quarter oil trading was “exceptional,” though net debt rose by about $3 billion to $5 billion.• Airlines: Delta removed its 2030 sustainable-fuel target and softened its 2050 net-zero goal.