May 6, 2026

Trump says Iran cease-fire holds as China oil imports drop

Risk tone was mixed: Trump tried to preserve the Iran truce despite tougher threats, Asian equities weakened, and earnings added stock dispersion.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the cease-fire remained in effect, calling the US strikes a “love tap” and a “trifle,” but warned Iran of a more violent response if no deal is signed. Brent traded at $102.35, with WTI at $96.74.• Military/Shipping: US officials said strikes hit Iranian drone launch sites, coastal-defense missile sites and radars on Qeshm, Bandar Abbas and Garuk; Saudi Arabia reportedly lifted base and overflight restrictions but still has not backed Project Freedom.• Oil Demand: China cut overseas crude imports to 8.2 million barrels a day from about 11.7 million prewar, with state firms reselling cargoes.• Single Stocks: Block and Monster rose 8% after results, CoreWeave fell 9%, and Sony jumped 7.3% on a $3.2 billion buyback.• Tech/Regulation: A judge denied Google’s bid to pause part of the search remedy during appeal.

Trade court blocks Trump tariff as oil jumps

Legal and geopolitical risk pulled in opposite directions: a court narrowed Trump’s tariff powers, while fresh Gulf fighting lifted crude and pressured futures.• Trade/Tariffs: The Court of International Trade declared Trump’s 10% global tariff unlawful under Section 122, immediately blocking collection only for suing small businesses and states; an appeal is expected, and Section 301 replacements may take weeks or months.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 2.2% after-hours to $103.54 after reports of explosions at Qeshm, Bandar Abbas and Tehran; CENTCOM said no US assets were hit, while Iran accused Washington of violating the cease-fire.• Markets/Rates: S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3%, the dollar strengthened and the 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points.• Tech/AI: Nvidia agreed to invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN via warrants for as many as 30 million shares at $70.• Software: Cloudflare fell more than 15% late after cutting about 1,100 jobs and guiding second-quarter revenue slightly below consensus.

Oil stays below $100 after Saudi Arabia withholds support for US Hormuz escort plan

Crude stayed weaker despite heavier Gulf risk, while inflation-linked rate concerns and stock-specific earnings/IPO moves drove dispersion.• Hormuz: FT reported, citing people familiar, that Trump halted Project Freedom after Saudi Arabia refused US use of bases or airspace; Windward said AIS-dark Strait traffic rose 600%.• Iran/Oil: Iran said it had not responded to the US proposal, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iran likely cut output by 400,000 barrels a day.• Rates/Consumer: NY Fed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.6%, mortgage rates climbed to 6.37%, and Fed officials warned rates may stay high or rise if Hormuz remains closed.• Single Stocks: Cheniere fell nearly 10% on an unexpected $3.5 billion hedge-driven loss, Planet Fitness slid over 30%, and Hawkeye 360 rose 30% after its IPO.

Oil swings after US and Iran exchange fire near Hormuz

US stocks opened slightly higher even as Gulf headlines turned more kinetic and crude pricing became inconsistent across reports; earnings dispersion stayed wide in software, restaurants and financials.• Oil/Geopolitics: CENTCOM said Iran attacked three US destroyers with missiles, drones and small boats, prompting US strikes on Iranian launch, command and ISR sites; Brent was reported up 3.3% to $103.41, though later commentary still showed crude below $100 on diplomacy hopes.• Iran Diplomacy: WSJ detailed a one-page, 14-point US-Iran memorandum that could restart talks next week in Islamabad, wind back the US blockade, ease Hormuz controls and discuss moving some highly enriched uranium abroad.• Software: Datadog jumped after raising 2026 revenue guidance to $4.3 billion-$4.34 billion and adjusted EPS to as much as $2.44.• Consumer: Shake Shack fell as much as 22% on a revenue miss, while Planet Fitness dropped after cutting its 2026 sales-growth outlook to about 7%.• Banks: Citi targeted 11%-13% ROTCE by 2028 and 14%-15% by 2031; Carlyle missed as distributable earnings fell 28%.

Oil falls below $100 while Iran formalizes Hormuz transit permits

Oil extended its diplomacy-driven selloff, but Tehran also moved to institutionalize control of Hormuz traffic, keeping shipping risk alive.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent fell more than 2% to about $99 as markets priced progress toward US-Iran talks; Iran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to permit and toll transits, and no ships crossed Wednesday.• Shipping/Credit: A CMA CGM vessel made a rare dark crossing out of the Gulf; Saudi PIF launched three-, seven- and 30-year dollar bonds, signaling Gulf issuance is reopening.• Energy/Transport: Shell beat with $6.92 billion of adjusted profit but cut buybacks to $3 billion; Maersk said the oil shock adds about $500 million of monthly costs.• FX/Rates: Japan likely spent about $30 billion in follow-up yen intervention, while Norway unexpectedly raised rates to 4.25%.• Tech: Arm fell about 10% premarket after saying supply limits constrain new-chip demand.

China curbs refiner lending as Asian stocks rally on US-Iran hopes

Risk tone improved in Asia, while China’s quiet compliance step on sanctioned refiners added a fresh wrinkle to Iran-oil enforcement.• China/Sanctions: Beijing told major banks to pause new yuan loans to five US-sanctioned refiners tied to Iranian oil, even after the Commerce Ministry told firms to ignore US sanctions.• Markets/Geopolitics: Japan’s Nikkei jumped 5% to near 62,500, Hang Seng rose 1.2%, Brent edged up 0.8% to $102 and the US 10-year yield held near 4.35%.• FX/Japan: Japan said it is monitoring speculative yen moves with urgency; Bessent is expected to meet Takaichi, Katayama and Ueda next week.• Travel/Health: The Hondius hantavirus outbreak has killed three and sickened five, with about 150 passengers and crew isolated en route to Tenerife.• Boeing/China: Sen. Daines said he hopes upcoming US-China talks lead to more Boeing aircraft purchases.

Fortinet jumps after outlook hike as France pushes Hormuz escort plan

After-hours stock reactions drove the cleanest equity signal, while Europe floated a conditional Hormuz security plan and private-credit marks deteriorated.• Software: Fortinet rose as much as 24% after lifting its 2026 revenue outlook to $7.7 billion-$7.9 billion, above the $7.6 billion consensus, on stronger billings.• Consumer/Internet: DoorDash gained 12% after guiding second-quarter gross order value to $32.4 billion-$33.4 billion; Whirlpool fell 17% after cutting EPS guidance to $3-$3.50 and suspending its dividend.• Semis/Media: Arm fell more than 7% after hours despite a slightly above-consensus forecast, while Snap dropped after saying Middle East disruption cost $20 million-$25 million of March ad revenue.• Hormuz: France proposed tanker escorts if the US lifts its blockade and Iran commits to talks; Paris also sent a carrier group south of the Red Sea.• Credit: Apollo MidCap’s NAV fell, Blue Owl cut one BDC dividend, and banks face a possible $500 million Qualtrics debt loss.

Oil pares losses after US disables Iran-flagged tanker

Oil risk premium rebuilt into the afternoon as diplomacy remained live but military incidents broadened; single-name news added pressure in airlines and payments while Lilly extended its obesity-drug lead.• Oil/Geopolitics: CENTCOM said an F/A-18 disabled the rudder of the Iran-flagged tanker Hasna after it tried to violate the US blockade; Brent rebounded from below $98 to about $101.22, still down 7.9%.• Iran Diplomacy: Trump said Iran had agreed not to have nuclear weapons and reported “good talks,” but Tasnim said the US proposal contained “unacceptable provisions.”• Middle East Risk: Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs, targeting a Hezbollah Radwan commander in the first attack on the Lebanese capital since the April 17 cease-fire.• Airlines/Payments: US airlines’ March fuel bill rose 56%; the UK opened an antitrust probe into PayPal, Visa and Mastercard.• Pharma: Lilly’s Mounjaro posted $8.7 billion in quarterly sales, overtaking Merck’s Keytruda at $7.9 billion.

Oil falls while Iran warns ships against Hormuz crossings without permission

Markets kept leaning toward de-escalation, though Tehran’s latest maritime warnings limited conviction and US data stayed firm.• Hormuz/Markets: Brent was about 6% lower after falling as much as 11%, while the S&P 500 opened up 0.6%-0.7% and the 10-year yield fell to 4.36%.• Hormuz/Shipping: WSJ reported IRGC radio warnings that vessels crossing without permission or outside specified routes “will be targeted”; Iran said roughly 1,500 vessels are waiting.• Macro/Rates: ADP said private payrolls rose 109,000 in April, below the 120,000 estimate but the strongest since early 2025; Fed’s Musalem said inflation risks are rising.• Deals/Earnings: Corning jumped 12% after Nvidia bought $500 million of equity rights; CVS, Disney and Uber all beat or guided above consensus.

Oil tumbles after Axios reports US-Iran memo is close

Risk appetite strengthened on a reported diplomatic breakthrough, but shipping and consumer-energy stress still undercut a clean de-escalation call.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent fell as much as 8%-12%, with cited levels near $101-$102, after Axios said the US and Iran were close to a one-page MOU to end the war; no deal is agreed, and Washington expects Iran’s response within 48 hours.• FX/Rates: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped as much as 0.8% to its lowest since the war began, while 10-year gilts fell below 5% as BoE hike bets eased.• Hormuz/Shipping: CMA CGM said the San Antonio was attacked in Hormuz, injuring crew; shipowners said traffic remains near zero, and US naval units repelled threats Tuesday.• Energy/Consumers: AAA put US gasoline at $4.536 a gallon, the highest since July 2022 and more than 40% above year-ago levels.

Oil falls after Iran reviews US proposal

Risk tone improved in Asia as oil extended its retreat, though diplomacy still carried conflicting signals.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent traded near $108 and WTI near $100.58 after Iran said it was reviewing a US proposal; Trump also warned bombing would resume at higher intensity if Tehran rejected a deal.• Markets/Asia: S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%, Stoxx 600 futures added 0.7%, and South Korea’s Kospi jumped 6%.• China/Macro: RatingDog’s China services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.6 versus 52 forecast, contradicting the official services contraction.• FX/Rates: The yen rallied as much as 1.8% to 155.04 per dollar after recent Japanese intervention.• Crypto: Strategy signaled it may sell Bitcoin if accretive, softening prior no-sale messaging.

AMD rises on upbeat AI forecast as cargo ship is struck near Hormuz

After-hours news was led by AI hardware earnings, renewed Hormuz incident risk and fresh pressure in credit-sensitive vehicles.• AI Chips: AMD rose after guiding second-quarter sales to $11.2 billion, above the $10.5 billion estimate, with data-center revenue up 57%; Super Micro also guided profit above consensus.• Hormuz/Shipping: UKMTO said a cargo vessel was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, while Crowley identified CS Anthem as one of the ships that crossed safely under US support.• Rates/Macro: Swaps now price more than a 50% chance that a Warsh-led Fed raises rates by next April, with 30-year Treasury yields near 5%.• Private Credit: Sixth Street Specialty Lending cut its dividend, and Oaktree Specialty Lending marked down software loans and flagged 26% AI exposure.• EVs: Lucid fell after revenue missed and quarterly deliveries dropped to 3,093.

Rubio calls Hormuz escort defensive as Iran asserts transit authority

Geopolitical risk stayed centered on Hormuz, but the bigger equity tape drivers were AI infrastructure demand and company-specific guidance, with airlines also repricing Spirit’s exit.• Hormuz/Policy: Rubio said Project Freedom is defensive, with no firing unless attacked, and aims to free almost 23,000 civilians from 87 countries; he said Iran’s trade is 90% halted and revenue hit up to $500 million a day.• Hormuz/Control: Iranian state media said Tehran created a Persian Gulf Strait Authority requiring prior authorization for Hormuz transit; the US is backing a UN draft that could authorize sanctions or military action, though Russia or China could veto it.• AI/Infrastructure: OpenAI expects $50 billion of 2026 compute spending; CoreWeave tightened pricing on a $3.1 billion GPU loan after $15 billion-plus of orders, and Sterling Infrastructure jumped as much as 51% on data-center demand.• Airlines: Frontier rose more than 9% after saying Spirit’s collapse should lift revenue per seat 3%-5%, possibly more.• Tech/Regulation: Apple plans to let users choose third-party AI models across iOS 27, while Ireland opened DSA probes into Meta feeds.

Hormuz risks rise after Iran launches fresh UAE attacks

Geopolitical risk re-accelerated around Hormuz, while US data were steady enough for risk assets and AI continued to reshape corporate guidance and partnerships.• Hormuz/Mideast: The UAE said its air defenses were engaging a fresh wave of Iranian missiles and drones; the Pentagon also said Iran laid additional mines in Hormuz during the cease-fire, limiting traffic capacity.• Macro/Housing: March JOLTS openings were little changed at 6.87 million versus 6.85 million expected, while new-home sales rose 7.4% to a 682,000 annualized pace, above estimates.• Regulation/Markets: The SEC proposed letting public companies report semiannually instead of quarterly, a transparency tradeoff Mnuchin called a “very good idea.”• AI/Software: Anthropic’s CEO warned some SaaS incumbents could go bankrupt, while Blackstone and KKR are in talks with Alphabet on portfolio-company access to Google AI tools.• Single Names: PayPal fell 8% on cost-cut plans; Wynn may delay its UAE resort opening because of war disruptions.

Stocks rise after Pentagon says Iran attacks do not break cease-fire

Risk appetite improved after the Pentagon kept the Iran clash below its war-restart threshold, though shipping and rate stress stayed visible.• Hormuz/Markets: S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.6%, while WTI fell about 2% to roughly $104 after Hegseth said the cease-fire still holds.• Hormuz/Shipping: Caine said Iran has fired on merchant vessels nine times, seized two ships and attacked US forces more than 10 times since the cease-fire; he cited 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners trapped in the Gulf.• Rates/Macro: UK 30-year gilt yields hit 5.78%, the highest since 1998; the US trade deficit widened 4.4% to $60.3 billion, slightly better than estimates.• Single Names: Coinbase rose after announcing 14% job cuts; Shopify fell on slowing-growth guidance, while Pfizer and KKR beat estimates.

Oil falls after Trump pauses Hormuz escort operation

Risk tone improved as Washington signaled a pause in Hormuz escorts, but shipping and inflation stress remained evident across energy, airlines and company guidance.• Hormuz/Markets: Brent fell 4% to $109.87 and WTI dropped 3.9% to $102.27, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to a record after Trump said he was pausing Project Freedom for a short period.• Iran/Diplomacy: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned ships from “hostile countries” would be dealt with unless they had Tehran’s permission; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is heading to Beijing.• Industrials/Agriculture: DuPont raised 2026 EPS guidance to $2.35-$2.40 and rose 8.4% premarket; ADM lifted its outlook to $4.15-$4.70 and gained 1.6%.• Software/Payments: FIS rose about 5% on an Anthropic AI partnership, while Palantir and PayPal fell despite results and cost-cutting plans.

Brent slips while Hormuz traffic nears zero

Asian trading showed limited cross-asset stress despite fresh shipping disruption, while chip-supply diversification and offshore inflation pressures added company and macro angles.• Hormuz/Markets: Brent fell 1.1% to $113.22, US crude dropped 1.9%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%.• Hormuz/Shipping: South Korea said HMM Namu had an explosion and fire near the UAE with no casualties; the cause is unconfirmed, though Trump said Iran hit the ship and urged Seoul to join the mission.• Hormuz/Traffic: Bloomberg said hundreds of ships clustered near Dubai as daily Hormuz traffic was near zero, versus about 135 passages before the war.• Chips: Apple has held preliminary talks with Intel and Samsung on US processor production, with no orders placed, potentially reducing reliance on TSMC.• Macro/FX: Australia raised rates to 4.35%, while the rupiah and rupee hit record lows.