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Oil jumps after US strikes Iran again
Geopolitics dominated from Asia through after-hours, turning the session into an oil-inflation tape that pressured rates, cyclicals and fuel-sensitive equities. The close was less disorderly than the morning risk-off move, but the second day of US strikes kept the overnight setup defensive.• Iran/Oil: Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over and threatened further strikes, a Kharg Island takeover and an Iran-only blockade. Brent settled 5.2% higher at $78.02, then rose 6.6% after hours after Centcom confirmed new strikes aimed at Hormuz threats.• Rates/Fed: Higher oil pulled forward hike pricing across the Fed, BOE and ECB. Fed minutes added pressure by showing several officials saw hike risks and almost no appetite for cuts, with the 10-year yield near 4.57%.• Equities/Rotation: The S&P 500 opened lower and closed down 0.3%, while Nasdaq recovered. Energy and defense held a bid, but airlines sold off as fuel risk returned, with American down 6%.• Tech/Credit: Amazon’s $25B bond sale drew soft demand, feeding concern about AI-linked issuance. Meta still advanced its AI buildout with a planned $10B Alberta data center.• Asia/Deals: Chinese tech rallied sharply, Korean chip beta sold off, and SK Hynix’s planned US ADR offering was reportedly heavily oversubscribed.
Oil rises after US launches second day of Iran strikes
After-hours risk stayed centered on oil and rates after Centcom confirmed another round of Iran strikes, while fresh credit and issuance items added single-name pressure.• Iran/Oil: Centcom said US forces struck Iran for a second straight day to reduce threats to Hormuz navigation; Brent rose 6.6% after hours to $79.06, and WTI traded above $75 in Asia.• Iran/Talks: Trump warned attacks would “get much worse” if Iran hit more ships, then said Iran had called seeking a deal, while questioning whether Tehran would honor one.• Semis/IPO: Bloomberg said SK Hynix’s planned US ADR offering was more than seven times oversubscribed and could raise about $24.5B, with when-issued Nasdaq trading due Friday.• Credit/Autos: S&P cut Harley-Davidson to junk, citing margin pressure from lower-cost motorcycles and restructuring.• Media/M&A: WSJ highlighted Paramount-Warner leverage near $80B, or about 6.5x Ebitda; MoffettNathanson called it “staggering.”
Fed minutes flag rate-hike risks while oil settles sharply higher
Hawkish Fed minutes reinforced the oil-inflation trade, though Nasdaq recovered by the close. Company news skewed mixed, with AI infrastructure spending still expanding and consumer/airline data softer.• Fed/Rates: Minutes showed a few officials saw a June hike case and nine of 18 projected at least one 2026 increase; only one saw cuts. The Fed held at 3.5%-3.75% and removed easing-bias language.• Markets/Oil: Brent settled 5.2% higher at $78.02 after reaching $80.59; WTI settled up 4.4%. The Dow fell 577 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.3%, and Nasdaq finished slightly positive.• Airlines/Consumers: American fell 6%, JetBlue and United lost at least 4%, and Delta dropped more than 3% as fuel risk returned. May consumer credit unexpectedly fell $182M versus forecasts for a $17.5B increase.• AI/Consumer: Meta plans a roughly $10B, one-gigawatt Alberta data center; Levi raised its full-year revenue-growth outlook to 7%-7.5% and lifted its dividend.
Oil spikes after Trump threatens new Iran strikes and Kharg takeover
Geopolitical risk intensified again, with oil and rates pressure feeding into a weaker U.S. equity open while defense and credit supply stories added single-name angles.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the U.S. would probably hit Iran “hard” again tonight, may take over Kharg Island and may reinstate an Iran-only blockade. Brent briefly rose almost 7% and later traded near $79.50; the S&P 500 opened down 0.6%.• Ukraine/Defense: Trump said the U.S. will license Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors, and WSJ said he supports Ukrainian long-range strikes inside Russia.• Fuel/Russia: Russia banned diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries; Bloomberg said Russia supplied about 11% of global diesel last year.• Credit/Big Tech: Amazon’s $25B bond sale drew orders of only 1.6 times the deal, adding concern over $182B of 2026 AI-linked tech issuance.
Rate-hike bets rise after oil surge
Oil-linked inflation risk deepened across rates, while company news added deal-driven moves in semis, homebuilders and European banks.• Rates/Oil: Derivatives now fully price a BOE hike by year-end, with Fed and ECB hikes pulled forward to October and September; WSJ said the implied chance of a Fed hike this month rose to about 36% from 27%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Kpler said Hormuz traffic held near last week’s pace, with 36 crossings Monday and 41 Tuesday, even as the IMO urged operators to avoid the strait and India sought safe passage for at least nine loaded tankers.• Semis/Apple: Apple committed more than $30B over five years to buy U.S.-made Broadcom chips, including support for a $1.5B Fort Collins facility upgrade.• Homebuilders: Dream Finders raised its Beazer bid to $32 a share, or about $875M; Beazer rose 12% premarket.• Spain/Banks: Santander and BBVA fell after Trump threatened to cut trade with Spain.
Oil rallies after Trump says Iran ceasefire is over
Geopolitical risk re-accelerated after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over, with a clear cross-asset inflation impulse and several company-specific regulatory and M&A developments.• Iran/Markets: Brent rose 5.3% to about $78, S&P 500 futures fell 0.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose near 4.57% after Trump said the Iran truce was over; he still said negotiators could keep talking.• Rates/FX: German 10-year yields moved above 3% and euro hedges turned more bearish as higher oil revived inflation concerns.• Apple/EU: Apple lost its EU General Court challenge to Digital Markets Act gatekeeper rules for the App Store and iOS; the ruling can be appealed.• Banks/M&A: UniCredit said Commerzbank tenders lifted its potential holding to 47.6%, short of control but enough to increase pressure on Germany’s second-largest bank.• Health insurers: KFF said ACA insurers seek a median 14% premium increase for 2027.
Oil stays bid after Iran targets US sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Geopolitical risk stayed the main cross-asset driver, but Asia also delivered a sharp rotation into Chinese tech and away from Korean chip beta.• Gulf/Iran: Iran said it targeted 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and shot down an MQ-9; Kuwait said air defenses were intercepting hostile missiles and drones. Tehran still has not claimed Tuesday’s ship attacks.• Energy/Shipping: A few tankers used the Oman-side Hormuz route, while LNG traffic largely stopped. Bloomberg calculated 63M barrels of Iranian oil are at sea or idling after the U.S. revoked the waiver.• China Tech: Hang Seng China Enterprises rose as much as 3.4%, its biggest move since May 2025; Alibaba jumped more than 8% and Tencent more than 3%.• Semis/Asia: Korea’s Kospi fell as much as 5.7%, taking its drop from last month’s high to about 20%, with Samsung down 6.9% and SK Hynix down 5%.• Macro/Materials: RBNZ raised rates 25 bp to 2.5%; the U.S. DLA sought up to $300M of lithium carbonate.
Oil jumps after US strikes Iran
Geopolitics and AI de-risking defined the day: an overnight Hormuz shipping scare kept crude bid, Asia’s chip profit-taking rolled into a Nasdaq-led US selloff, and the close brought a sharper energy shock after Washington revoked Iran’s oil waiver and later announced strikes on Iranian targets. Higher oil, a large Amazon bond sale and firmer inflation expectations pushed rates wider and reinforced the rotation out of crowded AI exposure.• Energy/Iran: Reports that missiles hit commercial vessels near Hormuz lifted crude early, then Treasury revoked the waiver allowing new Iranian oil transactions. CENTCOM later said U.S. forces began strikes on Iranian targets, leaving Brent up more than 6% around $76.50.• Semis/AI: Samsung’s post-guidance slump spread into U.S. AI names, while a Reuters report that DeepSeek is developing an inference chip added pressure. Nvidia, Micron, Intel, AMD and equipment names sold off sharply as investors cut crowded AI exposure.• Rates/Credit: Treasury yields rose 3-4 bp, with the 10-year near 4.52%, after one-year inflation expectations rose and Amazon upsized its bond sale to at least $25B. Hyperscaler credit widened, Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 1996 high, and the dollar gained.• Corporate Movers: Exxon flagged a $3.7B oil-price boost to profit, Shell guided to stronger gas trading, Rivian tumbled on a planned share sale, and Fiserv reversed after its president resigned.
Oil jumps after US launches new strikes against Iran
Risk skewed more defensive after Washington moved from sanctions pressure to direct strikes on Iran, lifting oil and the dollar while adding pressure to global yields.• Energy/Iran: CENTCOM said U.S. forces began “powerful strikes” on Iranian targets after attacks on three commercial vessels near Hormuz; Tehran has not claimed responsibility. Brent traded around $76.50, up more than 6%.• Rates/FX: Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 2.855%, the highest intraday level since 1996, while Asian currencies weakened as the dollar gained safe-haven support.• Energy Majors: Exxon said the oil rally added $3.7B to second-quarter profit, with another $3.3B from refining and chemicals partly offset by $1.2B of Middle East disruption losses.• Payments: Fiserv President Dhivya Suryadevara resigned weeks after her promotion, extending management turmoil.• Beauty: Estée Lauder raised expected restructuring charges to as much as $1.75B from about $1.55B.
Oil jumps after US revokes Iran oil waiver
Energy risk re-priced late after Washington withdrew Iran’s oil reprieve, while tech weakness broadened into credit and several idiosyncratic equities moved on financing and product news.• Energy/Iran: Treasury revoked the waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, effective July 7 for new transactions with a July 17 grace period. WTI rose as much as 5% above $72 and Brent traded around $76.• Tech/Credit: Amazon’s at least $25B bond sale pressured existing hyperscaler debt; dealer runs showed Amazon notes 7-10 bp wider and SpaceX 9-13 bp wider.• Autos: Rivian fell more than 18% after announcing a planned 75M-share sale.• AI/Platforms: Meta launched Muse Image in Meta AI, Instagram and WhatsApp, with advertiser tools planned.• Casinos/M&A: Jefferies is sounding out about $5B of debt for Carl Icahn’s possible $33-a-share Caesars bid; no final decision was reported.
Nasdaq slides as Treasury yields rise
Risk stayed pressured by confirmed U.S. tech losses and higher yields, while defense and payments generated discrete single-name movers.• Rates/Credit: Treasuries fell, with yields up 3-4 bp and the 10-year near 4.52%, as Amazon’s bond sale was upsized to at least $25B and oil rebounded.• Semis/Tech: The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%; Intel and Western Digital dropped 11%, Applied Materials, Marvell and Micron about 9%-10%, and AMD 9%.• Macro/Inflation: NY Fed survey data showed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, while three-year expectations hit 3.3%, the highest since June 2022.• Defense/Turkey: Trump said the U.S. will consider F-35 sales to Turkey and remove CAATSA sanctions; NATO also outlined roughly $50B of defense deals.• Payments: Fiserv rose 6.1% to $54.94 after the reported bank interest in its debit network.
Nasdaq futures fall after Reuters says DeepSeek is developing an AI chip
Tech remained the main pressure point, with AI-capex financing and fresh Gulf shipping risk keeping rotation uneven before the open.• Semis/AI: Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.1%; Nvidia slipped 2.2% after Reuters reported DeepSeek is developing an inference chip, while Micron fell about 6% and Intel 4%.• Tech Volatility: The Cboe NDX Volatility Index near 27 reached its highest level versus the VIX since 2002; RBC said clients are reducing AI exposure and rotating into healthcare and staples.• Credit/AI Capex: Amazon is selling up to eight bond tranches, including 40-year debt at about 145 basis points over Treasuries, to fund AI infrastructure.• Energy/Shipping: A Saudi-flagged crude tanker was damaged in Hormuz; separately, Iraq restored three southern fields to full capacity.• Deals/Industrials: Getty terminated the Shutterstock merger after the UK demanded an editorial-business sale; Boeing may win about 10 787s from Philippine Airlines.
Tech futures fall after Samsung’s profit-taking spreads
Risk tone weakened in early Europe: AI-linked futures extended Asia’s chip selloff, while energy risk stayed bid after more detail on Gulf shipping disruptions.• Semis: U.S. tech futures fell and AI-chain stocks weakened as Samsung slid despite a 19-fold profit jump, reinforcing concern that the memory trade is crowded.• Energy/Shipping: UKMTO said QatarEnergy’s Al Rekayyat was hit by an unknown projectile near Hormuz; sources said a second vessel may have been hit, and Pakistan said another Qatari LNG tanker turned back.• Energy Majors: Shell guided to significantly higher gas-trading results and oil trading in line with a strong first quarter, but flagged lower integrated-gas production from lost Qatari volumes.• Macro/Commodities: Germany’s May industrial output rose 0.9% versus a small expected decline, while China made its biggest gold purchase since October 2023.
Oil rises after Iran missiles hit ships near Hormuz
Geopolitical risk returned while Asia’s AI trade finally showed fatigue; rates desks also got firmer Japan wage evidence.• Energy/Shipping: A US official said Iran’s IRGC fired missiles at two commercial ships near Hormuz. Qatar-linked LNG carrier Al Rekayyat was reported hit with no casualties; European gas rose as much as 4.1%, while Brent and WTI gained about 0.7%.• AI Semis: Asian chip stocks sold off despite Samsung’s record-profit guidance; Samsung fell 8.4%, SK Hynix 7.5% and South Korea’s benchmark lost 5.9% as investors took profits.• Nvidia/China: A Bloomberg Intelligence survey found Chinese firms plan to lift domestic AI-accelerator spending to 46% of budgets from 30%, implying lower Nvidia share as H20 access tightens.• Japan/Rates: Japan’s nominal wages rose 3.2% in May, with markets pricing an 82% chance of a BOJ hike by December.
Oil rebounds after Iranian missiles hit LNG tanker near Hormuz
Risk appetite initially leaned pro-growth as services data held near expectations and AI infrastructure headlines supported the Nasdaq, but the day’s dominant swing came in energy: a record Saudi price cut first eased crude, then a reported missile strike near Hormuz restored geopolitical risk after hours.• Energy/Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia cut August Arab Light pricing to Asia by $11 a barrel, pressuring Brent early, before reports that Iranian missiles hit commercial vessels near Hormuz lifted Brent back near $72.25 and pushed European gas higher.• AI/Semis: Nvidia-linked sentiment stayed mixed after SemiAnalysis reported a more-than-12-month Kyber rack delay and Chinese firms planned more local accelerator spending, while Broadcom rallied on an extended Apple supply deal and Samsung’s profit beat later faded into a sell-the-news trade.• Macro/Markets: ISM services slipped to 54, with a stronger employment gauge and cooler prices; the Nasdaq rose about 1% as investors rotated toward tech despite softer energy and transport pricing.• Deals/Capital: TeraWulf jumped on a 20-year Anthropic AI-campus lease, Vertex agreed to buy Crinetics for $10B, Rivian fell after launching a 75M-share sale, and Solstice agreed to buy Element Solutions.
Samsung profit beats estimates as Vertex buys Crinetics
After-hours news leaned constructive for AI memory but mixed for single-name risk, with biotech M&A offset by EV dilution and fresh payment-deal speculation.• AI Memory: Samsung preliminarily posted 89.4 trillion won in quarterly operating profit, above the 84.2 trillion won consensus, on AI data-center demand; revenue of 171 trillion won also beat.• Biotech M&A: Vertex agreed to buy Crinetics for $10B cash, or $85 a share, a 102% premium; CRNX more than doubled after hours, while Vertex takes on endocrinology pipeline risk.• EVs: Rivian launched a 75M-share sale to fund equity contributions tied to a DOE loan; the deal could raise about $1.5B, and RIVN fell 7.4% after hours.• Payments/Retail: JPMorgan, BofA, Wells and PNC have held preliminary talks about buying Fiserv’s debit networks; Walmart cut prices on thousands of items.
Nasdaq rises as SK Hynix launches $28 billion IPO
Tech strength held despite fresh corporate cuts, while easing shipping and oil-supply pressure weighed on transport and energy-linked trades.• Macro/Markets: ISM services slipped to 54 in June, near expectations, while the employment gauge posted its biggest jump since 2024 and prices eased to 67.7; the Nasdaq was up about 1%.• Semis/IPO: SK Hynix launched its Nasdaq IPO to raise $28B, with Situational Awareness, Baillie Gifford and Coatue indicating demand for up to $7B of ADSs.• Shipping: Maersk will send its first cargo through Suez and the Red Sea since the Iran war began; Maersk fell nearly 7% and Hapag-Lloyd 4% on added-capacity concerns.• Software/Gaming: Microsoft’s Xbox plans 3,200 job cuts, with another 3,200 layoffs elsewhere, and will sell or review five studios.• Defense: Lockheed agreed to buy Ultra Maritime from Advent for $3.45B.
Oil falls after Saudis make record crude-price cut
Risk appetite improved around AI infrastructure, but oil and shipping-rate pressure pointed to easing supply constraints.• Oil: Saudi Arabia cut August Arab Light pricing to Asia by $11 a barrel, the biggest reduction in at least 26 years; Brent traded near $72 as OPEC+ supply and Hormuz normalization weighed.• AI Infrastructure: TeraWulf signed a 20-year Anthropic lease for a Kentucky AI campus that could generate $19B in revenue and add 400 MW by 2028; shares rose 17% premarket.• Semis: Broadcom extended its Apple supply agreement through 2031, sending AVGO about 5% higher premarket.• M&A/Chemicals: Honeywell spinoff Solstice agreed to buy Element Solutions in a $14.5B cash-and-stock deal at about a 15% premium.• Crypto: Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216M to fund preferred dividends; shares fell about 2%-3% premarket.
Nvidia suppliers slide after SemiAnalysis reports Kyber server delay
AI hardware risk dominated early trading, while deal flow stayed active and European data improved; energy infrastructure risk also resurfaced.• AI Hardware: SemiAnalysis said Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 rack system is delayed more than 12 months to 2028 because of PCB setbacks; Nvidia did not comment, and Asian PCB suppliers slid.• Chips/Compliance: Singapore filed additional money-laundering charges in an AI server fraud case tied to possible Nvidia-chip diversion; prosecutors allege end-user misrepresentations to Dell, Super Micro and Asustek, none of which are accused.• M&A: Comcast’s Sky agreed to buy ITV’s media arm for up to £1.6B, and Novartis agreed to buy Myricx for up to $1.5B; Solstice-Element merger talks were reported but unconfirmed.• Macro/Energy: German factory orders rose 1.9% in May, above estimates, while Ukrainian drones fell near Russia’s Ust-Luga and Vysotsk ports, keeping Baltic export risk in view.