Apr 29, 2026

Apple flags chip constraints as South Korea exports surge on AI demand

After-hours focus stayed on tech supply chains and AI demand, with Asia data reinforcing the chip cycle while EV and FX headlines showed uneven risk appetite.• Apple/Semis: Tim Cook said June-quarter constraints are mainly advanced-node processor capacity, not memory, and warned memory costs will rise significantly in Q3 and keep increasing; iPhone sales rose 21.7% to nearly $57 billion, and shares were up about 4% late.• Asia Chips: South Korea said April exports rose 48% year over year, with semiconductor shipments up 173% to $31.9 billion and a $23.8 billion surplus; Toto rose as much as 18% in Tokyo on plans to expand chip-parts investment.• AI Demand: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar rebutted reports of missed targets, citing a “vertical wall of demand,” Codex at 4 million weekly users versus 3 million two weeks earlier, and compute shortages.• Autos/EVs: Nissan canceled plans to build two EV SUVs in Mississippi, citing weak US demand.• FX/Gold: Japan’s top FX official declined to confirm intervention; people familiar said Tokyo bought yen, and gold held near $4,630 an ounce.

Apple gains after June-quarter forecast tops expectations

After-hours news turned more constructive for megacap tech, while policy and credit headlines added cross-currents for defense and rates.• Apple: Apple reported revenue of $111.18 billion and EPS of $2.01, both above estimates, then guided June-quarter revenue up 14%-17% with 47.5%-48.5% gross margin; shares reversed losses to rise more than 3%.• Internet/Gaming: Reddit rose about 7% late after revenue jumped 69% and guidance topped estimates; Roblox fell about 16% after daily active users missed forecasts and bookings came in light.• Defense/Policy: Trump said he was open to reducing US troops in Spain and Italy; Republican senators Collins and Murkowski pushed back on the administration’s Iran war authority.• Credit/Rates: Fitch warned the US debt burden is far above AA peers, while Citi cautioned that private-credit “tourists” could become forced sellers in a downturn.

Iran hardens Hormuz stance as House ends DHS shutdown

Geopolitical risk stayed the main macro overhang, while Washington resolved one shutdown risk and AI funding scrutiny widened beyond megacap earnings.• Gulf/Oil: Iran’s supreme leader said the US has no future role in the Persian Gulf and Iran plans to manage Hormuz while retaining nuclear capabilities; a Pakistani diesel tanker attempted a rare exit via a Tehran-approved route.• Washington/Budget: The House passed DHS funding by voice vote, ending a 76-day shutdown of most of the department; the White House is expected to sign, reducing near-term airport-paycheck risk.• Tech/AI: Microsoft fell about 5% after projecting 2026 capex of $190 billion versus $155 billion expected; KKR has secured more than $10 billion for an AI infrastructure platform led by former AWS CEO Adam Selipsky.• Defense/Legal: Hegseth said the War Powers 60-day clock pauses in a ceasefire; the Pentagon comptroller said the $25 billion war cost could shift with Middle East posture.

PCE hits 3.5% as ECB officials eye June hike

Inflation and energy risk reasserted themselves, though single-name moves were driven by activist and consumer-staples updates.• US Macro: Headline PCE rose 0.7% in March and 3.5% year over year, the highest since May 2023; core PCE was 3.2%, and gasoline/energy-goods spending jumped 20% month over month.• ECB/Rates: Lagarde said a hike was debated “in depth”; Bloomberg later reported officials likely raise rates in June unless energy prices ease or the Iran war improves.• Oil/Transport: Vessel data showed only a few Iran-linked Hormuz transits, while Chicago diesel hit a record and Midwest jet fuel jumped.• Deals/Activism: Driven Brands rose after ADW offered $18 a share, about 40% above Wednesday’s close; Jana urged Markel to sell Ventures and buy back $2 billion.• Staples: Altria gained nearly 7% on better cigarette sales; Molson Coors warned glass shortages could cut second-quarter volume 6%-9%, though reports conflicted on its stock move.

Jobless claims hit 1969 low as ECB holds rates

US data reinforced resilience while central banks stayed cautious on energy-driven inflation; the oil retreat helped futures despite still-hawkish policy risk.• US Macro: First-quarter GDP rose 2% annualized, below expectations but faster than late 2025; jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest since 1969.• Rates/Oil: Brent fell 3.5% to $114 after touching $126, lifting Treasuries; the two-year yield dropped five basis points to 3.90%.• Central Banks: The ECB held its deposit rate at 2% and warned inflation and growth risks had intensified; the BOE held at 3.75%, with gilts rallying as Bailey called it an “active hold.”• Earnings: Lilly raised 2026 sales guidance to as much as $85 billion, Caterpillar beat on AI power demand, and Mastercard profit topped estimates on spending growth.

Oil hits wartime high after Trump backs blockade

Energy inflation pressure intensified, while European data reinforced stagflation risks and AI demand gave Taiwan a notable macro offset.• Oil/Consumers: Brent jumped as much as 7% above $126 before easing to $122; California regular gasoline rose to $6.01 a gallon, the first state average above $6 since 2023.• Geopolitics/Energy: Trump told Axios the naval blockade is “choking” Iran and more effective than bombing; China separately allowed 500,000 tons of one-off fuel exports to Asian buyers.• Europe/Macro: Eurozone inflation rose to 3.0% versus 2.9% expected, while first-quarter GDP slowed to 0.1%; swaps priced three ECB and BOE hikes by year-end.• FX/Japan: Japan’s finance minister said the time for “bold steps” is nearing after the yen weakened beyond 160 per dollar.• AI/Taiwan: Taiwan GDP grew 13.7%, beating estimates on AI hardware demand.

Asian currencies hit records after oil tops $120

Risk pressure broadened in Asia as the oil shock fed FX, rates and food-cost channels, while AI news cut both ways for chip suppliers and compute lessors.• Oil/FX: Brent moved above $120 after Axios reported Trump would be briefed on new military options for Iran; the rupee, rupiah and peso traded near or at record lows, and the yen weakened past 160.• AI/Chips: Google and Amazon plan to sell servers with in-house AI chips to outside customers, directly challenging Nvidia’s hardware model; OpenAI said it secured 10GW of US AI capacity years early.• Real Estate: AvalonBay and Equity Residential have held exploratory merger talks, according to people familiar with the matter; each apartment REIT is valued near $25 billion.• Deals/Industrials: Lazard agreed to buy Campbell Lutyens for $575 million in stock, while US Steel plans a $1.9 billion Arkansas feedstock facility.

Amazon rises on AI backlog as Trump reviews Germany troop levels

After-hours tech reactions diverged as investors rewarded AI demand at Amazon and Qualcomm but kept pressure on AI capex, while Washington escalated Fed and Iran-linked policy risks.• Amazon/AI: Amazon reversed to about 2.5% higher after Andy Jassy said AI revenue is tracking toward $15 billion this year; AWS grew 28% to $37.6 billion and backlog exceeds $460 billion including recent Anthropic capacity.• Chips/AI: Qualcomm rebounded 9% after CEO Cristiano Amon said it will ship custom chips to an unnamed AI hyperscaler this year, offsetting the earlier weak outlook.• Fed/Politics: Trump and Bessent publicly attacked Powell’s plan to remain a governor; Bessent called it a violation of Fed norms.• Geopolitics/Defense: CENTCOM requested the first deployment of the Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic missile for possible Iran use; Trump said the US is reviewing 35,000 troops in Germany.

Powell stays on Fed board as Microsoft and Alphabet beat estimates

Late news shifted from the Fed decision to Powell’s transition and the first wave of megacap earnings, with rates staying under pressure and AI capex scrutiny still high.• Fed/Rates: Powell said he will remain a Fed governor after May 15, citing legal attacks on the Fed, and said guidance could move neutral as soon as June; CME odds put a 2026 hike at 11% versus a 2% cut chance.• Tech Earnings: Microsoft beat with $82.9 billion of revenue and 39% Azure growth, while Alphabet beat on $94.7 billion ex-TAC revenue; both rose after hours.• AI Spending: Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125 billion-$145 billion from $115 billion-$135 billion, sending shares about 7% lower despite a revenue beat.• Chips/Autos: Qualcomm fell after a below-consensus outlook tied to memory shortages; Ford raised 2026 adjusted Ebit guidance to $8.5 billion-$10.5 billion.

Oil nears $120 after Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer

Oil and rates remained the main cross-asset pressure points, with the blockade hardening and fuel inflation feeding through before the Fed decision.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose more than 7% to above $119.50, its highest since 2022, after Trump told Axios he rejected Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz and would keep the blockade until a nuclear deal.• Rates/Macro: Treasury yields rose 4-6 bp; the 10-year reached 4.412% and the 30-year neared 5% as traders largely dropped 2026 cut bets.• Defense/Budget: The Pentagon put the Iran war cost at $25 billion for the first time, while Hegseth defended a $1.45 trillion 2027 budget request and sought more spending through reconciliation.• Deals/Travel: Brown-Forman fell as much as 11% after ending Pernod Ricard deal talks; Uber added Expedia hotel inventory and future Vrbo rentals to its app.

Warsh clears Senate panel as Brent climbs near $115

Rates, macro and oil risk led, while earnings drove sharp single-name moves and biotech M&A added support.• Rates/Fed: Kevin Warsh won Senate Banking Committee backing in a 13-11 party-line vote, setting up a full Senate vote before Powell’s May 15 chair-term expiry.• Macro/Housing: Housing starts rose 10.8% in March to a 1.5 million annual pace, and core capital-goods orders climbed 3.3%, the most since 2020.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent was quoted around $115, while the IAEA said Iran could access near weapons-grade uranium buried at bombed sites; European jet fuel topped $200 a barrel.• Earnings: Robinhood fell nearly 12% after an EPS miss and a 47% drop in crypto-trading revenue; GE HealthCare dropped after cutting guidance.• M&A/Biotech: KalVista agreed to be bought by Chiesi for $27 a share cash, a roughly 40% premium.

Fed holds with four dissents as Brent rises on extended-blockade report

Policy and energy risks dominated, with the Fed split and blockade expectations keeping inflation pressure in focus; single-name news was mixed.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but NYT reported four dissents, the most since 1992: Miran wanted a cut, while Hammack, Logan and Kashkari wanted a less dovish signal.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 3% above $107 after WSJ reported Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.• Shipping/Oil: Japan confirmed a Japan-linked vessel transited Hormuz, a limited easing signal that sits against reports of a longer US blockade.• Tech/Regulation: The EU issued preliminary findings that Meta failed to keep under-13 users off Facebook and Instagram.• Health Care: Biogen revenue beat on Leqembi growth, while Humana beat EPS and affirmed full-year guidance.

Kone buys TK Elevator as China halts new robotaxi permits

Overnight news added deal activity and sharper China regulatory risk, while European bank earnings were broadly supportive and global auto results stayed weak.• M&A/Industrials: Finland’s Kone agreed to buy TK Elevator for €29.4 billion, including debt, in a cash-and-stock deal expected to close no earlier than 2Q27 pending regulatory approvals.• China/Autonomy: China suspended new level-four autonomous-vehicle permits after a Baidu Apollo Go outage in Wuhan stranded passengers; Baidu’s Wuhan operations were suspended during the probe, while Pony AI and WeRide said services continue normally.• Banks/Earnings: UBS beat with $3.04 billion of profit and signaled buybacks above its $3 billion target; Deutsche Bank and Santander also topped estimates.• Autos/Earnings: Mercedes, Geely and Volvo reported profit pressure from weak China demand and tougher EV competition; Mercedes plans to cut global capacity by more than 10%.

Gulf states reject Iran’s Hormuz control as Booking slides on Middle East guidance

Geopolitical risk stayed bid into the evening, while after-hours earnings created sharp single-name moves and travel exposed direct demand damage from the Middle East conflict.• Gulf/Oil: The GCC rejected Iran’s claimed control of Hormuz and opposed transit fees, saying aggression against any member would be treated as aggression against all.• Rates/Oil: Treasury options traders added hedges for long yields above 5%; the 30-year yield reached 4.97% as oil-driven inflation fears built before the Fed.• Travel/Earnings: Booking fell as much as 10% late after guiding second-quarter revenue growth to 4%-6%, far below the 11% consensus, citing Middle East disruptions.• Consumer/Earnings: Starbucks beat with 6.2% comparable-sales growth and 50c adjusted EPS; Visa beat at $3.31 EPS with revenue up 17%.• Chips/Telecom: NXP jumped more than 10% after second-quarter revenue guidance topped estimates; T-Mobile raised full-year account-addition guidance.

Amazon adds OpenAI models as Treasury warns Chinese refiners

AI platform competition broadened while energy-security pressure stayed acute, with company-specific moves adding sharper equity dispersion into the close.• AI/Cloud: Amazon said AWS will offer OpenAI models after Microsoft gave up exclusive resale rights; AWS will preview some models Tuesday, with the most powerful GPT models due in coming weeks.• Energy/Sanctions: Treasury warned financial institutions they face secondary-sanctions risk for supporting Chinese independent refiners that buy Iranian oil, mainly in Shandong province.• Energy/Shipping: U.S. Marines stopped, searched and released the M/V Blue Star III in the Arabian Sea; Centcom said U.S. forces have redirected 39 ships since the blockade began.• Biotech: Erasca fell as much as 55% after disclosing a patient death following severe side effects in an early-stage cancer-drug trial.• Defense/AI: Google allowed Pentagon use of its AI for classified work, but separately withdrew from a drone-swarm contest after an ethics review.

Consumer confidence rises as Iran asserts Hormuz authority

Macro data offered some support, but Gulf legal escalation, AI-capex pressure and private-credit cracks kept risk appetite uneven.• Macro/Consumers: Conference Board confidence rose to 92.8 in April from 92.2, beating the 89 consensus as labor-market expectations improved.• Energy/Geopolitics: Iran’s UN mission said Tehran is not bound by the Law of the Sea treaty and has authority over Hormuz; Trump claimed Iran said it is in a “State of Collapse.”• Fuel/Oil: AAA said US regular gasoline rose 6 cents to $4.18 a gallon, a wartime high; Brent was little changed near $104 after UAE-exit analysis.• AI/Cloud: OpenAI called growth concerns “prime clickbait,” but Oracle fell nearly 4% and CoreWeave more than 5%; Amazon launched AI office tools.• Credit: Ares Capital EPS missed by 1c, non-payment risk rose to 3.1%, and BofA forecast record May IG issuance near $190 billion.

UAE leaves OPEC as Nasdaq futures fall on OpenAI concerns

Oil news turned two-sided: physical Hormuz stress kept prompt crude bid, but the UAE’s exit from OPEC added a medium-term supply shock. AI-linked risk spread from equities into credit.• Oil/OPEC: The UAE said it will leave OPEC on May 1 and gradually raise production, weakening the cartel’s cohesion.• Energy/Shipping: Lloyd’s said Hormuz transits fell to 35 last week from 78; front-month Brent traded above $112, while a Japanese tanker crossed with Iranian permission.• AI/Credit: Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1%; CoreWeave and Oracle dropped more than 5%, and CoreWeave’s 2031 bond hit a record low at 98.63.• Earnings/Consumer: GM raised its EBIT outlook by $500 million, Coca-Cola beat on 10% organic growth, while Kimberly-Clark flagged a $150 million-$170 million oil-cost risk.

Oil tops $110 after Trump says Iran response will come soon

Energy risk reasserted itself in early trading, while AI infrastructure names saw confirmed premarket pressure and European macro data reinforced inflation and credit concerns.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 2.3% above $110 after the White House said Trump would address Iran’s Hormuz proposal “very soon.”• Shipping/Energy: Satellite and vessel data showed six to eight Iranian supertankers idling near Chabahar, while Adnoc offered some May cargoes via Fujairah and the Japan-linked Idemitsu Maru attempted a Hormuz exit with 2 million barrels.• AI/Software: OpenAI-linked stocks extended declines after the WSJ report on missed targets; CoreWeave, Oracle and AMD fell about 3% premarket, while SoftBank dropped as much as 11% in Tokyo.• Energy/Earnings: BP adjusted net income more than doubled to $3.2 billion, beating the $2.67 billion consensus, helped by “exceptional” oil trading.• Europe/Macro: ECB one-year consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.0% from 2.5%, and corporate credit standards tightened the most since 2023.

Yen gains after BOJ split vote signals higher rates

Overnight flow added a hawkish Japan rate signal, tentative evidence of limited Gulf energy movement and fresh AI-spending scrutiny, leaving the macro tone less one-way than Monday’s oil-led inflation trade.• Japan/Rates: The BOJ held at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote, raised its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% and cut growth to 0.5%; the yen firmed near 159 per dollar as June hike odds rose to 74%.• Energy/Shipping: Ship-tracking data showed the Mubaraz LNG tanker had exited the Gulf, the first apparent LNG cargo through Hormuz since the war began; China’s state refiners sought May permits to resume gasoline and diesel exports.• AI/Chips: WSJ reported OpenAI missed 2026 monthly sales goals and its 1 billion weekly-user target; Advantest fell as much as 6.9% after guidance missed, while Japan’s Qatar helium imports dropped 81% in March.• Software/Activism: Dynatrace rose more than 6% after WSJ reported Starboard became a top-five holder and pressed for AI execution.