May 21, 2026

S&P 500 clinches eighth weekly gain as Uber studies Delivery Hero takeover

Stocks finished stronger despite rates and geopolitical noise, while deal reports and executive moves kept single-name risk active.• Markets/Fed: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and clinched an eighth straight weekly gain; the Dow set its ninth 2026 closing record. Trump told Warsh to be independent at swearing-in, then said rates should come down.• Energy/Iran: Brent closed up 0.9% at $103.54. Baker Hughes said US oil rigs rose by 10 to 425, the biggest weekly increase since April 2022, while Trump canceled weekend plans to remain in Washington amid Iran talks.• Deals: Bloomberg reported Uber is studying a full Delivery Hero takeover after building a 19.5% stake; Lantheus is weighing a roughly $7 billion sale after a Curium approach.• Retail: WSJ reported Sam’s Club COO Tom Ward and Walmart US store-operations head Cedric Clark are leaving after CEO John Furner’s February handoff.

Rate-hike bets rise after Waller warns cuts are no longer likely

Rates risk moved back to the center of the tape, even as AI and space enthusiasm kept equity indexes firm.• Rates/Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the next move is as likely to be a hike as a cut and urged dropping easing-bias language; swaps now fully price a 25 bp Fed hike by end-2026.• Macro/Consumer: University of Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 44.8 from 49.8, below all forecasts, while long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 was on pace for an eighth weekly gain; Brent traded near $104, the 10-year yield rose to 4.58%, and SoftBank’s two-day AI-driven gain reached 34%.• Space/Equities: SpaceX IPO excitement lifted AST SpaceMobile and Virgin Galactic more than 9%, with Rocket Lab up about 7%.• Retail/M&A: GameStop slipped about 1.7% after seeking authority to raise its share count while pursuing eBay.

Futu tumbles after China targets cross-border brokers

Premarket risk was mixed: China regulatory action hit online brokers, while deal flow and sticky inflation/rate risks dominated elsewhere.• China Brokers: CSRC plans to confiscate illegal gains and levy severe penalties on Futu, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge; FUTU fell 35% and TIGR as much as 47% premarket.• Utilities/Deals: NextEra proposed a $420 billion all-stock merger with Dominion at nearly $76 a share, a 23% premium, targeting AI-driven power demand; regulatory scrutiny is likely.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg economists lifted US inflation forecasts above 3% through year-end and split on a December Fed cut; Kevin Warsh is sworn in today as Fed chair.• Energy/Geopolitics: Rubio cited “slight progress” in mediated Iran talks but said a deal is uncertain; oil rose with Hormuz and enrichment disputes unresolved.

UK data weaken as CVC and GBL bid for Recordati

Overnight news leaned macro-negative in Europe and the UK, partly offset by signs Gulf oil cargoes are still moving and fresh corporate demand signals.• UK Macro: April borrowing hit £24.3 billion, above the £20.9 billion watchdog forecast, while retail sales fell 1.3% versus the 0.6% decline expected.• Energy/Shipping: Japan said a tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude could dock Monday, the first Persian Gulf oil shipment to transit Hormuz since the war began.• Deals/Healthcare: CVC and GBL offered €51.29 a share for Recordati, valuing the Italian drugmaker at more than $12 billion, with committed financing and a planned delisting.• AI/Consumer Tech: DeepSeek advanced a potential $10 billion round at a $45 billion valuation; Nintendo asked suppliers for about 20 million Switch 2 units, 20% above guidance.

Ross jumps as House pulls Iran war vote

After-hours news was more stock-specific than macro, with off-price retail strength, renewed oil uncertainty and fresh EV/legal risk standing out while AI-linked industrial demand remained firm.• Retail: Ross Stores rose as much as 9.6% after raising its full-year outlook; Q1 revenue was $6.01 billion, EPS was $2.02 and same-store sales rose a record 17%.• Energy/Policy: WTI rebounded toward $98 after three declines as Iranian comments on uranium and Hormuz tolls complicated optimism over US-Iran negotiations; House Republicans pulled an Iran war-powers vote after lacking votes to defeat it.• EVs: North Carolina sued VinFast to reclaim the Chatham County factory site, citing missed construction, job and July 2026 operating milestones tied to a $3 billion, 7,500-job pledge.• AI/Industrials: Kawasaki Heavy rallied up to 12% on a confirmed Nvidia, Microsoft and Fujitsu physical-AI robotics collaboration; Lenovo jumped 13% after AI products reached 38% of sales.

Dow hits record after oil falls on Iran peace hopes

Risk tone improved into the close on Iran-deal hopes, but Washington policy risk and stock-specific after-hours moves kept dispersion high.• Markets/Energy: The Dow closed at a record 50,286; Brent fell 2.3% to $102.58 after touching $108, and 10-year yields approached 4.55% as Treasuries erased losses.• AI/Regulation: Trump postponed an AI order that would have asked major model developers to preview systems to the government, saying he feared slowing the US against China.• Policy/Airlines: Senate Republicans delayed the $72 billion immigration bill until June amid a revolt over Trump’s $1.8 billion DOJ fund; DHS separately reiterated a threat to cut airport customs in sanctuary cities, though Transportation Secretary Duffy rejected rerouting flights.• Afterhours/Deals: Estée Lauder rose 11.5% postmarket after ending Puig merger talks; Workday rallied on a Q1 beat, and IMAX was reported to be exploring a sale.

US factory PMI jumps as Turkish stocks slide

Risk news turned more inflationary, with stronger US factory activity and higher mortgage rates offset by fresh emerging-market political stress and selective single-name gains.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US factory PMI rose to 55.3 in May, the fastest expansion in four years, but input costs hit the highest since June 2022 and composite employment contracted.• Turkey: Turkish stocks fell more than 6% after a court removed the main opposition party’s leader; state lenders sold about $6 billion to defend the lira, traders told Bloomberg.• Housing: Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.51% from 6.36%, the highest since August, pressuring builders into the spring selling season.• AI/Software: Anthropic is in early talks to rent Microsoft Maia AI chips, The Information reported; Microsoft rose about 2%.• Media: Spotify rose roughly 11% after setting 1 billion-subscriber and $100 billion revenue targets.

Quantum stocks jump as Brent tops $107

Premarket risk tone softened as oil and rates firmed, but stock-specific moves were led by government support for quantum computing, retail margin pressure and obesity-drug data.• Quantum: The US will award $2 billion to nine quantum-computing firms and take minority equity stakes; IBM is slated for $1 billion, with IBM up more than 7% premarket, GlobalFoundries up 13%, D-Wave up 16% and Rigetti up about 15%.• Energy/Rates: Brent rose above $107 and the 10-year Treasury yield moved back above 4.6% after Reuters reported Iran’s Supreme Leader opposed sending enriched uranium abroad.• Retail: Walmart’s US comps rose 4.1% and e-commerce grew 26%, but higher fuel costs cut operating-profit growth by 2.5 points and the company left full-year guidance unchanged.• Pharma: Lilly said retatrutide cut weight by 28.3% over 80 weeks in a late-stage obesity trial, with 11% high-dose discontinuations.

Euro-zone activity shrinks as AMD commits $10 billion to Taiwan

European PMIs added a stagflationary macro shock, while AI supply-chain news stayed active and travel demand showed clearer fuel-war pressure.• Europe/Macro: Euro-zone composite PMI fell to 47.5, the weakest in 2.5 years, with S&P warning inflation could approach 4%; French activity sank to 43.5, the worst since 2020.• UK/Macro: UK private-sector output contracted for the first time in more than a year, with PMI at 48.5; firms cut jobs for a 20th month.• AI/Chips: AMD pledged more than $10 billion for Taiwan partnerships and packaging capacity, while Taiwanese prosecutors sought to detain three people over alleged Nvidia server smuggling via Super Micro.• Airlines: EasyJet said summer bookings were 58% sold, down 2 points year over year, and raised minimum ticket prices to offset fuel costs.

Oil tightens while Samsung deal lifts Korean chips

Oil risk re-emerged in Asia, while chip supply concerns eased in Korea and several large financing and deal threads advanced.• Energy: Goldman said global oil stockpiles are falling at a record 8.7 million b/d in May, with Hormuz exports at 5% of normal under a double blockade; that is an analyst estimate, not official flow data.• Korea/Chips: Samsung reached a tentative union deal 90 minutes before a strike deadline, including a 6.2% average wage increase and profit-linked bonuses; Kospi jumped as much as 6.1%, Samsung nearly 7% and SK Hynix 8.1%.• India/FX: The RBI is weighing options including an out-of-cycle hike, NRI deposits and sovereign dollar bonds as the rupee nears 97 per dollar.• REITs: WSJ put the AvalonBay-Equity Residential deal at roughly $51 billion, with AVB holders to receive 2.793 EQR shares.• SpaceX: WSJ said the IPO could raise $80 billion or more, potentially topping Saudi Aramco.

Nvidia slips as SpaceX reveals IPO financials

After-hours news flow centered on AI and mega-cap capital markets, with Nvidia’s print drawing a muted-to-negative reaction and SpaceX’s public prospectus adding fresh valuation, governance and customer-deal details.• Nvidia: Shares fell about 1.4% after hours. Revenue was $81.6 billion, current-quarter sales guidance was $91 billion versus an $86 billion average estimate, and Nvidia added an $80 billion buyback, but some investors had looked for as much as $96 billion.• SpaceX IPO: The S-1 showed $18.7 billion of 2025 revenue, a $4.94 billion net loss, $20.7 billion of capex, about 85% Musk voting control and a planned Nasdaq listing under SPCX.• AI/Compute: Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX about $45 billion through May 2029 for compute, or $1.25 billion a month after ramp-up.• Real Estate: AvalonBay and Equity Residential are nearing a merger, Bloomberg reported; talks could still fall through.

Fed minutes flag rate-hike risk as OpenAI readies IPO filing

Risk assets held firm, but the afternoon added a hawkish Fed record, a major AI listing report and fresh geopolitical/legal headlines.• Macro/Rates: Fed minutes showed a majority saw policy firming as likely if inflation stays above 2%, and many wanted to remove the easing bias from the April statement.• AI/Capital Markets: OpenAI is preparing a confidential IPO filing within days or weeks, possibly Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising and a September listing targeted.• Energy/Geopolitics: U.S. crude settled down $5.89 at $98.26, extending its two-day drop to $10.40; U.S. Marines also boarded and released another Iran-flagged tanker.• Cuba/Policy: The Justice Department charged Raúl Castro with murder and conspiracy, but Trump said “there won’t be escalation” against Cuba.• Travel: Airbnb announced luggage storage, airport pickups, future rentals and boutique hotels to expand beyond stays.

Treasuries rally after Trump cites final stages of Iran talks

Rates and oil swung on a more constructive Iran signal, while company news split between AI-linked power demand, retail resilience and fresh software layoffs.• Geopolitics/Rates: Treasuries rallied, sending two- to 10-year yields down about 10 bp, after Trump said US-Iran talks were in the “final stages”; the dollar fell 0.3% and Brent was down more than 5%.• Energy: US crude inventories including the SPR fell a record 17.8 million barrels last week, with record exports eroding supply cushions and leaving stockpiles at the lowest in nearly a year.• Tech/Labor: Intuit fell as much as 5.9% after Reuters reported plans to cut about 3,000 jobs, or 17% of staff, before earnings.• Power/AI: Constellation and Vistra rose about 6% after PJM moved its data-center connection timeline up to September, a year earlier than planned.• Retail: Target reversed lower after executives cautioned on consumers, while TJX rose more than 5% after raising guidance.

Futures rise after tankers cross Hormuz

Risk tone improved as confirmed Hormuz transits pulled oil lower and eased bond pressure, while Iran/NATO headlines kept tail risk alive.• Energy/Markets: Brent fell more than 2% toward $108 after three tankers, two Chinese and one South Korean, crossed Hormuz overnight; guidance still warned of mines and analysts cautioned against calling it a reopening.• Geopolitics/Defense: Iran threatened retaliation beyond the Middle East if the US or Israel attack again; NATO’s Rutte confirmed informal talks on a possible Hormuz role.• Retail: Target rose premarket after 5.6% comps and a higher sales outlook; Lowe’s fell after 0.6% comps missed and guidance stayed unchanged.• Chips/China: Beijing banned Nvidia’s RTX 5090D V2 and set June 15 mining controls on unspecified strategic minerals.• EM/Rates: Indonesia unexpectedly hiked 50 bp to 5.25%, while India bill yields jumped as traders priced hikes.

UK inflation falls to 2.8% as Putin and Xi sign strategic pact

Global markets monitored a flurry of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments as Russia and China deepened strategic ties without finalizing a key pipeline, while cooling UK inflation and emerging shipping movements offered tentative relief.• Geopolitics/Energy: Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi signed a strategic pact in Beijing, though they notably omitted any progress on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.• Macro/Inflation: UK consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 2.8% in April, driven by domestic energy caps despite ongoing Middle East fuel shocks.• FX/Emerging Markets: India's rupee hit a record low of 96.9650, prompting central bank intervention and Citigroup predictions of imminent currency controls.• Energy/Shipping: Three East Asian supertankers attempted to exit the Strait of Hormuz, marking the largest potential corridor traffic since the war began.

Xi urges Middle East ceasefire while Alibaba unveils new AI chip

Global markets digested geopolitical maneuvering in Beijing alongside key technology and trade developments, as China and Russia deepened ties while seeking to manage relations with the West.• Geopolitics/Energy: Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where Xi urged a Middle East ceasefire to stabilize energy supplies amid rising Russian energy imports.• Tech/AI: Alibaba introduced its Zhenwu M890 AI chip to compete with Nvidia, while OpenAI committed $234 million to build its first offshore applied AI lab in Singapore.• Trade Policy: China sought to extend its trade truce with the US, while EU lawmakers reached a provisional agreement on a US trade pact to avert tariff threats.• Tech/Labor: Samsung Electronics faces potential chip production disruptions after labor negotiations failed, prompting a union strike scheduled for Thursday.