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Stocks weather yield spike after Iran deal hopes cool oil
US risk appetite ultimately improved despite a midweek rates shock and still-heavy geopolitical tape. The dominant cross-asset swing was the reversal of the Iran war premium: crude stayed volatile but ended under pressure as negotiations and a potential Hormuz framework advanced, helping equities look through sticky inflation signals and hawkish Fed commentary.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent moved from above $112 and impaired Gulf flows to roughly $99 by Sunday after Trump delayed planned strikes and Washington and Tehran moved toward a limited Hormuz reopening deal; energy equities and crude proxies lagged as the risk premium bled out.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries sold off hard when block sales helped push the 30-year yield to 5.19%, its highest since 2007, and Waller later said the next Fed move was as likely to be a hike as a cut; duration-sensitive equity valuations remained under pressure even as Iran-related inflation fears eased.• Equities/Risk: The S&P 500 still extended its weekly winning streak and the Dow hit a record as lower oil and AI enthusiasm offset weak Michigan sentiment, softer European PMIs and a hotter US factory survey.• AI/Semis: Nvidia’s results and guidance beat on the surface but disappointed elevated expectations, while China restrictions, compliance concerns and hyperscaler credit exposure tempered enthusiasm; AI infrastructure demand still supported power names and chip sentiment.• Single Names/M&A: Dominion rallied on NextEra’s all-stock bid, Uber pursued Delivery Hero, Futu and Tiger slumped on China’s brokerage crackdown, and Lilly gained on obesity-drug data.
Oil drops after US and Iran near Hormuz deal
Geopolitical risk premium bled out of crude through the day as Washington and Tehran appeared closer to a limited Hormuz framework, lifting futures and pressuring energy equities even though execution risk stayed high. The relief trade was tempered by warnings that long yields may remain sticky and by idiosyncratic China and M&A stories after hours.• Iran/Oil: Brent fell as much as 4.2% to $99.16 and WTI traded near $92 after a U.S. official said the sides agreed in principle to reopen Hormuz without tolls. The deal remained unsigned, could take days to approve and left the highly enriched uranium mechanism unresolved.• Shipping/Energy: Physical flows improved at the margin, with Iraqi crude and several LNG tankers exiting the Gulf, but the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continued and Centcom said 100 commercial vessels had been redirected since April 13.• Rates/Macro: ING, Goldman and Barclays warned long yields may stay elevated even if war inflation fades, keeping pressure on duration-sensitive equity valuations.• China Brokers: Citic estimated Beijing’s trading crackdown could affect HK$200 billion-HK$250 billion of Hong Kong assets, mostly at Futu and Tiger.• Delivery/M&A: FT said Uber’s board considered topping a rejected €38-a-share approach for Delivery Hero.
Oil drops after US and Iran move closer to Hormuz deal
Crude led the market reaction lower, but Hormuz execution risk and new China-related company exposures kept risk appetite selective.• Oil/FX: Brent fell as much as 4.2% to $99.16 and WTI traded near $92; US stock futures rose and the dollar slid while final approval of any Hormuz deal could take days.• Shipping/Energy: The US blockade of Iranian ports continued; Centcom said 100 commercial vessels have been redirected and four disabled since April 13. Bloomberg tracked three recent LNG tanker crossings, only seven since the war began.• China Brokers: Citic estimated the trading crackdown could affect HK$200 billion-HK$250 billion of Hong Kong assets, mostly at Futu and Tiger; existing mainland clients may only sell and withdraw during a two-year transition.• Delivery/Chips: FT said Uber’s board considered topping a rejected €38-a-share Delivery Hero approach. Separately, Huawei targeted 1.4nm chips by 2031 using “LogicFolding.”
Oil risk eases after US official confirms unsigned Hormuz framework
Energy relief broadened but remains conditional, while higher real yields and crowded shorts added sector pressure.• Iran/Oil: A U.S. official said Washington and Tehran agreed in principle to reopen Hormuz without tolls, but the deal is unsigned, could take days for approval and leaves the uranium-disposal mechanism unresolved.• Iran/Nuclear: Rubio signaled a phased approach: reopen the strait first, then negotiate enrichment and highly enriched uranium. A U.S. official said missiles and an enrichment moratorium are not covered.• Shipping/Oil: The VLCC Eagle Verona, carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude to China, exited the Persian Gulf; other ships reportedly moved toward the strait.• Rates/Macro: ING, Goldman and Barclays warned long yields may stay elevated even if war inflation fades; FT estimated current yields could add $8 billion to fiscal-2026 U.S. interest costs.• Gambling: S3 said shorts have made at least $2.3 billion this year betting against Flutter, DraftKings and Entain.
US officials cite Iran uranium concession as Kocher says ECB may hike in June
Iran diplomacy stayed the main cross-asset swing factor, but reported terms became more specific and contested; rates and defense news added secondary pressure.• Iran/Oil: Two US officials told NYT Iran agreed in principle to give up highly enriched uranium, but no mechanism is set and Tehran has not publicly confirmed it.• Hormuz/Energy: Bloomberg said Fars called Trump’s imminent-deal claim “far from reality,” while Axios reported a draft 60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, Iranian oil sales and continued nuclear talks.• Shipping/LNG: An Adnoc LNG tanker exited Hormuz for India, the first Persian Gulf LNG shipment since the war began, even as the strait remains largely shut.• Rates/Europe: ECB’s Kocher said a June hike is likely unless a sustainable US-Iran peace deal emerges.• Defense/Ukraine: Russia launched a heavy missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv.
Oil risk eases after Iran deal terms emerge
Early AI, trade and deal news gave way to a geopolitical de-escalation trade, with reported Iran concessions pressuring oil-linked equities while leaving macro risks unresolved. The close also carried a more cautious tone around AI financing, compliance and valuation after fresh inflation and sentiment data.• Iran/Oil: Trump said an Iran deal was “largely negotiated,” and reports said Tehran accepted free Hormuz traffic, asset releases and a pledge to give up highly enriched uranium. The terms were not public, but the read-through was negative for crude proxies and energy equities.• AI/Credit: Hyperscalers have borrowed more than $250 billion for AI buildouts, and BofA’s hyperscaler CDS volumes have risen tenfold since early 2025. That kept pressure on large AI spenders as banks approach exposure limits.• Semis/Compliance: Nvidia had an early boost from a proposed $9 billion intelligence-agency AI-chip request, but Jensen Huang later pressed Super Micro to tighten compliance after Taiwan detained people over alleged fraudulent AI-server exports.• Delivery M&A: Delivery Hero confirmed Uber’s €33-a-share approach and Uber’s nearly 20% stake plus options exposure, while investors reportedly want above €40 and DoorDash also sounded out holders.• Macro/Valuation: April PCE was expected to reaccelerate, University of Michigan sentiment reportedly hit a 70-year low, and the S&P 500 CAPE sat near dot-com-era levels.
Trump says Iran deal is near as hyperscaler CDS volumes surge
Geopolitical risk skewed toward de-escalation, while AI financing and inflation data added fresh cross-asset pressure points.• Iran/Oil: Trump said an Iran deal was “largely negotiated” and would reopen Hormuz; Iranian officials told NYT they accepted an MOU with free traffic, no tolls, $25 billion in asset releases and nuclear talks deferred 30-60 days, though terms remain unofficial.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg said April PCE is expected to rise 3.8% year over year, with core inflation at its fastest pace since late 2023.• AI/Credit: Hyperscalers have borrowed more than $250 billion for AI, pushing banks toward exposure limits; BofA’s monthly hyperscaler CDS volumes are up tenfold since early 2025.• Delivery: Delivery Hero confirmed Uber’s €33-a-share proposal and Uber’s nearly 20% stake plus 5.6% options exposure.• Defense: The US warned Japan that 400 Tomahawk deliveries could be delayed by up to two years.
Uber, DoorDash court Delivery Hero holders as Nvidia presses Super Micro on compliance
Deal risk, AI compliance and energy supply drove the actionable tape, with Europe adding fresh rate pressure.• Food Delivery: FT said Uber and DoorDash sounded out Delivery Hero investors; holders want above €40 a share, while Uber’s roughly €33 proposal was rebuffed and both suitors may walk.• AI Hardware: Jensen Huang urged Super Micro to tighten compliance after Taiwan detained three people over alleged fraudulent AI-server exports; the Taiwan case is separate from a US smuggling prosecution tied to Super Micro’s co-founder.• Energy: A drone attack sparked fires at Russia’s Novorossiysk oil depot and terminal. Separately, US producers are adding rigs and capex, including Diamondback and Continental, to capture $100 crude.• Rates/Europe: ECB’s Stournaras said a June rate hike may be needed to protect credibility as inflation forecasts worsen without a US-Iran peace deal.
US weighs chip tariffs as SpaceX Starship test succeeds
Risk news tilted toward AI infrastructure, trade frictions and pre-IPO space validation, with several single-name read-throughs.• Space/IPO: SpaceX’s redesigned Starship deployed mock satellites in a key pre-IPO test; reports differed on orbit/sub-orbit and splashdown details.• Semis/AI: The White House approved a secret $9 billion request for intelligence-agency AI chips, partly for Nvidia Grace Blackwell infrastructure; Congress must approve it, with $800 million reprogrammed now.• Semis/Trade: USTR Greer said chip-import tariffs are under consideration to spur reshoring, though no immediate levies are planned.• Streaming/Trade: The US ambassador accused Canada of discriminatory barriers after regulators lifted Netflix/Disney+ local-content payments to 15% of Canadian revenue from 5%.• AI Stakes: Zoom disclosed its Anthropic stake is worth about $1.27 billion, with roughly $1 billion in gains.
S&P 500 extends rally while Fed hike bets rise
Stocks absorbed a rates scare and firmer oil to finish the week higher, with AI and space enthusiasm helping offset weaker consumer data and geopolitical risk. The day’s arc moved from China regulatory pressure and European macro softness to a midday Fed repricing, then into a stronger close and after-hours support from AI infrastructure headlines.• Rates/Fed: Waller said the Fed’s next move was as likely to be a hike as a cut, and swaps fully priced a 25 bp hike by end-2026 after Michigan sentiment hit a record low and long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.• Markets/Energy: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% for an eighth straight weekly gain, while Brent closed up 0.9% at $103.54 as Iran talks stayed unresolved and Trump remained in Washington.• China Brokers: Futu and Tiger Brokers sold off sharply after China’s securities regulator planned to confiscate illegal gains and levy severe penalties on cross-border online brokers.• Deals/Single Names: Uber studied a full Delivery Hero takeover, Lantheus weighed a sale after Curium’s approach, and NextEra proposed a large all-stock merger with Dominion.• AI/Space: After hours, a successful SpaceX Starship test lifted space sentiment, while a secret $9 billion US request for AI chips supported Nvidia despite discussion of future chip tariffs.
S&P 500 clinches eighth weekly gain as Uber studies Delivery Hero takeover
Stocks finished stronger despite rates and geopolitical noise, while deal reports and executive moves kept single-name risk active.• Markets/Fed: The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and clinched an eighth straight weekly gain; the Dow set its ninth 2026 closing record. Trump told Warsh to be independent at swearing-in, then said rates should come down.• Energy/Iran: Brent closed up 0.9% at $103.54. Baker Hughes said US oil rigs rose by 10 to 425, the biggest weekly increase since April 2022, while Trump canceled weekend plans to remain in Washington amid Iran talks.• Deals: Bloomberg reported Uber is studying a full Delivery Hero takeover after building a 19.5% stake; Lantheus is weighing a roughly $7 billion sale after a Curium approach.• Retail: WSJ reported Sam’s Club COO Tom Ward and Walmart US store-operations head Cedric Clark are leaving after CEO John Furner’s February handoff.
Rate-hike bets rise after Waller warns cuts are no longer likely
Rates risk moved back to the center of the tape, even as AI and space enthusiasm kept equity indexes firm.• Rates/Fed: Fed Governor Waller said the next move is as likely to be a hike as a cut and urged dropping easing-bias language; swaps now fully price a 25 bp Fed hike by end-2026.• Macro/Consumer: University of Michigan sentiment fell to a record-low 44.8 from 49.8, below all forecasts, while long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 was on pace for an eighth weekly gain; Brent traded near $104, the 10-year yield rose to 4.58%, and SoftBank’s two-day AI-driven gain reached 34%.• Space/Equities: SpaceX IPO excitement lifted AST SpaceMobile and Virgin Galactic more than 9%, with Rocket Lab up about 7%.• Retail/M&A: GameStop slipped about 1.7% after seeking authority to raise its share count while pursuing eBay.
Futu tumbles after China targets cross-border brokers
Premarket risk was mixed: China regulatory action hit online brokers, while deal flow and sticky inflation/rate risks dominated elsewhere.• China Brokers: CSRC plans to confiscate illegal gains and levy severe penalties on Futu, Tiger Brokers and Longbridge; FUTU fell 35% and TIGR as much as 47% premarket.• Utilities/Deals: NextEra proposed a $420 billion all-stock merger with Dominion at nearly $76 a share, a 23% premium, targeting AI-driven power demand; regulatory scrutiny is likely.• Macro/Rates: Bloomberg economists lifted US inflation forecasts above 3% through year-end and split on a December Fed cut; Kevin Warsh is sworn in today as Fed chair.• Energy/Geopolitics: Rubio cited “slight progress” in mediated Iran talks but said a deal is uncertain; oil rose with Hormuz and enrichment disputes unresolved.
UK data weaken as CVC and GBL bid for Recordati
Overnight news leaned macro-negative in Europe and the UK, partly offset by signs Gulf oil cargoes are still moving and fresh corporate demand signals.• UK Macro: April borrowing hit £24.3 billion, above the £20.9 billion watchdog forecast, while retail sales fell 1.3% versus the 0.6% decline expected.• Energy/Shipping: Japan said a tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude could dock Monday, the first Persian Gulf oil shipment to transit Hormuz since the war began.• Deals/Healthcare: CVC and GBL offered €51.29 a share for Recordati, valuing the Italian drugmaker at more than $12 billion, with committed financing and a planned delisting.• AI/Consumer Tech: DeepSeek advanced a potential $10 billion round at a $45 billion valuation; Nintendo asked suppliers for about 20 million Switch 2 units, 20% above guidance.