Jul 14, 2026

South Korea hikes rates as US disables tanker near Iran oil hub

Policy and energy-risk headlines broadened after the US-Iran escalation, with Asian rate sensitivity and fuel supply stress moving to the foreground.• Korea/Rates: The Bank of Korea raised its seven-day repo rate 25 bp to 2.75%, its first hike since January 2023, citing inflation pressure as chip-led growth improves.• Iran/Energy: US Central Command disabled the Curaçao-flagged M/T Belma with Hellfire missiles as it headed for Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub, the first reported US attack on a commercial vessel in the renewed blockade.• Fuels/India: India raised diesel export levies to 15.5 rupees a liter from 8.5 rupees and increased jet-fuel export taxes as global fuel markets tightened.• Single Names: Nvidia expanded its Toyota AI partnership, JB Hunt beat Q2 profit estimates, and Lilly is reportedly near a deal for psychedelic drugmaker AtaiBeckley.

Oil rises after US launches fresh Iran strikes

Geopolitical risk re-accelerated into the close, while the equity tape held up on megacap tech despite fresh chip weakness and several company-specific moves.• Iran/Oil: US Central Command said it hit Iranian missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, then launched a second wave; WSJ reported Trump is leaning toward expanding operations, including possible island seizures, though no final decision was made.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 rose 0.38% and the Nasdaq gained 0.62% as Apple, Alphabet and Amazon rose more than 3%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.1%, with Micron down 8%.• Airlines: United raised the low end of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9-$11 after a Q2 beat, saying demand is offsetting Iran-linked fuel costs.• Deals/Regulation: Uber is nearing a €12.5 billion Delivery Hero deal, while Google will allow third-party app stores inside Play next week.

Treasuries rise after producer prices fall in June

Softer wholesale inflation supported duration and risk appetite, while bank earnings and deal headlines drove single-name moves. Oil stayed tight, with inventory data adding to the Gulf supply risk premium.• Macro/Rates: June PPI fell 0.3% versus expectations for no change; core PPI rose 0.2% month over month and 4.7% year over year. Short yields fell 3-4 bp, and July Fed-hike odds slipped to about 15%.• Banks: Morgan Stanley earned $5.6 billion, above estimates, as equity-trading revenue jumped 69% to a record $6.3 billion; wealth net new assets reached $148.1 billion.• Payments: PayPal rose more than 18% after WSJ reported Stripe and Advent made a roughly $53 billion, $60.50-a-share bid, with no assurance PayPal will engage.• Energy: EIA crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels, more than expected; commercial inventories sit 6% below the five-year average.

Oil holds near $86 after Trump pledges to intensify Iran strikes

Geopolitical risk stayed firm, while fresh earnings and China AI approvals added stock-specific support before the open.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the US will intensify strikes until Iran stops attacking ships and reopens Hormuz; Brent traded near $86.36, and EASA told airlines to avoid Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Gulf of Oman until July 29.• Apple/China: China approved Apple’s Alibaba-powered generative AI tools for iPhones, moving Apple Intelligence closer to launch in its largest smartphone market.• PayPal: PYPL rose more than 15% premarket to $54.57 after reports of Stripe and Advent’s $60.50-a-share bid, though reports still say engagement is limited.• Earnings: BlackRock assets topped $15.3 trillion on $192 billion of inflows; J&J, Elevance, BNY and PNC beat estimates or raised guidance.

ASML raises outlook as China credit misses forecasts

AI capex support broadened in chips, while China’s credit data added pressure for policy support. Deal chatter lifted payments, and shipping warnings kept energy risk elevated.• Chips/AI: ASML raised 2026 sales guidance to €43 billion-€45 billion from €36 billion-€40 billion and lifted its gross-margin outlook to 54%-56%; Intel began using ASML’s High NA EUV tool in Oregon.• China Credit: June aggregate financing and new yuan loans missed forecasts; Bloomberg calculations showed aggregate financing down 20% year over year and new loans down 28%. The PBOC pledged moderately loose policy but said the seven-day reverse repo remains the key rate.• Payments: Stripe and Advent reportedly bid $60.50 a share for PayPal, valuing it near $53 billion, though the FT said PayPal had not engaged and a deal was unlikely at that price.• Energy/Shipping: The IMO warned Hormuz remains too dangerous for commercial ships; Japan’s trade chief called the strait effectively off-limits.

China growth misses forecasts as oil rises on Hormuz blockade

China’s slowdown added macro risk, while Hormuz stress kept energy bid and company news hit AI, chips and labor litigation.• China Macro: GDP grew 4.3% year over year, below the 4.5% estimate and target range; fixed investment fell 5.7%, while retail sales and industrial output beat.• China Markets: CSI 300 gains faded and briefly turned negative; HSCEI rose 1.6%, offshore yuan held near 6.77 per dollar and the 10-year yield stayed at 1.73%.• Oil/Hormuz: Only a handful of vessels crossed Hormuz after the US blockade took effect; WTI rose to $80.22 and Brent to $85.87 in Asian trading.• AI/Chips: The US expanded UAE access to advanced AI chips, a potential benefit for Microsoft, OpenAI and G42, while drawing conflict-of-interest scrutiny.• Meta: Twenty-six workers sued, alleging AI-assisted layoff tools discriminated against employees on disability or protected leave; Meta denied the claims.

US resumes Iran blockade as Kuwait suffers missile and drone strikes

Geopolitical risk re-tightened after the blockade restart, while the cash close confirmed a split tape: tech-led index gains despite IBM’s record selloff and renewed oil stress.• Iran/Oil: CENTCOM said the US naval blockade restarted at 4 p.m.; Treasury sanctioned more than 50 entities tied to Hossein Shamkhani’s shipping network. WTI rose 0.7% to $79.87 and Brent settled at $84.73.• Gulf Security: Kuwait said five cruise missiles, one ballistic missile and 33 drones hit vital and civilian sites, injuring four navy personnel.• EVs: Lucid confirmed AlixPartners as a turnaround adviser, denied bankruptcy or take-private recommendations and closed 16% lower after an earlier 56% plunge.• Power/AI: PJM’s 2028 capacity auction missed reliability needs by 6.8GW, with payouts at the $16.4 billion record cap.• Media: The Writers Guild sued to block the Paramount-Warner deal, alleging the combined firm would control about 35% of top film-writing jobs.

Lucid sinks on bankruptcy report as Trump drops Hormuz fee

Risk appetite held up, but news flow added fresh single-name stress and only partial relief on Hormuz policy.• EVs: Lucid fell as much as 55% after a report said it was weighing bankruptcy or going private; the company declined to comment on “rumors or speculation,” and Rivian also dropped.• Hormuz: Trump abandoned the proposed 20% cargo fee, saying Gulf investment deals would replace it, but WSJ said a naval blockade on Iranian ports was still set for 4 p.m. ET.• Banks: Citi erased gains and fell as much as 5.7% after Jane Fraser said constructive conditions would prompt more investments and other actions.• Data Centers: New York plans a one-year ban on new data centers above 50MW, pressuring DLR, EQIX and BX.• Media/Biotech: States sought to delay Paramount’s Warner deal, while Biogen fell over 8% on Alzheimer’s data.

Treasuries rally after cool CPI cuts July Fed-hike odds

Cooler inflation drove the main market move, easing near-term Fed-hike risk even as Warsh kept a hawkish anti-inflation tone. Company news broadened beyond banks, with software under pressure and several deal and health-care headlines moving single names.• Macro/Rates: June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year; core was flat and up 2.6%. Two-year yields fell as much as 14 bp to 4.14%, while July hike odds dropped to roughly 16%-20%.• Fed: Warsh told lawmakers the Fed “can and will” deliver price stability, called the balance sheet a policy tool, and said task-force results would be shared periodically by year-end.• Tech/Software: IBM traded down about 24%, wiping out roughly $68 billion, and pulled lower ACN, IT, WDAY and NOW.• Banks/Deals: Citi earned $3.15 a share on $24.8 billion revenue; Uber is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Delivery Hero.• Health Care: HCA fell after cutting 2026 EPS guidance to $28.70-$30.50.

Bank profits jump as IBM warns on sales

Bank earnings dominated premarket, with trading desks producing large beats, while IBM’s warning cut against the risk-on tone in financials.• Banks: JPMorgan posted record profit of $21.2 billion, aided by a $4.6 billion Visa-stake gain; Goldman earned $6.63 billion, with record $7.42 billion equities revenue. Bank of America and Wells Fargo also beat.• Tech: IBM fell about 18% premarket after preliminary revenue of $17.2 billion missed the $17.9 billion estimate and the company cited delayed deals and customer spending shifts.• Chips: Tower Semiconductor jumped more than 18% premarket after Japan granted $1 billion toward a $3 billion production expansion and the company raised its outlook.• Energy/Shipping: Kpler said confirmed Hormuz traffic fell to 10 ships; China urged safe passage and India protested to Iran after a seafarer was killed.

Oil tops $86 after Iranian missiles hit UAE tankers

Energy stress intensified after direct hits on UAE tankers, lifting crude and rate-hike bets; single-name news was led by BP’s balance-sheet update and chip-listing speculation.• Oil/Iran: The UAE said Iranian missiles hit Adnoc L&S tankers Al Bahyah and Mombasa B in Hormuz, killing one crew member. Brent traded above $86, up 13% this week.• Rates: Swaps now fully price a BOE hike by September and a September ECB hike, with another BOE move expected by year-end.• LNG: BNEF delayed its LNG oversupply call to 2028 from 2027, citing war disruption and project slippage; Pakistan sought another July cargo because Qatari supply tightened.• Companies/Chips: BP guided net debt to $22 billion-$23 billion and flagged a $1 billion impairment. Samsung is said to be considering a US ADR sale, while TSMC fell after 36% sales growth only met estimates.

China exports surge as Nvidia tightens Asia chip sales

Asia news was mixed: China’s trade data surprised strongly, but Nvidia compliance tightened and Fed-hike pricing rose before CPI and Warsh testimony.• China Trade: June exports rose 27% and imports 36%, both above forecasts, with a $125.6 billion surplus; crude imports fell 41% to the lowest since 2016.• Chips/AI: FT reported Nvidia cut by more than half the Asian customers authorized to buy its AI chips under a tougher China-diversion whitelist overseen by Commerce.• Rates: Options implied about a 50% July Fed-hike chance, versus 42%-43% earlier, while two-year yields held above 4.25%.• Oil/Iran: Bloomberg tracked six sanctioned Iranian supertankers moving dark through Hormuz; visible traffic had nearly stopped, while CENTCOM denied Iranian claims of damage at US bases in Kuwait.• Japan Rates: A 20-year JGB sale drew a 4.52 bid-to-cover, above the 3.54 12-month average, and futures gained.

Oil posts biggest gain since 2020 after US begins third night of Iran strikes

Markets closed with a sharper energy shock, a deeper chip selloff and renewed pressure on metals, while policy-rate odds moved higher.• Oil/Iran: Brent settled up 9.6% at $83.30 and WTI rose 9.4% to $78.14. CENTCOM said a third night of strikes began at 4:45 p.m. ET; Trump said Pickaxe mountain, a fortified nuclear site, was a planned target.• Rates/Metals: Futures put July Fed-hike odds at 42%, up from 18% early this month, and two hikes this year at 56%. Gold closed just under $4,000; silver fell 3.6% to $57.634.• Equities/Chips: The Nasdaq lost 1.55% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.8%; Micron, Intel, Marvell and Arm fell at least 4%.• Insurance: Lincoln National is in advanced talks with Talcott on a reinsurance deal covering roughly $5 billion of life reserves, Bloomberg reported.

Oil jumps after Trump seeks 20% Hormuz cargo fee

Oil and rates stayed under pressure from a sharper Hormuz standoff and a more explicit Fed tightening warning, while deal and legal news drove dispersion.• Energy/Iran: Trump said the US would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ships and seek 20% reimbursement on other Hormuz cargo; Iran said it would not allow US management. Brent was recently up 4.5% at $79.50.• Rates/Fed: Waller said a hot core-inflation print this week would put a near-term rate hike on the table; futures now price two quarter-point hikes by April.• Defense/Iran: CENTCOM said US sea drones hit Iran’s Bandar Abbas naval base Sunday, the first US combat use of unmanned surface vessels.• Media/Deals: Twelve states sued to block Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, despite DOJ clearance; the suit cites price, content and distribution harms.• Infrastructure: Williams secured a $5.34 billion Blackstone-led investment for five power-infrastructure projects.

Oil rises after Trump says US will run Hormuz

Risk appetite stayed pressured by a broader Hormuz confrontation, while AI infrastructure spending and antitrust-driven deal risk added single-name dispersion.• Energy/Iran: Trump said the US would “take over” and “probably run” Hormuz after another strike wave; Kpler counted weekend traffic at 19 ships, down more than half.• Oil/Supply: The UAE told OPEC June crude output jumped 80% to 3.8 million b/d. DP World is discussing a Fujairah port bypass after Jebel Ali activity reportedly fell 90%-95%.• AI/Power: Meta lifted its Louisiana data-center plan to more than $50 billion and 5GW, nearly double the original cost, with Blue Owl a major stakeholder.• Semis: Intel plans €5 billion for its Irish Leixlip hub to expand Xeon and foundry capacity.• Industrials/Deals: TransDigm abandoned its $960 million Stellant acquisition after DOJ and Pentagon scrutiny.

Chip stocks slide after US-Iran strikes deepen risk-off trade

Risk-off pressure broadened beyond oil into high-beta AI hardware, while company updates offered a few offsets in autos and foundry demand.• Chips/AI: Nasdaq 100 futures pointed 1.2% lower, South Korea’s Kospi fell 8% and halted, and SK Hynix dropped more than 13%; Micron and Nvidia were cited among global AI-linked decliners.• Energy/Iran: Kpler data showed all six commodity carriers that crossed Hormuz on Sunday did so with transponders off, and no ships were visible on AIS early Monday.• Semis: TSMC reported June-quarter revenue of NT$1.27 trillion, up 36%, with June sales up 68%; full earnings are due Thursday.• Autos: Stellantis said second-quarter shipments rose 10% to 1.6 million vehicles, helped by a 38% jump in North America.• Tech/Policy: Von der Leyen said the EU will propose a minimum social-media age after summer, keeping pressure on Meta.

Oil jumps after new US-Iran strikes lift Fed-hike bets

Energy-driven inflation risk hit futures, bonds and metals, while credit supply worries broadened around AI infrastructure borrowers.• Energy/Rates: Brent rose 3.6% to $78.78 and WTI gained 3.6% to $74.01 after fresh US-Iran strikes; S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, the two-year Treasury yield reached 4.24%, and swaps now price the next Fed hike by October.• Metals/FX: Gold fell as much as 1.2% below $4,070 as the dollar strengthened; Asian currencies mostly weakened, with the Dollar Index up 0.2%.• AI Credit: WSJ said six hyperscalers including Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle issued $244 billion of debt this year, with spreads widening after recent deals.• Banks: JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BofA and Citi are forecast to post a 27% rise in Q2 investment-banking fees to $11.1 billion.• Deals: Nippon Paint offered €7.5 billion for AkzoNobel’s decorative paints unit, complicating Akzo’s agreed Axalta merger.