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Oil jumps after US strikes Iran
Geopolitics and AI de-risking defined the day: an overnight Hormuz shipping scare kept crude bid, Asia’s chip profit-taking rolled into a Nasdaq-led US selloff, and the close brought a sharper energy shock after Washington revoked Iran’s oil waiver and later announced strikes on Iranian targets. Higher oil, a large Amazon bond sale and firmer inflation expectations pushed rates wider and reinforced the rotation out of crowded AI exposure.• Energy/Iran: Reports that missiles hit commercial vessels near Hormuz lifted crude early, then Treasury revoked the waiver allowing new Iranian oil transactions. CENTCOM later said U.S. forces began strikes on Iranian targets, leaving Brent up more than 6% around $76.50.• Semis/AI: Samsung’s post-guidance slump spread into U.S. AI names, while a Reuters report that DeepSeek is developing an inference chip added pressure. Nvidia, Micron, Intel, AMD and equipment names sold off sharply as investors cut crowded AI exposure.• Rates/Credit: Treasury yields rose 3-4 bp, with the 10-year near 4.52%, after one-year inflation expectations rose and Amazon upsized its bond sale to at least $25B. Hyperscaler credit widened, Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 1996 high, and the dollar gained.• Corporate Movers: Exxon flagged a $3.7B oil-price boost to profit, Shell guided to stronger gas trading, Rivian tumbled on a planned share sale, and Fiserv reversed after its president resigned.
Oil jumps after US launches new strikes against Iran
Risk skewed more defensive after Washington moved from sanctions pressure to direct strikes on Iran, lifting oil and the dollar while adding pressure to global yields.• Energy/Iran: CENTCOM said U.S. forces began “powerful strikes” on Iranian targets after attacks on three commercial vessels near Hormuz; Tehran has not claimed responsibility. Brent traded around $76.50, up more than 6%.• Rates/FX: Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 2.855%, the highest intraday level since 1996, while Asian currencies weakened as the dollar gained safe-haven support.• Energy Majors: Exxon said the oil rally added $3.7B to second-quarter profit, with another $3.3B from refining and chemicals partly offset by $1.2B of Middle East disruption losses.• Payments: Fiserv President Dhivya Suryadevara resigned weeks after her promotion, extending management turmoil.• Beauty: Estée Lauder raised expected restructuring charges to as much as $1.75B from about $1.55B.
Oil jumps after US revokes Iran oil waiver
Energy risk re-priced late after Washington withdrew Iran’s oil reprieve, while tech weakness broadened into credit and several idiosyncratic equities moved on financing and product news.• Energy/Iran: Treasury revoked the waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, effective July 7 for new transactions with a July 17 grace period. WTI rose as much as 5% above $72 and Brent traded around $76.• Tech/Credit: Amazon’s at least $25B bond sale pressured existing hyperscaler debt; dealer runs showed Amazon notes 7-10 bp wider and SpaceX 9-13 bp wider.• Autos: Rivian fell more than 18% after announcing a planned 75M-share sale.• AI/Platforms: Meta launched Muse Image in Meta AI, Instagram and WhatsApp, with advertiser tools planned.• Casinos/M&A: Jefferies is sounding out about $5B of debt for Carl Icahn’s possible $33-a-share Caesars bid; no final decision was reported.
Nasdaq slides as Treasury yields rise
Risk stayed pressured by confirmed U.S. tech losses and higher yields, while defense and payments generated discrete single-name movers.• Rates/Credit: Treasuries fell, with yields up 3-4 bp and the 10-year near 4.52%, as Amazon’s bond sale was upsized to at least $25B and oil rebounded.• Semis/Tech: The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2%; Intel and Western Digital dropped 11%, Applied Materials, Marvell and Micron about 9%-10%, and AMD 9%.• Macro/Inflation: NY Fed survey data showed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% from 3.5%, while three-year expectations hit 3.3%, the highest since June 2022.• Defense/Turkey: Trump said the U.S. will consider F-35 sales to Turkey and remove CAATSA sanctions; NATO also outlined roughly $50B of defense deals.• Payments: Fiserv rose 6.1% to $54.94 after the reported bank interest in its debit network.
Nasdaq futures fall after Reuters says DeepSeek is developing an AI chip
Tech remained the main pressure point, with AI-capex financing and fresh Gulf shipping risk keeping rotation uneven before the open.• Semis/AI: Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.1%; Nvidia slipped 2.2% after Reuters reported DeepSeek is developing an inference chip, while Micron fell about 6% and Intel 4%.• Tech Volatility: The Cboe NDX Volatility Index near 27 reached its highest level versus the VIX since 2002; RBC said clients are reducing AI exposure and rotating into healthcare and staples.• Credit/AI Capex: Amazon is selling up to eight bond tranches, including 40-year debt at about 145 basis points over Treasuries, to fund AI infrastructure.• Energy/Shipping: A Saudi-flagged crude tanker was damaged in Hormuz; separately, Iraq restored three southern fields to full capacity.• Deals/Industrials: Getty terminated the Shutterstock merger after the UK demanded an editorial-business sale; Boeing may win about 10 787s from Philippine Airlines.
Tech futures fall after Samsung’s profit-taking spreads
Risk tone weakened in early Europe: AI-linked futures extended Asia’s chip selloff, while energy risk stayed bid after more detail on Gulf shipping disruptions.• Semis: U.S. tech futures fell and AI-chain stocks weakened as Samsung slid despite a 19-fold profit jump, reinforcing concern that the memory trade is crowded.• Energy/Shipping: UKMTO said QatarEnergy’s Al Rekayyat was hit by an unknown projectile near Hormuz; sources said a second vessel may have been hit, and Pakistan said another Qatari LNG tanker turned back.• Energy Majors: Shell guided to significantly higher gas-trading results and oil trading in line with a strong first quarter, but flagged lower integrated-gas production from lost Qatari volumes.• Macro/Commodities: Germany’s May industrial output rose 0.9% versus a small expected decline, while China made its biggest gold purchase since October 2023.
Oil rises after Iran missiles hit ships near Hormuz
Geopolitical risk returned while Asia’s AI trade finally showed fatigue; rates desks also got firmer Japan wage evidence.• Energy/Shipping: A US official said Iran’s IRGC fired missiles at two commercial ships near Hormuz. Qatar-linked LNG carrier Al Rekayyat was reported hit with no casualties; European gas rose as much as 4.1%, while Brent and WTI gained about 0.7%.• AI Semis: Asian chip stocks sold off despite Samsung’s record-profit guidance; Samsung fell 8.4%, SK Hynix 7.5% and South Korea’s benchmark lost 5.9% as investors took profits.• Nvidia/China: A Bloomberg Intelligence survey found Chinese firms plan to lift domestic AI-accelerator spending to 46% of budgets from 30%, implying lower Nvidia share as H20 access tightens.• Japan/Rates: Japan’s nominal wages rose 3.2% in May, with markets pricing an 82% chance of a BOJ hike by December.
Oil rebounds after Iranian missiles hit LNG tanker near Hormuz
Risk appetite initially leaned pro-growth as services data held near expectations and AI infrastructure headlines supported the Nasdaq, but the day’s dominant swing came in energy: a record Saudi price cut first eased crude, then a reported missile strike near Hormuz restored geopolitical risk after hours.• Energy/Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia cut August Arab Light pricing to Asia by $11 a barrel, pressuring Brent early, before reports that Iranian missiles hit commercial vessels near Hormuz lifted Brent back near $72.25 and pushed European gas higher.• AI/Semis: Nvidia-linked sentiment stayed mixed after SemiAnalysis reported a more-than-12-month Kyber rack delay and Chinese firms planned more local accelerator spending, while Broadcom rallied on an extended Apple supply deal and Samsung’s profit beat later faded into a sell-the-news trade.• Macro/Markets: ISM services slipped to 54, with a stronger employment gauge and cooler prices; the Nasdaq rose about 1% as investors rotated toward tech despite softer energy and transport pricing.• Deals/Capital: TeraWulf jumped on a 20-year Anthropic AI-campus lease, Vertex agreed to buy Crinetics for $10B, Rivian fell after launching a 75M-share sale, and Solstice agreed to buy Element Solutions.
Samsung profit beats estimates as Vertex buys Crinetics
After-hours news leaned constructive for AI memory but mixed for single-name risk, with biotech M&A offset by EV dilution and fresh payment-deal speculation.• AI Memory: Samsung preliminarily posted 89.4 trillion won in quarterly operating profit, above the 84.2 trillion won consensus, on AI data-center demand; revenue of 171 trillion won also beat.• Biotech M&A: Vertex agreed to buy Crinetics for $10B cash, or $85 a share, a 102% premium; CRNX more than doubled after hours, while Vertex takes on endocrinology pipeline risk.• EVs: Rivian launched a 75M-share sale to fund equity contributions tied to a DOE loan; the deal could raise about $1.5B, and RIVN fell 7.4% after hours.• Payments/Retail: JPMorgan, BofA, Wells and PNC have held preliminary talks about buying Fiserv’s debit networks; Walmart cut prices on thousands of items.
Nasdaq rises as SK Hynix launches $28 billion IPO
Tech strength held despite fresh corporate cuts, while easing shipping and oil-supply pressure weighed on transport and energy-linked trades.• Macro/Markets: ISM services slipped to 54 in June, near expectations, while the employment gauge posted its biggest jump since 2024 and prices eased to 67.7; the Nasdaq was up about 1%.• Semis/IPO: SK Hynix launched its Nasdaq IPO to raise $28B, with Situational Awareness, Baillie Gifford and Coatue indicating demand for up to $7B of ADSs.• Shipping: Maersk will send its first cargo through Suez and the Red Sea since the Iran war began; Maersk fell nearly 7% and Hapag-Lloyd 4% on added-capacity concerns.• Software/Gaming: Microsoft’s Xbox plans 3,200 job cuts, with another 3,200 layoffs elsewhere, and will sell or review five studios.• Defense: Lockheed agreed to buy Ultra Maritime from Advent for $3.45B.
Oil falls after Saudis make record crude-price cut
Risk appetite improved around AI infrastructure, but oil and shipping-rate pressure pointed to easing supply constraints.• Oil: Saudi Arabia cut August Arab Light pricing to Asia by $11 a barrel, the biggest reduction in at least 26 years; Brent traded near $72 as OPEC+ supply and Hormuz normalization weighed.• AI Infrastructure: TeraWulf signed a 20-year Anthropic lease for a Kentucky AI campus that could generate $19B in revenue and add 400 MW by 2028; shares rose 17% premarket.• Semis: Broadcom extended its Apple supply agreement through 2031, sending AVGO about 5% higher premarket.• M&A/Chemicals: Honeywell spinoff Solstice agreed to buy Element Solutions in a $14.5B cash-and-stock deal at about a 15% premium.• Crypto: Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216M to fund preferred dividends; shares fell about 2%-3% premarket.
Nvidia suppliers slide after SemiAnalysis reports Kyber server delay
AI hardware risk dominated early trading, while deal flow stayed active and European data improved; energy infrastructure risk also resurfaced.• AI Hardware: SemiAnalysis said Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 rack system is delayed more than 12 months to 2028 because of PCB setbacks; Nvidia did not comment, and Asian PCB suppliers slid.• Chips/Compliance: Singapore filed additional money-laundering charges in an AI server fraud case tied to possible Nvidia-chip diversion; prosecutors allege end-user misrepresentations to Dell, Super Micro and Asustek, none of which are accused.• M&A: Comcast’s Sky agreed to buy ITV’s media arm for up to £1.6B, and Novartis agreed to buy Myricx for up to $1.5B; Solstice-Element merger talks were reported but unconfirmed.• Macro/Energy: German factory orders rose 1.9% in May, above estimates, while Ukrainian drones fell near Russia’s Ust-Luga and Vysotsk ports, keeping Baltic export risk in view.
Stocks rally as AI hardware stumbles
Risk appetite improved over the week as Gulf de-escalation, softer labor data and lower front-end yields helped equities look through weak spots, with the Dow setting records and the Nasdaq still supported by mega-cap leadership early. The rotation was not clean: AI hardware moved from leadership to liability, oil’s war premium faded into OPEC+ supply relief, and idiosyncratic corporate news drove sharp single-name dispersion.• Macro/Rates: Softer ADP, ISM and June payrolls pushed two-year yields lower and weakened the dollar, helping cyclicals and rate-sensitive pockets even as stronger job openings and a collapsing yen kept macro risk from fully clearing.• AI/Semis: The SOX fell hard midweek as Meta’s plan to sell AI compute raised overcapacity fears, Asian memory stocks sold off, Apple’s talks with blacklisted Chinese suppliers added supply-chain concern, and Super Micro remained pressured by Taiwan’s Nvidia-chip diversion probe.• Oil/Geopolitics: Early relief around Hormuz supported risk, but crude later fell as Gulf flows normalized, OPEC output jumped and OPEC+ approved an August quota increase, offsetting lingering shipping and LNG frictions.• Consumer/Single Names: Tesla rallied on a second-quarter delivery beat, while Nike dropped after China weakness overshadowed earnings support from a tariff refund.• Corporate/Stress: Comcast jumped on plans to spin NBCUniversal and Sky, while Blue Owl and private-credit peers faced rising redemption pressure.
Brent falls after OPEC+ approves quota hike
Energy set the tone as OPEC+ supply relief gradually outweighed Gulf logistics risk, pushing Brent lower into the Asian reopen. Equity news was more stock-specific: AI infrastructure demand looked healthy early, but later headlines pointed to chip-share diversification and tighter China platform regulation.• Oil/Supply: OPEC+ first signaled and then ratified a 188,000 b/d August quota increase, taking wartime quota additions to 940,000 b/d. Brent slipped toward $71.64-$71.90 as Hormuz oil crossings improved, although constrained Qatar gas flows kept LNG stress visible.• AI Hardware: Hon Hai’s June revenue rose 52%, implying June-quarter sales above estimates and supporting the Nvidia server-demand read-through. Later, Turing said it added AMD Ventures and shifted about 10% of AI training to AMD GPUs to diversify away from Nvidia.• China Platforms: ByteDance and Alibaba moved to shut AI companion features before new rules on humanlike services take effect, with Tencent’s Yuanbao and others issuing similar alerts.• FX/Japan: Goldman raised its one-year dollar-yen forecast to 165 and favored yen-funded carry trades, while hedge-fund yen shorts were the largest since 2017.• Semis/Memory: SK Hynix’s planned Nasdaq listing was expected July 10 at about $29B, while Michael Burry’s Micron-cycle caution weighed on memory sentiment.
Goldman cuts yen forecast as China platforms pull AI companions
Asian trading opened with a softer dollar-rate impulse for commodities, but Japan funding risk, China AI regulation and still-fragile Gulf gas logistics supplied the cleaner equity and FX catalysts.• FX/Japan: Goldman raised its one-year dollar-yen forecast to 165 from 155 and favored yen-funded carry trades; dollar-yen traded near 161.79, with hedge-fund shorts the largest since 2017.• China AI: ByteDance and Alibaba are shutting AI companion features before mid-July rules on humanlike services; Tencent’s Yuanbao and others issued similar alerts, pressuring China platform sentiment.• Energy: Brent fell to $71.64-$71.90 as Hormuz oil flows improved and OPEC+ added quotas, but Pakistan bought a second emergency LNG cargo at $17.37/mmBtu as Qatar flows stayed constrained.• AI Chips: Turing added AMD Ventures and shifted about 10% of AI training to AMD GPUs, citing diversification and lower costs versus Nvidia.
OPEC+ ratifies quota hike as EasyJet backs Castlelake offer
Energy supply risk softened while deal news and AI-memory capital-markets activity supplied the main single-name catalysts; China consumer exposure and dollar funding risk stayed watch items.• Oil: OPEC+ formally approved a 188,000 b/d August quota increase, taking quota additions since the war began to 940,000 b/d; Brent was cited near $72 after a 43% drop from wartime highs.• M&A/Airlines: EasyJet agreed in principle to Castlelake’s fifth cash proposal at £6.90 a share, valuing the carrier at £5.2B, with a firm-bid deadline extended to next month.• Semis: SK Hynix’s planned Nasdaq listing is now expected July 10 at about $29B; Bloomberg Opinion separately backed Michael Burry’s Micron-cycle caution.• Retail/China: Lululemon said China weakness is temporary and kept its 20% FY growth target, but analysts flagged saturation and cannibalization.• FX/EM: Carry investors are shifting funding away from dollars toward euro, yen and Canadian-dollar baskets as the greenback rebounds.
OPEC+ backs quota hike as Hon Hai sales beat estimates
Oil news turned two-sided, with OPEC+ supply plans offset by fresh Hormuz frictions, while AI hardware demand and China trading revenues provided clearer equity support.• Oil/Supply: OPEC+ delegates said the group has a preliminary deal to raise August quotas by 188,000 b/d, pending ratification Sunday.• Oil/Hormuz: Kpler showed only 19 Hormuz crossings Saturday and just one vessel openly signaling inbound transit along Oman, after earlier U-turns.• AI Hardware: Hon Hai’s June revenue rose 52%, implying June-quarter sales of about NT$2.51T, above the NT$2.37T estimate, supporting Nvidia server-demand read-throughs.• Banks/China: Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan’s mainland securities units posted record 2025 net profits, driven by trading and brokerage.• Platforms: India ordered Meta to remove child sexual-abuse content and respond within a week, Bloomberg reported.