Jun 18, 2026

Fed hike bets firm after oil rebounds above $80

Thin holiday trading kept the risk tone hostage to oil and Middle East follow-through, while deal and product news added single-stock catalysts.• Rates/Oil: Swaps now fully price a 25bp Fed hike by September, up from 23bp Thursday, after Brent turned choppy and rose nearly 1% back above $80.• Middle East: Israel’s US ambassador said Israel halted offensive operations but would keep forces in southern Lebanon; Hezbollah has not publicly confirmed the ceasefire. The State Department said Israeli-Lebanese talks will resume next week in Washington.• Biotech M&A: AbbVie is nearing an all-cash Apogee deal worth about $10.9bn, the FT reported, implying roughly a 60% premium to APGE’s Thursday close.• Brokers/Exchanges: Schwab is working with Cboe to offer binary S&P 500 options in coming months, WSJ reported.• Credit: Fitch marked a Bain Capital European CLO junior tranche in default, the first CLO 2.0 default in Europe.

Oil turns lower after Israel and Hezbollah agree ceasefire

Middle East risk premiums eased late in the window, but shipping rules and policy headlines kept risk uneven while US markets were shut for Juneteenth.• Middle East/Oil: A US official said Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire starting 4pm local time; Brent turned 0.8% lower to $79.25 after earlier Lebanon fighting postponed US-Iran talks.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran’s strait authority said ships need its permission, must follow an Iran-set route and may later owe PGSA-approved insurance fees; Pakistan separately warned of a reported mine near Musandam.• Iran Flows: Seven Iranian supertankers carrying capacity of about 14mn barrels left Chabahar after the US blockade lifted, versus four vessels over the prior two days.• Canada Banks: OSFI cut the stability buffer 50bp to 3%, leaving big banks with an 11% CET1 minimum and C$74bn excess capital.

Dollar hits one-year high as Hormuz traffic thins

Energy, dollar and UK fiscal risks reasserted themselves, while regulators offered a more supportive turn for trading-heavy banks.• Hormuz/Oil: Strait traffic looked lighter Friday, with no outbound tankers seen in the morning; planned Switzerland talks were canceled, Brent moved back above $80, and about 40 VLCCs with nearly 80mn barrels remained ready to exit.• Dollar/Rates: The DXY reached 101.127, a one-year high, as LSEG data put a September Fed hike at 90% and October fully priced.• UK/Gilts: UK May borrowing hit £23.3bn versus £18.9bn expected, and 10-year gilt yields rose about five basis points to 4.81%; retail sales separately beat forecasts, rising 1.2%.• Banks/Regulation: The PRA proposed easing UK trading-book capital rules; internal models could cut affected banks’ capital needs by about one-third, or £700mn.

ASML faces US scrutiny as Google expands AI-chip financing

Chip and AI news dominated after hours, with export-control scrutiny, competing AI-chip financing and cost pressure across enterprise users.• Chip Equipment: The US told ASML it is concerned an EUV tool or related transport gear may have reached China; ASML denied shipping EUV systems or components there.• AI Chips: Google is expanding TPU financing, including guarantees tied to Anthropic clusters and a $5bn Blackstone deal, while planning direct TPU sales.• AI Costs: Amazon, Walmart, Cisco, Uber and Meta are curbing employee AI use; Uber capped individual spending at $1,500 a month after exhausting its 2026 budget by April.• FX/Rates: Hedge funds bought dollar calls after Warsh’s hawkish Fed; USD/JPY hovered near 161 despite Japan warning of “bold action.”• Defense/Pharma: The Pentagon told lawmakers it needs $80bn for the Iran war and other costs; USTR opened a Section 301 probe into Germany’s drug pricing.

Nasdaq jumps after US-Iran deal lowers oil

Risk recovered into the holiday close, but Hormuz administration, Fed repricing and AI funding needs kept caveats around the rally.• Markets/Oil: Nasdaq closed up 1.9% and S&P 500 up 1.1%; Brent finished at $79.85, about 9% lower on the week, and AAA gasoline fell below $4.• Hormuz: Iran said commercial ships must request passage through its new Persian Gulf Strait Authority; fees remain waived for 60 days, but shippers warned future charges are still possible.• SpaceX Credit: Moody’s rated SpaceX Baa1, S&P BBB and Fitch BBB+; FT said a $20bn 10-year bond could price 135-150bp over Treasuries.• AI/Meta: Meta signed new Crusoe compute deals for Texas and Missouri sites totaling about 1.6GW; timing and spending were not disclosed.• Biotech/Brokers: Moderna rose after an FDA panel unanimously backed its mRNA flu shot for ages 50-plus; Schwab warned of margin calls on long-short tax strategies.

Treasury traders price July Fed hike as Hormuz blockade ends

Nasdaq rebounded more than 1.5% despite a sharper repricing toward a July Fed hike, while confirmed Hormuz flows kept energy risk easing.• Rates: Treasury futures volume topped 500,000 contracts, four times average; swaps put July hike odds near 50%, from near zero before Warsh.• Hormuz/Oil: CENTCOM said the US blockade on Iranian ports ended; Vance said 12.5mn barrels moved through Hormuz in 24 hours.• SpaceX: Bankers are preparing investor calls as soon as Monday for a potential first investment-grade bond sale of at least $20bn.• AI/Chips: Amazon is discussing selling Trainium chips for use in other companies’ data centers; the third version is largely sold out.• Exchanges/Crypto: CME sued the CFTC to block Kalshi’s perpetual futures approval; the regulator called the lawsuit frivolous.

Accenture plunges after revenue outlook misses

US equities opened firmer on tech leadership, but the news mix added fresh pressure on consultants, oil producers and cloud platforms while labor data stayed steady.• Accenture: ACN fell as much as 19%, its worst intraday drop on record, after fourth-quarter revenue guidance missed consensus and bookings fell 2% to $19.3bn; management still cited AI transformation demand.• Oil/Hormuz: Kuwait said output will return to 2mn b/d within a week after repairs, and four Saudi tankers headed toward the Gulf of Oman; traders still reported quiet Hormuz traffic.• Macro/Rates: Initial jobless claims slipped 4,000 to 226,000, near estimates, while continuing claims rose to 1.81mn; September Fed-hike odds were cited at 64%.• Cloud/Regulation: EU preliminary findings may subject Azure and AWS to Digital Markets Act obligations as early as next week, with a final decision due by year-end.• Single Names: Waymo recalled 3,800-plus robotaxi systems; TTWO rose 3.4% after GTA VI pre-orders were set for June 25.

Intel jumps as BOE holds rates with two hike dissents

Risk tone improved on lower energy stress and a rates rebound, while company catalysts were dominated by Intel and BHP.• Chips: Intel rose more than 9% premarket after Trump said Apple agreed to work with it on US chip design and production; companies have not confirmed details.• UK Rates: BOE held at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with Greene joining Pill for a hike; it cut its Q4 peak-inflation estimate to 3.25% from 3.6%.• Oil/Hormuz: Three Saudi supertankers carrying about 6mn barrels crossed Hormuz, and Qatar returned an empty LNG tanker to Ras Laffan; US gasoline fell to $3.999/gallon.• Rates/Markets: Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.5%, while 30-year Treasury yields fell 5bp to 4.88%; traders still price a full Fed hike by October.• Miners: BHP fell 4% in London after raising Jansen phase-two costs by $2bn and taking a $2.3bn writedown.

Oil extends drop after Hormuz reopening prospects speed up

Oil supply normalization drove the main market move, while AI funding/talent and European autos added single-name risk.• Oil/Hormuz: WTI fell 2.4% to $74.96 and Brent fell 2.1% to $77.89 as traders priced a fast Strait of Hormuz reopening and 60 days of no-charge passage.• Energy Flows: Signal Group data showed 31 supertankers carrying about 62mn barrels stuck in the Persian Gulf; traders said Asian refiners are already well supplied.• AI/Tech: Meta is courting Wall Street and sovereign investors for outside AI capital, with planned US investment of $600bn by 2028 and AI capex up to $145bn this year.• AI/Talent: Google researcher Noam Shazeer is leaving Alphabet for OpenAI to lead AI architecture research.• Autos: BMW cut about 60% from its car-unit operating-profit forecast, citing China pressure; European peers also remain under stress.

Oil falls after US-Iran deal takes effect

Risk news was led by the Iran pact becoming effective, lower crude, and fresh mega-cap catalysts in Apple, Tesla and Microsoft.• Iran/Oil: US and Iranian officials said the interim deal was digitally signed and is in effect; WTI fell about 1% toward $76, though Hormuz reopening was still unclear.• Hormuz Terms: Iran’s lead negotiator said passage fees are established in the memorandum and suggested charges may start after the 60-day free period.• Apple/Chips: Tim Cook told WSJ price increases are unavoidable because DRAM and NAND costs have surged; TechInsights estimated iPhone Pro costs could rise by about $270.• Tesla: Elon Musk converted options on roughly 300mn Tesla shares, lifting his voting power to about 20%, with sale restrictions until 2028.• Microsoft/AI: Bloomberg said ByteDance is on track to spend more than $1bn annually on Microsoft AI and cloud services in China.

Stocks fall after Warsh Fed opens door to 2026 rate hikes

Markets repriced hawkishly after Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting, while the Iran agreement text became more concrete and a few single-name catalysts emerged.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but nine of 18 officials penciled in 2026 hikes; Warsh confirmed he submitted no dot and launched task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity/jobs and inflation.• Markets/FX: The S&P 500 closed down 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%; the two-year yield jumped 17bp to 4.22%, the dollar rose as much as 0.8%, and the yen weakened to 160.79 per dollar.• Iran/Oil: A US official released the MoU text, Iran state media matched it, and oil waivers were confirmed; Trump said the 60-day negotiation period is not a hard deadline.• Stocks: Apple is preparing a second-generation iPhone Air for spring 2027; Alkermes reported positive mid-stage narcolepsy data for alixorexton.

Oil pares gains after Trump says Iran deal may unlock frozen funds

Oil and Fed positioning dominated, with equities mixed before Warsh’s first decision and crude supply risk easing despite unresolved Iran terms.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the US-Iran MOU would be signed Thursday or Friday, not necessarily Wednesday, and said frozen Iranian funds would eventually have to be returned; he also threatened renewed bombing if a follow-on deal fails within 60 days.• Energy Flows: EIA crude stocks fell 8.3mn barrels versus a 3.5mn draw expected, but southern Iraq output jumped to 1.5mn-1.6mn b/d as tanker loadings resumed.• Renewables: The administration will refund Invenergy $765mn to cancel four offshore-wind leases, with funds redirected to gas and geothermal.• Space/Tech: SpaceX fell about 6%, dropping back below Amazon by market cap; ASTS rose after three satellites launched successfully.

Retail sales beat forecasts as Iran draft details deepen sanctions-relief dispute

Consumer data firmed ahead of Warsh’s first Fed decision, while the Iran deal tape stayed contradictory and several single-name catalysts hit financials, autos and defense.• Consumer: May retail sales rose 0.9% versus 0.5% expected, with ex-gas up 0.7%; pending-home sales rose 3.8%, the biggest gain since September 2024.• Iran/Oil: WSJ said a US draft includes blockade relief, oil waivers, sanctions relief, frozen-asset releases and at least $300bn for Iran; Trump denied immediate relief, saying signing is likely but not certain.• Energy Flows: Iraq is arranging tanker nominations to lift southern exports when Hormuz reopens; first-half June shipments were 1mn b/d versus 3.5mn before the war.• Single Stocks: CME named Lynne Fitzpatrick CEO from March 2027; CarMax fell as much as 9.4% on a fourth same-store sales decline; Trump may ask US defense firms to license missile production in Europe and Ukraine.

Trump disputes Iran fund as G7 targets China mineral reliance

Policy risk stayed fluid: Trump challenged a key reported Iran-deal sweetener and kept military threats alive, while critical-mineral and mobility headlines added single-stock catalysts.• Iran/Oil: Trump said reports of a $300bn Iran fund were false, said the MOU is not final and warned strikes could resume if Tehran does not “behave.” A third fully loaded Iranian crude tanker crossed the US blockade toward Asia.• Crude/Grades: US physical crude weakened as Middle Eastern barrels return; Magellan East Houston flipped to a WTI discount from an $8 premium, and Mars narrowed to a $1 premium from $18 in April.• Critical Minerals: G7 countries agreed to target a 60% cap on any single supplier of critical-mineral imports by 2030, a China-reliance push supportive of non-China miners.• Autos/Robotaxi: Uber plans Houston robotaxis with Lucid and Nuro in mid-2027, challenging Waymo.• Space/AI: FT said SpaceX will buy Cursor for $60bn in newly issued shares.

Oil stays pressured after US-Iran draft offers Iran $300 billion

Energy downside and global rate vigilance dominated, while AI demand kept feeding semiconductor-linked data and European autos absorbed another China shock.• Oil/Iran: Bloomberg saw a draft interim deal allowing Iran to resume crude and petrochemical exports immediately after Friday’s signing, with at least $300bn of financing planned and frozen assets released without a timetable; tanker owners repositioned toward Fujairah and Qatar moved LNG vessels back toward Ras Laffan.• Macro/Rates: UK CPI held at 2.8% in May versus 3% expected, though services inflation rose to 3.7%; Sweden held at 1.75% but raised the chance of a hike.• Semis/AI: Singapore electronics exports jumped a record nearly 95% to S$7.1bn, led by an 81% rise in integrated circuits.• Autos: BMW’s cut to guidance triggered an 11% share drop; Mercedes fell 4.9%, with VW, Stellantis and Volvo down about 3%.