Apr 28, 2026

Amazon rises on AI backlog as Trump reviews Germany troop levels

After-hours tech reactions diverged as investors rewarded AI demand at Amazon and Qualcomm but kept pressure on AI capex, while Washington escalated Fed and Iran-linked policy risks.• Amazon/AI: Amazon reversed to about 2.5% higher after Andy Jassy said AI revenue is tracking toward $15 billion this year; AWS grew 28% to $37.6 billion and backlog exceeds $460 billion including recent Anthropic capacity.• Chips/AI: Qualcomm rebounded 9% after CEO Cristiano Amon said it will ship custom chips to an unnamed AI hyperscaler this year, offsetting the earlier weak outlook.• Fed/Politics: Trump and Bessent publicly attacked Powell’s plan to remain a governor; Bessent called it a violation of Fed norms.• Geopolitics/Defense: CENTCOM requested the first deployment of the Army’s Dark Eagle hypersonic missile for possible Iran use; Trump said the US is reviewing 35,000 troops in Germany.

Powell stays on Fed board as Microsoft and Alphabet beat estimates

Late news shifted from the Fed decision to Powell’s transition and the first wave of megacap earnings, with rates staying under pressure and AI capex scrutiny still high.• Fed/Rates: Powell said he will remain a Fed governor after May 15, citing legal attacks on the Fed, and said guidance could move neutral as soon as June; CME odds put a 2026 hike at 11% versus a 2% cut chance.• Tech Earnings: Microsoft beat with $82.9 billion of revenue and 39% Azure growth, while Alphabet beat on $94.7 billion ex-TAC revenue; both rose after hours.• AI Spending: Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125 billion-$145 billion from $115 billion-$135 billion, sending shares about 7% lower despite a revenue beat.• Chips/Autos: Qualcomm fell after a below-consensus outlook tied to memory shortages; Ford raised 2026 adjusted Ebit guidance to $8.5 billion-$10.5 billion.

Oil nears $120 after Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz offer

Oil and rates remained the main cross-asset pressure points, with the blockade hardening and fuel inflation feeding through before the Fed decision.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose more than 7% to above $119.50, its highest since 2022, after Trump told Axios he rejected Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz and would keep the blockade until a nuclear deal.• Rates/Macro: Treasury yields rose 4-6 bp; the 10-year reached 4.412% and the 30-year neared 5% as traders largely dropped 2026 cut bets.• Defense/Budget: The Pentagon put the Iran war cost at $25 billion for the first time, while Hegseth defended a $1.45 trillion 2027 budget request and sought more spending through reconciliation.• Deals/Travel: Brown-Forman fell as much as 11% after ending Pernod Ricard deal talks; Uber added Expedia hotel inventory and future Vrbo rentals to its app.

Warsh clears Senate panel as Brent climbs near $115

Rates, macro and oil risk led, while earnings drove sharp single-name moves and biotech M&A added support.• Rates/Fed: Kevin Warsh won Senate Banking Committee backing in a 13-11 party-line vote, setting up a full Senate vote before Powell’s May 15 chair-term expiry.• Macro/Housing: Housing starts rose 10.8% in March to a 1.5 million annual pace, and core capital-goods orders climbed 3.3%, the most since 2020.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent was quoted around $115, while the IAEA said Iran could access near weapons-grade uranium buried at bombed sites; European jet fuel topped $200 a barrel.• Earnings: Robinhood fell nearly 12% after an EPS miss and a 47% drop in crypto-trading revenue; GE HealthCare dropped after cutting guidance.• M&A/Biotech: KalVista agreed to be bought by Chiesi for $27 a share cash, a roughly 40% premium.

Fed holds with four dissents as Brent rises on extended-blockade report

Policy and energy risks dominated, with the Fed split and blockade expectations keeping inflation pressure in focus; single-name news was mixed.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but NYT reported four dissents, the most since 1992: Miran wanted a cut, while Hammack, Logan and Kashkari wanted a less dovish signal.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 3% above $107 after WSJ reported Trump told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.• Shipping/Oil: Japan confirmed a Japan-linked vessel transited Hormuz, a limited easing signal that sits against reports of a longer US blockade.• Tech/Regulation: The EU issued preliminary findings that Meta failed to keep under-13 users off Facebook and Instagram.• Health Care: Biogen revenue beat on Leqembi growth, while Humana beat EPS and affirmed full-year guidance.

Kone buys TK Elevator as China halts new robotaxi permits

Overnight news added deal activity and sharper China regulatory risk, while European bank earnings were broadly supportive and global auto results stayed weak.• M&A/Industrials: Finland’s Kone agreed to buy TK Elevator for €29.4 billion, including debt, in a cash-and-stock deal expected to close no earlier than 2Q27 pending regulatory approvals.• China/Autonomy: China suspended new level-four autonomous-vehicle permits after a Baidu Apollo Go outage in Wuhan stranded passengers; Baidu’s Wuhan operations were suspended during the probe, while Pony AI and WeRide said services continue normally.• Banks/Earnings: UBS beat with $3.04 billion of profit and signaled buybacks above its $3 billion target; Deutsche Bank and Santander also topped estimates.• Autos/Earnings: Mercedes, Geely and Volvo reported profit pressure from weak China demand and tougher EV competition; Mercedes plans to cut global capacity by more than 10%.

Gulf states reject Iran’s Hormuz control as Booking slides on Middle East guidance

Geopolitical risk stayed bid into the evening, while after-hours earnings created sharp single-name moves and travel exposed direct demand damage from the Middle East conflict.• Gulf/Oil: The GCC rejected Iran’s claimed control of Hormuz and opposed transit fees, saying aggression against any member would be treated as aggression against all.• Rates/Oil: Treasury options traders added hedges for long yields above 5%; the 30-year yield reached 4.97% as oil-driven inflation fears built before the Fed.• Travel/Earnings: Booking fell as much as 10% late after guiding second-quarter revenue growth to 4%-6%, far below the 11% consensus, citing Middle East disruptions.• Consumer/Earnings: Starbucks beat with 6.2% comparable-sales growth and 50c adjusted EPS; Visa beat at $3.31 EPS with revenue up 17%.• Chips/Telecom: NXP jumped more than 10% after second-quarter revenue guidance topped estimates; T-Mobile raised full-year account-addition guidance.

Amazon adds OpenAI models as Treasury warns Chinese refiners

AI platform competition broadened while energy-security pressure stayed acute, with company-specific moves adding sharper equity dispersion into the close.• AI/Cloud: Amazon said AWS will offer OpenAI models after Microsoft gave up exclusive resale rights; AWS will preview some models Tuesday, with the most powerful GPT models due in coming weeks.• Energy/Sanctions: Treasury warned financial institutions they face secondary-sanctions risk for supporting Chinese independent refiners that buy Iranian oil, mainly in Shandong province.• Energy/Shipping: U.S. Marines stopped, searched and released the M/V Blue Star III in the Arabian Sea; Centcom said U.S. forces have redirected 39 ships since the blockade began.• Biotech: Erasca fell as much as 55% after disclosing a patient death following severe side effects in an early-stage cancer-drug trial.• Defense/AI: Google allowed Pentagon use of its AI for classified work, but separately withdrew from a drone-swarm contest after an ethics review.

Consumer confidence rises as Iran asserts Hormuz authority

Macro data offered some support, but Gulf legal escalation, AI-capex pressure and private-credit cracks kept risk appetite uneven.• Macro/Consumers: Conference Board confidence rose to 92.8 in April from 92.2, beating the 89 consensus as labor-market expectations improved.• Energy/Geopolitics: Iran’s UN mission said Tehran is not bound by the Law of the Sea treaty and has authority over Hormuz; Trump claimed Iran said it is in a “State of Collapse.”• Fuel/Oil: AAA said US regular gasoline rose 6 cents to $4.18 a gallon, a wartime high; Brent was little changed near $104 after UAE-exit analysis.• AI/Cloud: OpenAI called growth concerns “prime clickbait,” but Oracle fell nearly 4% and CoreWeave more than 5%; Amazon launched AI office tools.• Credit: Ares Capital EPS missed by 1c, non-payment risk rose to 3.1%, and BofA forecast record May IG issuance near $190 billion.

UAE leaves OPEC as Nasdaq futures fall on OpenAI concerns

Oil news turned two-sided: physical Hormuz stress kept prompt crude bid, but the UAE’s exit from OPEC added a medium-term supply shock. AI-linked risk spread from equities into credit.• Oil/OPEC: The UAE said it will leave OPEC on May 1 and gradually raise production, weakening the cartel’s cohesion.• Energy/Shipping: Lloyd’s said Hormuz transits fell to 35 last week from 78; front-month Brent traded above $112, while a Japanese tanker crossed with Iranian permission.• AI/Credit: Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 1%; CoreWeave and Oracle dropped more than 5%, and CoreWeave’s 2031 bond hit a record low at 98.63.• Earnings/Consumer: GM raised its EBIT outlook by $500 million, Coca-Cola beat on 10% organic growth, while Kimberly-Clark flagged a $150 million-$170 million oil-cost risk.

Oil tops $110 after Trump says Iran response will come soon

Energy risk reasserted itself in early trading, while AI infrastructure names saw confirmed premarket pressure and European macro data reinforced inflation and credit concerns.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 2.3% above $110 after the White House said Trump would address Iran’s Hormuz proposal “very soon.”• Shipping/Energy: Satellite and vessel data showed six to eight Iranian supertankers idling near Chabahar, while Adnoc offered some May cargoes via Fujairah and the Japan-linked Idemitsu Maru attempted a Hormuz exit with 2 million barrels.• AI/Software: OpenAI-linked stocks extended declines after the WSJ report on missed targets; CoreWeave, Oracle and AMD fell about 3% premarket, while SoftBank dropped as much as 11% in Tokyo.• Energy/Earnings: BP adjusted net income more than doubled to $3.2 billion, beating the $2.67 billion consensus, helped by “exceptional” oil trading.• Europe/Macro: ECB one-year consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.0% from 2.5%, and corporate credit standards tightened the most since 2023.

Yen gains after BOJ split vote signals higher rates

Overnight flow added a hawkish Japan rate signal, tentative evidence of limited Gulf energy movement and fresh AI-spending scrutiny, leaving the macro tone less one-way than Monday’s oil-led inflation trade.• Japan/Rates: The BOJ held at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote, raised its fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8% and cut growth to 0.5%; the yen firmed near 159 per dollar as June hike odds rose to 74%.• Energy/Shipping: Ship-tracking data showed the Mubaraz LNG tanker had exited the Gulf, the first apparent LNG cargo through Hormuz since the war began; China’s state refiners sought May permits to resume gasoline and diesel exports.• AI/Chips: WSJ reported OpenAI missed 2026 monthly sales goals and its 1 billion weekly-user target; Advantest fell as much as 6.9% after guidance missed, while Japan’s Qatar helium imports dropped 81% in March.• Software/Activism: Dynatrace rose more than 6% after WSJ reported Starboard became a top-five holder and pressed for AI execution.

Oil holds gains after Trump balks at Iran’s Hormuz proposal

Energy risk stayed the main macro overhang, but megacap tech kept indexes near highs; several regulatory and deal items added single-name risk.• Iran/Oil: Trump told advisers he was not satisfied with Iran’s Hormuz proposal, though talks continue; Brent settled up 2.8% at $108.23 and WTI traded near $96.• Energy/Shipping: Marsh said some insurers now require Iranian-approved routes for Hormuz war-risk cover, with rates at 3%-8% of ship value versus 0.25% in peacetime.• Oil Supply: Kpler said Iran has only 12-22 days of unused crude storage and may need another 1.5 million b/d output cut by mid-May.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged to records as Nvidia rose 4%, offsetting consumer weakness.• Media/M&A: Paramount asked the FCC to approve Warner Bros. funding with Middle East state investors taking 38.5% of equity but no votes.

Treasuries slide after Rubio rejects Iranian control of Hormuz

Oil-linked inflation risk again pushed into rates, while consumer weakness and fresh regulatory pressure hit select equities.• Rates/Oil: Treasuries fell despite stronger two- and five-year auctions, lifting 10-year yields to 4.33%, as elevated oil prices offset demand for duration.• Hormuz/Policy: Rubio said the U.S. cannot tolerate Iran controlling Hormuz or charging tolls; Trump discussed Tehran’s reopening proposal with his security team, and the U.S. called at the U.N. for a maritime-freedom coalition.• Restaurants/Consumer: Domino’s fell about 10% after cutting U.S. same-store sales expectations, citing weaker March demand, low-income pressure and heavier promotional competition.• Agriculture/Inflation: CRU said more than half of Middle East urea output may be lost, with 44 fertilizer vessels stuck in the Gulf, raising food-inflation risk.• Tech/Regulation: EU officials proposed forcing Android to give rival AI services deeper access; Google warned of higher costs and weaker privacy protections.

Microsoft resets OpenAI pact as Hormuz traffic falls to near zero

AI and energy risk dominated the morning, with a major Microsoft-OpenAI contract reset, new evidence of a near-shut Hormuz, and several sharp single-name reactions before the open.• AI/Cloud: Microsoft said it will stop sharing revenue with OpenAI and that the partnership will no longer be exclusive, as OpenAI adds cloud partners including Amazon.• Oil/Geopolitics: Bloomberg tracking showed no incoming Hormuz vessels and only three Iran-linked ships leaving the Gulf Monday; two Iran-linked tankers boarded by the US last week are sailing west.• Semis/AI: Qualcomm rose about 14% premarket after analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said industry checks suggested OpenAI is working with Qualcomm and MediaTek on smartphone processors; the companies have not confirmed it.• Biotech: Intellia rose after a late-stage Crispr therapy cut hereditary-angioedema attacks by 87% over six months.• Telecom: Verizon gained after first-quarter phone additions turned positive and guidance improved.

China blocks Meta AI deal as Nissan avoids operating loss

Company-specific news was the cleaner overnight signal, while energy risk remained elevated without a confirmed diplomatic breakthrough.• Tech/AI: China’s NDRC ordered Meta to cancel its $2 billion acquisition of agentic-AI startup Manus, citing scrutiny of foreign investment and tech exports; Meta had no immediate comment.• Autos: Nissan now expects a ¥50 billion full-year operating profit instead of a ¥60 billion loss, while Toyota said March global sales fell 5.8% to 983,126 units.• Energy/Big Oil: BP is up about 20% since Feb. 28 versus Exxon down about 2%; Bloomberg said Exxon and Chevron face about $7 billion in first-quarter mark-to-market losses.• China/Oil: Hengli Petrochemical denied Iran-trade allegations after US sanctions; shares fell nearly 10% and at least two Asian clients canceled orders.• Crypto/Markets: Bitcoin rose as much as 1.6% to $79,488, a 12-week high, on Iran-deal optimism.