Apr 7, 2026

Oil rebounds after Iran sets Hormuz tolls

Energy risk re-firmed after the cease-fire failed to normalize Gulf shipping, while US stocks still closed with a relief rally.• Hormuz/Oil: WSJ reported Iran told mediators it would cap Hormuz crossings near a dozen ships a day and require tolls in crypto or yuan; Kpler saw no oil or gas tankers cross after the cease-fire.• Markets/Energy: WTI closed near $98 after a more than $7 intraday swing, then gained about $2 post-settlement; Saudi Arabia said attacks cut oil-production capacity by about 600,000 barrels a day.• Lebanon/Truce: Lebanon’s civil defense said Israeli strikes killed more than 254 people and wounded more than 700; Israel later said Hezbollah rockets were intercepted.• Companies: Constellation guided organic beer sales to down 1% to up 1%, below the 2.2% consensus; FedEx pilots reached a tentative deal with nearly 40% pay increases this year.

Cease-fire frays after Iran alleges US violations

Geopolitical risk re-widened as Washington and Tehran publicly diverged on what the cease-fire covers, while rates got a separate bid from cautious Fed minutes and muni buying.• Iran/Hormuz: The White House called reports that Hormuz was closed false and said traffic had increased, but would not say who controls the strait; it also said tolls were not accepted policy.• Truce/Lebanon: Iran’s Ghalibaf said three clauses were violated, including Lebanon’s exclusion, a drone incursion and US opposition to enrichment, making talks “meaningless”; he did not formally quit talks.• Diplomacy/NATO: Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are set for Islamabad talks Saturday, while Leavitt said Trump would discuss a possible NATO exit with Mark Rutte.• Rates/Oil: Fed minutes showed officials split between war-driven inflation and labor risks; 10-year munis rallied 9 bp, while North Sea crude premiums hit records.

Oil pares losses after Iran halts Hormuz tanker transits

Relief trades held in equities, but cease-fire mechanics deteriorated around Hormuz and Lebanon while lower oil hit energy-linked winners.• Hormuz/Truce: Iran’s Fars said oil-tanker passage through Hormuz was halted after Israeli strikes on Lebanon; WSJ said Iran made Islamabad talks and reopening the strait conditional on a Lebanon cease-fire.• Gulf Attacks: UAE reported 17 Iranian missiles and 35 drones since the cease-fire began; Qatar said it was hit by seven ballistic missiles and drones, and Saudi Arabia intercepted nine drones.• Saudi/Energy: People familiar told Bloomberg the East-West pipeline damage was limited and contained, with no shutdown, reversing earlier concern about a partial shutdown.• Markets/Positioning: Goldman said hedge funds covered US equity shorts at the fastest pace since March 2020; S&P 500 opened 2.6% higher and Nasdaq 3.2%.• Single Stocks: Meta rose 6% after debuting its closed Muse Spark AI model; CF fell about 9% as fertilizer war premiums unwound.

Oil risk resurfaces after Saudi pipeline is hit by drone

Cease-fire relief remained visible, but fresh attacks and unresolved shipping rules kept the energy unwind from looking clean.• Saudi/Energy: Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline to the Red Sea was hit by a drone around 1 p.m. local time, with damage still being assessed; Aramco declined comment.• Hormuz/Shipping: Hormuz remained largely blocked, with seven ships exiting versus roughly 135 daily peacetime transits and more than 800 freighters stuck in the Gulf.• Markets/FX: Brent settled down 13% at $94.75 and WTI fell 16% to $94.41, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 1.04% and the VIX slid to 20.18.• Companies: Exxon flagged a 6% production hit and $3.5 billion-$4.9 billion of trading-timing drag; Delta projected a $2 billion fuel-cost hit through June.

Cease-fire frays after Iran attacks Kuwait energy facilities

Relief trades held, but cease-fire implementation looked shakier after new attacks and tighter Iranian control signals around Hormuz.• Gulf/Energy: Kuwait said it engaged 28 Iranian drones targeting oil facilities and power stations from 8 a.m. local time; authorities cited limited damage to oil, power and desalination sites.• Iran/Refining: Iran’s oil ministry said the Lavan refinery was attacked around 10 a.m. local time and crews were fighting a fire; no casualties were reported.• Hormuz/Shipping: The IRGC navy radioed anchored vessels that they still need Iranian permission to transit or “will be destroyed,” while data showed 426 tankers, 34 LPG carriers and 19 LNG vessels in the Gulf.• Rates/Equities: Fed-cut odds by December rose to 43% from 14%; energy was the only negative S&P sector, with VG down more than 10% and FANG/OXY off more than 5%.

European stocks surge while Lebanon dispute tests Iran truce

The relief rally reached Europe, but implementation risks shifted from the cease-fire headline to shipping mechanics, Lebanon and still-elevated fuel costs.• Europe/Rates: The Stoxx Europe 600 opened up 3.8%, Germany’s DAX rose 5%, and 10-year gilt yields fell as much as 21 bp as energy prices dropped.• Hormuz/Shipping: Petronas said an Iraqi crude tanker cleared Hormuz for Malaysia, while two ships were tracked attempting the first exits since the cease-fire announcement.• Lebanon/Truce: Israel ordered Tyre residents to evacuate after strikes near Lebanese medical sites; Iran said Washington must choose between a cease-fire or continued war via Israel.• Energy/Airlines: European gas futures fell as much as 20%, but IATA warned jet-fuel supplies may take months to normalize.• Single Stocks: Shell said first-quarter oil trading was significantly higher than the prior quarter.

Nasdaq futures jump after Israel narrows Iran truce scope

Risk rally broadened in Asia and US tech futures, but the truce remained fragile as Israel limited its scope and shipping access looked conditional.• Markets/Asia: Nasdaq futures extended gains to 3%; Nikkei was up 5%, Kospi rose as much as 6.2%, Hang Seng gained 2.5%, and MSCI EM climbed 3.7%.• Geopolitics/Lebanon: Netanyahu backed the two-week US-Iran pause but said it excludes Lebanon, contradicting Pakistan; WSJ said Israel was still striking Iran after Iranian missile waves.• Shipping/Energy: AP said Iran and Oman may charge Hormuz transit fees; WSJ reported a tiered “Tehran Toll Booth,” with at least 35 large ships paying $1m+.• Commodities: Gasoil plunged as much as 23%, Asian LNG prices were set to fall, and soybean-oil futures dropped 5% as cheaper crude hit biofuel demand.• Single Stocks/Credit: Bain’s Bridge Data Centres replaced Megaspeed at a 68.4MW Malaysian hub after a US probe into possible Nvidia chip smuggling; Moody’s cut Blue Owl Credit Income’s outlook to negative.

Oil plunges after US and Iran agree two-week cease-fire

Oil shock reversed and risk assets rallied after Trump, Iran and mediators moved to a conditional two-week cease-fire, but Hormuz access and continued regional attacks kept the deal fragile.• Geopolitics/Energy: Trump suspended attacks on Iran for two weeks; Iran said safe Hormuz passage would be possible via coordination with its armed forces if attacks stop, while the Pentagon halted offensive operations.• Markets/Rates: WTI fell as much as 17% below $100, Brent opened down as much as 16% to $91.70, S&P futures rose more than 2%, and two-year Treasury yields fell 7 bp to 3.72%.• Deal Terms: Iran’s published 10-point plan seeks sanctions relief, uranium enrichment rights, U.S. force withdrawals and compensation; Washington said in-person talks are not final, while Iran said Islamabad talks start Friday.• Security/Cyber: Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Israel reported Iranian missiles or drones after the announcement; a pro-Iran group claimed DDoS attacks on Chime and Pinterest.

Stocks turn higher after Pakistan seeks Iran deadline extension

Risk tone improved late but remained headline-driven, with diplomacy reports conflicting with fresh infrastructure and cyber risks before Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each closed up about 0.1% after Pakistan asked Trump for a two-week extension and urged Iran to reopen Hormuz; Brent settled down 0.5% at $109.27, while May WTI rose 0.5% to $112.95.• Diplomacy/Geopolitics: The White House said Trump was aware of Pakistan’s request and would respond; Trump told Fox the U.S. was in “heated negotiations,” while NYT said Iranian officials reported no indirect talks.• Cyber/Infrastructure: CISA warned IRGC-linked hackers were targeting U.S. water, energy and government systems, with unspecified disruptions.• War/Commodities: Iranian media said Israeli strikes hit petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh and Mahshahr and an aluminum plant in Arak; damage was unclear.• Single Stocks: Kimberly-Clark fell 4.1% after an arson fire at an Ontario distribution center; Levi raised its full-year outlook.

Dated Brent hits record after Iran rejects temporary cease-fire

Physical oil stress intensified and diplomacy looked shakier, though equities trimmed losses on a report of a “glimmer” of progress in U.S.-Iran talks.• Oil/Geopolitics: Dated Brent hit a record $144.42, with 12 unanswered North Sea cargo bids; May WTI rose as much as 4.6% to $117.63 while June WTI was near $98.89.• Diplomacy/Hormuz: Russia and China vetoed Bahrain’s UN resolution encouraging defensive coordination to reopen Hormuz; Iran’s UN envoy rejected any temporary cease-fire.• Gulf Security: The IRGC texted Iranians that it could deprive U.S. allies of regional oil and gas “for years”; Kuwait ordered residents home overnight.• Markets/Macro: The S&P 500 improved to about -0.3% from more than -1% lower after Axios reported negotiation progress; the IMF said it will cut global growth forecasts.• Single Stocks: Apple rose after Bloomberg said the foldable iPhone remains on track for September; Lockheed gained on a proposed $2 billion AIM-260 missile budget boost.

Stocks fall after Iran cuts off direct US talks

Risk assets weakened as the Iran deadline approached, with diplomacy deteriorating, infrastructure strikes widening and energy-driven inflation pressure showing up in rates.• Geopolitics/Energy: WSJ said Iran cut direct communications with the U.S. after Trump’s threat, though mediator talks continued; NYT separately reported Iran told Pakistan it would stop cease-fire talks.• War/Infrastructure: Netanyahu confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian railways and bridges; Israel said it hit eight bridge segments, while Iranian media reported deaths at the Kashan railway bridge.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 fell as much as 0.8%, WTI rose as much as 4.6%, and Treasury yields climbed up to 5 bp before a $58 billion three-year auction.• Macro/Rates: The New York Fed said one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.0%.• Single Stocks: Apple fell about 4% on reported foldable-phone delays; Intel rose as much as 4.9% after joining Musk’s Terafab project.

US hits Kharg military targets after Trump escalates Iran threat

Risk tone deteriorated into the U.S. open as Kharg strikes and Trump’s latest warning outweighed earlier de-escalation hopes; select health-care deal news added stock-specific catalysts.• Geopolitics/Energy: WSJ reported the U.S. struck more than 50 military targets on Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export hub, but did not hit oil infrastructure.• Policy/War: Trump posted that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not agree by 8 p.m. ET; Vance said the Kharg strikes did not mark a strategy change.• Markets/Shipping: S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% and Nasdaq futures 0.7%; Brent slid 1.7% to $108 after touching $111.80, while UKMTO said a container ship was hit near Kish Island.• Health Care: Novo priced high-dose Wegovy at $399 a month, undercutting Lilly; Gilead agreed to buy Tubulis for up to $5 billion.

NYT reports two-week Iran cease-fire as Ackman bids for Universal Music

A reported cease-fire offer briefly changed the risk setup, but other feeds still showed active strikes and pre-deadline positioning.• Energy/Geopolitics: NYT reported the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week cease-fire, U.S. strikes stopped and Iran would allow coordinated safe passage through Hormuz; Israel backed the pause but said Lebanon was excluded, contradicting Pakistan’s broader claim.• Gulf Security: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted missiles and drones, with debris near energy facilities and a reported fire at SABIC’s Jubail complex; the Bahrain causeway closed temporarily.• Markets/Crypto: Before the cease-fire report, S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq futures 0.6%, bitcoin slid as much as 2.2% to about $68,800 and WTI traded near $115.• Deals/Media: Ackman’s Pershing offered €9.4 billion cash plus shares for Universal Music and a NYSE listing; UMG was set for its biggest-ever gain.• Health Insurers: Major insurers said they removed about 11% of prior-authorization requirements, equal to roughly 6.5 million fewer requests.

Brent rises after US prepares potential Iran energy strikes

Energy risk stayed bid after strike planning moved closer to Iran’s oil-and-power complex, with Asian markets still firmer.• Energy/Geopolitics: U.S. officials said military planners are preparing options for potential strikes on Iranian energy targets if Trump orders an escalation.• Gulf Security: The UAE said it was contending with Iranian missile and drone attacks; Bahrain sounded sirens for a second time since midnight.• Markets/Energy: Brent rose 1% to $110.80, while Topix gained 0.4%, Kospi 1.1% and Australia’s ASX 200 1.7%.• LNG/Shipping: Traders said no LNG carrier has crossed Hormuz for weeks, with more than a dozen loaded tankers idling in the Gulf.• Energy/Policy: Trump floated seizing Iranian oil, though a White House official said there are no formal plans.

Medicare insurers jump as Saudi Arabia intercepts missiles near energy facilities

After-hours risk rotated toward managed care and AI infrastructure, while fresh Gulf missile activity kept energy-security risk elevated.• Managed Care: CMS finalized a 2.48% Medicare Advantage rate increase for 2027, worth an estimated $13 billion; UNH rose 8.5%-9.9% after hours, HUM gained 11%-12.6% and CVS rose about 8%.• Gulf Security: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted seven ballistic missiles aimed at its eastern region, with debris falling near energy facilities; Kuwait reported 14 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and 46 drones over 24 hours.• AI Chips: Broadcom confirmed a long-term deal with Google to supply TPUs to Anthropic, with access to about 3.5 gigawatts of compute starting in 2027.• Energy/Refining: Phillips 66 estimated nearly $1 billion of first-quarter losses on short commodity derivatives, though physical inventory gains may offset some impact.

Oil settles higher after Hegseth signals heavier Iran strikes

War risk drove crude back up, though equities stabilized after Trump mixed explicit escalation threats with claims that talks were progressing.• War/Oil: Hegseth said Monday would bring the largest US strike volume since Day One and Tuesday even more; WTI settled up 0.8% at $112.41.• Iran/Deadline: Trump threatened to destroy every Iranian bridge and power plant within four hours after Tuesday’s 8 p.m. deadline, but said negotiations were “going fine.”• Hormuz/Policy: Trump said any deal must include “free traffic of oil” through Hormuz and floated US tolls on ships; Britain will host planners from 40-plus countries Tuesday.• Rescue/Defense: Officials said the airman rescue used 155 aircraft and about 100 2,000-pound bombs; the Pentagon gave few details on how Iran hit the F-15E.• Financials/Platforms: BNY and Robinhood will help run federal child savings “Trump accounts”; Kalshi won a federal appeals ruling pre-empting New Jersey oversight.

Oil jumps after Iran rejects 45-day cease-fire proposal

Crude risk rose again as diplomacy narrowed, while fresh inflation data and transport-cost pressure complicated the rates backdrop.• Iran/Diplomacy: Iran rejected a 45-day cease-fire and sent a 10-point counterproposal seeking a permanent end to the war, sanctions relief and a Hormuz safe-passage protocol; Trump called it significant but “not good enough.”• Oil/War: Trump said another deadline extension was “highly unlikely,” and FT reported oil jumped after he renewed threats to take out Iran’s “entire country.”• Energy/Infrastructure: Strikes at Asaluyeh shut Iranian petrochemical plants; Israel said sites responsible for 85% of Iran’s petrochemical exports are now offline.• Macro/Inflation: ISM services fell to 54, but prices paid jumped to 70.7, the highest since October 2022; US truck fuel surcharges hit the highest since 2022.• Private Credit: Barings capped withdrawals after 11.3% redemption requests, while Goldman’s fund met 4.999% requests and added $1.04 billion of subscriptions.

Qatar LNG tankers turn back as Saudi raises oil prices to records

Futures edged higher and crude eased on cease-fire hopes, but physical energy stress worsened as Qatar’s LNG exit failed and Saudi pricing reset records.• Hormuz/LNG: Bloomberg counted 21 weekend ship transits, the most since early in the war, but loaded QatarEnergy tankers Al Daayen and Rasheeda reversed after trying to exit.• Oil/Pricing: Saudi Aramco set May Arab Light for Asia at a record $19.50 over Oman-Dubai; Europe premiums rose to $24-$30 over Brent.• Markets/War: S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%-0.3% and WTI slipped near $110 after cease-fire reports; Iran confirmed only message exchanges.• War/Escalation: Israel said it killed IRGC intelligence chief Seyed Majid Khademi and struck another Iranian petrochemical factory; UAE reported intercepting 33 Iranian missiles and drones.• Biotech: Neurocrine agreed to buy Soleno for $2.9 billion; SLNO rose as much as 39% premarket and NBIX fell 2.8%.

WTI reaches $115 as Qatar LNG tankers test Hormuz

Energy news remained the dominant cross-asset driver, with crude strength tempered by tentative signs of limited cargo movement through Hormuz.• Oil/Markets: WTI rose to about $115 versus Thursday’s $111.54 close; AAA put regular gasoline at $4.11 and diesel at $5.61.• LNG/Hormuz: Two loaded Qatari LNG tankers appeared headed for Hormuz, potentially the first exports outside the Gulf since the war began, while more than four dozen empty Qatari tankers idled in Asia.• Iraq/Oil: SOMO told buyers Iraqi crude is exempt from Hormuz restrictions and requested lifting schedules within 24 hours.• Gulf/Energy: Kataib Hezbollah threatened the “complete destruction” of regional oil and gas facilities if the U.S. forces Hormuz open.• Fertilizer/Airlines: India tendered for 2.5 million tons of urea, and AirAsia X said fares rose as much as 40% after jet fuel doubled.