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Nasdaq rallies after Hormuz reopening sinks oil
Risk appetite recovered into the close as the market treated the Gulf supply shock as fading, even as rates desks moved sharply toward a nearer Fed hike. The rotation favored mega-cap tech and select AI/chip stories, while energy gave back war-premium gains and services IT spending raised a separate demand warning.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent ended near $79.85, about 9% lower on the week, after Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and UAE-linked flow signals pointed to normalized Gulf loadings and the US blockade on Iranian ports ended. Iran’s new Strait Authority kept future fee risk alive, but 60 days of waived charges capped the stress.• Rates/Macro: Treasury futures volumes surged and swaps moved July Fed-hike odds toward 50%, while jobless claims stayed near expectations. The hawkish repricing supported the dollar and pressured gold targets.• Equity Tape: The Nasdaq closed up 1.9% and the S&P 500 rose 1.1% as lower energy risk outweighed the rates move.• Chips/AI: Intel jumped after Trump said Apple would work with it on US chip design and production, while Amazon explored external Trainium sales and Meta expanded compute commitments.• Single Names: Accenture suffered a record intraday drop after revenue guidance missed, while Moderna gained after an FDA panel backed its mRNA flu shot.
Nasdaq jumps after US-Iran deal lowers oil
Risk recovered into the holiday close, but Hormuz administration, Fed repricing and AI funding needs kept caveats around the rally.• Markets/Oil: Nasdaq closed up 1.9% and S&P 500 up 1.1%; Brent finished at $79.85, about 9% lower on the week, and AAA gasoline fell below $4.• Hormuz: Iran said commercial ships must request passage through its new Persian Gulf Strait Authority; fees remain waived for 60 days, but shippers warned future charges are still possible.• SpaceX Credit: Moody’s rated SpaceX Baa1, S&P BBB and Fitch BBB+; FT said a $20bn 10-year bond could price 135-150bp over Treasuries.• AI/Meta: Meta signed new Crusoe compute deals for Texas and Missouri sites totaling about 1.6GW; timing and spending were not disclosed.• Biotech/Brokers: Moderna rose after an FDA panel unanimously backed its mRNA flu shot for ages 50-plus; Schwab warned of margin calls on long-short tax strategies.
Treasury traders price July Fed hike as Hormuz blockade ends
Nasdaq rebounded more than 1.5% despite a sharper repricing toward a July Fed hike, while confirmed Hormuz flows kept energy risk easing.• Rates: Treasury futures volume topped 500,000 contracts, four times average; swaps put July hike odds near 50%, from near zero before Warsh.• Hormuz/Oil: CENTCOM said the US blockade on Iranian ports ended; Vance said 12.5mn barrels moved through Hormuz in 24 hours.• SpaceX: Bankers are preparing investor calls as soon as Monday for a potential first investment-grade bond sale of at least $20bn.• AI/Chips: Amazon is discussing selling Trainium chips for use in other companies’ data centers; the third version is largely sold out.• Exchanges/Crypto: CME sued the CFTC to block Kalshi’s perpetual futures approval; the regulator called the lawsuit frivolous.
Accenture plunges after revenue outlook misses
US equities opened firmer on tech leadership, but the news mix added fresh pressure on consultants, oil producers and cloud platforms while labor data stayed steady.• Accenture: ACN fell as much as 19%, its worst intraday drop on record, after fourth-quarter revenue guidance missed consensus and bookings fell 2% to $19.3bn; management still cited AI transformation demand.• Oil/Hormuz: Kuwait said output will return to 2mn b/d within a week after repairs, and four Saudi tankers headed toward the Gulf of Oman; traders still reported quiet Hormuz traffic.• Macro/Rates: Initial jobless claims slipped 4,000 to 226,000, near estimates, while continuing claims rose to 1.81mn; September Fed-hike odds were cited at 64%.• Cloud/Regulation: EU preliminary findings may subject Azure and AWS to Digital Markets Act obligations as early as next week, with a final decision due by year-end.• Single Names: Waymo recalled 3,800-plus robotaxi systems; TTWO rose 3.4% after GTA VI pre-orders were set for June 25.
Intel jumps as BOE holds rates with two hike dissents
Risk tone improved on lower energy stress and a rates rebound, while company catalysts were dominated by Intel and BHP.• Chips: Intel rose more than 9% premarket after Trump said Apple agreed to work with it on US chip design and production; companies have not confirmed details.• UK Rates: BOE held at 3.75% in a 7-2 vote, with Greene joining Pill for a hike; it cut its Q4 peak-inflation estimate to 3.25% from 3.6%.• Oil/Hormuz: Three Saudi supertankers carrying about 6mn barrels crossed Hormuz, and Qatar returned an empty LNG tanker to Ras Laffan; US gasoline fell to $3.999/gallon.• Rates/Markets: Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.5%, while 30-year Treasury yields fell 5bp to 4.88%; traders still price a full Fed hike by October.• Miners: BHP fell 4% in London after raising Jansen phase-two costs by $2bn and taking a $2.3bn writedown.
Oil extends drop after Hormuz reopening prospects speed up
Oil supply normalization drove the main market move, while AI funding/talent and European autos added single-name risk.• Oil/Hormuz: WTI fell 2.4% to $74.96 and Brent fell 2.1% to $77.89 as traders priced a fast Strait of Hormuz reopening and 60 days of no-charge passage.• Energy Flows: Signal Group data showed 31 supertankers carrying about 62mn barrels stuck in the Persian Gulf; traders said Asian refiners are already well supplied.• AI/Tech: Meta is courting Wall Street and sovereign investors for outside AI capital, with planned US investment of $600bn by 2028 and AI capex up to $145bn this year.• AI/Talent: Google researcher Noam Shazeer is leaving Alphabet for OpenAI to lead AI architecture research.• Autos: BMW cut about 60% from its car-unit operating-profit forecast, citing China pressure; European peers also remain under stress.
Stocks fall after Warsh Fed signals 2026 hikes
US equities sold off into the close as Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting reset the rates debate in a more hawkish direction. The other cross-asset driver was the US-Iran interim pact, which shifted the oil tape from war-premium uncertainty toward supply normalization, even as Hormuz terms remained unresolved. After hours, the focus moved to confirmation that the deal was effective and to mega-cap cost and AI-demand read-throughs.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but nine of 18 officials penciled in 2026 hikes. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq lost 1.3%, the two-year yield jumped 17bp to 4.22%, and the dollar strengthened.• Iran/Oil: The US-Iran memorandum was released, matched by Iranian state media and later digitally signed. Oil waivers and frozen-fund relief pushed WTI lower, while resuming Iraqi loadings and a QatarEnergy LNG vessel heading toward Hormuz pointed to improving energy flows.• Consumer/Macro: Retail sales rose 0.9% versus 0.5% expected, and pending-home sales rose 3.8%, but the data reinforced the market’s hawkish Fed interpretation rather than supporting risk.• Mega-cap/AI: Apple faced margin concerns after Tim Cook cited unavoidable price increases from higher DRAM and NAND costs, while Microsoft benefited from ByteDance’s reported $1bn-plus annual AI and cloud spend.
Oil falls after US-Iran deal takes effect
Risk news was led by the Iran pact becoming effective, lower crude, and fresh mega-cap catalysts in Apple, Tesla and Microsoft.• Iran/Oil: US and Iranian officials said the interim deal was digitally signed and is in effect; WTI fell about 1% toward $76, though Hormuz reopening was still unclear.• Hormuz Terms: Iran’s lead negotiator said passage fees are established in the memorandum and suggested charges may start after the 60-day free period.• Apple/Chips: Tim Cook told WSJ price increases are unavoidable because DRAM and NAND costs have surged; TechInsights estimated iPhone Pro costs could rise by about $270.• Tesla: Elon Musk converted options on roughly 300mn Tesla shares, lifting his voting power to about 20%, with sale restrictions until 2028.• Microsoft/AI: Bloomberg said ByteDance is on track to spend more than $1bn annually on Microsoft AI and cloud services in China.
Stocks fall after Warsh Fed opens door to 2026 rate hikes
Markets repriced hawkishly after Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting, while the Iran agreement text became more concrete and a few single-name catalysts emerged.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but nine of 18 officials penciled in 2026 hikes; Warsh confirmed he submitted no dot and launched task forces on communications, the balance sheet, data, productivity/jobs and inflation.• Markets/FX: The S&P 500 closed down 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%; the two-year yield jumped 17bp to 4.22%, the dollar rose as much as 0.8%, and the yen weakened to 160.79 per dollar.• Iran/Oil: A US official released the MoU text, Iran state media matched it, and oil waivers were confirmed; Trump said the 60-day negotiation period is not a hard deadline.• Stocks: Apple is preparing a second-generation iPhone Air for spring 2027; Alkermes reported positive mid-stage narcolepsy data for alixorexton.
Oil pares gains after Trump says Iran deal may unlock frozen funds
Oil and Fed positioning dominated, with equities mixed before Warsh’s first decision and crude supply risk easing despite unresolved Iran terms.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the US-Iran MOU would be signed Thursday or Friday, not necessarily Wednesday, and said frozen Iranian funds would eventually have to be returned; he also threatened renewed bombing if a follow-on deal fails within 60 days.• Energy Flows: EIA crude stocks fell 8.3mn barrels versus a 3.5mn draw expected, but southern Iraq output jumped to 1.5mn-1.6mn b/d as tanker loadings resumed.• Renewables: The administration will refund Invenergy $765mn to cancel four offshore-wind leases, with funds redirected to gas and geothermal.• Space/Tech: SpaceX fell about 6%, dropping back below Amazon by market cap; ASTS rose after three satellites launched successfully.
Retail sales beat forecasts as Iran draft details deepen sanctions-relief dispute
Consumer data firmed ahead of Warsh’s first Fed decision, while the Iran deal tape stayed contradictory and several single-name catalysts hit financials, autos and defense.• Consumer: May retail sales rose 0.9% versus 0.5% expected, with ex-gas up 0.7%; pending-home sales rose 3.8%, the biggest gain since September 2024.• Iran/Oil: WSJ said a US draft includes blockade relief, oil waivers, sanctions relief, frozen-asset releases and at least $300bn for Iran; Trump denied immediate relief, saying signing is likely but not certain.• Energy Flows: Iraq is arranging tanker nominations to lift southern exports when Hormuz reopens; first-half June shipments were 1mn b/d versus 3.5mn before the war.• Single Stocks: CME named Lynne Fitzpatrick CEO from March 2027; CarMax fell as much as 9.4% on a fourth same-store sales decline; Trump may ask US defense firms to license missile production in Europe and Ukraine.
Trump disputes Iran fund as G7 targets China mineral reliance
Policy risk stayed fluid: Trump challenged a key reported Iran-deal sweetener and kept military threats alive, while critical-mineral and mobility headlines added single-stock catalysts.• Iran/Oil: Trump said reports of a $300bn Iran fund were false, said the MOU is not final and warned strikes could resume if Tehran does not “behave.” A third fully loaded Iranian crude tanker crossed the US blockade toward Asia.• Crude/Grades: US physical crude weakened as Middle Eastern barrels return; Magellan East Houston flipped to a WTI discount from an $8 premium, and Mars narrowed to a $1 premium from $18 in April.• Critical Minerals: G7 countries agreed to target a 60% cap on any single supplier of critical-mineral imports by 2030, a China-reliance push supportive of non-China miners.• Autos/Robotaxi: Uber plans Houston robotaxis with Lucid and Nuro in mid-2027, challenging Waymo.• Space/AI: FT said SpaceX will buy Cursor for $60bn in newly issued shares.
Oil stays pressured after US-Iran draft offers Iran $300 billion
Energy downside and global rate vigilance dominated, while AI demand kept feeding semiconductor-linked data and European autos absorbed another China shock.• Oil/Iran: Bloomberg saw a draft interim deal allowing Iran to resume crude and petrochemical exports immediately after Friday’s signing, with at least $300bn of financing planned and frozen assets released without a timetable; tanker owners repositioned toward Fujairah and Qatar moved LNG vessels back toward Ras Laffan.• Macro/Rates: UK CPI held at 2.8% in May versus 3% expected, though services inflation rose to 3.7%; Sweden held at 1.75% but raised the chance of a hike.• Semis/AI: Singapore electronics exports jumped a record nearly 95% to S$7.1bn, led by an 81% rise in integrated circuits.• Autos: BMW’s cut to guidance triggered an 11% share drop; Mercedes fell 4.9%, with VW, Stellantis and Volvo down about 3%.
Brent tumbles as SpaceX tops Amazon
Energy relief was the day’s dominant cross-asset impulse, with crude sliding as Iran-related supply and Hormuz restart assumptions improved despite lingering operational frictions. Equity attention rotated toward SpaceX’s first-day liquidity event and index impact, while late headlines pushed rates back into focus before the Fed decision.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent settled 5.1% lower at $78.96 and WTI stayed below $77 after Trump said Hormuz would remain toll-free and reports said Iran could sell oil immediately under waivers; transit counts improved but remained far below prewar norms.• Space/Index: SpaceX rose 4.8%, finished narrowly above Amazon by market value and traded about 1.8mn options contracts on its first day, with Nasdaq adding the stock at full market-cap weight.• Rates/Macro: BOJ raised rates to 1.00%, weak China data hit growth sentiment, and late reports said the Fed may remove cut-leaning language, with some officials open to hikes.• Single Names: Amazon faced potential FTC ad-pricing penalties, Yum rose on a Pizza Hut sale and buyback, and Lockheed gained after Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for munitions constraints.
Fed hike risk builds as PBOC signals overnight-rate shift
Rates and policy stayed the main market focus, while AI spending and financing continued to draw company-specific catalysts.• Fed/Rates: Reports ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting said officials are expected to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, remove cut-leaning language and show most policymakers favor no cuts this year, with some open to hikes.• China Policy: PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng signaled a possible shift toward the overnight rate, with temporary repo and reverse-repo rates set 25 basis points around the seven-day rate.• AI/Cloud: HSBC said it will use Google Cloud and DeepMind tools for more than 200 AI use cases over two years, targeting more than $100mn in revenue or efficiency gains per project.• SpaceX: Korean retail investors bought a net $796mn of SpaceX on its first trading day, according to depository data.• Insurance: Manulife pulled leveraged Hong Kong wealth-product financing after regulatory scrutiny, Bloomberg reported.
Brent closes below $79 as SpaceX finishes above Amazon
Oil relief persisted and SpaceX’s index impact became tangible, while regulators and Congress added fresh single-name risks.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent settled 5.1% lower at $78.96, the lowest since March 2; WTI held below $77 after a four-day, 16% slide. Windward counted 14 Hormuz transits Tuesday, the month’s high but far below the prewar 130 daily.• SpaceX: Shares finished 4.8% higher, narrowly above Amazon by market value. Cboe said about 1.8mn options contracts traded, and Nasdaq Composite has added SpaceX at its full market-cap weight.• Ads/FTC: Amazon faces a possible FTC ad-pricing and disclosure suit that could bring billions in civil penalties, Bloomberg reported.• Housing: A congressional housing deal would bar large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, pressuring INVH and AMH.• Crypto/Derivatives: Coinbase launched US index-linked perpetual futures with up to 20-times leverage; Kalshi said perpetuals generated more than $5.5bn in two weeks.
Iran oil waivers emerge as SpaceX options set first-day record
Risk appetite stayed bifurcated: energy relief broadened on reported Iranian oil-sale waivers, while megacap speculative flow concentrated in SpaceX and defense supply-chain news strengthened.• Iran/Oil: WSJ, citing people familiar, said the deal lets Iran sell oil and fuel immediately after signing, with banking, transport and insurance waivers; UANI said an Iranian supertanker crossed the US blockade.• Space/Options: SpaceX briefly overtook Amazon by market value; Cboe data showed about 927,000 options contracts traded by 11:30, topping Meta’s 2012 first-day record.• Defense/Industrials: Trump invoked the Defense Production Act for munitions constraints, and GM agreed to help Lockheed expand weapons production; Lockheed targets 2,000 PAC-3 MSE interceptors annually.• Macro/Autos: Import prices rose 1.9% in May, with semiconductor-related equipment up 3.6%; BMW cut auto-margin guidance to 1%-3% from 4%-6% on China and war pressure.
Brent drops below $80 after Trump says Hormuz will remain toll-free
Energy relief deepened, but operational details around Hormuz remained contested. Single-name catalysts broadened beyond oil, with SpaceX, Yum and Robinhood drawing premarket attention.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent fell below $80 for the first time since early March and WTI traded near $77.55. Trump said Hormuz will remain toll-free and pledged to release the Iran MOU, but European officials hesitated on mine-clearing support; a US official said traffic could take two weeks and an expert said clearance may take 30 days or more.• Space/AI: SpaceX formally agreed to buy AI-coding startup Cursor for $60bn in stock, with closing expected in 3Q; shares rose about 7%, putting it near an Amazon market-cap overtake.• Macro/Housing: US housing starts fell 15.4% in May to 1.18mn, below all surveyed estimates, as multifamily starts plunged 40.2%.• Restaurants: Yum agreed to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7bn and authorized an incremental $4bn buyback.• Fintech: Robinhood will cut about 10% of staff, or roughly 300 jobs; shares rose premarket.
SpaceX nears Amazon value as oil falls on unresolved Hormuz terms
Risk was mixed: SpaceX’s melt-up kept speculative momentum alive, while oil slipped despite disputed US-Iran implementation details.• Space/IPO: SpaceX rose about 10% premarket, nearing Amazon’s value; crypto perpetuals briefly implied $3tn after more than $50mn of shorts were liquidated, and the greenshoe lifted IPO proceeds to $86.2bn.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent fell below $82 and WTI neared $79. Goldman cut Brent/WTI to $85/$80 for 2026 and $75/$70 for 2027; Trump said the US will not fund Iran rebuilding, and Italy tied minesweepers to an implemented deal.• Chemicals/M&A: Olin and Huntsman agreed an all-stock merger; Huntsman fell 10% premarket because the exchange ratio valued it about 13% below Monday’s close.• Software/Sovereignty: France’s DGSI will replace Palantir tools with Chapsvision, extending Europe’s local-security-technology push.
Qatar targets LNG restart after Hormuz shipping remains stalled
Overnight news flow kept Middle East implementation risk alive, while autos and European banking added fresh sector catalysts.• Gulf/Energy: Two shipping companies told the NYT they had not resumed Hormuz crossings; Mitsui O.S.K. will wait for confirmed safety, while UKMTO said the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.• LNG: QatarEnergy expects output to reach about 50% of capacity one month after safe Hormuz passage resumes and 80% within two months, though two damaged trains may take years to restore.• Autos: BloombergNEF cut its 2030 US EV share forecast to 17% from 27%, citing policy rollbacks; it said automakers have delayed at least 27 models and booked about $64bn of EV losses.• BOJ/FX: Uchida said the BOJ will keep raising rates if warranted, but dollar-yen stayed above 160 and there was no 50bp proposal.• Banks/M&A: Germany rejected UniCredit’s €39bn Commerzbank offer, saying it lacked an appropriate premium.
BOJ lifts rates to 1% as China retail sales contract
Global macro news turned more mixed: Japan tightened without a disruptive market reaction, China’s May data weakened, and oil supply expectations kept resetting lower despite unresolved Hormuz implementation risk.• Japan/Rates: The BOJ raised its overnight rate 25bp to 1.00%, the highest since 1995, in a 7-1 vote and will hold JGB purchases near ¥2tn a month from April 2027; the yen traded near 160.2, while the Nikkei touched 70,000.• China/Macro: May retail sales fell 0.6% year on year, the first post-Covid decline, fixed-asset investment dropped 4.1% year to date and new-home prices fell 0.2% month on month.• Oil/Shipping: Morgan Stanley cut Brent forecasts to $90 in Q3 and $80 in Q4; Mitsui OSK’s CEO warned Hormuz transits may take weeks to normalize.• AI/Software: OpenAI reportedly spent $34bn in 2025 on $13bn of revenue and filed confidentially for an IPO; FT analysis challenged Palantir NHS performance claims.