May 26, 2026

US strikes Iran drone site after Tehran launches drones near Hormuz

Geopolitical risk re-emerged late as U.S. officials described fresh defensive strikes in southern Iran, tempering the earlier oil-relief tone. After-hours tech news was broadly constructive, led by AI data-center and PC demand, while the Fed kept energy-driven inflation risk in focus.• Middle East/Oil: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one-way drones over Hormuz and F/A-18s hit a Bandar Abbas drone-control station before a fifth launch; officials reported no casualties and called the action limited.• Semis/Hardware: Marvell rose as much as 9% after guiding 2Q revenue to about $2.7bn versus $2.6bn estimated; HPQ gained after its profit midpoint topped consensus despite higher memory costs.• Fed/Rates: Vice Chair Jefferson said policy is well positioned but inflation risks remain tilted upward from tariffs and energy, and he is watching for demand damage.• Tech/Contracts: Dell won a five-year $9.7bn Pentagon Microsoft-license contract, while Meta began rolling out $2.99-$3.99 monthly subscriptions for WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram.

Oil closes at one-month lows on Iran deal hopes

Risk appetite held even as policy signals stayed mixed: oil relief lifted equities, while late software earnings split AI beneficiaries from incumbents.• Markets/Oil: WTI settled down 5.5% at $88.68 and Brent fell 5.3% to $94.29, both lowest since April 17; the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed at records.• Hormuz/Iran: Ship tracking showed only two vessels entering the Gulf and none exiting. Trump said he was “not satisfied,” rejected Iran-Oman control and threatened Oman.• Cloud/AI: Snowflake jumped more than 25% after hours after raising FY product-revenue guidance to $5.84bn and signing a five-year, $6bn AWS Graviton chip deal.• Software: Salesforce slipped after guiding 2Q revenue to about $11.3bn, below the $11.4bn estimate, though Agentforce annual revenue reached $1.2bn.• Fed/Rates: Governor Cook said inflation risks remain tilted higher and she is prepared to raise rates if price pressure persists.

White House denies Iran draft after oil drops on deal hopes

Markets faded the Iran-deal rally as Washington rejected Iranian state-media claims, while aerospace, fintech and bank headlines drove single-name moves.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent briefly fell below $93 after IRIB described a Hormuz draft; the White House called it “not true” and a “complete fabrication,” while Kpler said crossings remained just two Monday.• Aerospace: Boeing said the FAA cleared a 737 Max ramp toward 47 jets a month from the 42 cap, with the higher rate expected within months.• Fintech/Crypto: SoFi opened SoFiUSD to nearly 15mn users and plans FDIC-covered tokenized deposits in 3Q; Robinhood launched AI-agent stock trading.• Banks: JPMorgan fell nearly 3% after Dimon guided expenses closer to $106bn, though he also said the bank could deploy $10bn-$20bn on deals.

Oil rises after Israel pushes deeper into Lebanon

Geopolitical risk reasserted itself, while AI infrastructure spending and deal news added single-name catalysts.• Middle East/Oil: South Korea said the HMM ship explosion in Hormuz was likely caused by an Iranian Noor-series anti-ship missile; Israel and Hezbollah traded fire as Israeli forces appeared to move beyond the southern Lebanon buffer zone.• AI/Capex: ByteDance is weighing 2025 AI capex of as much as $70 billion and roughly $100 billion in 2026, versus about $25 billion last year.• Deals/Chemicals: Akzo rejected a €73-a-share cash offer from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams, a 39% premium, and said its Axalta merger remains superior.• Autos/Energy: Ford has risen 28% in two weeks after launching a $2 billion energy-storage unit targeting data centers, utilities and industrial customers.• Memory/China: CXMT cleared review for an about $4 billion Shanghai STAR listing, potentially pressuring Micron’s DRAM narrative.

Huawei chip plan lifts Chinese semis as Samsung averts strike

Chinese chip names rallied after Huawei proposed a novel chip design, while Samsung workers accepted a wage deal that averted a strike. Europe auto sales rose for a third month, but Australia and New Zealand central banks signaled hawkish stances, weighing on their currencies.• Semis/AI: SMIC rose nearly 6% after Huawei outlined the Tau Scaling Law, a chip-stacking method it claims could yield 1.4nm-class performance by 2031 despite US restrictions; Taiwan prosecutors suspect smuggling of Nvidia chips to China via Japan.• Samsung/Labor: Samsung Electronics union members approved a profit-sharing deal averting a strike, sending shares up 8% in Seoul, with memory workers set for $340,000 average bonuses.• Autos/Europe: Tesla’s European registrations rose 47% in April as overall EU car sales climbed 7%, driven by a 38% jump in EV deliveries partly on German subsidies.• RBNZ/Currency: The New Zealand dollar rose after the RBNZ held rates at 2.25% on a split vote and warned rates may need to rise sooner, with swaps pricing a 90% chance of a July hike.

Importers get tariff refunds as SK Hynix joins $1 trillion club

Policy, semis and commodity-linked names drove late news, with tariff cash returning to importers, AI-memory momentum spreading overseas and lithium data supportive.• Trade/Tariffs: CBP said $20.6bn of tariff refunds, including interest, is being disbursed; it corrected processed claims to about $25bn from $35.5bn after a data error. Greer said the 10% global levy could potentially be reimposed after July.• Semis/Memory: SK Hynix topped $1tn in market value after a 900% one-year rally and filed to list ADRs in the US; separately, Mubadala marketed 22mn GlobalFoundries shares at up to a 4.1% discount.• Space/IPO: FTSE Russell adopted faster index entry after the fifth trading day for very large IPOs, relevant to the expected SpaceX listing.• Lithium/Energy: SQM beat Ebitda estimates and raised lithium volume guidance; another Adnoc LNG cargo exited Hormuz for India.

Brent nears $100 as space stocks surge on SpaceX IPO hopes

Risk stayed constructive, but Gulf verification worsened and speculative growth pockets broadened, led by space and memory-chip names.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent traded near $100 after the Olympic Life reported an explosion 60 nautical miles east of Muscat; the crew was safe, while CENTCOM denied reports that U.S. escorts had resumed and vessel data showed two more non-Iranian supertankers exiting Hormuz.• Space/IPO: Redwire rose as much as 31%, AST SpaceMobile 20%, Firefly 21% and MDA 10% as SpaceX’s IPO filing fueled interest; the offering could come next month and seek up to $75 billion.• Semis/AI: Micron jumped 17% after UBS raised its target to a Street-high $1,625, implying a $1.8 trillion value; a new memory-chip ETF reached $10 billion in assets in 50 days.• China/Deals: Brussels is expected to open an in-depth foreign-subsidies probe into JD.com’s €2.2 billion Ceconomy bid.

Stocks rise after US Navy restarts Hormuz escorts

Risk appetite improved despite mixed Gulf headlines: equities opened higher and crude softened, while single-name moves were driven by semiconductors, energy governance and health-care M&A.• Iran/Hormuz: The S&P 500 opened up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 1.2% as WTI neared $92; the U.S. Navy guided a Greek supertanker with 2 million barrels through Hormuz and plans about a dozen escorts, though a tanker reported an external explosion in the Gulf of Oman.• Semis/AI: Qualcomm rose as much as 8.3% to a record after Bloomberg reported a deal to supply ByteDance with millions of AI data-center chips; Micron traded above a $1 trillion market value for the first time.• BP: BP’s London shares fell more than 9% after the board unanimously removed chair Albert Manifold over governance and conduct concerns.• Health Care: Lilly agreed to buy three vaccine developers for up to $3.8 billion, re-entering infectious-disease prevention.

Oil rises after Iran threatens retaliation

Geopolitical risk firmed again, while central-bank signals leaned hawkish in Europe and China added targeted easing.• Iran/Oil: Oil strengthened after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed retaliation for cease-fire violations and Khamenei said U.S. bases in the region were no longer safe. Israel also ordered the evacuation of Nabatieh before expected Lebanon strikes.• ECB/Rates: Schnabel told Reuters a June ECB rate hike is needed even if the Middle East war ends quickly. Lane said the ECB will probably raise its inflation forecast from the current 2.6% 2026 view.• China/Macro: China let the one-year policy-loan rate fall to a record 1.45% from 1.5% and injected a net 100 billion yuan through MLF operations.• Autos/Airlines: Ferrari fell 7.7% after its EV reveal. Delta’s cancellation rate is above the industry average; pilot-availability issues are 35% of mainline cancellations.

Chinese chip stocks jump on Huawei hopes while Brent rebounds

Asian trading was uneven as oil signals diverged and tech news flow stayed active, with China’s semiconductor rally contrasting with fresh company-specific pressure in consumer and megacap tech.• China Chips: SMIC and Hua Hong rose more than 16% in Hong Kong after Huawei said it aims to make 1.4-nanometer chips by 2031 using unproven LogicFolding technology, a potential long-term challenge to Nvidia and ASML.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose 1.7% to $97.80 while WTI fell 5.2% to $91.55; Rubio said Hormuz will be open “one way or another,” but draft language may take days.• Starbucks Korea: Shinsegae’s CFO said revenue was falling “very substantially” after a boycott over a Gwangju-related tumbler promotion; the local CEO was fired.• Apple: The FT said incoming CEO John Ternus faces pressure after delayed AI Siri work, a $250mn class-action settlement and executive departures.

US strikes Iranian targets while Treasuries rally on Iran deal hopes

Risk signals were mixed: ceasefire optimism drove oil and yields lower, but confirmed US strikes near Hormuz kept escalation risk alive.• Iran/Hormuz: US officials said American forces sank two IRGC boats laying mines, then hit missile launchers near Bandar Abbas after Iran fired surface-to-air missiles at US planes.• Rates/Oil: Treasuries rallied as cash trading reopened; two- and 10-year yields fell 7 bp to 4.05% and 4.49%. Brent slid more than 7% after Trump said talks were “proceeding nicely.”• Ferrari/Autos: Ferrari opened orders for the €550,000 Luce, its first full EV, with 1,000-plus horsepower, 0-100 kph in 2.5 seconds and profitability expected at launch.• Taiwan/AI: Taiwan’s market value overtook India’s at $4.95 trillion, helped by TSMC’s 49% year-to-date gain and expected fund inflows from looser single-stock limits.

Oil falls below $95 while Israel-Hezbollah fighting escalates

Crude extended its decline on deal hopes, but the operating path for energy markets stayed constrained by shipping backlogs and fresh regional escalation.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent dropped more than 5% below $95 after Trump said a Hormuz pact was near “finalization,” though the U.S. blockade remains until signing and talks slowed over nuclear language and sanctions relief.• Shipping/LNG: Two LNG tankers from Qatar passed through Hormuz toward China and Pakistan; industry officials warned that clearing roughly 1,500 stranded ships could take weeks or months.• Israel/Lebanon: Netanyahu said Israel is “at war” with Hezbollah and intends to intensify strikes after drone attacks; Lebanon reported at least three more deaths Monday.• Metals: Guinea plans June bauxite export-control reforms, while Ghana will raise central-bank purchases from large gold mines to 30% of output from June 1.• Mexico: April exports jumped 32.6% to a record $72.04 billion, widening the trade surplus to $4.52 billion.

Delivery Hero jumps above Uber offer as Iran says deal is not imminent

Oil relief persisted but diplomacy looked messier, while European deal activity and India energy stress added stock-specific angles.• Iran/Oil: Iran said many issues are resolved but no deal is imminent and nuclear details are not being discussed; Saudi Arabia wants clearer Hormuz navigation language. Brent was about $96, down roughly 4%.• Delivery Apps: Delivery Hero rose 9.8% to €36.88, about 13% above Uber’s €33 indicative offer, as investors bet Uber must sweeten terms. DoorDash has expressed interest in Talabat but has not bid.• India/Energy: India’s gas-fired power generation fell to at least a six-year low as LNG shipments were disrupted; peak demand hit 270.8 GW and blackouts hit New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.• Europe/Payments: Italy’s CDP approved lifting its Nexi stake to just under 30%, potentially blocking a CVC deal; Nexi rose more than 5%.

EM assets rise after Brent drops below $98 on Iran deal hopes

Oil relief extended into broader risk appetite, while war-related supply disruptions still hit selected commodity and LNG exposures.• Oil/EM: Brent fell as much as 6.2% to $97.10; the MSCI EM equity index rose 1.3% and EM currencies gained 0.3%.• Iran Diplomacy: Rubio said the US may have news on Iran talks “maybe today,” but said no agreement was reached Sunday and cautioned against overreading timing.• Fertilizers: Mosaic and OCP cut phosphate output as sulphur disruptions lifted prices to $850-$900 a tonne; China halted key phosphate exports until at least August.• LNG/Australia: Australia’s draft gas-reservation plan would cover existing LNG contracts and require 20% domestic supply; analysts said Santos’ Gladstone LNG looks most exposed.• SoftBank/AI: SoftBank rose 4.6% to a record on OpenAI IPO hopes, taking gains since May 20 to 40%.