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Brent nears $100 while AI-memory rally broadens
Risk appetite held up despite another Gulf risk premium: crude became the macro fulcrum, but equities drew support from AI-memory strength, space-related speculation and tariff-refund cash, while late export-control news put a check on Nvidia-linked enthusiasm.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent moved toward $100 after a tanker reported an explosion east of Muscat and Iran threatened retaliation, even as US escort headlines were disputed and more non-Iranian tankers exited Hormuz.• Semis/AI: Micron surged 17% after UBS lifted its target to a Street high, Qualcomm rallied on a reported ByteDance AI-chip supply deal, and SK Hynix topped $1 trillion before filing for US ADRs.• Nvidia/Export Controls: Nvidia slipped after Taiwan prosecutors said they suspected advanced Nvidia chips in Super Micro servers were smuggled to China via Japan, though neither company was accused.• Space/IPO: Redwire, AST SpaceMobile and other space names jumped after SpaceX’s expected IPO filing fueled hopes for a $75 billion deal and faster index inclusion.• Policy/Macro: CBP began disbursing $20.6 billion of tariff refunds, China eased via MLF operations, and ECB officials leaned hawkish on inflation risks.
Importers get tariff refunds as SK Hynix joins $1 trillion club
Policy, semis and commodity-linked names drove late news, with tariff cash returning to importers, AI-memory momentum spreading overseas and lithium data supportive.• Trade/Tariffs: CBP said $20.6bn of tariff refunds, including interest, is being disbursed; it corrected processed claims to about $25bn from $35.5bn after a data error. Greer said the 10% global levy could potentially be reimposed after July.• Semis/Memory: SK Hynix topped $1tn in market value after a 900% one-year rally and filed to list ADRs in the US; separately, Mubadala marketed 22mn GlobalFoundries shares at up to a 4.1% discount.• Space/IPO: FTSE Russell adopted faster index entry after the fifth trading day for very large IPOs, relevant to the expected SpaceX listing.• Lithium/Energy: SQM beat Ebitda estimates and raised lithium volume guidance; another Adnoc LNG cargo exited Hormuz for India.
Brent nears $100 as space stocks surge on SpaceX IPO hopes
Risk stayed constructive, but Gulf verification worsened and speculative growth pockets broadened, led by space and memory-chip names.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent traded near $100 after the Olympic Life reported an explosion 60 nautical miles east of Muscat; the crew was safe, while CENTCOM denied reports that U.S. escorts had resumed and vessel data showed two more non-Iranian supertankers exiting Hormuz.• Space/IPO: Redwire rose as much as 31%, AST SpaceMobile 20%, Firefly 21% and MDA 10% as SpaceX’s IPO filing fueled interest; the offering could come next month and seek up to $75 billion.• Semis/AI: Micron jumped 17% after UBS raised its target to a Street-high $1,625, implying a $1.8 trillion value; a new memory-chip ETF reached $10 billion in assets in 50 days.• China/Deals: Brussels is expected to open an in-depth foreign-subsidies probe into JD.com’s €2.2 billion Ceconomy bid.
Stocks rise after US Navy restarts Hormuz escorts
Risk appetite improved despite mixed Gulf headlines: equities opened higher and crude softened, while single-name moves were driven by semiconductors, energy governance and health-care M&A.• Iran/Hormuz: The S&P 500 opened up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 1.2% as WTI neared $92; the U.S. Navy guided a Greek supertanker with 2 million barrels through Hormuz and plans about a dozen escorts, though a tanker reported an external explosion in the Gulf of Oman.• Semis/AI: Qualcomm rose as much as 8.3% to a record after Bloomberg reported a deal to supply ByteDance with millions of AI data-center chips; Micron traded above a $1 trillion market value for the first time.• BP: BP’s London shares fell more than 9% after the board unanimously removed chair Albert Manifold over governance and conduct concerns.• Health Care: Lilly agreed to buy three vaccine developers for up to $3.8 billion, re-entering infectious-disease prevention.
Oil rises after Iran threatens retaliation
Geopolitical risk firmed again, while central-bank signals leaned hawkish in Europe and China added targeted easing.• Iran/Oil: Oil strengthened after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed retaliation for cease-fire violations and Khamenei said U.S. bases in the region were no longer safe. Israel also ordered the evacuation of Nabatieh before expected Lebanon strikes.• ECB/Rates: Schnabel told Reuters a June ECB rate hike is needed even if the Middle East war ends quickly. Lane said the ECB will probably raise its inflation forecast from the current 2.6% 2026 view.• China/Macro: China let the one-year policy-loan rate fall to a record 1.45% from 1.5% and injected a net 100 billion yuan through MLF operations.• Autos/Airlines: Ferrari fell 7.7% after its EV reveal. Delta’s cancellation rate is above the industry average; pilot-availability issues are 35% of mainline cancellations.
Chinese chip stocks jump on Huawei hopes while Brent rebounds
Asian trading was uneven as oil signals diverged and tech news flow stayed active, with China’s semiconductor rally contrasting with fresh company-specific pressure in consumer and megacap tech.• China Chips: SMIC and Hua Hong rose more than 16% in Hong Kong after Huawei said it aims to make 1.4-nanometer chips by 2031 using unproven LogicFolding technology, a potential long-term challenge to Nvidia and ASML.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose 1.7% to $97.80 while WTI fell 5.2% to $91.55; Rubio said Hormuz will be open “one way or another,” but draft language may take days.• Starbucks Korea: Shinsegae’s CFO said revenue was falling “very substantially” after a boycott over a Gwangju-related tumbler promotion; the local CEO was fired.• Apple: The FT said incoming CEO John Ternus faces pressure after delayed AI Siri work, a $250mn class-action settlement and executive departures.
Oil and yields fall on Iran cease-fire hopes
Risk appetite improved through the day as crude priced a higher probability of a Hormuz deal and Middle East tail risk remained contained, even after confirmed US defensive strikes near Iran. The move broadened into EM strength and a Treasury rally, while single-name news was dominated by antitrust pressure, European deal speculation and AI-linked regional rotation.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent fell from just under $98 in early trading to below $95 and later slid more than 7% after Trump said talks were proceeding well and US officials said the Iran cease-fire held despite strikes on IRGC boats and missile launchers.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries rallied as cash trading reopened, with two- and 10-year yields down 7 bp to 4.05% and 4.49%, tracking lower oil and reduced inflation-risk pricing.• EM/Commodities: EM equities and currencies rose on oil relief, while fertilizer supply stayed tight as Mosaic and OCP cut phosphate output amid sulphur disruptions and China kept key exports halted.• Antitrust/Media: Live Nation came under pressure as more than 30 states sought remedies including Ticketmaster and amphitheater divestitures; state coalitions also challenged Nexstar-Tegna and weighed Paramount-Warner.• Autos/AI: Ferrari opened orders for its first full EV, while TSMC-led strength helped Taiwan’s market value overtake India’s.
US strikes Iranian targets while Treasuries rally on Iran deal hopes
Risk signals were mixed: ceasefire optimism drove oil and yields lower, but confirmed US strikes near Hormuz kept escalation risk alive.• Iran/Hormuz: US officials said American forces sank two IRGC boats laying mines, then hit missile launchers near Bandar Abbas after Iran fired surface-to-air missiles at US planes.• Rates/Oil: Treasuries rallied as cash trading reopened; two- and 10-year yields fell 7 bp to 4.05% and 4.49%. Brent slid more than 7% after Trump said talks were “proceeding nicely.”• Ferrari/Autos: Ferrari opened orders for the €550,000 Luce, its first full EV, with 1,000-plus horsepower, 0-100 kph in 2.5 seconds and profitability expected at launch.• Taiwan/AI: Taiwan’s market value overtook India’s at $4.95 trillion, helped by TSMC’s 49% year-to-date gain and expected fund inflows from looser single-stock limits.
Oil falls below $95 while Israel-Hezbollah fighting escalates
Crude extended its decline on deal hopes, but the operating path for energy markets stayed constrained by shipping backlogs and fresh regional escalation.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent dropped more than 5% below $95 after Trump said a Hormuz pact was near “finalization,” though the U.S. blockade remains until signing and talks slowed over nuclear language and sanctions relief.• Shipping/LNG: Two LNG tankers from Qatar passed through Hormuz toward China and Pakistan; industry officials warned that clearing roughly 1,500 stranded ships could take weeks or months.• Israel/Lebanon: Netanyahu said Israel is “at war” with Hezbollah and intends to intensify strikes after drone attacks; Lebanon reported at least three more deaths Monday.• Metals: Guinea plans June bauxite export-control reforms, while Ghana will raise central-bank purchases from large gold mines to 30% of output from June 1.• Mexico: April exports jumped 32.6% to a record $72.04 billion, widening the trade surplus to $4.52 billion.
Delivery Hero jumps above Uber offer as Iran says deal is not imminent
Oil relief persisted but diplomacy looked messier, while European deal activity and India energy stress added stock-specific angles.• Iran/Oil: Iran said many issues are resolved but no deal is imminent and nuclear details are not being discussed; Saudi Arabia wants clearer Hormuz navigation language. Brent was about $96, down roughly 4%.• Delivery Apps: Delivery Hero rose 9.8% to €36.88, about 13% above Uber’s €33 indicative offer, as investors bet Uber must sweeten terms. DoorDash has expressed interest in Talabat but has not bid.• India/Energy: India’s gas-fired power generation fell to at least a six-year low as LNG shipments were disrupted; peak demand hit 270.8 GW and blackouts hit New Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.• Europe/Payments: Italy’s CDP approved lifting its Nexi stake to just under 30%, potentially blocking a CVC deal; Nexi rose more than 5%.
EM assets rise after Brent drops below $98 on Iran deal hopes
Oil relief extended into broader risk appetite, while war-related supply disruptions still hit selected commodity and LNG exposures.• Oil/EM: Brent fell as much as 6.2% to $97.10; the MSCI EM equity index rose 1.3% and EM currencies gained 0.3%.• Iran Diplomacy: Rubio said the US may have news on Iran talks “maybe today,” but said no agreement was reached Sunday and cautioned against overreading timing.• Fertilizers: Mosaic and OCP cut phosphate output as sulphur disruptions lifted prices to $850-$900 a tonne; China halted key phosphate exports until at least August.• LNG/Australia: Australia’s draft gas-reservation plan would cover existing LNG contracts and require 20% domestic supply; analysts said Santos’ Gladstone LNG looks most exposed.• SoftBank/AI: SoftBank rose 4.6% to a record on OpenAI IPO hopes, taking gains since May 20 to 40%.
Stocks weather yield spike after Iran deal hopes cool oil
US risk appetite ultimately improved despite a midweek rates shock and still-heavy geopolitical tape. The dominant cross-asset swing was the reversal of the Iran war premium: crude stayed volatile but ended under pressure as negotiations and a potential Hormuz framework advanced, helping equities look through sticky inflation signals and hawkish Fed commentary.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent moved from above $112 and impaired Gulf flows to roughly $99 by Sunday after Trump delayed planned strikes and Washington and Tehran moved toward a limited Hormuz reopening deal; energy equities and crude proxies lagged as the risk premium bled out.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries sold off hard when block sales helped push the 30-year yield to 5.19%, its highest since 2007, and Waller later said the next Fed move was as likely to be a hike as a cut; duration-sensitive equity valuations remained under pressure even as Iran-related inflation fears eased.• Equities/Risk: The S&P 500 still extended its weekly winning streak and the Dow hit a record as lower oil and AI enthusiasm offset weak Michigan sentiment, softer European PMIs and a hotter US factory survey.• AI/Semis: Nvidia’s results and guidance beat on the surface but disappointed elevated expectations, while China restrictions, compliance concerns and hyperscaler credit exposure tempered enthusiasm; AI infrastructure demand still supported power names and chip sentiment.• Single Names/M&A: Dominion rallied on NextEra’s all-stock bid, Uber pursued Delivery Hero, Futu and Tiger slumped on China’s brokerage crackdown, and Lilly gained on obesity-drug data.
Oil drops after US and Iran near Hormuz deal
Geopolitical risk premium bled out of crude through the day as Washington and Tehran appeared closer to a limited Hormuz framework, lifting futures and pressuring energy equities even though execution risk stayed high. The relief trade was tempered by warnings that long yields may remain sticky and by idiosyncratic China and M&A stories after hours.• Iran/Oil: Brent fell as much as 4.2% to $99.16 and WTI traded near $92 after a U.S. official said the sides agreed in principle to reopen Hormuz without tolls. The deal remained unsigned, could take days to approve and left the highly enriched uranium mechanism unresolved.• Shipping/Energy: Physical flows improved at the margin, with Iraqi crude and several LNG tankers exiting the Gulf, but the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continued and Centcom said 100 commercial vessels had been redirected since April 13.• Rates/Macro: ING, Goldman and Barclays warned long yields may stay elevated even if war inflation fades, keeping pressure on duration-sensitive equity valuations.• China Brokers: Citic estimated Beijing’s trading crackdown could affect HK$200 billion-HK$250 billion of Hong Kong assets, mostly at Futu and Tiger.• Delivery/M&A: FT said Uber’s board considered topping a rejected €38-a-share approach for Delivery Hero.
Oil drops after US and Iran move closer to Hormuz deal
Crude led the market reaction lower, but Hormuz execution risk and new China-related company exposures kept risk appetite selective.• Oil/FX: Brent fell as much as 4.2% to $99.16 and WTI traded near $92; US stock futures rose and the dollar slid while final approval of any Hormuz deal could take days.• Shipping/Energy: The US blockade of Iranian ports continued; Centcom said 100 commercial vessels have been redirected and four disabled since April 13. Bloomberg tracked three recent LNG tanker crossings, only seven since the war began.• China Brokers: Citic estimated the trading crackdown could affect HK$200 billion-HK$250 billion of Hong Kong assets, mostly at Futu and Tiger; existing mainland clients may only sell and withdraw during a two-year transition.• Delivery/Chips: FT said Uber’s board considered topping a rejected €38-a-share Delivery Hero approach. Separately, Huawei targeted 1.4nm chips by 2031 using “LogicFolding.”
Oil risk eases after US official confirms unsigned Hormuz framework
Energy relief broadened but remains conditional, while higher real yields and crowded shorts added sector pressure.• Iran/Oil: A U.S. official said Washington and Tehran agreed in principle to reopen Hormuz without tolls, but the deal is unsigned, could take days for approval and leaves the uranium-disposal mechanism unresolved.• Iran/Nuclear: Rubio signaled a phased approach: reopen the strait first, then negotiate enrichment and highly enriched uranium. A U.S. official said missiles and an enrichment moratorium are not covered.• Shipping/Oil: The VLCC Eagle Verona, carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude to China, exited the Persian Gulf; other ships reportedly moved toward the strait.• Rates/Macro: ING, Goldman and Barclays warned long yields may stay elevated even if war inflation fades; FT estimated current yields could add $8 billion to fiscal-2026 U.S. interest costs.• Gambling: S3 said shorts have made at least $2.3 billion this year betting against Flutter, DraftKings and Entain.
US officials cite Iran uranium concession as Kocher says ECB may hike in June
Iran diplomacy stayed the main cross-asset swing factor, but reported terms became more specific and contested; rates and defense news added secondary pressure.• Iran/Oil: Two US officials told NYT Iran agreed in principle to give up highly enriched uranium, but no mechanism is set and Tehran has not publicly confirmed it.• Hormuz/Energy: Bloomberg said Fars called Trump’s imminent-deal claim “far from reality,” while Axios reported a draft 60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, Iranian oil sales and continued nuclear talks.• Shipping/LNG: An Adnoc LNG tanker exited Hormuz for India, the first Persian Gulf LNG shipment since the war began, even as the strait remains largely shut.• Rates/Europe: ECB’s Kocher said a June hike is likely unless a sustainable US-Iran peace deal emerges.• Defense/Ukraine: Russia launched a heavy missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv.