Mar 24, 2026

Oil rises after Iran moves to formalize Hormuz tolls

Oil risk firmed again as Hormuz access, energy logistics and conflict spillovers outweighed still-contradictory diplomacy signals.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to charge security fees for Strait of Hormuz transit, with Fars saying it could be finalized next week; Brent rose as much as 1% to $103.27 in early Asia.• Diplomacy/War: Trump insisted Iran is negotiating, while Abbas Araghchi again denied talks and said only vessels from “friendly countries,” including China, Russia and India, had passed Hormuz.• Russia/Nuclear: FT, citing western intelligence, said Russia is close to completing drone shipments to Iran; Rosatom plans several evacuation rounds from Bushehr after projectiles hit the plant grounds.• LNG/Fuel: Asian and European buyers are seeking extra US LNG after Ras Laffan’s shutdown cut about a fifth of global supply; USPS plans a temporary 8% package surcharge from April 26.• Deals/Tech: Bloomberg reported Henkel is in advanced talks to buy Olaplex around $2/share; Meta and Google plan to appeal a $6M addiction-trial verdict.

Oil settles lower while Iran denies US talks

Risk appetite improved, but contradictory Iran diplomacy, unresolved shipping constraints and firmer inflation signals kept the tape fragile.• Oil/Diplomacy: Brent settled 2.2% lower at $102.22 and later was down 1.4%; the White House called talks productive, but Iran’s foreign minister said none had occurred.• War/Hormuz: The White House said US forces struck nearly 50 Iranian mine-laying ships and more than 9,000 targets, but gave no timeline for tanker transits to resume.• Diplomacy/Targets: WSJ reported the US and Israel temporarily removed Ghalibaf and Araghchi from a kill list for four to five days while mediators seek talks.• Rates/Fed: A weak $70B five-year auction followed Tuesday’s soft two-year sale; Fed Governor Miran raised his rate projection by 50 bp on inflation data.• Travel/Airlines: Nearly 50 aviation groups urged Congress to end the DHS shutdown as Gulf airspace closures still strand tens of thousands.

Oil firms after Iran broadens shipping threats

Energy risk re-priced higher as the war threatened another maritime chokepoint, while single-name news hit airlines, internet platforms and defense suppliers.• Shipping/Oil: IRGC-linked Tasnim said Iran could control Bab al-Mandeb and open new fronts if the US takes ground action; crude, the dollar and yields got a brief bump after Press TV said Bushehr was struck again.• Energy/Supply: EIA said US crude inventories rose 6.93 million barrels, while Saudi shipments from Yanbu averaged 4.4 million b/d over five days, near its 5 million target.• Airlines/M&A: JetBlue rose after Semafor reported it hired advisers to explore a sale to United, Alaska or Southwest; the report remains unconfirmed.• Internet/Litigation: A Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google liable in a social-media addiction case, raising read-across risk for thousands of similar suits.• Defense: The Pentagon sought to shift about $1.5B toward Patriot, THAAD and SM-3 interceptors from Lockheed and RTX.

Stocks rise while Iran sets conditions for talks

Risk assets held gains as investors looked through Tehran’s tougher public line, while fresh inflation data and single-name tech news added cross-currents.• Iran/Diplomacy: Fars and Press TV said Iran rejects a cease-fire, will end the war on its own timing and will not hold talks until five conditions are met, including reparations and recognition of authority over Hormuz.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 rose about 0.5%-0.6% and the Nasdaq gained about 0.9%; Brent stayed around or below $100, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.34%.• Macro/Prices: US import prices rose 1.3% in February, the most since 2022; excluding petroleum, they gained 1.2%, and export prices rose 1.5%.• Tech/Defense: Arm jumped 16% after unveiling its first in-house chip. Meta is cutting several hundred jobs, while the Pentagon signed frameworks to quadruple THAAD production capacity.

Stocks rise after Iran receives US cease-fire proposal

Risk appetite improved on cease-fire optionality, but shipping, energy-inflation and travel-fuel stress remain unresolved.• Diplomacy/Markets: AP reported Iran received the US 15-point proposal; FT said the Stoxx 600 rose 1.5%, Brent fell 5.2% to $99 and European gas slid over 6%.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran is asking ships seeking protected passage for crew and cargo lists, voyage documents and sometimes fees; Cosco reopened Gulf container bookings, but sources said Strait transits remain very limited.• Rates/Macro: Lagarde said the ECB could change rates at any meeting if energy inflation spreads; German Ifo expectations fell to 86, the lowest in over a year.• Airlines/Fuel: Asia showed jet-fuel hoarding; South Korea cited refueling limits, Vietnam warned of April shortages and United’s CEO said fares may rise.• Pharma: Merck agreed to buy Terns for $6.7B, or $53/share cash, to bolster its pipeline before Keytruda patent expirations.

Philippines declares energy emergency as Iran denies negotiations

The de-escalation trade became less one-way as Asian fuel stress worsened and Tehran publicly rejected the talks narrative, though policy responses aimed to cushion the oil shock.• Energy/Asia: The Philippines declared a one-year national energy emergency, citing only 45 days of oil supplies and warning that jet-fuel shortages could ground planes.• Diplomacy/Oil: Iran’s central military command denied negotiations and said oil prices would not normalize until Washington accepted Iran’s regional role, contradicting US claims of productive contacts.• Markets/War: Brent fell to about $96.50, then moved back above $100; Asian equities rose 1.8%, while Stoxx 50 futures pared gains to 0.9%.• Policy/Supply: Japan asked the IEA to prepare another coordinated reserve release, Thailand ended its diesel cap, and India booked 60 million barrels of Russian oil for April.• China Internet: Alibaba and JD.com rallied after Beijing moved to curb food-delivery price wars.

Oil falls while Iran sets high bar for cease-fire

Cease-fire optimism drove the trade, but reported Iranian demands and fresh Gulf strikes kept the risk premium from fully clearing.• Energy/Markets: Brent was quoted near $98 late Tuesday after topping $110 earlier this week; Japan and South Korea equities rose, and the 10-year yield fell to 4.35%.• Diplomacy/War: WSJ said IRGC-backed demands include closing all US Gulf bases, reparations, full sanctions relief and no missile limits; Gulf states are lobbying Trump not to settle early.• Military/Region: Israel began a new wave of strikes on Tehran government infrastructure. Drones hit a Kuwait airport fuel tank, causing fire but no casualties.• Chemicals/Fertilizer: Dow doubled its April polyethylene increase to 30c/lb, and analysts said LYB and XOM are also raising prices; governments are racing to secure fertilizer before planting.

Oil drops after US sends Iran peace plan

Late-day news cut both ways: crude reversed lower on more concrete diplomatic reporting, but military and regional spillover risks kept the tape fragile.• Oil/Diplomacy: WTI fell below $89 and Brent traded as low as $98.15 after reports that the US sent Iran a 15-point plan covering nuclear, missile and maritime issues; Israel’s Channel 12 said Washington wants a one-month ceasefire.• Military/Region: Mediators seek a US-Iran meeting within 48 hours, but officials said both sides remain far apart. Iraq authorized PMF militias to respond to attacks, Israel set the Litani River as a Lebanon buffer, and Bushehr reported another projectile with no damage.• Fuels/California: California diesel hit a record $7.018/gal. Chevron warned the state risks a fuel crisis and may stop refining there unless taxes and rules ease.• Single Names: Robinhood authorized a $1.5B buyback; Meta lost a New Mexico youth-safety consumer-protection verdict.

US readies 82nd deployment as Treasury yields jump

Risk stayed fragile: military escalation met tentative diplomacy, weak Treasury demand lifted yields, and shutdown frictions spread.• Geopolitics/Energy: WSJ said the Pentagon plans to deploy roughly 3,000 82nd Airborne soldiers, while officials said no decision has been made on boots in Iran. Trump said talks continue and cited an unspecified oil-and-gas “present” tied to Hormuz flows.• Rates/Macro: A $69 billion two-year auction drew weak demand at 3.936%; dealers took 24.1%, and the two-year yield rose as high as 3.96%.• Travel/Shutdown: Democrats rejected the latest DHS offer. TSA absences hit about 11%, Houston waits may top four hours, and Clear traded near a 2021 high.• Tech/Crypto: Arm will sell its own AI CPU to Meta, with TSMC manufacturing it. Circle fell as much as 22% on draft stablecoin-rewards restrictions.

Qatar LNG force majeure hits contracts as US activity cools

Energy supply stress broadened from crude into LNG and refined products, while US data added a stagflationary tone and AI spending stayed active.• LNG/Fuels: QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some long-term LNG contracts for customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China after Ras Laffan damage; Shell warned jet fuel is already tight, with diesel next.• Macro/Rates: S&P Global’s US composite PMI slipped to 51.4, an 11-month low, while input prices reached a 10-month high and selling prices hit the highest level since August 2022; 10-year yields touched 4.4%.• Airlines: United CEO Scott Kirby said fares may need to rise 20% if jet-fuel costs stay elevated and said 5% of uneconomic capacity has already been cut.• Shipping/Geopolitics: Iran’s IRGC said it turned back the container ship Selen in Hormuz for lacking permits; Pakistan offered to host US-Iran talks, but no imminent meeting was confirmed.• AI/Software: Microsoft agreed to lease a 700MW Texas data-center site; software stocks fell after The Information said AWS is building agents to automate specialist work.

Iran charges Hormuz tolls as Ares caps private-credit redemptions

Risk tone stayed hostage to Gulf logistics and private-credit liquidity, with several direct corporate and commodity channels emerging before the US open.• Energy/Shipping: Iran began seeking ad hoc Hormuz transit payments of up to $2 million per voyage from some vessels, people familiar said; war-risk insurance was quoted at 5%-10% of hull value.• Gas/Commodities: Iran halted gas exports to Turkey after the South Pars strike, people familiar said; Turkey sourced about 14% of its gas from Iran last year.• Private Credit: Ares capped withdrawals from its $10.7 billion Strategic Income Fund at 5% after 11.6% redemption requests; ARES and APO fell almost 4% premarket.• Deals/Banks: Bloomberg reported SMFG has no immediate plan or talks to acquire Jefferies, contradicting an FT report; JEF still rose as much as 14% premarket.

Euro PMIs weaken after Iran war lifts energy costs

Energy and war risk stayed elevated, but the clearest market signals were weaker European activity data, confirmed corporate disruption in the Gulf and fresh AI-capex spending.• Macro/Europe: The euro-zone composite PMI fell to 50.5, below the 51.0 forecast, with input costs rising at the fastest pace since February 2023. France dropped to 48.3, Germany to 51.9 and the UK to a six-month-low 51.0.• Cloud/Gulf: AWS said drone activity disrupted its Bahrain services and it was helping customers migrate to alternate regions; WSJ said Amazon shares fell 1.4%.• Diplomacy/Military: The US sent Iran a 15-point peace plan via Pakistan, NYT reported, while the Pentagon ordered about 2,000 82nd Airborne soldiers to the Middle East.• Semis: SK Hynix plans to buy 11.9 trillion won, or $7.9 billion, of ASML EUV tools through 2027 to support advanced memory for Nvidia accelerators.

Oil tops $104 while US stock futures slip

Risk appetite faded in Asia as crude retraced more of Monday’s plunge, Treasury yields rose and US equity futures weakened.• Markets/Energy: Brent rose 4% to $104; S&P 500 and Stoxx 600 futures slipped 0.7%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bp to 4.38%, and the dollar gained 0.5%.• Geopolitics: Israel reported new Iranian missile waves with impacts in southern and central Israel. Kuwait said intercepted debris knocked out seven power lines, and WSJ reported Saudi/UAE steps toward joining the war.• Policy/Energy: Japan sounded out banks on possible crude-futures intervention; China imposed retail fuel controls, allowing petrol to rise Rmb1,160/ton versus Rmb2,205 without controls.• Supply/Transport: Valero’s Port Arthur diesel hydrotreater suffered severe fire damage; Vietnam Airlines will cut 23 weekly flights, and the Philippines said plane groundings are possible.• Tech: SK Hynix is reviewing a possible US ADR listing to raise up to $10bn, Korea Economic Daily reported; Alibaba unveiled a RISC-V inference CPU.

Gulf attacks continue as private-credit stress broadens

Risk tone stayed constructive in Asia, but fresh strikes around the Gulf, Lebanon and Iraq undercut a clean de-escalation read. Private-credit liquidity concerns broadened, and regulators hit consumer-router supply chains.• Geopolitics/Energy: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reported drone and missile attacks; Bahrain sounded sirens. Israel struck Hezbollah sites around Beirut, and Iraq’s PMF said a commander was killed in an Anbar strike it blamed on the US.• Asia/Markets: The Nikkei rose as much as 2.3%, the Topix 2.5% and South Korea’s benchmark 3.7%; Brent rebounded 1% to $100.93 and the dollar gained 0.3%.• Private Credit: Apollo capped Debt Solutions redemptions at 5% after 11.2% requests; Cliffwater paid 7% versus 14% sought; Moody’s cut FS KKR to Ba1.• Tech/Regulation: The FCC banned imports of new foreign-made wireless-router models on security grounds, affecting Netgear, Google Nest, Eero and Cisco.

Brent settles below $100 as Pentagon weighs airborne deployment to Iran

US risk assets held part of the morning rally, but fresh military planning and hard-line Iranian demands kept the de-escalation trade from looking clean.• Markets/Energy: Brent settled 10.9% lower at $99.94, its first close below $100 since March 11; WTI fell 10.3% to $88.13, while the S&P 500 finished up 1.1% and the two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.84%.• Geopolitics/Military: US officials are weighing a roughly 3,000-soldier 82nd Airborne deployment; about 2,200 Marines are slated to enter Central Command on Friday, Trump’s Hormuz deadline day.• Iran/War: CENTCOM said the US has struck more than 9,000 Iranian targets and damaged or destroyed more than 140 vessels; a Khamenei adviser said the war continues until sanctions are lifted and damages compensated.• Single Stocks: Estée Lauder fell as much as 9.1% on an FT report it is nearing a Puig combination; Gilead is in advanced talks to buy Ouro Medicines, potentially for up to $2bn.

Oil pares losses after Iran speaker denies US talks

Oil’s drop moderated as Tehran’s denials became more specific, but risk appetite still improved enough to reopen parts of credit and lift Europe’s close.• Geopolitics/Energy: Iran’s parliament speaker said no US negotiations had occurred and accused Trump of using “fake news” to manipulate oil markets; Brent recovered from about $96 to near $102.• Diplomacy: Axios/FT, citing officials, said Pakistan is being pitched as a venue for possible US-Iran talks, while Starmer said the UK was aware of contacts.• Credit/Rates: Six US high-grade issuers came to market after a three-session halt; Schatz futures were halted twice, and Europe closed with two-year gilt yields down 17bp.• Single Stocks: Apple is preparing Maps ads and set WWDC for June 8; Toyota pledged another $1bn for Kentucky and Indiana output; Mastercard faces a Banco Master-related bill.

Stocks rise after Trump says Iran talks will continue by phone

US risk assets extended the relief move, but officials and energy executives stressed that the path to a durable oil-market reset remains uncertain.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 rose about 2% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, while Brent traded near $100, down more than 10%, after Trump said there was a “very serious chance” of a deal.• Iran/Diplomacy: Trump said talks with a “top” Iranian official would continue by phone Monday, demanded no enrichment and Iran’s enriched uranium, and floated joint control of Hormuz; Iran still publicly denied talks.• Israel/Gulf: Israel said it was striking Tehran and an Israeli official said no imminent end to the war was expected, though Israel plans to avoid energy assets.• Energy: Energy Secretary Wright said SPR crude began flowing Friday at 1 million-1.5 million b/d; Chevron said physical oil, diesel and jet fuel markets are tighter than futures imply.• Credit: JPMorgan launched an $8 billion junk-bond sale for the EA buyout.

Stocks rebound after Trump postpones Iran energy strikes

Risk assets snapped higher after Trump delayed threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, but the rally faded after Iranian media denied any direct or indirect contact with Washington.• Iran/Markets: Trump said US-Iran talks were “productive” and paused energy-site strikes for five days. Brent briefly fell more than 14% to $96, S&P futures jumped about 2.5%, and Treasuries erased losses.• Contradiction/Hormuz: Iran’s Fars denied contact with Trump and state media framed the pause as a US retreat. Hormuz remains effectively closed; Windward said GPS jamming has affected more than 1,000 ships.• Energy/Macro: IEA’s Birol said current losses are 11 million b/d of oil and about 140 bcm of gas, worse than the 1970s oil shocks plus the Ukraine gas disruption.• Single Names: Airlines and cruises rallied on lower oil; AAL and UAL rose about 5%, CCL more than 7%, while CF fell more than 6%.

European stocks sink after Iran threatens to mine Gulf routes

Risk assets weakened in Europe as the Gulf shipping threat broadened, while rates and precious metals absorbed a stagflation shock.• Gulf/Shipping: Iran’s defense council said it would mine key maritime routes across the Persian Gulf if Iranian islands or coasts are attacked, extending the Hormuz threat across the wider Gulf.• Equities/Rates: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell about 1.5%-1.7% into technical correction, while global bonds have lost more than $2.5 trillion in March; BOE swaps now fully price four 2026 hikes.• Metals/FX: Gold fell as much as 8.8% and silver more than 10%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% and bullish dollar options positioning reached the strongest since 2022.• Oil/Gas: Goldman now assumes Hormuz flows stay at only 5% of normal for six weeks; European gas rose more than 5%.

Asian stocks slide as LNG exports hit six-month low

Risk-off moves broadened in early Asia, with fresh supply-chain data showing the energy shock moving beyond crude into LNG and industrial metals.• Asia/Rates: Japan’s Nikkei fell as much as 5%, South Korea’s Kospi 6.4% and MSCI EM 2.5%; Japan’s 10-year yield rose 6 bp to 2.32% and the won hit its weakest since 2009.• Energy/LNG: Global LNG shipments fell about 20% from the start of March to 1.1 million tons, a six-month low, mainly on reduced Qatar and UAE flows. The IEA said more than 40 regional energy assets were severely or very severely damaged.• Oil/Commodities: Brent reversed from $114.35 to about $110.75, while copper hit a three-month low after a 6.7% weekly drop.• Single Names: Elliott reportedly built a multibillion-dollar Synopsys stake; Upstage is in talks to buy 10,000 AMD MI355 accelerators.