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Oil spikes after Gulf war widens
Risk appetite deteriorated through the week as the Iran conflict broadened into a Gulf energy and shipping shock. The dominant cross-asset move was stagflationary: crude and defense exposure rallied, equities and airlines sold off, and Treasuries failed to hold safe-haven gains as oil-driven inflation risk pushed yields higher.• Oil/Shipping: Crude surged from the low $70s to above $90 by Friday, with weekend indications near $120, after Hormuz traffic stalled, Iraq and Kuwait cut output, QatarEnergy halted LNG production, and Gulf tankers, refineries and storage sites came under pressure.• Macro/Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.16%-4.19% even after February payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%, because the market focused on higher energy inflation and reduced odds of multiple 2026 Fed cuts.• Equities/Sectors: The S&P 500 faced persistent pressure, the Dow dropped 784 points Thursday, airlines lagged on jet-fuel and route disruption, while energy, LNG-linked names, fertilizers, aluminum and defense contractors benefited from supply stress and military demand.• Geopolitics/Defense: Iranian strikes damaged U.S.-linked Gulf infrastructure, Hezbollah re-entered the conflict, Washington signaled a longer campaign, and allies supported defensive strikes, keeping RTX and LMT in focus.• Single Names: Nvidia fell on potential AI-chip export curbs, Broadcom rallied on AI strength, BlackRock dropped on HPS redemption limits, and Hims jumped on a Novo Nordisk partnership.
Oil nears $120 after Gulf attacks widen
War-risk dominated the day and turned into a full energy shock by Asian trading, with crude moving from supply-squeeze concern to disorderly inflation shock. Equity futures, Asian stocks and EM assets weakened as the market priced tighter oil, higher rates and broader Gulf infrastructure risk.• Oil/Supply: Brent moved above $100 into the U.S. close, then spiked as high as $119.50 in Asia after Iraq’s output was reported near 1.3mn b/d and Hormuz stayed effectively shut for a seventh day.• Gulf Security: Kuwait airport fuel tanks, Bahrain water and refinery infrastructure, Saudi oil and air-base targets, and UAE drone defenses kept escalation risk high as Iran signaled countries hosting U.S.-Israeli attacks could be hit.• Markets/Macro: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1.6%, the dollar rose, the 10-year yield climbed to 4.19%, and gold dropped as oil-led inflation fears overpowered haven demand.• Asia/EM: Korea triggered a circuit breaker, the Nikkei slid as much as 7.6%, and EM pressure broadened as the rupiah hit a record low.• LNG/Semis: Qatar LNG outage concerns lifted gas-linked risk, while a 700% surge in DRAM spot prices pointed to another AI hardware cost squeeze.
Oil nears $120 after Saudi and Bahrain attacks widen Gulf risk
The oil shock deepened, broadening pressure across Asia, EM assets and inflation-sensitive commodities while Gulf security risks escalated.• Energy/Commodities: Brent rallied as much as 29% to $119.50, and the May-June spread moved beyond $9; copper fell as much as 2.2%, while aluminum hit the highest since 2022.• Gulf Security: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted five drones aimed at Shaybah oil field and three missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base; Bahrain said 32 civilians were injured near the Sitra refinery.• Markets/EM: MSCI EM equities fell more than 10% from their peak, Japan’s Nikkei dropped 7.6%, and Indonesia’s rupiah hit an all-time low as its stock index neared a bear market.• LNG/Policy: Morgan Stanley said Qatar’s LNG outage likely erases the 2026 surplus; Taiwan capped this week’s domestic fuel increase near 5% versus a possible 19.7%.
Oil spikes above $110 as South Korea halts program selling
Risk-off trading accelerated as crude made another leg higher, Asia opened under pressure and inflation hedges behaved unevenly.• Energy/Markets: Brent reached $111.04 and WTI $111.24 in early Asia, while Brent’s prompt spread topped $8.50 a barrel, the widest in data back to 2013.• Equities/Asia: The Kospi fell as much as 8.8%, triggering a 20-minute circuit breaker; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropped more than 10%, and Japan’s Nikkei opened down more than 3%.• Macro/Rates: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 1.6%, the Bloomberg dollar gauge rose 0.5%, and the U.S. 10-year yield climbed 5 bp to 4.19%.• Commodities: Gold fell 2.3% to $5,064 as the stronger dollar and oil-led inflation fears outweighed haven demand.• Credit: BlackRock capped withdrawals from its $26bn HPS Corporate Lending Fund at 5% after requests nearly doubled that limit.
Oil tops $100 after Iraq output falls below one-third of normal
Energy and geopolitical risk intensified into the close, while a separate AI supply-chain squeeze raised hardware cost concerns.• Oil/Supply: FT said oil traded above $100 for the first time since August 2022; WSJ put Iraq output near 1.3mn b/d, below one-third of normal and down from earlier 1.7-1.8mn estimates.• Shipping/Markets: Hormuz remained near shut for a seventh day, with only Iran-linked ships crossing; UKMTO reported more than 600 navigation disruptions in 24 hours, and FT said U.S. futures fell in early Asia.• Military/Policy: Trump is weighing special forces to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium; the Pentagon reported a seventh U.S. service member died from a Saudi-base attack.• Gulf/Defense: Saudi Arabia reported its first civilian deaths, and the UAE said it intercepted 113 of 117 drones Sunday.• Semis/Hardware: Bloomberg said DRAM spot prices are up nearly 700% in a year as AI demand creates a memory shortage.
Oil supply shock deepens after Iraq output plunges 60%
Energy risk tightened further, with new production losses and product-price pressure adding to equity inflation concerns, while regional escalation spread into water infrastructure and Lebanon.• Oil/Supply: Bloomberg reported Iraq’s output has fallen about 60% to 1.7-1.8mn b/d from 4.3mn because tanker availability collapsed; Kayrros satellite data suggested Saudi Arabia also temporarily reduced supply.• Products/Airlines: AAA put U.S. gasoline at $3.41 after another 4-cent rise, and GasBuddy said $3.50-$3.65 is possible by midweek; New York jet fuel rose to about $3.89/gal.• Gulf Infrastructure: Bahrain said an Iranian drone damaged a desalination plant, the first reported strike on Gulf drinking-water infrastructure; officials said supplies were unaffected.• Iran/Israel: Iranian outlets now say a successor has been chosen or a majority view formed but name no leader, while Israel said it struck 400 Iranian targets in 24 hours.• Lebanon/Israel: Israel reported its first two military fatalities of the war in southern Lebanon.
Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader as Kuwait airport fuel tanks are hit
War-risk widened into Sunday with Iran formalizing succession and Gulf infrastructure attacks moving beyond oil fields into airports and state facilities.• Iran Succession: State media said clerics named Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as supreme leader and commander in chief; he is tied to the IRGC, and Trump has called him unacceptable.• Gulf Infrastructure: Kuwait said drones hit two fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, one catching fire, and Bloomberg said the pension-fund headquarters also burned; Kuwait also intercepted three ballistic missiles.• Regional Strikes: Israel struck Beirut's Raouché area for the first time since the 2024 Hezbollah war, killing four and saying it targeted IRGC Quds Force Lebanon Corps commanders.• Gulf Policy: Pezeshkian said Iran has “no choice” but to strike countries hosting U.S.-Israeli attacks, walking back his earlier de-escalation message.
Oil risk rises after Kuwait declares force majeure
Gulf war risk moved from airport and air-defense disruption to a clearer energy-supply shock by the close. Early relief from resumed Dubai flights and Iranian de-escalation language faded as tanker traffic, crude output and product sales were increasingly impaired, keeping the equity read negative for airlines and credit but supportive for energy and defense.• Energy/Supply: Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure on crude and product sales, Kuwait confirmed precautionary output cuts, and ADNOC managed offshore production because storage was filling while Hormuz tanker traffic remained virtually halted.• Geopolitics/Oil: Iran-linked strikes targeted the Louise P tanker off Jubail and Saudi Aramco’s Berri field, while weekend oil futures rose about 4% to $92 and gold gained 1.5%.• Gulf/Aviation: Dubai airport resumed operations after debris from an intercepted strike, but UAE officials later reported deaths and property damage, underscoring persistent regional aviation risk.• Defense/Policy: Washington bypassed Congress for about $658 million of bombs for Israel, rushed counterdrone systems to the region and used British bases as Trump threatened additional Iranian targets.• Credit: Barclays and Morgan Stanley favored buying CDS protection as high-grade protection costs rose despite narrower cash spreads.
Kuwait declares force majeure as UAE trims offshore oil output
Energy-supply risk worsened as Gulf producers shifted from precautionary cuts to contract disruptions, while strikes hit urban and refining assets.• Energy/Supply: Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure on crude and product sales; ADNOC said it was managing offshore output because storage is filling as Hormuz tanker traffic remains virtually halted.• Gulf/Property: Dubai said interception debris killed a driver in Al Barsha and damaged the 23 Marina Tower facade, lifting confirmed UAE attack deaths to four.• Refining/War: Iranian media reported strikes on oil depots near Tehran; the Guards said they fired Kheibar Shekan missiles toward Haifa’s refinery in response.• Policy/Rates: Trump said oil prices may rise but would fall “very fast,” claimed 70% of Iranian missile launchers were knocked out, and left ground troops conditional on a “very good reason.”• Credit: Barclays and Morgan Stanley favored buying CDS protection; Bloomberg said high-grade protection costs rose about 3 bp even as cash spreads narrowed.
Oil rises after Iran hits Gulf energy targets
War-risk widened across Gulf energy assets and weekend proxy markets, with confirmed supply cuts and new strikes outweighing Tehran’s de-escalation language.• Energy/Geopolitics: Iran’s Guards said they hit the Louise P tanker off Jubail; UKMTO said most crew were evacuated. Saudi officials said Aramco’s 250,000 b/d Berri field was targeted, with minor debris damage after interception.• Oil/Markets: Kuwait confirmed precautionary cuts to crude and refinery output. Hyperliquid weekend oil futures rose 4% to $92, while gold gained 1.5% to $5,170.• Gulf Defense: The UAE said it intercepted 15 of 16 ballistic missiles and 119 of 121 drones Saturday, contradicting Iran’s claim that it was not attacking neighbors.• Military/Policy: Trump threatened new Iranian targets; the U.S. began using British bases, and the Army is rushing Ukraine-tested counterdrone systems to the region.
Dubai flights resume after drone strike disrupts airport
Energy shock and Gulf aviation disruptions stayed the main market channels, while Washington moved to accelerate Israeli resupply.• Gulf/Aviation: Dubai International briefly suspended operations after debris from an intercepted strike; Emirates resumed, and Qatar Airways began relief flights after airspace reopened.• Iran/Gulf: Pezeshkian apologized and said Iran would stop attacking neighbors unless attacks originated there, but alerts still sounded in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE.• Defense/Israel: The State Department invoked emergency authority to bypass Congress for more than 20,000 bombs to Israel, valued at about $658 million.• Energy/Inflation: AAA said U.S. gasoline averaged $3.41 a gallon, up 14% in a week; India raised household LPG prices 7%.
Oil spikes after Hormuz traffic stalls
The day turned from tentative energy relief into a full stagflation scare: crude surged on a worsening Gulf shipping shock, a weak jobs report raised growth concerns, and risk assets faded into the close. Washington offered a maritime reinsurance backstop late in the session, but after-hours strikes and drone interceptions kept war-risk premia elevated.• Energy/Shipping: An early pullback after the U.S. waiver for India reversed as Hormuz traffic fell to single digits, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended routes, reinsurers canceled war-risk cover, and Kuwait cut output at some fields. Brent settled above $92 before Saudi Arabia reported drones aimed at the Shaybah field and Israel struck Tehran infrastructure.• Macro/Rates: February payrolls fell 92,000, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and revisions were negative. Treasuries initially rallied on growth risk, but the move reversed as oil inflation dominated; 10-year yields rose back near 4.16%, the dollar firmed, the S&P 500 sold off, and IG CDX widened.• Sector Rotation: Airlines lagged as jet fuel spiked, while energy, fertilizers, aluminum and defense stayed supported by supply-chain stress and production headlines.• Credit/Single Names: BlackRock dropped after an HPS fund capped redemptions, Western Alliance flagged a First Brands charge, Marvell rallied on AI-driven guidance, and Hims jumped after hours on a Novo Nordisk weight-loss drug partnership.
Saudi oilfield targeted as Israel strikes Tehran airport
War-risk headlines broadened after the close, while idiosyncratic health-care and index news drove sharp single-name moves.• Gulf Energy: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 20 drones aimed at the 1 million b/d Shaybah oil field, plus three missiles toward Prince Sultan Air Base.• Iran/Israel: Israel began a broad wave of strikes on Tehran government infrastructure; Iranian state media said the area near Mehrabad Airport was hit.• Oil Policy: Bessent said Treasury may “unsanction” more Russian oil, citing hundreds of millions of sanctioned barrels already on the water.• Biotech/FDA: FDA biologics chief Vinay Prasad will leave next month; UniQure rose as much as 70% after hours and Regenxbio as much as 29%.• Obesity Drugs: Novo Nordisk plans to sell weight-loss drugs through Hims & Hers; HIMS jumped 40% after hours.
US unveils Hormuz reinsurance after Brent settles above $92
Washington moved from promises to a concrete shipping backstop, but war-risk, energy and credit stress remained elevated into the close.• Energy/Shipping: The U.S. DFC announced up to $20 billion of rolling maritime reinsurance for Gulf vessels, initially covering hull, machinery and cargo; the release did not address Navy escorts.• Oil/Inflation: Brent settled above $92, up about 27%-30% for the week, while WTI traded near $92 and one-year CPI swaps rose to about 2.9%.• Defense: Trump said CEOs from BAE, Boeing, Honeywell, L3Harris, Lockheed, Northrop and Raytheon agreed to quadruple production of “Exquisite Class” weapons.• Credit/Financials: Western Alliance fell after flagging a roughly $126 million First Brands charge; Pimco warned private debt should face a “full-blown default cycle.”• Tech/AI: Oracle and OpenAI dropped plans to expand Crusoe’s Abilene data center from 1.2GW to 2.0GW.
Oil tops $91 after Kuwait cuts output
Oil and dollar strength, not the weak jobs print, dominated trading as the Gulf supply shock spread into metals, airlines and credit.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent rose above $91 after WSJ reported Kuwait began cutting output at some fields because storage filled; Trump ruled out Iran talks except “unconditional surrender.”• Markets/Rates: The initial Treasury rally reversed; 10-year yields rose to about 4.16%, Bloomberg’s dollar gauge gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and IG CDX widened to 58.55 bp, the worst since May.• Credit/Private Funds: BlackRock fell 7.2% after its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund capped redemptions at 5% versus 9.3% requested.• Airlines/Commodities: Deutsche Bank called jet-fuel spreads an “existential threat” to airlines; Bloomberg said US jet fuel topped $4/gallon, while aluminum hit four-year highs and Qatar helium shutdowns lifted spot prices 35%-50%.
Payrolls shrink as Brent hits $90
Markets faced stagflation pressure after a negative payroll print collided with another oil leg higher; bonds rallied on growth risk while equity futures stayed lower.• Macro/Rates: February payrolls fell 92,000 versus expectations for a roughly 50,000 gain; unemployment rose to 4.4%, revisions cut 69,000 jobs, and private payrolls dropped 86,000, the worst since 2020.• Markets/Energy: Brent reached $90 as Hormuz traffic remained largely halted; S&P 500 futures fell 0.75% and Nasdaq 100 futures nearly 1%, while 10-year yields fell to about 4.10% and swaps priced 44 bp of 2026 Fed cuts.• Shipping/Insurance: London reinsurers issued seven-day cancellations of marine war-risk cover; buyback costs reportedly tripled to $750,000 per vessel.• Aviation/Fuel: Northwest Europe jet fuel jumped 75% in a week to $1,445.25/ton, pressuring airlines.• Gulf Escalation: Tasnim said a U.S.-owned tanker near Kuwait was attacked and on fire, but the vessel was not identified.
Oil tops $90 after Hormuz traffic nearly halts
Energy inflation risk returned sharply, with shipping disruptions broadening from tankers into container routes and rates markets repricing for stickier inflation.• Oil/Inflation: WTI topped $90, up 12.2% on the day and 35.6% for the week, while AAA gasoline reached $3.32 a gallon, the highest since September 2024.• Shipping/Supply: JMIC said Hormuz transits fell to single digits, with only two confirmed commercial crossings in 24 hours; Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended key Middle East services.• Rates/Policy: European money markets fully priced an ECB hike this year; German two-year yields are up 30 bp since last Friday. The EU saw no case yet for releasing oil stocks.• Company News: Marvell jumped 18% after AI-driven results and guidance beat expectations; Nike slipped 1.7% on a planned $300 million restructuring charge.
Oil falls as global funds dump Asian equities
Energy relief broadened overnight, but conflict spillovers kept pressure on EM risk, fertilizers and defense supply chains.• Oil/Supply: Brent and WTI pulled back about 2% after the U.S. waiver for India; Bloomberg tracked more than 15 million barrels of Russian crude already near India and said refiners bought over 10 million barrels recently.• Gulf Defense: Kuwait said it had engaged 212 ballistic missiles and 394 drones since the escalation began; Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles aimed at Prince Sultan Air Base, and Qatar stopped a drone attack on Al-Udeid.• EM Flows: EM equities and currencies were on pace for their worst week since March 2020; foreign funds sold $11 billion of developing-Asia shares, including a record $7.9 billion from Taiwan.• Fertilizers: U.S. urea reached $550/short ton and Egyptian granular urea rose 27% to $620/ton as buyers rushed supplies moving through Hormuz.