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Oil slips after Trump pauses planned Iran strike
Energy risk set the tone early as Hormuz traffic and tanker loading signals kept crude risk premia elevated, but the close brought relief after Trump delayed the planned Iran strike. Equity catalysts were otherwise stock-specific, led by utility and ad-tech M&A, health-care policy losses and AI/semi headlines.• Energy/Geopolitics: Hormuz transits fell to three, Kharg Island remained without large tanker loadings for at least a 10th day and Brent closed above $112, before WTI slipped 1.4% below $103 after Trump said Gulf leaders sought a two-to-three-day delay to a Tuesday Iran strike.• M&A: NextEra agreed to buy Dominion in a roughly $67bn all-stock deal, lifting Dominion and pressuring NextEra, while Publicis agreed to buy LiveRamp for $2.2bn cash at a near-30% premium.• Health Care: The Supreme Court declined to hear six drugmakers’ challenges to Medicare price negotiations, and Regeneron fell after fianlimab failed a late-stage melanoma trial against Keytruda.• AI/Semis: Nvidia rose after Jensen Huang said China could eventually allow US AI-chip imports; Tenstorrent also drew early takeover interest from Intel and Qualcomm.
Oil slips after Trump pauses planned Iran strike
Energy risk eased but did not clear, while semis and market-structure policy added fresh equity catalysts after the close.• Energy/Geopolitics: Trump said Gulf leaders sought a two-to-three-day delay to a Tuesday Iran strike; WTI fell 1.4% below $103, though Brent had closed above $112 and US-Iran proposals were still described as insufficient.• AI/Semis: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he expects China eventually to allow US AI-chip imports, but said he did not directly discuss H200 sales; Trump said H200s came up with Xi.• Semis/M&A: Tenstorrent drew early takeover interest from Intel and Qualcomm, according to people familiar; a sale could value the AI-chip startup above $5bn.• Market Structure: The SEC is expected to propose an exemption for tokenized stocks, potentially letting crypto platforms trade digital versions of public-company shares.
US extends Russian oil waiver as OpenAI wins Musk case
Policy moves and AI litigation supplied the clearest catalysts, while credit and transport updates added sector-specific pressure.• Energy/Policy: Treasury will issue a new 30-day license allowing sales of Russian oil stranded at sea, Bessent said, aiming to stabilize the physical crude market.• Fed/Policy: A White House official said Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as Fed chair on Friday, with the ceremony set for the White House.• AI/Software: A jury unanimously rejected Musk’s OpenAI claims as time-barred after less than two hours; Microsoft also was not liable. Musk’s team said it will appeal, and antitrust claims remain unresolved.• Credit: Fitch said its private-credit default rate hit the highest level since it began tracking in August 2024, with 10 April defaults.• Mobility: Uber raised its Delivery Hero stake to 19.5%, plus 5.6% in options, but said it has no current intent to cross 30%.
Drugmakers lose Supreme Court appeals as Hormuz traffic dwindles
Geopolitical energy stress remained the dominant macro risk, while health-care policy and AI-infrastructure supply comments drove equity dispersion.• Energy/Hormuz: Bloomberg tracking showed Hormuz transits fell to three Monday morning, all Iran-linked; Kharg Island had no large tankers loading for at least a 10th day, while CENTCOM said it has diverted 81 ships.• Health Care: The Supreme Court declined to hear six drugmakers’ challenges to Medicare price negotiations, leaving the program in force; HHS also rescinded a vaccine-panel charter after citing an administrative error.• Tech Hardware: Seagate fell as much as 8.3% after its CEO said new factories would “take too long,” and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped nearly 2%.• Credit/Private Markets: Citi and BlackRock’s HPS agreed to target up to €15bn of European direct lending over five years.• Housing: NAHB sentiment rose 3 points to 37 in May, still below 50 as high rates weighed on demand.
NextEra buys Dominion as Baidu beats sales estimates
Confirmed utility M&A drove the cleanest equity catalyst, while AI-linked earnings and biotech trial risk added single-name dispersion against a still-heavy oil backdrop.• Utilities/M&A: NextEra agreed to buy Dominion in an all-stock deal valued near $67bn, or $75.98 a share; Dominion rose about 10% premarket and NextEra fell about 5%.• China/AI: Baidu’s first-quarter revenue fell to 32.1bn yuan but beat the 31.5bn yuan estimate, lifting U.S.-listed shares more than 3% premarket.• Biotech: Regeneron dropped as much as 12% premarket after fianlimab failed a late-stage melanoma trial against Merck’s Keytruda.• Energy: Satellite images showed 23 tankers near Iran’s Kharg Island, the highest post-blockade tally; the IEA again warned commercial inventories are depleting rapidly.
Publicis buys LiveRamp as Ryanair suspends guidance
Single-name M&A and energy-cost pass-through dominated, while Gulf logistics and Japan fiscal concerns kept the macro risk premium high.• Ad Tech: Publicis agreed to buy LiveRamp for $2.2bn cash, valuing it at $38.50 a share, nearly 30% above Friday’s close; closing is targeted before year-end.• Airlines/Energy: Ryanair suspended annual guidance, saying unhedged jet fuel could lift unit costs by mid-single digits; FY profit rose 36% to €2.4bn.• Shipping/Inflation: Shanghai-to-Gulf and Red Sea container rates hit $4,131 per 20-foot box, up from $980 before the war and above the 2021 pandemic peak.• Japan/Rates: Takaichi ordered work on a supplementary budget for energy subsidies; the yen weakened near ¥159 and the 10-year JGB reached 2.75%.• Semis: Samsung rose more than 4% after a court partially limited strike disruption; a May 21 walkout is still threatened.
Stocks wobble after oil shock drives yields higher
Risk appetite began the week resilient, helped by AI demand and record US indexes, but it faded as hotter inflation, a blocked Hormuz corridor and rising long-end yields forced a more defensive tape. Oil stayed the dominant macro shock, feeding inflation fears and Fed-hike pricing, while China talks produced selective corporate winners but limited confidence in a durable trade reset.• Rates/Oil: April CPI and PPI surprised higher, petroleum lifted import prices, and Brent moved above $109 as Hormuz logistics stayed impaired. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, duration sold off and equities finally broke lower on Friday.• AI/Semis: Nvidia extended its rally and Cerebras priced above range, while Applied Materials and Cisco pointed to AI infrastructure demand. The group still saw volatility after hot CPI hit Micron and Qualcomm and regulation pressure hurt Arm.• China/Trade: Trump-Xi talks brought tariff-relief headlines, US beef-plant approvals and aircraft and farm-purchase pledges, lifting Boeing at times, but Beijing called details preliminary and weak China credit and activity data capped the read-through.• Energy/Geopolitics: Gulf risk remained acute as Kharg shipments stopped, ships rerouted and a vessel was seized, before a drone strike near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant kept weekend oil hedges bid.• Credit/M&A: BDCs traded at deep discounts to net asset value as credit losses rose and dividends were cut, while reported NextEra-Dominion talks added a utility catalyst.
Oil rises while Treasury yields hit cycle highs
Risk appetite stayed fragile as the day’s macro pressure points converged around higher long-end yields, renewed Middle East energy risk and uneven China news. Selective trade headlines helped Boeing and agriculture, but they did not offset the rates overhang or the late oil bid. After hours, a potential NextEra-Dominion transaction added a large-cap utility catalyst.• Rates/Macro: The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.16%, the highest since October 2023, after April CPI reached 3.8% and markets priced a Fed hike by March. Record-high JGB yields added concern that Japanese investors could repatriate capital from Treasuries.• Energy/Geopolitics: Oil firmed after a drone strike caused a fire near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant. Radiation stayed normal and operations continued, but the UAE was said to suspect Iran while Trump warned that Tehran’s “clock is ticking” on Hormuz.• Trade/China: The White House said China agreed to buy at least $17bn of US farm goods annually through 2028 and that the US had locked in China’s purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft; Beijing gave no specifics.• China/Macro: April data weakened, with retail sales up just 0.2% and fixed-asset investment down 1.6% year on year.• Utilities/M&A: NextEra is discussing a mostly stock bid for Dominion at about $76 a share, though talks could still fail.
Oil rises after drone hits near UAE nuclear plant
Energy, rates and China data kept risk tone fragile, while a potential utility mega-deal added a single-name catalyst.• Energy/Geopolitics: A drone strike caused a fire near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant; radiation was normal, the plant kept operating, and the IAEA said one reactor was on emergency diesel power. The UAE is investigating, while people familiar said it suspects Iran.• Macro/Rates: The US 30-year yield rose to 5.16%, the highest since October 2023; 10-year yields reached 4.63%. Yardeni urged the Fed to drop its easing bias, an analyst view.• Utilities/M&A: NextEra is discussing a mostly stock bid for Dominion at about $76 a share, or $66 billion equity value, according to people familiar. Talks could still fail.• China/Macro: April data weakened: retail sales rose 0.2%, industrial output 4.1%, and fixed-asset investment fell 1.6% year on year.
White House details China purchases as Trump threatens Iran over Hormuz
Trade details offered selective support, but oil, rates and geopolitical risks remained the dominant macro overhang.• Trade/China: The White House said China agreed to buy at least $17bn of US farm goods annually through 2028 and restored beef access; Beijing said talks continue and gave no specifics.• Boeing: USTR Greer said the US had “locked in” China’s purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft, with engine and agricultural details due in coming days.• Energy/Iran: Trump warned Iran its “clock is ticking” while the US and Iran stayed far apart on a Hormuz deal; a UAE nuclear-plant drone attack caused fire but no radiation or injuries.• Rates/Macro: Thirty-year Treasury yields neared a two-decade high above 5%, with markets pricing a Fed hike by March after April CPI hit 3.8%.• Energy/France: France said there is “no taboo” on an exceptional TotalEnergies tax, though no decision has been made.
Treasury pressure builds after JGB yields hit records
Overnight news added a rates overhang from Japan, fresh global health risk and sector-specific supply pressures; energy logistics showed some easing, though Russia risk persisted.• Rates/Japan: The 10-year JGB hit 2.73%, the highest since 1997, and the 30-year reached 4%, fueling bets Japanese investors could repatriate from roughly $1tn of Treasury holdings.• Health/Biotech: The WHO declared Congo and Uganda Ebola outbreaks a global emergency; Congo reported 8 confirmed cases, 336 suspected infections and 87 suspected suspected deaths, with no approved Bundibugyo-strain vaccine.• Semis: Samsung and its largest union will resume talks Monday before a May 21 deadline for a planned 18-day strike.• Energy: A US-halted tanker carrying 2mn barrels of Iraqi crude resumed its Vietnam voyage, while a Gazprom Neft Moscow refinery was targeted by drones without operational disruption.• Renewables: US wind and solar developers are rushing to qualify for expiring tax credits by July 4.
BDCs sink amid credit stress while US-China tariff relief remains preliminary
Risk appetite improved after midday US-China tariff-relief headlines, but the close was more guarded as Beijing narrowed the read-through and private-credit stress moved to the foreground. Oil-risk hedges stayed relevant because Hormuz logistics remained impaired, while company and sector news favored select defense, semiconductor-equipment and aircraft names.• Credit/BDCs: Public BDCs traded near 85% of net asset value, the deepest discount since Covid, as credit losses rose, portfolios shrank and several managers cut dividends, pressuring OBDC and FSK.• Trade/China: China first said the US agreed to lower levies on some products, then later called the reductions preliminary and said a new trade board would handle details, partly undercutting Trump’s account. Beijing also cited talks on aircraft, agriculture and export access.• Energy/Oil: Trump’s Hormuz ship-insurance facility had written no cover because no naval escort was in place, strait transits stayed depressed, and the US allowed a temporary waiver for some Russian crude sales to expire.• Defense/Taiwan: Trump said he was undecided on a $14 billion Taiwan arms package that includes Patriot interceptors, framing it as a negotiating chip.• Semis/EM: ASML signed an MoU with Tata Electronics for the planned Gujarat fab, while AI-led flows continued to favor Taiwan and South Korea over India.
BDCs price Covid-level stress as China confirms preliminary tariff-cut talks
Credit stress and trade details led the late news, with EM divergence and energy-policy shifts adding sector color.• Private Credit: Public BDCs trade near 85% of net asset value, the deepest discount since Covid, as credit losses rise, portfolios shrink and several managers cut dividends.• Trade/China: Beijing said tariff reductions were preliminary and would be handled by a new trade board, contradicting Trump’s claim that tariffs were not discussed. China also cited aircraft, agriculture and export-access negotiations.• EM/AI: India’s MSCI EM weight has fallen to about 12% from 19% last year, with $42 billion of foreign outflows since end-2024 as AI flows favor Taiwan and South Korea.• Energy/Venezuela: Caracas circulated draft oil-law regulations for private operators and deported Alex Saab, extending cooperation with Washington as US sanctions ease.
US and China agree levy cuts as Trump weighs Taiwan arms sale
Trade relief headlines helped the risk tone, but supply and geopolitics stayed unsettled across energy, defense and commodities.• Trade: China said the US agreed to lower levies on an unspecified range of products after the Beijing summit; details were not provided.• Energy: Trump returned with no concrete Hormuz reopening plan. Strait transits remained depressed, and the US let a temporary waiver for some Russian crude sales expire.• Taiwan/Defense: Trump said he is undecided on a $14 billion Taiwan arms package and called it a negotiating chip; the package includes Patriot interceptors.• Metals/India: India restricted silver-bar imports after the rupee hit a record low, adding to higher gold and silver tariffs.• Semis: ASML signed an MoU with Tata Electronics tied to Tata’s planned $11 billion Gujarat fab.
SpaceX targets June 12 IPO while Powell stays interim Fed leader
Overnight news added IPO-supply and Fed-transition details, while energy-risk mitigation and transport showed fresh operational strains.• SpaceX/IPO: SpaceX is aiming for a June 12 Nasdaq listing and could raise $80 billion or more; shareholders approved a 5-for-1 split, and Musk said he is not selling.• Fed Transition: The Fed said Powell will remain acting leader until Warsh is sworn in; timing awaits Trump’s commission and ethics divestments, with Miran and Bowman objecting to the mechanics.• Energy/Insurance: Trump’s up-to-$40 billion Hormuz ship-insurance facility has written no cover after no naval escort was established; insurance rates remain far above prewar levels.• Transit/NY: Long Island Rail Road workers began the first strike since 1994, suspending service for about 300,000 weekday riders; New York’s comptroller estimated $61 million a day in lost activity.• Autos: VinFast said Vietnamese factory spinoffs should remove $6.9 billion of debt and obligations and could speed its path to profitability.