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Stocks fall with Gulf attacks widening
Risk traded defensively as the Gulf energy shock overwhelmed early AI support and turned the Fed into an inflation-risk catalyst. Crude and gas stayed bid through the US close and worsened after hours as attacks spread across Qatar and the UAE, while Powell’s caution pushed yields and the dollar higher and left equities lower.• Energy/Gulf: Brent settled up 3.8% at $107.38 after Iran threatened Gulf energy sites, Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles and drones, and QatarEnergy confirmed extensive damage at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export hub.• Fed/Rates: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and still projected one 2026 cut, but Powell said cuts require more inflation progress and noted that some officials discussed a hike; the S&P 500 closed down 1.4% and two-year yields rose toward 3.75%.• After-Hours Energy: QatarEnergy reported a second Iranian missile wave at Ras Laffan, Shell’s Pearl GTL plant was extensively damaged, and the UAE said Habshan gas operations were suspended after missiles targeted Abu Dhabi energy assets.• Chips/AI: Micron’s AI-memory outlook beat consensus sharply, and AMD gained a Samsung HBM4 supply deal for its MI455X accelerators.
Qatar LNG site suffers further damage after second Iranian strike
Energy risk escalated again, though Trump’s warning against further Qatar attacks helped US futures recover modestly while oil stayed firm.• Qatar/LNG: QatarEnergy said a second Iranian missile wave hit several Ras Laffan LNG facilities, causing sizeable fires and “extensive further damage”; Qatar said two of three fires were contained and no injuries were reported.• Shell/Energy: QatarEnergy said Wednesday’s attack extensively damaged Shell’s Pearl GTL plant, which can process 1.6 bcf/day of gas into 140,000 b/d of liquids.• Oil/Shipping: Brent extended gains to 5%; a vessel caught fire 11 nautical miles east of Khor Fakkan after an unknown projectile hit it.• Policy/War: Trump said Israel would stop South Pars attacks unless Qatar is hit again, but WSJ reported the US had been informed and approved the strike.• Japan/FX: The BOJ held at 0.75% in an 8-1 vote and cited Middle East oil risks.
UAE gas plant shuts after Abu Dhabi intercepts missiles
Energy-risk news worsened after the close, with fresh Gulf infrastructure threats offset only partly by calls to stop attacks on civilian energy assets.• UAE/Energy: Abu Dhabi said missiles targeting Habshan gas facilities and the Bab oil field were intercepted; Habshan, which feeds ADNOC’s LNG export plant, suspended operations, with no injuries reported.• Qatar/LNG: Qatar expelled Iran’s military and security attachés and staff within 24 hours. A NASA fire-detection satellite measured the Ras Laffan blaze at 1,420MW; Bloomberg Intelligence said output could be offline for months if damage is severe.• Markets/Asia: Japan futures fell almost 3%, Kospi futures about 3.6% and Australia opened roughly 1.6% lower; the yen weakened to 159.90 per dollar.• Policy/Market Structure: The SEC approved Nasdaq’s plan to trade some stocks and ETPs in tokenized form under existing tickers.• Retail: Five Below rose 7% postmarket after FY2026 sales and EPS guidance topped consensus.
Stocks fall after Powell flags inflation risks
The Fed kept a cut in its forecasts, but Powell’s inflation caution and Gulf energy damage left risk assets weaker into the close.• Fed/Markets: The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote and still projected one 2026 cut; Powell said cuts require inflation progress, several officials discussed a possible hike, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.4%.• Energy/Gulf: QatarEnergy confirmed Iranian missile attacks caused fires and “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export hub; all personnel were accounted for and the fire was later controlled.• Oil/Rates: Brent settled up 3.8% at $107.38, while WTI finished at $96.32; two-year yields rose toward 3.75% and the dollar gained 0.5%.• Chips: Micron guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to about $33.5 billion, well above the $23.7 billion consensus, on AI-driven memory shortages.
Saudi intercepts Riyadh missiles as stocks weaken before Fed
Risk stayed defensive as Gulf attacks widened, though Saudi export rerouting and contained South Pars damage offered partial offsets to the energy shock.• Gulf/Saudi: Saudi Arabia said it intercepted four ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and eight drones in the Eastern Province, including several near a gas facility; no initial damage or injuries were reported.• Oil/Supply: Saudi exports through Yanbu averaged 4.19mn b/d over five days, more than half normal total exports and up from about 1.4mn, as the kingdom bypasses Hormuz.• LNG/Gas: QatarEnergy evacuated Ras Laffan LNG facilities as a precaution, while Iran’s gas company said South Pars output continued and the domestic network was stable.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 was down 0.7%, Nasdaq 0.6%, two-year yields rose to 3.71%, and the dollar gained 0.2% before the Fed decision.• Tech/Power: Google advanced a Michigan data-center deal requiring up to 1GW from DTE.
Oil jumps after Iran threatens Gulf energy sites
Energy and inflation risk dominated morning trading, with crude strength and hotter PPI pressuring risk assets ahead of the Fed.• Gulf/Energy: Iran named facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE as direct targets within hours; Aramco evacuated Samref and Jubail, with Al Hosn and Mesaieed also evacuating.• Oil/Gas: Brent rose more than 5% above $109; European gas gained as much as 7.9%. Iraq said Iranian gas supplies stopped, cutting 3.1GW of power generation.• Macro/Rates: February PPI rose 0.7% m/m and 3.4% y/y, the fastest in a year; traders cut odds of a 2026 Fed cut and priced two ECB hikes.• Policy/Oil: Trump waived the Jones Act for 60 days to ease domestic energy shipping costs, though analysts expect limited gasoline relief.• Defense/Iran: Centcom said US forces have struck more than 7,800 targets and damaged or destroyed 120 Iranian vessels since Feb. 28.
Oil rebounds after Iran says strikes hit South Pars gas field
Energy risk re-accelerated premarket after Iran said upstream assets were hit, cutting into earlier relief from Saudi refinery news and bond strength.• Oil/Gas: Iran state TV said strikes hit South Pars and Asaluyeh facilities; Brent briefly topped $105, and European gas futures pared losses. Bloomberg said a confirmed hit would be the war’s first targeting of Iran’s upstream oil and gas assets.• Gulf/Supply: Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s 550,000 b/d refinery, restarted after a drone-related halt, according to a person familiar, offering a partial offset to Gulf disruption.• Markets/Risk: S&P 500 futures pared gains but were still up 0.4% at 7:45 ET after the South Pars headlines.• Israel/Iran: Israel said it killed Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmaeil Khatib; Iran had not confirmed the claim.• Consumer/Staples: General Mills missed estimates as organic revenue fell 3%; Macy’s guided EPS of $1.90-$2.10, below consensus.
AMD secures Samsung HBM4 supply as Iran chokes rival Gulf crude flows
Oil slipped but supply risk stayed acute, with new data showing Iran preserving its own exports while restricting neighbors’ flows. Single-name AI news was constructive for AMD.• Oil/Shipping: Kpler showed Iranian crude made up nearly three-quarters of 27.2mn barrels exiting the Persian Gulf since March 1; other producers ran about 400,000 b/d versus 14mn normally, and Goldman put flows down 98%.• Chips/AI: Samsung agreed to be the primary HBM4 supplier for AMD’s MI455X accelerators and to provide DDR5 for AMD’s Helios system.• Gulf/Banks: The UAE central bank let lenders access up to 30% of reserve balances, eased liquidity and capital buffers, and allowed delayed NPL classification.• Oil/Routes: Iraq resumed exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan at 250,000 b/d, while China may draw up to 1mn b/d from commercial reserves, FGE said.
Brent stays above $100 amid Gulf war shipping shock
Oil was the day’s macro anchor, with Gulf escalation keeping inflation and margin pressure in focus even as US equities showed resilience and AI hardware provided a late risk offset. The close left crude firmly bid, while after-hours US strikes and broader regional attacks kept overnight risk elevated.• Oil/Shipping: Brent settled 3.2% higher at $103.42, its fourth straight close above $100, after Fujairah suspended loadings, Hormuz crossings collapsed and buyers paid more than $150 for Oman crude to replace Gulf barrels.• Gulf/Security: Israel said it killed Iran security chief Ali Larijani, Iran intensified drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, and US forces later bombed Iranian anti-ship missile sites near Hormuz after further attacks around Israel, Kuwait, Beirut and Baghdad.• Equities/AI: The S&P 500 held modest gains intraday despite oil near triple digits, while Nvidia restarted H200 production for licensed China customers and Asian chip stocks rallied on AI demand.• Airlines/Fuel: Delta and peers raised revenue views, but jet fuel and diesel spikes pressured the sector, with American flagging about $400mn of extra monthly fuel costs.• Credit/Policy: Banks benefited from reports that Fed-led rule changes could free $200bn of capital, while JPMorgan-led lenders halted a Qualtrics debt deal after investors balked at software risk.
Asian chip stocks rise while Israel expands strikes to Beirut
Risk news broadened beyond Hormuz, but Asian trading showed selective risk appetite as AI hardware led regional gains and Brent eased from the U.S. close.• Gulf/Security: Israel struck central Beirut and southern suburbs; Lebanon reported six killed and 24 injured. Iraq also said the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad faced a fresh attack.• Nuclear Risk: The IAEA said Iran reported a projectile hit the area around the Bushehr nuclear plant, with no damage or injuries, and urged restraint.• Markets/AI: Brent fell 1% to $102.4. South Korea’s Kospi rose 3.8%, Japan’s benchmark gained 2.2% and Taiwan’s Taiex added 1.4% as AI suppliers rallied.• Chips/Memory: Samsung shares rose as much as 6.5% after it said it may shift memory-chip customers to three- to five-year contracts.• Airlines/Fuel: Cathay extended Riyadh and Dubai passenger and cargo cancellations through April.
US bombs Hormuz missile sites after Iran attack kills two near Tel Aviv
Geopolitical escalation accelerated after the US struck Iranian coastal missile sites, while alternative crude routes and airline liquidity stress added sector-specific implications.• Gulf/Security: US Central Command said it used multiple 5,000-pound deep-penetrator bombs on hardened Iranian anti-ship missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz that threatened shipping.• Israel/Iran: Israeli emergency services said two people were killed near Tel Aviv after a cluster-missile attack; Kuwait said it confronted drone and missile attacks, with two minor injuries.• Oil/Shipping: Iraq and Kurdistan agreed to restart exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan route Wednesday; the pipeline previously averaged 450,000 b/d as Iraq output has fallen to about 1.5mn b/d.• Defense/Markets: The USS Gerald R. Ford is heading to port after a laundry-area fire injured two sailors, though its strike group will keep operating.• Airlines: American said higher fuel added about $400mn of costs this month and may pull forward financing for liquidity.
Brent settles at $103.42 as Nvidia restarts China H200 production
Energy stress remained the main macro overhang, but late company and policy headlines added discrete moves across chips, crypto and travel.• Oil/Shipping: Brent settled 3.2% higher at $103.42, its fourth straight close above $100, while FT said Oman crude traded above $150 as buyers replaced Gulf barrels.• Chips/China: Nvidia said it is restarting H200 production for many licensed China customers, marking progress in re-entering a market constrained by export controls.• Credit/Software: JPMorgan-led banks halted a $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal after investors balked at software and AI-disruption risk.• Travel/Shutdown: TSA absences reached 10.2% nationally, and an official warned small airports could close if the DHS funding lapse continues.• Crypto/Regulation: The SEC and CFTC issued token-taxonomy guidance saying most crypto assets are not securities, supporting Coinbase and miners.
Oil holds near $102 after Iran escalates Saudi drone attacks
Risk appetite held up, but Gulf tail risks widened: oil stayed near triple digits, Washington’s ally split deepened, and company news showed winners from disrupted supply chains.• Gulf/Energy: Iran launched almost 100 drones at Saudi Arabia on Monday, its largest single-day barrage of the war, with attacks increasingly focused on the eastern province.• Markets/Oil: International crude was about $102, WTI near $95 and the S&P 500 up 0.3% after Trump’s remarks; the 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2bp to 4.2%.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Trump said the US no longer needs help from NATO, Japan, Australia or South Korea; Bloomberg said reopening Hormuz looks unlikely without a ceasefire.• Airlines: Delta rose more than 4% as Delta, American, JetBlue and Frontier lifted revenue or unit-revenue views despite higher fuel.• Industrials/AI: Alcoa cited new orders as Gulf smelters curb output; Nvidia’s Huang said revenue can exceed $1tn.
US stocks rise while UAE and Qatar intercept Iranian missiles
Stocks opened firmer despite heavier Gulf risk, with oil off intraday highs but energy inflation spreading into fuels, fertilizer and airlines.• Markets/Oil: The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and Nasdaq 0.5% at the open; Brent traded near $102.50, while January 2027 WTI topped $75 from $68.55 last week.• Gulf/Security: Qatar intercepted a second missile wave, and the UAE said it intercepted 10 ballistic missiles and 45 drones; debris killed one Pakistani national.• Washington/Allies: NCTC Director Joe Kent resigned over the Iran war; Canada and Greece ruled out joining military operations around Hormuz.• Airlines/Fuel: Delta said jet fuel doubled since quarter start and raised fares; SAS cut some flights, while US diesel rose 6c to $5.• Company News: Qualcomm authorized a $20bn buyback and raised its dividend; Boeing delayed its commercial-unit margin target to 2027.
Israel kills Larijani as Hormuz crossings stay paralysed
Geopolitical risk stayed dominant, with confirmed leadership-targeting reports and fresh shipping data keeping energy and inflation pressure elevated, while airlines and AI infrastructure offered stock-specific offsets.• Iran/Israel: Israel said it killed Ali Larijani, Iran’s top security official; NYT said Iranian state media also confirmed his death, while some wires still noted no official Iranian response.• Shipping/Oil: WSJ said Hormuz crossings are near two ships a day versus more than 100 in peacetime, with about 1,100 ships trapped in the Gulf and 20 hit since the war began.• Airlines: Delta raised first-quarter revenue growth to the high single digits from 5%-7%, citing stronger March leisure and corporate bookings; JetBlue also cited improved demand.• Macro/Rates: Germany’s ZEW expectations index plunged to -0.5 from 58.3, far below the 39.2 estimate, as energy-price risk hit recovery hopes.• Metals/EVs: Darton said cobalt shortages may last through 2030 after Congo export curbs drove benchmark prices up more than 160%.
Oil rises after Fujairah suspends loadings
Energy risk re-accelerated in early Europe, adding stagflation pressure, while separate US bank-regulatory and Tesla battery news offered single-stock offsets.• Oil/Shipping: Fujairah suspended oil loadings at tanker terminals and a Vopak joint-venture mooring after recent strikes; Brent rose 4.3% to $103.78.• Fuel/Inflation: AAA said US diesel reached $5.044 a gallon, the first move above $5 since December 2022, raising costs for freight, farming and construction.• Iraq/Hormuz: Iraq said it is negotiating with Iran to let some tankers pass after output fell to about 1.2mn b/d from 4.4mn.• Banks/Capital: Bloomberg said Fed-led rule changes could free about $200bn of capital for major US banks, supporting buybacks, trading and lending.• Autos/Batteries: Tesla and LG Energy confirmed a $4.3bn Michigan LFP battery plant for Megapack systems, with production due next year.
Stocks rise after oil falls on reserve-release hopes
Risk assets finished firmer as crude’s early spike faded on reserve-release signals and tentative Hormuz transit, letting Treasuries rally and megacap technology retake leadership. The close was not clean: fresh attacks around Fujairah and UAE gas infrastructure pushed oil higher again in late Asia, keeping the energy-risk premium alive for the next session.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent swung from above $106 to a $100.21 settlement after the IEA said more reserves could be released and Trump suggested Hormuz could reopen soon, but a tanker strike near Fujairah later lifted Brent back toward $103.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 rose 1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2% as oil retreated; Treasury yields fell 3-5 bps, helped by lower crude and a softer New York manufacturing print.• Tech/AI: Nvidia rose after saying Blackwell and Rubin could generate at least $1 trillion through 2027, while Meta’s up-to-$27bn Nebius infrastructure deal supported the AI buildout theme.• Energy Producers: TotalEnergies flagged shutdowns across Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, and a strike suspended operations at ADNOC and Occidental’s Shah gas venture.• Transport/Airlines: Gulf disruption persisted as British Airways extended regional cancellations and UAE airspace briefly closed before reopening.
Oil rebounds after tanker is struck near Fujairah
Risk tone turned more cautious in Asia as Gulf shipping and airspace disruptions outweighed Monday’s oil relief, while semiconductor supply commentary stayed supportive for memory names.• Oil/Shipping: Brent rose 2.7% to about $103 and WTI traded near $96 after a tanker anchored near Fujairah was struck by an unknown projectile with minor damage and no injuries.• Energy/Geopolitics: UAE authorities said Fujairah Oil Industry Zone was hit by drone strikes again, causing a fire, while the country briefly closed and then reopened its airspace.• Conflict: Israel said it launched wide-scale strikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran and Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut; G7 leaders urged de-escalation in Lebanon.• Semis: SK Group’s chairman said the memory-chip shortage may last four to five more years, with wafer supply lagging demand by more than 20%.• Credit: Morgan Stanley projected direct-lending defaults could reach 8%, citing leveraged software borrowers exposed to AI disruption.
Nvidia rises on $1 trillion chip outlook as UAE gas strike widens energy attacks
Tech leadership and lower crude supported risk, but attacks on energy assets and transport bottlenecks kept supply-chain risk active.• Tech/AI: Nvidia said Blackwell and Rubin chips should generate at least $1 trillion through 2027, up from its prior $500bn-through-2026 frame; shares rose as much as 4.8%.• Energy/Geopolitics: A drone strike set the UAE’s Shah gas field ablaze, suspending operations at the ADNOC-Occidental venture; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 98 drones in 24 hours.• Markets/Oil: Brent settled down 2.8% at $100.21 and WTI fell 5.3% to $93.50, while the S&P 500 closed up 1% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%.• Airlines/Transport: The FAA proposed cutting O’Hare’s daily flight cap to 2,608, and unpaid TSA staff shortages drove longer airport lines.
Oil stays lower after Trump says Hormuz could reopen soon
Markets mostly absorbed Trump’s Iran remarks, with crude lower and equities higher despite fresh threats and mixed signals on diplomacy.• Markets/Oil: NYT said Trump’s comments did not move markets much; Brent was near $101, down slightly, WTI hovered below $95, and the S&P 500 was up 1%.• Hormuz/Geopolitics: Trump said Rubio will name countries helping with ship passage, but Germany rejected military participation and the EU said there was no appetite to expand Operation Aspides; Trump also said ships must be willing to transit.• Iran/Kharg: Trump claimed the US hit more than 7,000 Iranian targets, destroyed more than 30 mine-laying ships and kept Kharg oil infrastructure as a “five minutes notice” option.• Conflict/Airlines: Iran’s president called war-ending talks “meaningless,” while British Airways extended Gulf cancellations to May 31 for Dubai, Amman, Bahrain and Tel Aviv.• Metals/Plumbing: LME electronic trading resumed around 5:30 p.m. London after a technical halt across metals contracts.
Oil falls after IEA says more reserves can be released
Oil and rates got the clearest relief signal, while the Hormuz coalition effort looked more politically constrained and US-China trade talks sounded constructive.• Oil/IEA: WTI fell 3.6% and Brent traded near $102 after the IEA said its 400mn-barrel release had calmed markets and more reserves could be released if needed; more than 170mn barrels will come from US storage.• Rates/Macro: Treasuries rallied, with yields down 3-5 bps, as oil retreated. New York manufacturing slipped to -0.2 versus 3.9 expected, while industrial production rose 0.2%.• Gulf/Shipping: France, Greece and Italy resisted sending forces to Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu bypass drew 27 crude carriers, up from 11 Friday, with shipments near 3.1mn b/d.• Deals/Stocks: Public Storage agreed to buy National Storage in an all-stock deal valued at $10.5bn including debt; Structure Therapeutics rose after its obesity pill showed about 15% weight loss.
UAE output halves while oil reverses on Hormuz transit hopes
Oil gave back gains after limited Hormuz transits and Fujairah’s restart offset a deeper UAE supply hit; US futures firmed while AI infrastructure drove premarket movers.• Oil/Supply: UAE output has fallen to about 2.0mn b/d from 3.56mn in February, a person familiar said, as storage fills under Hormuz’s effective closure.• Hormuz/Shipping: Fujairah resumed oil loading after the latest drone-related fire, and a Pakistan-owned tanker carrying Abu Dhabi crude transited the strait.• Policy/Allies: The UK and Germany resisted joining a wider war; Starmer said London could offer autonomous mine-hunting and anti-drone assets but made no decision.• AI/Tech: Meta signed a five-year Nebius AI-infrastructure deal worth up to $27bn; NBIS rose 13% and META about 2% premarket.• War/Lebanon: Israel said it began a ground maneuver in southern Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket fire; Germany warned against a broader offensive.
Oil rises after Fujairah is hit again
Energy-supply risk re-intensified on fresh Gulf infrastructure damage, while AI hardware and China EV news added single-stock angles.• Oil/Gulf: Fujairah, the UAE bypass port outside Hormuz, was hit again; people familiar said damage was being assessed and oil loading was suspended. Brent moved back above $106 and WTI traded near $101.• Energy Producers: TotalEnergies said production was shut or shutting in Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, representing about 15% of its total output.• Shipping/Fuel: India is prioritizing safe passage for six LPG tankers carrying 270,000 tons; 22 India-flagged vessels remain stuck, including six LPG ships, four crude tankers and one LNG carrier.• AI Hardware: Hon Hai’s quarterly profit fell 2.4% to NT$45.2bn, missing NT$59.9bn consensus and raising concerns around Nvidia server demand.• China EVs: BYD jumped as much as 8.3% on local reports of roughly 100,000 Brazil export orders.
Sinopec cuts refinery runs as US futures climb
Risk tone improved even with physical energy stress spreading into Asian refining and transport; policy responses stayed defensive rather than coordinated.• Oil/Supply: Sinopec cut March processing about 10% from plan, excluding maintenance, implying a more than 500,000 b/d hit; FGE expects Chinese refiners to cut runs by 1.5mn b/d.• Markets: US equity futures climbed to session highs, Brent traded around $104, and Hang Seng Tech rose more than 2%.• Gulf/Aviation: Dubai flights resumed after a temporary suspension tied to the fuel-tank fire; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 38 drones in the east.• Energy Policy: South Korea plans to lift nuclear utilization to about 80%, remove a coal-generation cap and release 22.46mn barrels of crude reserves over three months.• China/AI: Alibaba is preparing an enterprise agentic-AI service based on Qwen, people familiar told Bloomberg.