May 29, 2026

Oil-sands wildfire risk rises as SoftBank pledges €75bn for French AI sites

Energy supply risk broadened beyond Hormuz, while AI infrastructure commitments and media-deal financing dominated company news.• Energy/Oil: Alberta reported six out-of-control wildfires in Lac la Biche, with blazes 11-19km from Cenovus, Canadian Natural and ConocoPhillips sites totaling about 500,000 b/d of oil-sands output.• AI Infrastructure: SoftBank pledged at least €45bn for French data centers targeting 3.1GW by 2031, potentially rising to €75bn and 5GW; partners and customers are not set.• Media/Credit: Paramount Skydance is preparing roughly $50bn of debt for its $110bn Warner Bros. Discovery bid, after a JPMorgan-led Warner bridge refinancing drew more than $30bn of orders.• Health: Congo confirmed 260 Ebola cases and expanded testing, while hundreds of samples remain untested.• Insurance: WSJ found five top home insurers paid nothing on more than 44% of claims resolved last year.

Oil risk rises after Iran hits Kuwaiti base

Geopolitical risk re-hardened around Hormuz, while defense procurement news stayed supportive for contractors and several single-name regulatory pressures emerged.• Iran/Hormuz: An Iranian missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base injured several Americans and destroyed at least one Reaper drone, Bloomberg reported. Treasury also said US persons cannot accept Iranian safe-passage services, even without payment.• Shipping/Oil: Qatar rejected permanent Hormuz transit fees but said temporary mine-clearing charges are negotiable; shipowners were increasingly optimistic that transits can recover with US help.• Defense: AUKUS agreed to develop advanced underwater drones, and Japan proposed faster co-development of air-to-air missiles and SM-3 interceptors as Iran-war usage depletes stocks.• Single Names: Tesla faces a China consumer lawsuit over FSD claims; Amazon, eBay and Zalando are opposing Austria’s proposed €2-per-parcel levy.

Hegseth omits Taiwan and Iran in Shangri-La speech after tunnels discovered at Shanxi mine

Geopolitical signals remained mixed: Hegseth's softer China tone and silence on Taiwan and Iran contrasted with stark warnings from Australia on subsea and maritime threats. The Shanxi mining disaster added a near-term supply squeeze to coking coal markets.• Defense/Geopolitics: Hegseth called US-China ties "better than they've been in many years" at the Shangri-La Dialogue, praising Asian allies' defense spending while notably omitting Taiwan and the Iran conflict; he sidestepped a question on delayed arms sales to Taipei.• Coal/Commodities: A gas explosion at a Shanxi mine killed 82, and nearby mines halted work; S&P Global flagged a short-term coking coal supply squeeze with inspections likely pushing prices higher.• Australia/Security: Australian Defense Minister Marles warned the "seabed is becoming a battlefield" and choke points face modern-era pressures, citing attacks on subsea cables and Hormuz's closure.• Hormuz/Shipping: WSJ reported ships are sailing "dark" through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid Iranian attacks, creating a small relief valve for energy markets.

Trump delays Iran decision as US appeals tariff-refund order

Policy risk stayed active after Trump delayed a call on the Iran proposal, while trade and deal headlines added idiosyncratic moves.• Iran/Oil: Trump met cabinet officials for two hours but postponed a final decision on the US-Iran proposal; NYT said Iranian hard-liners are trying to derail concessions, with Tehran’s negotiator saying no step comes before Washington acts.• Trade/Tariffs: The administration will appeal a trade-court order requiring customs to recalculate billions of dollars of unlawful Trump-era tariff collections, risking more uncertainty around importer refunds.• Deals/IPO: Yum is in exclusive talks to sell Pizza Hut to LongRange; OpenAI has discussed adding Citi and JPMorgan to its IPO bank group.• Gas/Credit: Hedge funds turned net short Henry Hub gas for the first time since 2024; BofA warned three large private BDCs risk junk downgrades within two quarters if redemptions stay high.

Stocks hit records after Trump says Iran decision is imminent

Risk appetite improved on Iran diplomacy, but shipping and policy risks stayed visible across energy, autos and crypto.• Markets/Oil: The Dow rose 0.7% after crossing 51,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were poised for record closes. Brent settled down 1.7% at $92.05.• Iran/Hormuz: Trump said he was making a “final determination” and would lift the US counter-blockade, but Iran said no final agreement exists and nuclear issues are not part of current talks. CENTCOM warned it would strike mine-laying vessels.• Tech/AI: Dell rose 35% to a record $429 after forecasting fiscal-year revenue up to $169bn, above the $142bn analyst estimate.• Autos/Trade: The US is expected to seek at least 50% US-sourced auto content under USMCA; a separate House bill could restrict Mercedes-Benz over Chinese ownership links.• Crypto: The CFTC cleared crypto perpetual futures for Coinbase and Kalshi, though Jamie Dimon attacked the stablecoin bill fight.

Oil heads for biggest monthly drop since 2020 on US-Iran deal hopes

US equities opened modestly higher, but the cleaner macro tailwind from lower oil was offset by fresh evidence that Hormuz risks have not disappeared.• Oil/Geopolitics: Front-month crude was down about 19% in May, on pace for its biggest monthly drop since March 2020; Brent traded near $91-$92, with Trump approval and Iranian confirmation still absent.• Hormuz Shipping: Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said several vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz were attacked this week, contradicting the calmer tape; Bloomberg said 29 of 109 stranded large non-Iranian tankers have crossed.• Space: AST SpaceMobile fell 16%, Rocket Lab 5% and Intuitive Machines over 6% after Blue Origin’s New Glenn explosion; Amazon was slightly lower.• Deals: IFF rose after confirming a $4.3bn sale of its food-ingredients unit to CVC while retaining 10%.• Biotech: Replimune jumped after the FDA agreed to urgently reconsider its melanoma-drug application.

Russian drone hits Romania as banks flag stronger trading and deal revenue

Geopolitical risk broadened beyond the Gulf, while AI demand and capital-markets activity remained clear equity supports.• NATO/Defense: A Russian drone hit an apartment building in Romania, injuring two people; Bucharest called it a serious escalation, scrambled F-16s and requested more allied anti-drone capabilities.• Banks: JPMorgan said markets and investment-banking revenue could slightly beat expected gains; Goldman said M&A may approach 2021 records, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo guided to mid-teens trading or banking growth.• Oil/Geopolitics: A source said the US and Iran reached a preliminary 60-day ceasefire-extension deal pending Trump approval; Vance said language points remain, and equities rose while oil fell.• Autos: Toyota halted a next-generation Lexus EV slated for 2027, citing weak demand and the loss of US subsidies.• Deals/Industrials: WSJ said IFF is near a $4bn-plus sale of its food-ingredients unit to CVC.

Dell surges after AI-server revenue jumps

AI infrastructure stayed the main equity impulse, but overnight news added operational risk for Amazon’s satellite plans and fresh consumer-credit stress.• Dell/AI: Dell shares jumped nearly 40% after hours, with revenue up 88% to $43.8bn, AI-server revenue of $16.1bn and a new $9.7bn Pentagon software-and-services agreement.• Space/Amazon: Blue Origin’s New Glenn exploded during a Florida hotfire test; FT reported severe damage to its only launch pad, threatening this year’s launch schedule for Amazon Leo satellites.• Consumer Credit: US credit-card balances 90 days delinquent reached 13.12% in 1Q, the highest in 15 years, with total balances at $1.25tn and average card rates at 21%.• Media/Regulation: Disney accused the FCC of using accelerated ABC license reviews to suppress speech; Chair Brendan Carr cited DEI and public-interest obligations.• SpaceX: Bloomberg said SpaceX cut its IPO valuation target to at least $1.8tn from a reported goal above $2tn.

Dell raises AI-server outlook as oil slips on tentative Iran truce

AI infrastructure demand remained the clearest equity-positive signal, while crude softened on still-unapproved Iran diplomacy and retail earnings split sharply after hours.• Dell/AI: Dell raised its fiscal-year revenue outlook to about $167bn, including $60bn of AI server sales; shares rose about 4% late after $24.4bn of quarterly AI orders.• Oil/Geopolitics: WTI fell toward $88 and Brent held below $94 after reports of a tentative 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension; Trump has not approved the terms, and Iran has not confirmed the US account.• Retail: Gap fell roughly 14% after hours after cutting annual sales growth guidance to 1%-2%, while Costco gained on adjusted EPS of $4.93, above estimates.• Pfizer/China: Pfizer signed an oncology collaboration with Innovent worth up to $10.5bn, including $650mn upfront.• Autos/AV: Texas filings showed Tesla has 42 registered robotaxis, versus Waymo’s 577.

Anthropic tops OpenAI valuation as Lilly regains $1 trillion market cap

AI/private-market exuberance and health-care momentum offset a steadier oil tape, while rails and fertilizer names absorbed fresh regulatory shocks.• AI: Anthropic raised $65bn at a $965bn valuation, above OpenAI, and said annualized revenue is nearing $50bn; it also launched Opus 4.8.• Health Care: Eli Lilly rose over 4% and moved back above $1tn in market value after CVS Caremark restored Zepbound to preferred formularies from October and agreed to cover Foundayo from June 1.• Rails: UNP and NSC fell as the Surface Transportation Board paused review of their $72bn merger and gave the companies until July 27 to supplement the filing.• Fertilizer: FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson said the agency opened an industrywide antitrust probe into fertilizer prices; CF, NTR and MOS traded lower.• Oil/Geopolitics: FT/NYT described a 60-day draft Hormuz framework with possible sanctions relief, but Iran has not confirmed it and Trump disputed parts.

Oil pares gains after Axios reports US-Iran ceasefire deal awaits Trump approval

Markets focused on a reported US-Iran ceasefire extension, while US data kept the growth-inflation mix uncomfortable and deal/earnings news drove sharp single-name moves.• Oil/Geopolitics: Axios reported the US and Iran are near a ceasefire-extension deal pending Trump approval; Brent pared gains to about $93, while gold erased losses and Treasury yields slipped.• Macro/Rates: April PCE rose 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y, core rose 0.2% and 3.3%; 1Q GDP was revised down to 1.6%, claims rose to 215,000, and new-home sales fell 6.2%.• M&A/Gaming: Fertitta agreed to buy Caesars for $31 a share, valuing equity at $5.7bn and enterprise value at $17.6bn, with a go-shop through July 11.• Retail: Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Kohl’s rallied after better-than-feared results, led by DLTR comps up 3.5% and BBY comps up 2%.• Defense/Drones: Drone stocks jumped on a WSJ report that the Trump team is exploring funding deals; UMAC rose 50%, RCAT 25%, AVAV 15% and KTOS 13%.

Temu fined by EU as JD.com faces subsidy probe

Regulatory risk around China-linked platforms moved to the foreground, while early US risk tone softened with oil still elevated and software strength concentrated in Snowflake.• China/EU Platforms: The EU fined Temu €200mn for failing to prevent unsafe toys and chargers on its marketplace and gave it two months to propose fixes or face periodic penalties.• China/EU Deals: Brussels opened an in-depth subsidy review of JD.com’s €2.2bn Ceconomy bid, citing possible Chinese state-linked financing, tax incentives and grants.• Software/AI: Snowflake rose 38% premarket after its raised outlook and $6bn Amazon chip-access deal; Salesforce remained down about 2% on softer current-quarter revenue guidance.• Macro/Oil: Brent traded around $94, up about 2%, while S&P 500 futures pointed lower and emerging-market stocks snapped a week-long rally.• Health Care: GSK said bepirovirsen functionally cured hepatitis B in 19%-20% of late-stage trial patients.

Brent jumps after US and Iran exchange new Hormuz strikes

Brent crude rallied above $96 as the US and Iran traded fresh drone and missile strikes near Hormuz, dashing deal hopes. Treasuries fell, metals eased and South Africa telegraphed its first rate hike in three years on oil-driven inflation. In single-stock news, Nio jumped on a new electric SUV; Eli Lilly vowed global launches amid drug-price pressure.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose ~3% to $96.15 after US forces hit a Bandar Abbas drone-control station and Kuwait intercepted hostile missiles and drones; Iran’s IRGC said it retaliated against the launch base and threatened more decisive action.• Iran/Treasury: The US sanctioned Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority for extortion, while Trump said no one nation would control the waterway, though officials described strikes as defensive and said the ceasefire holds.• Macro/Rates: Ten-year Treasury yields added 5 bps to 4.53% as oil jumped; South Africa’s central bank is expected to hike 25 bps to 7% on oil-driven inflation.• Nio/EVs: Nio shares surged up to 10% after launching its ES9, China’s largest electric SUV, at a price below pre-sale levels, with Morgan Stanley seeing order support.• Lilly/Drug Pricing: Eli Lilly said it will continue global drug launches despite Trump’s Most-Favored-Nation pricing proposal, and noted Zepbound growth is expanding the obesity market rather than shifting share.