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Oil jumps after Iran reportedly attacks targets near Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitical risk overtook a mixed earnings session, lifting crude and Treasury yields while results drove sharp rotations. After hours, strong software and travel outlooks improved sentiment, although legal and aerospace risks lingered.• Oil/Rates: Brent settled 3.8% higher at $82.49 and the 10-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.68% after Fars reported Iranian attacks near Hormuz, following Tehran's earlier push for shipping restrictions.• Earnings: Eli Lilly gained after raising annual sales guidance, but Western Digital and Sandisk fell despite strong results as AI expectations proved too high. Honeywell Aerospace sank about 20% after supply constraints forced a guidance cut.• After Hours: Atlassian surged as much as 39% on 28% revenue growth and above-consensus guidance, while Airbnb rallied 11% after lifting its growth and margin outlook.• Policy/Legal: Solar names gained after Trump finalized a 15% tariff and minimum import prices. Meta faced a $942 million child-safety order, while the FAA ordered inspections of 471 in-service Boeing 737 Max jets.
Atlassian surges on outlook as Meta faces $942 million child-safety order
After-hours software strength contrasted with fresh legal and aerospace risks, while China’s trade data and copper supported cyclical demand signals.• Atlassian: TEAM jumped as much as 39% after quarterly revenue rose 28% to $1.77 billion and first-quarter guidance exceeded consensus.• Meta: A New Mexico judge ordered META to pay $942 million, including a new $567 million fund, and adopt added protections for minors. Meta plans to appeal.• Boeing: The FAA directed inspections of 471 in-service 737 Max jets for possible cracks around a front-door structural component, effective Sept. 10.• China/Copper: July exports rose 23.9%, above forecasts, while imports gained 27.5%. LME copper advanced 0.6% to $14,193.50, putting it on track for a record close.• AI Infrastructure: Firmus raised $2 billion from Coatue, Nvidia, Blackstone vehicles and Jane Street to expand Asia-Pacific AI data centers.
Oil extends gains after Fars reports Iranian attacks in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s reported attacks near Hormuz reinforced the inflationary risk-off tone, while after-hours earnings and a finalized solar tariff drove sharp company moves.• Oil/Rates: Fars reported that Iran attacked “hostile targets” in the strait after explosions near Qeshm Island. Brent settled 3.8% higher at $82.49, while the 10-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.68%.• SpaceX: Shares reversed the lockup pressure and gained 6.1% despite 912 million shares becoming eligible for sale.• Travel: Airbnb rallied 11% after raising revenue growth guidance to at least the mid-teens and its margin forecast to at least 35.5%.• Solar: Trump signed a 15% tariff and minimum import prices for solar components, effective Dec. 4.• Ad-Tech M&A: Nielsen agreed to buy DoubleVerify for $13.60 a share; DoubleVerify gained more than 10% after hours.
Oil jumps after Iran seeks to bar US ships from Hormuz
Geopolitical risk lifted energy, while sharp company-specific selloffs and a major chip investment drove a mixed US session.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose 3.5% above $82 after Fars reported that an Iran-Oman draft would bar US and Israeli ships and impose fees. Washington opposes restrictions, and Iran’s supreme leader has not clearly approved the plan.• Honeywell Aerospace: Shares fell about 20% after 2026 sales-growth guidance was cut to 4%-5% from 7%-9% because of supply constraints.• United Wholesale: Shares plunged a record 49% after a $452 million loss prompted the mortgage lender to suspend its dividend and secure a $2.05 billion equity investment.• Tesla/SpaceX: The companies plan a $16.8 billion first phase of a Texas semiconductor plant targeting one terawatt of annual compute capacity.
Lilly raises outlook as jobless claims underscore labor resilience
Stronger labor data and Lilly’s beat contrasted with new share supply at SpaceX and weak consumer demand before the open.• Eli Lilly: Shares rose 3%-4% after revenue jumped 48% to $22.97 billion, while annual sales guidance increased to $85-$87 billion.• Macro/Rates: Initial claims were 199,000 versus 205,000 expected, while second-quarter productivity rose 1.4% annualized and unit labor costs increased 1.3%.• SpaceX: A lockup expired on 911.5 million shares worth about $100 billion, more than doubling the freely tradable share count.• Celsius: Shares fell as much as 18% after revenue missed estimates and namesake-brand sales dropped 12%.• Papa John’s: The company cut its outlook and suspended its dividend as North American comparable sales fell 8.3%.• Nuclear: Oklo’s Groves test reactor reached self-sustaining criticality under an Energy Department pilot program.
Storage stocks tumble after strong results fail lofty AI expectations
AI-linked hardware led the risk-off tone, while turnaround plans drove sharp gains in European consumer and advertising shares.• AI/Storage: Western Digital fell more than 14% premarket and Sandisk dropped 7% despite strong results. Nasdaq futures slipped 0.35%, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 4.6% and SK Hynix lost 10%.• WPP: Shares surged 25% after second-quarter revenue less pass-through costs fell 2.8%, versus the 6.3% decline analysts expected, signaling progress on its turnaround.• Diageo: Shares jumped as much as 11% after the company targeted $1 billion of savings over three years and forecast low-to-mid-single-digit operating-profit growth.• Cybersecurity: China opened a formal national-security review of Palo Alto Networks products sold in the country, without providing further details.
Moderna wins flu-shot approval as China tax fears hit Hong Kong financials
Overnight news favored select health-care and European industrial names, while Chinese tax enforcement hit financials and Fed developments kept rate risk elevated.• Moderna: The FDA approved mFlusiva for adults aged 50-64 and granted accelerated approval for those 65 and older, reversing its initial refusal to review the application.• China Financials: AIA sank as much as 9.2%, Prudential 6.5% and HSBC more than 2% after reports of 20% taxes on gains from offshore policies.• Fed: Daly backed the July hold but said persistent inflation could require faster action. The WSJ separately reported that Trump repeatedly called Chair Warsh, raising independence concerns.• Siemens: Siemens lifted adjusted EPS guidance to €11.50 from €11.10 as data-center and software demand drove 42% free-cash-flow growth.
Shopify surges on outlook as Alphabet slides after DeepMind shake-up
US trading was defined by sharp single-stock dispersion and shifting rate expectations. Hawkish Fed remarks pressured duration during the cash session, while after-hours guidance misses renewed pressure on richly valued technology shares.• Rates/Commodities: Weak private hiring competed with sticky services inflation and calls from Kashkari and Daly for tighter policy. Markets nevertheless reduced expected year-end hikes, helping gold hold near $4,260, while copper reached a record on AI demand, supply disruptions and tariffs.• AI/Technology: Alphabet fell about 4% after a DeepMind leadership overhaul, while reported US restrictions on Chinese optical components and China's drone export controls reinforced trade risk. SpaceX sank more than 10% on its long cash-burn outlook, and AppLovin dropped as much as 25% after hours on soft guidance.• Earnings/Winners: Shopify surged as much as 33.8% after its revenue-growth outlook beat consensus. Lilly gained 7% on stronger sales and raised guidance, while Moderna's flu-shot approval improved its commercial outlook.• Energy/Geopolitics: Oil was mixed as an unconfirmed Hormuz shipping framework competed with Houthi threats and Iran said any reopening remained conditional on US actions.
AppLovin plunges on soft outlook as gold surges on reduced rate-hike bets
After-hours trading punished weak guidance and discounted equity issuance, while stronger consumer-platform results offered selective support. Gold extended its rally after rate expectations softened.• AppLovin: Shares fell as much as 25% after $1.92 billion in revenue missed consensus and third-quarter sales guidance was soft.• Gold/Rates: Gold held near $4,260 after a 4.1% surge as markets priced one Fed hike by year-end, down from two last week. Cook separately reiterated that she was prepared to raise rates.• Celestica: Shares dropped 11% after the company sought $3 billion in equity at up to a 15% discount.• Block: Shares gained about 3% after adjusted EPS beat estimates and full-year guidance rose to $4.02.• Expedia: Revenue growth guidance increased to 9%-10% from 6%-9% after resilient travel bookings.
Alphabet slides on changes at DeepMind as copper hits a record
Alphabet's AI leadership upheaval pressured its shares, while the Nasdaq retreated and commodities diverged amid conditional Hormuz diplomacy and record copper.• Alphabet: Shares fell about 4% after Demis Hassabis moved to chair and chief scientist, Koray Kavukcuoglu took operational control, and Jeff Dean left with three veterans to launch an Alphabet-backed startup.• Hormuz/Oil: Iran said it agreed with Oman on route coordinates, but Iran’s leadership had not approved the plan and reopening remained conditional on US actions. Brent finished slightly higher while WTI slipped.• Copper: New York futures rose 1.3% to a record $6.703 a pound, supported by AI-related demand, mine disruption and US tariffs.• Shake Shack: Shares jumped 9% after Starboard disclosed a stake worth several hundred million dollars.• Uber: Shares fell 6% after third-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of 84-88 cents put the midpoint below the 87-cent consensus, despite 12% revenue growth.
Shopify surges on outlook as Kashkari urges gradual rate increases
Rate expectations turned more hawkish even as private hiring cooled, while company results drove unusually large single-stock moves.• Fed/Macro: Kashkari said the Fed should start slowly raising rates. ADP payrolls rose 44,000 after a revised 95,000 gain, while ISM services edged up to 54.1; its prices index remained above 70 and employment contracted.• Shopify: Shares surged as much as 33.8% after third-quarter revenue growth guidance in the low-30% range topped the 27% consensus.• CVS: Shares reversed to a roughly 6% decline despite raised 2026 guidance after management warned Caremark membership will fall in 2027 under its new pricing model.• Lilly: Shares gained 7% after quarterly revenue jumped 48% and the company raised full-year sales guidance to $85 billion-$87 billion.
SpaceX slides past 10% as China tightens drone export curbs
Premarket trading stayed selective: heavy AI spending pressured SpaceX, while trade retaliation and uncertain Hormuz diplomacy kept geopolitical risk elevated. Strong results supported several cyclicals.• SpaceX: Shares extended their premarket decline to more than 10%, around $111. Musk targeted $1 trillion of revenue by 2030, while Morgan Stanley expects negative free cash flow through 2035.• US-China Trade: China tightened drone and spare-parts export controls to the US and sanctioned several American companies in retaliation for wider US technology restrictions.• Oil/Hormuz: Axios reported a proposed 60-day shipping arrangement with separate inbound and outbound lanes and no fees. Oil rebounded after Houthi militants threatened shipping; the proposal remains unconfirmed.• Carlyle: Distributable earnings rose 9.6% to $472.3 million, or $1.07 a share, beating 91 cents, as exits improved.• Honda: Shares rose nearly 4% after Honda raised its annual operating-profit forecast 30% to ¥650 billion on US hybrid demand and a weaker yen.
China’s services growth hits two-year low as US weighs Chinese optical-component ban
Asian growth concerns deepened, while AI infrastructure produced both trade risk and selective earnings strength.• China/Macro: RatingDog’s services PMI fell to 50.4, its lowest since September 2024, from 54.1; official data also showed services contracting.• AI/Trade: Chinese optical suppliers Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink fell 8.6% and 6.9% after Reuters reported that the FCC was drafting an import ban. The proposal is unconfirmed, and Jefferies called it unlikely.• AI/Chips: Infineon forecast €4.7 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue, above €4.6 billion expected, as AI data-center power-chip demand strengthened.• AI/Credit: Banks plan to refinance $15 billion of debt for an Anthropic-leased Texas campus. The bonds are expected to be speculative grade because Google’s backstop starts only after completion.
Stocks rally after Hormuz deal hopes drive oil lower
US risk assets rallied into the close as hopes for a near-term Hormuz agreement reversed oil’s gains, eased inflation pressure and pulled Treasury yields lower. After-hours trading turned selective as heavy AI spending punished technology names, while a hawkish Fed signal limited enthusiasm.• Hormuz/Markets: Brent fell 5% after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could come within two days. The Dow gained about 1,000 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq added more than 2%; yields declined three to four basis points. Iran later disputed reported talks, keeping geopolitical risk alive. Kansas City Fed President Schmid separately said policy was not restrictive and needed tightening.• AI/Spending: SpaceX dropped more than 8% after $15.8 billion of AI capital spending exceeded estimates and management projected similarly heavy outlays. AMD fell 6% despite stronger revenue guidance, while Nvidia recovered after SpaceX named it the exclusive data-center supplier.• Corporate Results: Caterpillar jumped 9.3% on record revenue and a large earnings beat, and Palantir extended its post-results rally. Spotify fell on weak guidance, while Chipotle slid after Minnesota linked a salmonella outbreak to restaurant visits.
SpaceX slides as Schmid calls for tighter Fed policy
Late trading focused on persistent AI-spending pressure at SpaceX, a direct Starlink threat to wireless incumbents and a hawkish Fed signal; Tehran also disputed reported diplomatic progress.• SpaceX: Shares extended their postmarket drop to more than 8%. CFO Bret Johnsen said each of the next two quarters should resemble the second quarter’s $18.4 billion of capex; management targeted $100 billion of annual recurring revenue by year-end.• Telecom: AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell about 1% after Gwynne Shotwell said SpaceX intends to build a terrestrial network using EchoStar spectrum and expects to take customers from the three carriers.• Fed: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said policy is not restrictive and that returning inflation to 2% will require tighter policy.• Iran: Tehran denied knowledge of talks that Trump claimed were underway and scheduled for Monday, contradicting the US president’s account.
SpaceX slides after AI capital spending exceeds estimates
After-hours trading turned selective as heavy AI spending punished otherwise strong results, while drugmakers delivered cleaner beats and wildfire liability risk increased.• SpaceX: Shares fell about 5% after revenue beat estimates at $7.8 billion, as $15.8 billion of AI capex exceeded forecasts and a potential 911.5 million-share unlock loomed Thursday.• Nvidia: Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia exclusively for data-center capacity, briefly lifting Nvidia from a 1% after-hours loss into positive territory.• AMD: Shares dropped 6% after its $13 billion third-quarter revenue outlook topped consensus but missed elevated expectations; data-center sales more than doubled to $6.7 billion.• Edison: Los Angeles County officials concluded Southern California Edison equipment caused the Eaton Fire, which killed 19 people and damaged or destroyed more than 9,000 properties.• Amgen: The company raised annual guidance after revenue and earnings beat estimates, but ended early development of obesity candidate AMG 513.
Dow rallies to record after Hormuz optimism deepens oil selloff
Risk appetite strengthened as easing energy inflation supported equities and bonds, while dealmaking and company-specific headlines drove sharp moves.• Markets/Oil: Brent extended its drop to 5%, helping send Treasury yields three to four basis points lower. The Dow gained about 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq topped 2%.• P&G/Deal: Procter & Gamble agreed to buy supplement maker Thorne for $3.8 billion, expanding its beauty and wellness portfolio.• Canada/Space: Telesat won a military satellite contract worth up to C$2.7 billion; Telesat jumped 32% and supplier MDA gained 16%.• Chipotle: Shares fell as much as 8.5% after Minnesota linked 75 interviewed patients to Chipotle visits during a salmonella outbreak. The chain removed affected jalapeños.• Novo Nordisk: Novo raised its 2026 outlook, but ADRs fell as much as 5.7%, signaling investors wanted stronger relief from GLP-1 pressure.
Oil reverses lower after Bessent says a Hormuz deal may come within two days
Hormuz optimism pressured energy prices, while strong industrial earnings contrasted with weaker streaming guidance.• Hormuz/Oil: Brent fell 2.4%, reversing earlier gains, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come today or tomorrow. No agreement was confirmed; a cargo ship was struck near Oman, and Gulf oil flows remain at 36% of prewar levels.• Caterpillar: Shares jumped 9.3% premarket after adjusted earnings of $8.17 a share beat $6.22 expected. Revenue rose 24% to a record $20.54 billion.• ADM: The crop trader raised adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.60 from $4.15-$4.70 as biofuel demand strengthened; quarterly EPS also beat estimates.• Spotify: Shares fell more than 5% after third-quarter user and operating-income guidance missed expectations, despite premium subscribers reaching 300 million.
Prologis agrees $18.8 billion Segro takeover as BP profit more than doubles
Major corporate deals and strong European earnings supported risk appetite, while constrained Hormuz traffic kept energy risk elevated.• Prologis/Segro: Prologis agreed to buy Segro for £14 billion ($18.8 billion), mostly in stock, at a 39% premium.• BP: Second-quarter adjusted profit rose 144% to $5.73 billion, beating estimates; BP also started a sale process for Archaea Energy.• HSBC: Pretax profit climbed 60% to $10.1 billion, above consensus, prompting a new $1 billion buyback.• Hormuz: Kpler recorded only eight commodity-vessel crossings Monday, while one loaded tanker abandoned its exit after threats and nearby explosions.• Palantir: Shares jumped more than 15% premarket, extending the software company’s post-earnings rally.
Google builds $200 billion Anthropic financing network as Grab raises outlook
AI infrastructure financing and upbeat consumer-platform demand supported growth names, while proposed Indian tax relief contrasted with pressure on miners.• Google/Anthropic: Google has assembled about $200 billion of Anthropic infrastructure contracts, including more than $150 billion of tensor processors co-developed with Broadcom. Apollo and Blackstone backed an initial $35 billion vehicle; Google’s lease guarantees may create $44 billion of exposure.• Grab: Grab lifted 2026 adjusted Ebitda guidance to $720-$740 million and authorized another $750 million buyback after revenue rose 22%.• India/Electronics: India plans to seek approval to extend foreign electronics manufacturers’ tax exemptions through 2041 and add incentives for data centers; the proposals remain subject to parliament.• Iron Ore: Singapore futures touched a 13-month low of $92.85 a ton as weak Chinese demand and narrowing steel margins threatened higher-cost producers.