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Oil holds above $100 amid Hormuz blockade
Energy risk set the tone as the Hormuz disruption kept crude above $100 and fed inflation concerns, while AI demand continued to support semis into the close and after hours. The US-China summit delivered incremental trade positives, but investors discounted some of the headline optimism as China data weakened and deal specifics looked smaller than hoped.• Gulf/Oil: WTI traded toward $102 and Brent closed near $106 as Hormuz remained effectively closed, a seized vessel was reportedly taken toward Iranian waters, India confirmed a ship sank after an attack, and the House failed to advance an Iran war-powers resolution.• Macro/Rates: April import prices rose 1.9% as petroleum costs jumped 19%, and Boston Fed President Collins said rate hikes may be needed if inflation broadens, pressuring duration.• AI/Semis: Nvidia extended its seven-day rally, Cerebras surged after pricing its IPO above range, and Applied Materials guided above estimates after hours on AI and memory demand.• China/Trade: Beijing cleared hundreds of US beef plants and officials discussed tariff cuts and farm purchases, but weak Chinese credit data and selling in China tech capped the read-through.• Single Names: Boeing fell after Xi’s 200-jet commitment disappointed investors who had expected a larger order, while Apple slipped on reports its OpenAI partnership had frayed.
Oil holds above $100 after House blocks Iran war-powers measure
Energy risk stayed firm, while China summit details leaned constructive but still short on binding trade commitments. Fed balance-sheet politics and AI litigation added late cross-currents.• Gulf/Oil: The House tied 212-212 on an Iran war-powers resolution, the closest vote yet but still a failure. WTI rose toward $102 and Brent closed near $106, with Hormuz still described as effectively closed.• China/Trade: USTR Greer said both sides may extend the truce, expects double-digit-billion-dollar US farm purchases over three years, and gave China a “passing grade” on rare-earth exports; chip controls were not a major meeting topic.• Fed/Rates: Fed Governor Barr said shrinking the $6.7 trillion balance sheet is the “wrong objective,” directly pushing back on incoming Chair Warsh’s priorities. Stephen Miran resigned and again argued rates may be too high.• AI/Legal: Musk’s OpenAI case went to a nine-person jury, with deliberations expected Monday; Musk seeks up to $134 billion for OpenAI’s nonprofit arm.• Single Names: Nubank missed profit estimates, while Gemini jumped after a $100 million Winklevoss investment.
Applied Materials outlook tops estimates after AI demand lifts chip-equipment orders
After-hours tech guidance added to the AI bid, while shipping data gave conflicting signals on whether the Hormuz squeeze is easing. Policy and legal developments moved several sector baskets.• Semicap Equipment: Applied Materials guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to about $8.95 billion and adjusted EPS to $3.36, above $8.15 billion and $2.88 estimates, citing AI and memory demand.• Gulf/Oil: Iranian outlets said some Chinese vessels passed Hormuz, and Windward confirmed the first Kharg Island tanker loading since May 7; Windward also counted 333 IRGC-linked speedboats in the strait Thursday.• Trucking: ODFL, JBHT and SAIA rose 4%+ after the Supreme Court allowed a negligent-hiring suit against broker C.H. Robinson, which fell.• Policy/Software: California proposed a cloud-software tax that would raise $1.1 billion next year and $2 billion annually later, affecting MSFT, CRM and ORCL.• Medtech: Elliott took a Dexcom stake; DXCM rose 5.3% after hours.
Boeing falls on China order disappointment as Iran claims Hormuz control
Risk appetite stayed driven by AI, but China deal specifics and Gulf shipping signals were less clean than the macro tape implied.• Aerospace: Trump said Xi agreed to buy 200 Boeing jets, but BA fell 4.7% as investors had expected a possible order closer to 500 aircraft.• Gulf Shipping: India confirmed the Haji Ali sank after an attack and said all 14 crew were rescued; Iranian officials claimed Hormuz is under their control, with brokers citing tolls up to $2 million per ship.• AI/Semis: Cerebras opened as high as about $385, more than double its IPO price, and closed up 68%; Nvidia rose as much as 4.7%, extending a seven-day gain to 20%.• Tech/Legal: Bloomberg reported Apple’s OpenAI partnership has frayed, with OpenAI lawyers weighing possible breach-of-contract action.• Crypto: The Senate Banking Committee advanced the Clarity Act market-structure bill to the floor.
Import prices jump while US blockade tally rises
Energy-driven inflation and blockade data added a risk-off layer to an otherwise AI-supported tape, with consumer spending still resilient.• Macro/Rates: April import prices rose 1.9% m/m, the most since March 2022, as petroleum costs jumped 19%; export prices rose 3.3%. Retail sales rose 0.5%, with ex-gas up 0.3%.• Fed: Boston Fed’s Collins said rate hikes may be needed if inflation broadens, though that is not her base case, and backed dropping language implying the next move is a cut.• Gulf Shipping: Centcom said 70 commercial ships have been redirected and four disabled under the Iran blockade, up from 67; Adm. Cooper said US forces destroyed more than 90% of Iran’s roughly 8,000 naval mines.• AI/Tech: Cerebras priced a $5.55B IPO above range; retail net buying of Roundhill Memory ETF topped $250M in six weeks, with Micron among top holdings.• Single Names: Ingredion fell premarket after proposing up to £2.74B for Tate & Lyle; Schwab guided 2026 revenue growth of 14%-15%.
Bessent says US-China seek tariff cuts while Hormuz commitments remain unclear
US-China news turned incrementally constructive on trade, but energy-security deliverables remained ambiguous and China’s domestic data undercut the summit rally.• Trade/Policy: Bessent told CNBC the sides are seeking tariff cuts on about $30 billion of non-critical trade and are discussing a board of investment to pre-clear Chinese investment in non-sensitive US sectors.• Energy/Shipping: The White House said Xi opposed Hormuz tolls and may buy more US oil; Bessent said China would “do what they can” to reopen the strait, but China’s readout still has not confirmed energy commitments. India said an Indian-flagged ship was attacked near Oman Wednesday and its crew was rescued.• China Credit: April aggregate financing was 621 billion yuan, below the nearly 1.3 trillion yuan estimate, while new loans contracted 15.3 billion yuan.• Semis/AI: Bessent said he was unaware of a reported Nvidia H200 sale approval to Chinese firms, tempering the earlier chip headline.• Biotech: Biogen will advance Ionis-licensed Alzheimer’s drug diranersen despite a mid-stage trial missing its primary endpoint.
Oil risk rises after vessel is seized near Fujairah
Energy risk re-accelerated even as selective China-trade and AI headlines supported parts of tech. China’s domestic equity tape weakened into the close despite warmer official language around the summit.• Gulf Shipping: UKMTO said a vessel anchored 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah was boarded by unauthorized personnel and was bound for Iranian waters.• Semis/China: Reuters reported the U.S. cleared Nvidia H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance; Nasdaq futures rose modestly, though Bloomberg noted Beijing remains a holdup.• China Markets: Onshore indices closed near session lows; ChiNext fell 2.2%, the Shanghai Composite lost 1.5% and turnover topped 3 trillion yuan for a seventh day.• AI/Servers: Hon Hai beat with NT$49.9 billion in first-quarter net income after AI server demand drove a 30% sales increase.
China clears US beef plants as Chinese tech stocks slide
Beijing delivered one concrete market-relevant trade signal, while summit optics stayed constructive but did not stop profit-taking in China tech.• Trade/Agriculture: China approved export licenses for several hundred U.S. slaughterhouses to ship beef, NYT reported, after letting the licenses expire in March 2025 following Trump’s initial tariffs.• China Markets: The onshore yuan touched 6.7840 per dollar, the strongest since February 2023, but China equities faded; Shanghai Composite closed the morning down 1%, Alibaba pared an almost 8% gain to 5%, and HK$6 billion of southbound selling hit tech.• China/Summit: The Trump-Xi meeting ended after 2 hours and 15 minutes; CCTV said Xi then told U.S. CEOs China’s door would “open wider.”• Energy/Shipping: Eneos Endeavor emerged outside Hormuz after an apparent unbroadcast transit, while Cosco’s Yuan Hua Hu was nearing the U.S. blockade line.
Treasury yields climb after PPI jumps
Hot US inflation and a weak long-bond auction set the dominant cross-asset tone, pushing yields higher even as oil faded from early Gulf-risk spikes on demand-destruction concerns. The close added political risk at the Fed and company-level AI winners, while late US-China headlines supported China tech despite Taiwan friction.• Macro/Rates: April PPI rose 1.4% month over month and 6% year over year, far above consensus, and the 10-year yield touched 4.49%. A $25 billion 30-year auction tailed at 5.046%, while the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair by a narrow 54-45 vote.• Energy/Geopolitics: Gulf logistics stayed stressed as Kharg Island jetties remained empty, U.S. forces fired warning shots near Hormuz and Saudi output fell to the lowest since 1990, but WTI still settled down 1.1% after the IEA cut demand forecasts.• China/Trade: Trump and Xi opened talks in Beijing, with Xi warning on Taiwan while Reuters reported a possible framework covering about $30 billion of tariff relief on each side; Alibaba and Tencent rallied in Hong Kong after hours.• AI/Single Names: Cisco jumped after hours on an above-consensus revenue outlook tied to AI infrastructure, while Ford rallied after Morgan Stanley highlighted the value of Ford Energy.
Xi warns Trump on Taiwan as tariff-easing framework is floated
US-China talks formally began with cooperative language but clear Taiwan risk, while AI and commodity-linked stories drove the cleaner equity reads.• China/Summit: Trump and Xi opened the Beijing summit; Xi warned that mishandling Taiwan could lead to “collision or even conflict,” while Trump said ties would be “better than ever before.”• Trade/Policy: Reuters reported, citing people familiar, that both sides are weighing a framework to identify about $30 billion of goods each for possible tariff relief.• China Tech: Hong Kong tech opened sharply higher, with Alibaba up 7.8% and Tencent up 2.5%, though mainland gauges later slipped as traders took profits.• Data Centers: Blackstone’s digital-infrastructure REIT raised $1.75 billion in the largest REIT blind-pool IPO; AirTrunk is also marketing a $2.3 billion Malaysia loan.• Commodities: India banned sugar exports through September, tightening global supply risk.
Warsh wins Fed confirmation as Cisco forecasts beat estimates
Rates and AI-linked equity dispersion dominated the afternoon, with political risk around the Fed rising while select tech and industrial names rallied on company-specific catalysts.• Fed/Rates: The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair 54-45, the narrowest margin for a Fed chief since confirmation became required. A $25 billion 30-year auction awarded at 5.046%, the first 5%-plus long-bond yield since 2007.• Tech/AI: Cisco guided July-quarter revenue to $16.7 billion-$16.9 billion versus the $15.8 billion estimate and announced job cuts to redirect spending toward AI infrastructure; shares jumped after hours.• Autos/Energy Storage: Ford rose about 14%-15% after Morgan Stanley highlighted Ford Energy and said the storage unit could be worth $10 billion.• Geopolitics/Energy: WSJ reported Saudi Arabia and Kuwait struck Iran-backed militias in Iraq during the war, while U.S. crude still settled down 1.1% at $101.02.
PPI jumps as US fires Hormuz warning shots
Hot wholesale inflation and fresh Gulf enforcement headlines pushed the mix back toward higher rates and persistent energy risk.• Macro/Rates: April PPI rose 1.4% month over month and 6% year over year, above the 0.5% consensus; core PPI rose 5.2%, and the 10-year yield touched 4.49%, the highest since July.• Hormuz/Shipping: Centcom said U.S. forces fired warning shots at two commercial vessels, diverted 67 ships, disabled four and allowed 15 humanitarian vessels through the blockade.• Oil/Supply: Saudi Arabia told OPEC April output fell another 651,000 b/d to 6.316 million, the lowest since 1990; OPEC output fell 1.727 million b/d.• Logistics: Gulf shippers expanded Hormuz bypasses, with Maaden using 3,500 trucks and Khor Fakkan’s daily truck traffic rising to 7,000 from 100.
Trump lands in Beijing as Kharg jetties stay empty
Risk tone was modestly firmer before the open, but energy logistics and China-linked earnings kept macro and single-name risk active.• China/Summit: Trump landed in Beijing for the first US presidential visit to China since 2017; S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% ahead of Thursday talks with Xi.• Energy/Shipping: Bloomberg satellite images showed Iran’s Kharg Island oil jetties empty again Tuesday, the fourth consecutive observed period with no tankers at the main export facility.• Hormuz/Shipping: WSJ said Cosco’s Yuan Hua Hu crossed Hormuz through the IRGC-controlled northern corridor without paying tolls; at least five other Cosco tankers remain trapped in the Gulf.• China Tech: Alibaba revenue missed estimates at 243.4B yuan, while Ant’s implied profit fell 79% on AI and health-care investment costs.• AI Cloud: Nebius reported a 684% first-quarter sales jump to $399M on data-center demand.
Oil falls after IEA flags deeper demand destruction
Energy stress remained the main macro input, but the latest oil reaction was lower as demand destruction offset tighter supply. China-tech and India headlines added equity dispersion.• Oil/IEA: The IEA said observed inventories fell about 4M b/d in March-April and supply losses reached 12.8M b/d, but it cut 2026 demand by 420,000 b/d versus an 80,000-b/d drop; WTI fell 1.1% to $101.02 and Brent 2% to $105.63.• India/Macro: India more than doubled gold and silver import duties to 15% to conserve FX; Nifty has fallen about 3% this week, while Kalyan Jewellers dropped 17% over three days.• Tech/China: Trump personally invited Jensen Huang after press reports; WSJ said Beijing still has not approved Nvidia H200 shipments, while MiniMax rose as much as 18% and Zhipu 38%.• Earnings/AI: Tencent missed revenue estimates at 196.5B yuan despite higher profit, increasing scrutiny of its planned AI spending.
Yields and oil climb after inflation and Hormuz risks intensify
Inflation, rates and energy-security risk set the tone, leaving equities defensive despite pockets of AI demand and commodity strength. The day moved from a hot CPI print and Middle East shipping stress into a higher-yield close, then after-hours news reinforced oil-supply and China-linked inflation concerns.• Macro/Rates: April CPI rose 0.6% month over month and 3.8% year over year, with core at 2.8%; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.462%, and futures priced roughly 35% odds of a Fed hike this year after Kevin Warsh won a Fed board seat.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent traded near $107 as Hormuz risk widened, ships rerouted or went dark, Kharg Island shipments reportedly halted, and U.S. intelligence said Iran retained most missile-launch capability near the strait.• Semiconductors/AI: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3%, led by Micron and Qualcomm, although Nvidia rose after Jensen Huang joined Trump’s China trip and Cerebras demand pointed to resilient private AI appetite.• Commodities/Inflation: Copper approached records as supply tightened, while Chinese suppliers to Walmart and Costco raised holiday-goods prices 5%-15% on materials, energy, currency and Iran-related disruption costs.
Hormuz risk widens as copper nears record
Overnight news tilted inflationary and supply-constrained: Hormuz remained hazardous, China-linked goods and metals showed cost pressure, and Nvidia regained a seat at the China summit table.• Energy/Shipping: Iran said the Strait of Hormuz now spans a much larger “operational area”; Windward cited a 600% rise in dark activity, and Cosco’s Yuan Hua Hu attempted a rare VLCC exit.• Tech/China: Jensen Huang joined Trump’s China trip at the last minute; Nvidia said he was invited, and shares rose 2.3% after hours.• Metals/Miners: Copper topped $14,000/ton on LME and Comex hit a record $6.69/lb as supply tightened; FCX and SCCO are exposed.• Retail/Inflation: Chinese suppliers to Walmart and Costco raised holiday-goods prices 5%-15%, citing materials, energy, yuan strength and Iran-related disruptions.• IPO/Energy: Fervo raised $1.89B above range, valuing the geothermal developer at $7.7B.
Oil holds gains after US intelligence shows Iran retains missile capabilities
Energy and rates risk stayed elevated after fresh evidence challenged claims that Iran’s military threat had been neutralized, while AI-linked equities split between chip profit-taking and private-market demand.• Iran/Energy: U.S. intelligence assessments showed Iran regained access to 30 of 33 missile sites near Hormuz and retains about 70% of mobile launchers and prewar missile stockpiles.• Oil/Inventories: The EIA now expects global oil inventories to fall 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026, versus a prior 300,000-barrel decline, assuming Hormuz stays closed until late May.• Semiconductors: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended down 3% after falling as much as 6.8%; Micron fell 11%, Qualcomm 6.8% and Intel 3.7%, while Nvidia finished higher.• Utilities: AEP fell 2.5% after hours on a planned $2.6 billion share sale.• AI/IPO: Cerebras is expected to price above range after orders reportedly topped 20 times shares available.
Yields climb as Warsh wins Fed board seat
Rates, energy and policy risk dominated, while single-name tech and health-care headlines added sector dispersion.• Rates/Fed: The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.462%, its highest close since last summer; futures priced roughly 35% odds of a Fed hike this year, and the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed board 51-45 before a separate chair vote.• Energy/Shipping: Three tankers that cleared Hormuz on Monday had not reached open seas; Bloomberg said Kharg Island shipments showed their first prolonged halt of the war, while Kuwait accused Iran of an IRGC island infiltration that Tehran denied.• Trade/Tariffs: An appeals court temporarily paused a ruling against Trump’s latest 10% global tariffs, even as the administration said $35.5B of tariff refunds had been cleared.• Health Care: FDA Commissioner Marty Makary resigned after pressure tied to flavored e-cigarette approvals.• Tech: Google unveiled Android 17 AI features and a Googlebook laptop platform.
CPI hits 3.8% as Pentagon raises Iran war cost
Official data hardened the inflation and rates backdrop while Iran-related cost and shipping headlines stayed adverse for risk.• Macro/Rates: April CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.8% y/y; core rose 0.4% and 2.8%, with airfares up 20.7% y/y. Two-year yields were about 3.99%, and the S&P 500 opened down roughly 0.4%.• Defense/Iran: The Pentagon raised its Iran-war cost estimate to about $29B from $25B; munitions and damaged or destroyed aircraft account for about $24B, and Democrats sought a detailed breakdown by June 11.• Energy/Shipping: Centcom said 65 ships have been rerouted under the Iran blockade. Vietnam asked the US to let a tanker with 1.99M barrels of Iraqi crude through, while a second Qatari LNG cargo cleared Hormuz.• Geopolitics: WSJ/Bloomberg reported the UAE secretly struck Iranian refinery and petrochemical targets and coordinated with Israel; UAE officials declined comment.
Oil climbs after Iran raises weapons-grade enrichment threat
Risk tone stayed defensive, with Middle East negotiations hardening, UK political risk feeding into banks and several US single-name movers active premarket.• Energy/Geopolitics: Trump said Iran was “under control” but warned it could be “decimated”; an Iranian lawmaker said parliament could consider 90% uranium enrichment if attacked again. Brent traded around $107.• UK/Banks: Barclays, NatWest and Lloyds fell about 4% after JPMorgan raised its base case for the UK bank surcharge to 5% from 3% under possible new Labour leadership.• M&A/Retail: EBay rejected GameStop’s $56 billion unsolicited offer as “neither credible nor attractive”; GameStop fell about 4% premarket.• China/Ag: Chinese officials discussed buying US corn, sorghum, distillers grains and soybeans before Trump’s Xi meeting; volumes remain unsettled.• Consumer: On Holding raised margin guidance, while Under Armour dropped up to 17% on weak sales and profit guidance.
CPI tops forecasts as Starmer defies calls to quit
Risk news turned more inflationary and politically unstable, with US CPI, UK gilts and Gulf shipping all adding pressure before the US open.• Macro/Rates: WSJ reported April CPI rose 3.8% year over year, above the 3.7% forecast; core inflation edged up to 2.7% from 2.6%.• UK/Politics: Starmer told his cabinet he would stay as prime minister and said Labour’s leadership challenge process had not been triggered, despite more than 80 Labour MPs calling for him to step aside.• UK/Rates: The 10-year gilt yield hit 5.12%, the highest since 2008, while the 30-year reached 5.79%, the highest since 1998; sterling fell around 0.5% against the dollar.• Energy/Shipping: Qatar asked ships at Ras Laffan to turn off transponders, and at least nine LNG tankers stopped sending signals from May 11.• Health Care: Bristol-Myers agreed to a Hengrui licensing pact worth up to $15.2 billion, including $600 million upfront.
Adnoc Gas flags Hormuz hit as BOJ signals June hike risk
Energy-supply damage, Japan policy risk and AI/data-center demand were the main overnight additions, with broader risk appetite still evident outside Korea’s policy scare.• Energy/Gas: Adnoc Gas said the UAE’s Habshan plant is at about 60% capacity after April attacks, should reach 80% by year-end and full capability in 2027; a Hormuz closure may cut 2Q earnings by $400 million-$600 million.• Japan/Rates: The BOJ summary signaled a possible June 16 rate hike despite Middle East risks; traders price 77% odds. Japan said it coordinated FX policy with Bessent after suspected yen intervention.• China/Policy: The White House set the Trump-Xi meeting for Thursday morning in Beijing, with trade, Iran revenue links, Taiwan arms and Jimmy Lai on the agenda.• AI/Stocks: South Korea’s AI-profit tax comments sent the Kospi down as much as 5.1% before paring; Siemens Energy accelerated buybacks by up to €1 billion on data-center orders.