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Crude retreats on tentative Iran truce as Dell surges
Oil drove the day’s macro arc: crude spiked after fresh US-Iran strikes near Hormuz, then gave back gains as reports described a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension that still lacked Trump approval and Iranian confirmation. The equity tape leaned more constructive late as AI infrastructure demand outweighed an uneasy macro mix and scattered regulatory hits.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose above $96 overnight on the Hormuz exchange, lifting yields and pressuring risk, before sliding below $94 as Axios, FT and NYT reported draft truce terms and possible sanctions relief.• AI Infrastructure: Dell became the clearest after-hours winner after raising its revenue outlook to about $167bn and detailing surging AI-server orders; Snowflake also rallied on stronger guidance and an Amazon chip-access deal.• Macro/Rates: April PCE and core PCE remained firm, first-quarter GDP was revised down to 1.6%, jobless claims rose and new-home sales fell, leaving a stagflationary undertone even as yields eased from oil-driven highs.• Health Care: Eli Lilly regained a $1tn market value after CVS Caremark restored Zepbound to preferred formularies and added Foundayo coverage.• Regulation/Deals: EU action hit Temu and JD.com, the STB paused the UNP-NSC review, and the FTC opened a fertilizer-pricing probe.
Dell raises AI-server outlook as oil slips on tentative Iran truce
AI infrastructure demand remained the clearest equity-positive signal, while crude softened on still-unapproved Iran diplomacy and retail earnings split sharply after hours.• Dell/AI: Dell raised its fiscal-year revenue outlook to about $167bn, including $60bn of AI server sales; shares rose about 4% late after $24.4bn of quarterly AI orders.• Oil/Geopolitics: WTI fell toward $88 and Brent held below $94 after reports of a tentative 60-day US-Iran ceasefire extension; Trump has not approved the terms, and Iran has not confirmed the US account.• Retail: Gap fell roughly 14% after hours after cutting annual sales growth guidance to 1%-2%, while Costco gained on adjusted EPS of $4.93, above estimates.• Pfizer/China: Pfizer signed an oncology collaboration with Innovent worth up to $10.5bn, including $650mn upfront.• Autos/AV: Texas filings showed Tesla has 42 registered robotaxis, versus Waymo’s 577.
Anthropic tops OpenAI valuation as Lilly regains $1 trillion market cap
AI/private-market exuberance and health-care momentum offset a steadier oil tape, while rails and fertilizer names absorbed fresh regulatory shocks.• AI: Anthropic raised $65bn at a $965bn valuation, above OpenAI, and said annualized revenue is nearing $50bn; it also launched Opus 4.8.• Health Care: Eli Lilly rose over 4% and moved back above $1tn in market value after CVS Caremark restored Zepbound to preferred formularies from October and agreed to cover Foundayo from June 1.• Rails: UNP and NSC fell as the Surface Transportation Board paused review of their $72bn merger and gave the companies until July 27 to supplement the filing.• Fertilizer: FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson said the agency opened an industrywide antitrust probe into fertilizer prices; CF, NTR and MOS traded lower.• Oil/Geopolitics: FT/NYT described a 60-day draft Hormuz framework with possible sanctions relief, but Iran has not confirmed it and Trump disputed parts.
Oil pares gains after Axios reports US-Iran ceasefire deal awaits Trump approval
Markets focused on a reported US-Iran ceasefire extension, while US data kept the growth-inflation mix uncomfortable and deal/earnings news drove sharp single-name moves.• Oil/Geopolitics: Axios reported the US and Iran are near a ceasefire-extension deal pending Trump approval; Brent pared gains to about $93, while gold erased losses and Treasury yields slipped.• Macro/Rates: April PCE rose 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y, core rose 0.2% and 3.3%; 1Q GDP was revised down to 1.6%, claims rose to 215,000, and new-home sales fell 6.2%.• M&A/Gaming: Fertitta agreed to buy Caesars for $31 a share, valuing equity at $5.7bn and enterprise value at $17.6bn, with a go-shop through July 11.• Retail: Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Kohl’s rallied after better-than-feared results, led by DLTR comps up 3.5% and BBY comps up 2%.• Defense/Drones: Drone stocks jumped on a WSJ report that the Trump team is exploring funding deals; UMAC rose 50%, RCAT 25%, AVAV 15% and KTOS 13%.
Temu fined by EU as JD.com faces subsidy probe
Regulatory risk around China-linked platforms moved to the foreground, while early US risk tone softened with oil still elevated and software strength concentrated in Snowflake.• China/EU Platforms: The EU fined Temu €200mn for failing to prevent unsafe toys and chargers on its marketplace and gave it two months to propose fixes or face periodic penalties.• China/EU Deals: Brussels opened an in-depth subsidy review of JD.com’s €2.2bn Ceconomy bid, citing possible Chinese state-linked financing, tax incentives and grants.• Software/AI: Snowflake rose 38% premarket after its raised outlook and $6bn Amazon chip-access deal; Salesforce remained down about 2% on softer current-quarter revenue guidance.• Macro/Oil: Brent traded around $94, up about 2%, while S&P 500 futures pointed lower and emerging-market stocks snapped a week-long rally.• Health Care: GSK said bepirovirsen functionally cured hepatitis B in 19%-20% of late-stage trial patients.
Brent jumps after US and Iran exchange new Hormuz strikes
Brent crude rallied above $96 as the US and Iran traded fresh drone and missile strikes near Hormuz, dashing deal hopes. Treasuries fell, metals eased and South Africa telegraphed its first rate hike in three years on oil-driven inflation. In single-stock news, Nio jumped on a new electric SUV; Eli Lilly vowed global launches amid drug-price pressure.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose ~3% to $96.15 after US forces hit a Bandar Abbas drone-control station and Kuwait intercepted hostile missiles and drones; Iran’s IRGC said it retaliated against the launch base and threatened more decisive action.• Iran/Treasury: The US sanctioned Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority for extortion, while Trump said no one nation would control the waterway, though officials described strikes as defensive and said the ceasefire holds.• Macro/Rates: Ten-year Treasury yields added 5 bps to 4.53% as oil jumped; South Africa’s central bank is expected to hike 25 bps to 7% on oil-driven inflation.• Nio/EVs: Nio shares surged up to 10% after launching its ES9, China’s largest electric SUV, at a price below pre-sale levels, with Morgan Stanley seeing order support.• Lilly/Drug Pricing: Eli Lilly said it will continue global drug launches despite Trump’s Most-Favored-Nation pricing proposal, and noted Zepbound growth is expanding the obesity market rather than shifting share.
Oil rallies after US strikes Iran drone site amid sanctions
A sharp reversal in geopolitical tension drove the day, with oil initially sliding on false Iranian deal hopes before surging after U.S. strikes on an Iran drone site and new sanctions. Equity markets pushed to records on the earlier oil relief, but after-hours action was driven by divergent software earnings and strong AI hardware guidance. The Fed kept energy-driven inflation risks in focus, reinforcing a cautious rates outlook.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rallied back near $96 after U.S. forces shot down Iranian drones over Hormuz and struck a drone-control station, reversing a drop to one-month lows on a false Iranian media report of a Hormuz deal.• Iran/Sanctions: The U.S. sanctioned Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, calling it an extortion attempt, after earlier denying an Iranian draft agreement and threatening Oman.• Semis/AI: Marvell surged as much as 9% after guiding Q2 revenue to about $2.7bn, above estimates, while Snowflake jumped over 25% on raised guidance and a $6bn AWS chip deal.• Software: Salesforce slipped after guiding Q2 revenue below estimates, contrasting with Snowflake's AI-driven beat.• Fed/Rates: Governor Cook and Vice Chair Jefferson both flagged upward inflation risks from tariffs and energy, with Cook prepared to raise rates if needed.
US strikes Iran drone site after Tehran launches drones near Hormuz
Geopolitical risk re-emerged late as U.S. officials described fresh defensive strikes in southern Iran, tempering the earlier oil-relief tone. After-hours tech news was broadly constructive, led by AI data-center and PC demand, while the Fed kept energy-driven inflation risk in focus.• Middle East/Oil: U.S. forces shot down four Iranian one-way drones over Hormuz and F/A-18s hit a Bandar Abbas drone-control station before a fifth launch; officials reported no casualties and called the action limited.• Semis/Hardware: Marvell rose as much as 9% after guiding 2Q revenue to about $2.7bn versus $2.6bn estimated; HPQ gained after its profit midpoint topped consensus despite higher memory costs.• Fed/Rates: Vice Chair Jefferson said policy is well positioned but inflation risks remain tilted upward from tariffs and energy, and he is watching for demand damage.• Tech/Contracts: Dell won a five-year $9.7bn Pentagon Microsoft-license contract, while Meta began rolling out $2.99-$3.99 monthly subscriptions for WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram.
Oil closes at one-month lows on Iran deal hopes
Risk appetite held even as policy signals stayed mixed: oil relief lifted equities, while late software earnings split AI beneficiaries from incumbents.• Markets/Oil: WTI settled down 5.5% at $88.68 and Brent fell 5.3% to $94.29, both lowest since April 17; the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed at records.• Hormuz/Iran: Ship tracking showed only two vessels entering the Gulf and none exiting. Trump said he was “not satisfied,” rejected Iran-Oman control and threatened Oman.• Cloud/AI: Snowflake jumped more than 25% after hours after raising FY product-revenue guidance to $5.84bn and signing a five-year, $6bn AWS Graviton chip deal.• Software: Salesforce slipped after guiding 2Q revenue to about $11.3bn, below the $11.4bn estimate, though Agentforce annual revenue reached $1.2bn.• Fed/Rates: Governor Cook said inflation risks remain tilted higher and she is prepared to raise rates if price pressure persists.
White House denies Iran draft after oil drops on deal hopes
Markets faded the Iran-deal rally as Washington rejected Iranian state-media claims, while aerospace, fintech and bank headlines drove single-name moves.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent briefly fell below $93 after IRIB described a Hormuz draft; the White House called it “not true” and a “complete fabrication,” while Kpler said crossings remained just two Monday.• Aerospace: Boeing said the FAA cleared a 737 Max ramp toward 47 jets a month from the 42 cap, with the higher rate expected within months.• Fintech/Crypto: SoFi opened SoFiUSD to nearly 15mn users and plans FDIC-covered tokenized deposits in 3Q; Robinhood launched AI-agent stock trading.• Banks: JPMorgan fell nearly 3% after Dimon guided expenses closer to $106bn, though he also said the bank could deploy $10bn-$20bn on deals.
Oil rises after Israel pushes deeper into Lebanon
Geopolitical risk reasserted itself, while AI infrastructure spending and deal news added single-name catalysts.• Middle East/Oil: South Korea said the HMM ship explosion in Hormuz was likely caused by an Iranian Noor-series anti-ship missile; Israel and Hezbollah traded fire as Israeli forces appeared to move beyond the southern Lebanon buffer zone.• AI/Capex: ByteDance is weighing 2025 AI capex of as much as $70 billion and roughly $100 billion in 2026, versus about $25 billion last year.• Deals/Chemicals: Akzo rejected a €73-a-share cash offer from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams, a 39% premium, and said its Axalta merger remains superior.• Autos/Energy: Ford has risen 28% in two weeks after launching a $2 billion energy-storage unit targeting data centers, utilities and industrial customers.• Memory/China: CXMT cleared review for an about $4 billion Shanghai STAR listing, potentially pressuring Micron’s DRAM narrative.
Huawei chip plan lifts Chinese semis as Samsung averts strike
Chinese chip names rallied after Huawei proposed a novel chip design, while Samsung workers accepted a wage deal that averted a strike. Europe auto sales rose for a third month, but Australia and New Zealand central banks signaled hawkish stances, weighing on their currencies.• Semis/AI: SMIC rose nearly 6% after Huawei outlined the Tau Scaling Law, a chip-stacking method it claims could yield 1.4nm-class performance by 2031 despite US restrictions; Taiwan prosecutors suspect smuggling of Nvidia chips to China via Japan.• Samsung/Labor: Samsung Electronics union members approved a profit-sharing deal averting a strike, sending shares up 8% in Seoul, with memory workers set for $340,000 average bonuses.• Autos/Europe: Tesla’s European registrations rose 47% in April as overall EU car sales climbed 7%, driven by a 38% jump in EV deliveries partly on German subsidies.• RBNZ/Currency: The New Zealand dollar rose after the RBNZ held rates at 2.25% on a split vote and warned rates may need to rise sooner, with swaps pricing a 90% chance of a July hike.
Brent nears $100 while AI-memory rally broadens
Risk appetite held up despite another Gulf risk premium: crude became the macro fulcrum, but equities drew support from AI-memory strength, space-related speculation and tariff-refund cash, while late export-control news put a check on Nvidia-linked enthusiasm.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent moved toward $100 after a tanker reported an explosion east of Muscat and Iran threatened retaliation, even as US escort headlines were disputed and more non-Iranian tankers exited Hormuz.• Semis/AI: Micron surged 17% after UBS lifted its target to a Street high, Qualcomm rallied on a reported ByteDance AI-chip supply deal, and SK Hynix topped $1 trillion before filing for US ADRs.• Nvidia/Export Controls: Nvidia slipped after Taiwan prosecutors said they suspected advanced Nvidia chips in Super Micro servers were smuggled to China via Japan, though neither company was accused.• Space/IPO: Redwire, AST SpaceMobile and other space names jumped after SpaceX’s expected IPO filing fueled hopes for a $75 billion deal and faster index inclusion.• Policy/Macro: CBP began disbursing $20.6 billion of tariff refunds, China eased via MLF operations, and ECB officials leaned hawkish on inflation risks.
Importers get tariff refunds as SK Hynix joins $1 trillion club
Policy, semis and commodity-linked names drove late news, with tariff cash returning to importers, AI-memory momentum spreading overseas and lithium data supportive.• Trade/Tariffs: CBP said $20.6bn of tariff refunds, including interest, is being disbursed; it corrected processed claims to about $25bn from $35.5bn after a data error. Greer said the 10% global levy could potentially be reimposed after July.• Semis/Memory: SK Hynix topped $1tn in market value after a 900% one-year rally and filed to list ADRs in the US; separately, Mubadala marketed 22mn GlobalFoundries shares at up to a 4.1% discount.• Space/IPO: FTSE Russell adopted faster index entry after the fifth trading day for very large IPOs, relevant to the expected SpaceX listing.• Lithium/Energy: SQM beat Ebitda estimates and raised lithium volume guidance; another Adnoc LNG cargo exited Hormuz for India.
Brent nears $100 as space stocks surge on SpaceX IPO hopes
Risk stayed constructive, but Gulf verification worsened and speculative growth pockets broadened, led by space and memory-chip names.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent traded near $100 after the Olympic Life reported an explosion 60 nautical miles east of Muscat; the crew was safe, while CENTCOM denied reports that U.S. escorts had resumed and vessel data showed two more non-Iranian supertankers exiting Hormuz.• Space/IPO: Redwire rose as much as 31%, AST SpaceMobile 20%, Firefly 21% and MDA 10% as SpaceX’s IPO filing fueled interest; the offering could come next month and seek up to $75 billion.• Semis/AI: Micron jumped 17% after UBS raised its target to a Street-high $1,625, implying a $1.8 trillion value; a new memory-chip ETF reached $10 billion in assets in 50 days.• China/Deals: Brussels is expected to open an in-depth foreign-subsidies probe into JD.com’s €2.2 billion Ceconomy bid.
Stocks rise after US Navy restarts Hormuz escorts
Risk appetite improved despite mixed Gulf headlines: equities opened higher and crude softened, while single-name moves were driven by semiconductors, energy governance and health-care M&A.• Iran/Hormuz: The S&P 500 opened up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 1.2% as WTI neared $92; the U.S. Navy guided a Greek supertanker with 2 million barrels through Hormuz and plans about a dozen escorts, though a tanker reported an external explosion in the Gulf of Oman.• Semis/AI: Qualcomm rose as much as 8.3% to a record after Bloomberg reported a deal to supply ByteDance with millions of AI data-center chips; Micron traded above a $1 trillion market value for the first time.• BP: BP’s London shares fell more than 9% after the board unanimously removed chair Albert Manifold over governance and conduct concerns.• Health Care: Lilly agreed to buy three vaccine developers for up to $3.8 billion, re-entering infectious-disease prevention.
Oil rises after Iran threatens retaliation
Geopolitical risk firmed again, while central-bank signals leaned hawkish in Europe and China added targeted easing.• Iran/Oil: Oil strengthened after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard vowed retaliation for cease-fire violations and Khamenei said U.S. bases in the region were no longer safe. Israel also ordered the evacuation of Nabatieh before expected Lebanon strikes.• ECB/Rates: Schnabel told Reuters a June ECB rate hike is needed even if the Middle East war ends quickly. Lane said the ECB will probably raise its inflation forecast from the current 2.6% 2026 view.• China/Macro: China let the one-year policy-loan rate fall to a record 1.45% from 1.5% and injected a net 100 billion yuan through MLF operations.• Autos/Airlines: Ferrari fell 7.7% after its EV reveal. Delta’s cancellation rate is above the industry average; pilot-availability issues are 35% of mainline cancellations.
Chinese chip stocks jump on Huawei hopes while Brent rebounds
Asian trading was uneven as oil signals diverged and tech news flow stayed active, with China’s semiconductor rally contrasting with fresh company-specific pressure in consumer and megacap tech.• China Chips: SMIC and Hua Hong rose more than 16% in Hong Kong after Huawei said it aims to make 1.4-nanometer chips by 2031 using unproven LogicFolding technology, a potential long-term challenge to Nvidia and ASML.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent rose 1.7% to $97.80 while WTI fell 5.2% to $91.55; Rubio said Hormuz will be open “one way or another,” but draft language may take days.• Starbucks Korea: Shinsegae’s CFO said revenue was falling “very substantially” after a boycott over a Gwangju-related tumbler promotion; the local CEO was fired.• Apple: The FT said incoming CEO John Ternus faces pressure after delayed AI Siri work, a $250mn class-action settlement and executive departures.