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Treasuries rally as Hormuz blockade lifts oil
US equities absorbed a split tape: cooler CPI pulled down yields and supported risk, while Hormuz escalation kept an energy-risk premium in place. Rotation favored banks and energy over select tech and EV laggards, and after-hours news kept the geopolitical bid in crude as China growth added a softer global-demand backdrop.• Macro/Rates: June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, core was flat, and two-year yields slid as July Fed-hike odds dropped to roughly 16%-20% from near 50% overnight.• Oil/Iran: Iranian strikes on UAE tankers, Kuwait missile and drone attacks, and the restarted US blockade of Iranian ports left Hormuz traffic sparse; Brent settled at $84.73 and later rose toward $85.87.• Banks: JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi beat, with trading desks strong, though Citi reversed lower after management flagged reinvestment plans.• Tech/AI: IBM plunged after preliminary revenue missed estimates and management cited delayed deals, pressuring software peers; Nvidia faced tighter Asia AI-chip sales rules, partly offset later by expanded UAE chip access.• Single Names: Lucid ended 16% lower after denying bankruptcy or take-private recommendations, while HCA cut guidance and data-center landlords fell on New York’s proposed one-year ban.
China growth misses forecasts as oil rises on Hormuz blockade
China’s slowdown added macro risk, while Hormuz stress kept energy bid and company news hit AI, chips and labor litigation.• China Macro: GDP grew 4.3% year over year, below the 4.5% estimate and target range; fixed investment fell 5.7%, while retail sales and industrial output beat.• China Markets: CSI 300 gains faded and briefly turned negative; HSCEI rose 1.6%, offshore yuan held near 6.77 per dollar and the 10-year yield stayed at 1.73%.• Oil/Hormuz: Only a handful of vessels crossed Hormuz after the US blockade took effect; WTI rose to $80.22 and Brent to $85.87 in Asian trading.• AI/Chips: The US expanded UAE access to advanced AI chips, a potential benefit for Microsoft, OpenAI and G42, while drawing conflict-of-interest scrutiny.• Meta: Twenty-six workers sued, alleging AI-assisted layoff tools discriminated against employees on disability or protected leave; Meta denied the claims.
US resumes Iran blockade as Kuwait suffers missile and drone strikes
Geopolitical risk re-tightened after the blockade restart, while the cash close confirmed a split tape: tech-led index gains despite IBM’s record selloff and renewed oil stress.• Iran/Oil: CENTCOM said the US naval blockade restarted at 4 p.m.; Treasury sanctioned more than 50 entities tied to Hossein Shamkhani’s shipping network. WTI rose 0.7% to $79.87 and Brent settled at $84.73.• Gulf Security: Kuwait said five cruise missiles, one ballistic missile and 33 drones hit vital and civilian sites, injuring four navy personnel.• EVs: Lucid confirmed AlixPartners as a turnaround adviser, denied bankruptcy or take-private recommendations and closed 16% lower after an earlier 56% plunge.• Power/AI: PJM’s 2028 capacity auction missed reliability needs by 6.8GW, with payouts at the $16.4 billion record cap.• Media: The Writers Guild sued to block the Paramount-Warner deal, alleging the combined firm would control about 35% of top film-writing jobs.
Lucid sinks on bankruptcy report as Trump drops Hormuz fee
Risk appetite held up, but news flow added fresh single-name stress and only partial relief on Hormuz policy.• EVs: Lucid fell as much as 55% after a report said it was weighing bankruptcy or going private; the company declined to comment on “rumors or speculation,” and Rivian also dropped.• Hormuz: Trump abandoned the proposed 20% cargo fee, saying Gulf investment deals would replace it, but WSJ said a naval blockade on Iranian ports was still set for 4 p.m. ET.• Banks: Citi erased gains and fell as much as 5.7% after Jane Fraser said constructive conditions would prompt more investments and other actions.• Data Centers: New York plans a one-year ban on new data centers above 50MW, pressuring DLR, EQIX and BX.• Media/Biotech: States sought to delay Paramount’s Warner deal, while Biogen fell over 8% on Alzheimer’s data.
Treasuries rally after cool CPI cuts July Fed-hike odds
Cooler inflation drove the main market move, easing near-term Fed-hike risk even as Warsh kept a hawkish anti-inflation tone. Company news broadened beyond banks, with software under pressure and several deal and health-care headlines moving single names.• Macro/Rates: June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year; core was flat and up 2.6%. Two-year yields fell as much as 14 bp to 4.14%, while July hike odds dropped to roughly 16%-20%.• Fed: Warsh told lawmakers the Fed “can and will” deliver price stability, called the balance sheet a policy tool, and said task-force results would be shared periodically by year-end.• Tech/Software: IBM traded down about 24%, wiping out roughly $68 billion, and pulled lower ACN, IT, WDAY and NOW.• Banks/Deals: Citi earned $3.15 a share on $24.8 billion revenue; Uber is reportedly in advanced talks to buy Delivery Hero.• Health Care: HCA fell after cutting 2026 EPS guidance to $28.70-$30.50.
Bank profits jump as IBM warns on sales
Bank earnings dominated premarket, with trading desks producing large beats, while IBM’s warning cut against the risk-on tone in financials.• Banks: JPMorgan posted record profit of $21.2 billion, aided by a $4.6 billion Visa-stake gain; Goldman earned $6.63 billion, with record $7.42 billion equities revenue. Bank of America and Wells Fargo also beat.• Tech: IBM fell about 18% premarket after preliminary revenue of $17.2 billion missed the $17.9 billion estimate and the company cited delayed deals and customer spending shifts.• Chips: Tower Semiconductor jumped more than 18% premarket after Japan granted $1 billion toward a $3 billion production expansion and the company raised its outlook.• Energy/Shipping: Kpler said confirmed Hormuz traffic fell to 10 ships; China urged safe passage and India protested to Iran after a seafarer was killed.
Oil tops $86 after Iranian missiles hit UAE tankers
Energy stress intensified after direct hits on UAE tankers, lifting crude and rate-hike bets; single-name news was led by BP’s balance-sheet update and chip-listing speculation.• Oil/Iran: The UAE said Iranian missiles hit Adnoc L&S tankers Al Bahyah and Mombasa B in Hormuz, killing one crew member. Brent traded above $86, up 13% this week.• Rates: Swaps now fully price a BOE hike by September and a September ECB hike, with another BOE move expected by year-end.• LNG: BNEF delayed its LNG oversupply call to 2028 from 2027, citing war disruption and project slippage; Pakistan sought another July cargo because Qatari supply tightened.• Companies/Chips: BP guided net debt to $22 billion-$23 billion and flagged a $1 billion impairment. Samsung is said to be considering a US ADR sale, while TSMC fell after 36% sales growth only met estimates.
China exports surge as Nvidia tightens Asia chip sales
Asia news was mixed: China’s trade data surprised strongly, but Nvidia compliance tightened and Fed-hike pricing rose before CPI and Warsh testimony.• China Trade: June exports rose 27% and imports 36%, both above forecasts, with a $125.6 billion surplus; crude imports fell 41% to the lowest since 2016.• Chips/AI: FT reported Nvidia cut by more than half the Asian customers authorized to buy its AI chips under a tougher China-diversion whitelist overseen by Commerce.• Rates: Options implied about a 50% July Fed-hike chance, versus 42%-43% earlier, while two-year yields held above 4.25%.• Oil/Iran: Bloomberg tracked six sanctioned Iranian supertankers moving dark through Hormuz; visible traffic had nearly stopped, while CENTCOM denied Iranian claims of damage at US bases in Kuwait.• Japan Rates: A 20-year JGB sale drew a 4.52 bid-to-cover, above the 3.54 12-month average, and futures gained.
Oil surges after US-Iran strikes escalate
Oil was the day’s dominant shock as the Hormuz confrontation pushed inflation risk, Fed-hike pricing and equity de-risking through the tape. The early futures selloff broadened into a chip-led Nasdaq decline, while after-hours Asian trade data offered a partial offset to the risk-off tone but did not undo the rates pressure.• Energy/Iran: Brent settled up 9.6% at $83.30 and WTI rose 9.4% to $78.14 after fresh US strikes, Trump’s threat to run Hormuz and reports of a third night of attacks against Iranian targets.• Rates/Fed: Two-year yields held above 4.25% as futures moved from pricing the next hike by October to roughly 50% odds of a July move; Waller said a hot core CPI print could put a near-term hike on the table.• Equities/Chips: The Nasdaq lost 1.55% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.8%, with Micron, Intel, Marvell and Arm down at least 4% as AI hardware risk appetite cracked.• China/Asia: Late data showed China exports up 27% and imports up 36%, with AI hardware demand cited, while South Korea raised its 2026 growth forecast on semiconductor strength.• Deals/Regulation: Twelve states sued to block Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, while TransDigm abandoned its Stellant deal after DOJ and Pentagon scrutiny.
Oil posts biggest gain since 2020 after US begins third night of Iran strikes
Markets closed with a sharper energy shock, a deeper chip selloff and renewed pressure on metals, while policy-rate odds moved higher.• Oil/Iran: Brent settled up 9.6% at $83.30 and WTI rose 9.4% to $78.14. CENTCOM said a third night of strikes began at 4:45 p.m. ET; Trump said Pickaxe mountain, a fortified nuclear site, was a planned target.• Rates/Metals: Futures put July Fed-hike odds at 42%, up from 18% early this month, and two hikes this year at 56%. Gold closed just under $4,000; silver fell 3.6% to $57.634.• Equities/Chips: The Nasdaq lost 1.55% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.8%; Micron, Intel, Marvell and Arm fell at least 4%.• Insurance: Lincoln National is in advanced talks with Talcott on a reinsurance deal covering roughly $5 billion of life reserves, Bloomberg reported.
Oil jumps after Trump seeks 20% Hormuz cargo fee
Oil and rates stayed under pressure from a sharper Hormuz standoff and a more explicit Fed tightening warning, while deal and legal news drove dispersion.• Energy/Iran: Trump said the US would reinstate a blockade of Iranian ships and seek 20% reimbursement on other Hormuz cargo; Iran said it would not allow US management. Brent was recently up 4.5% at $79.50.• Rates/Fed: Waller said a hot core-inflation print this week would put a near-term rate hike on the table; futures now price two quarter-point hikes by April.• Defense/Iran: CENTCOM said US sea drones hit Iran’s Bandar Abbas naval base Sunday, the first US combat use of unmanned surface vessels.• Media/Deals: Twelve states sued to block Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, despite DOJ clearance; the suit cites price, content and distribution harms.• Infrastructure: Williams secured a $5.34 billion Blackstone-led investment for five power-infrastructure projects.
Oil rises after Trump says US will run Hormuz
Risk appetite stayed pressured by a broader Hormuz confrontation, while AI infrastructure spending and antitrust-driven deal risk added single-name dispersion.• Energy/Iran: Trump said the US would “take over” and “probably run” Hormuz after another strike wave; Kpler counted weekend traffic at 19 ships, down more than half.• Oil/Supply: The UAE told OPEC June crude output jumped 80% to 3.8 million b/d. DP World is discussing a Fujairah port bypass after Jebel Ali activity reportedly fell 90%-95%.• AI/Power: Meta lifted its Louisiana data-center plan to more than $50 billion and 5GW, nearly double the original cost, with Blue Owl a major stakeholder.• Semis: Intel plans €5 billion for its Irish Leixlip hub to expand Xeon and foundry capacity.• Industrials/Deals: TransDigm abandoned its $960 million Stellant acquisition after DOJ and Pentagon scrutiny.
Chip stocks slide after US-Iran strikes deepen risk-off trade
Risk-off pressure broadened beyond oil into high-beta AI hardware, while company updates offered a few offsets in autos and foundry demand.• Chips/AI: Nasdaq 100 futures pointed 1.2% lower, South Korea’s Kospi fell 8% and halted, and SK Hynix dropped more than 13%; Micron and Nvidia were cited among global AI-linked decliners.• Energy/Iran: Kpler data showed all six commodity carriers that crossed Hormuz on Sunday did so with transponders off, and no ships were visible on AIS early Monday.• Semis: TSMC reported June-quarter revenue of NT$1.27 trillion, up 36%, with June sales up 68%; full earnings are due Thursday.• Autos: Stellantis said second-quarter shipments rose 10% to 1.6 million vehicles, helped by a 38% jump in North America.• Tech/Policy: Von der Leyen said the EU will propose a minimum social-media age after summer, keeping pressure on Meta.
Oil jumps after new US-Iran strikes lift Fed-hike bets
Energy-driven inflation risk hit futures, bonds and metals, while credit supply worries broadened around AI infrastructure borrowers.• Energy/Rates: Brent rose 3.6% to $78.78 and WTI gained 3.6% to $74.01 after fresh US-Iran strikes; S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, the two-year Treasury yield reached 4.24%, and swaps now price the next Fed hike by October.• Metals/FX: Gold fell as much as 1.2% below $4,070 as the dollar strengthened; Asian currencies mostly weakened, with the Dollar Index up 0.2%.• AI Credit: WSJ said six hyperscalers including Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle issued $244 billion of debt this year, with spreads widening after recent deals.• Banks: JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, BofA and Citi are forecast to post a 27% rise in Q2 investment-banking fees to $11.1 billion.• Deals: Nippon Paint offered €7.5 billion for AkzoNobel’s decorative paints unit, complicating Akzo’s agreed Axalta merger.
Oil surges after US-Iran strikes threaten Hormuz
Risk appetite deteriorated over the week as the US-Iran conflict turned into an oil-inflation shock, lifting crude, inflation expectations and yields while keeping equity leadership narrow. AI and semiconductor demand still drew buyers on rebounds, but the same buildout raised credit concerns as hyperscaler borrowing and Oracle leverage moved into focus.• Energy/Geopolitics: Brent whipsawed after Saudi price cuts, then climbed as Iranian attacks near Hormuz, US strikes on Iranian targets and threats to shipping channels revived supply-risk hedges. Energy and defense outperformed, while airlines and other fuel-sensitive groups lagged.• Rates/Macro: Higher oil and firmer inflation expectations pushed Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year around the mid-4.5% area and swaps pulling the next Fed hike closer. Fed minutes showed officials were more worried about hike risks than cuts, adding pressure on duration.• AI/Semis: Crowded AI exposure sold off early on Samsung weakness, DeepSeek chip reports and Nvidia rack-delay concerns, then rebounded as Micron expanded US investment, SK Hynix’s ADR priced strongly and the US eased UAE chip-export curbs.• AI/Credit: Amazon’s $25 billion bond sale met soft demand, Oracle was cut to BBB-, and long-dated hyperscaler bonds widened as investors questioned the balance-sheet cost of AI infrastructure.• Single Names: Rivian fell on its share sale, Apple slipped after suing OpenAI, and UPS and FedEx weakened after Amazon’s delivery push raised competitive concerns.
Oil jumps after US-Iran exchanges escalate
Energy-driven inflation risk set the tone into the close and overnight after Iran claimed Hormuz was closed and U.S. forces launched fresh strikes. The route was not fully shut, but severe shipping risk was enough to lift crude, pressure futures and pull rates pricing more hawkish. Credit concerns around AI infrastructure added a separate overhang for megacap technology.• Energy/Iran: Brent and WTI rose 3.6% after fresh U.S.-Iran exchanges, including U.S. strikes aimed at degrading attacks on commercial shipping and Iran’s earlier attack on the M/V GFS Galaxy.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran said Hormuz was closed, but U.S. and maritime officials said the southern route along Oman remained available; visible crossings were minimal and threat levels stayed severe.• Macro/Rates: Real 10-year yields rose above 2.3%, the two-year yield hit 4.24%, swaps pulled the next Fed hike toward October, and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%.• Dollar/Gold: Speculators held more than $40 billion of long-dollar derivatives, while gold fell as much as 1.2% below $4,070 despite the geopolitical shock.• AI Credit: Hyperscalers issued about $244 billion of debt this year, with spreads widening after recent Nvidia, SpaceX and Amazon deals.
US launches new Iran strikes after Hormuz route stays partly open
Geopolitical risk re-escalated late Sunday, while rates and dollar positioning stayed hawkish and several single-name risks emerged.• Energy/Iran: CENTCOM said U.S. forces began additional strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET to degrade attacks on commercial shipping; earlier, a maritime group said Hormuz’s southern route along Oman remained open despite Iran’s closure claim, with threat level still “severe.”• Macro/Rates: Real 10-year Treasury yields rose above 2.3%, speculators held more than $40 billion of long-dollar derivatives, and swaps priced nearly 40 bps of Fed tightening by December.• Media: Disney’s live-action “Moana” opened with an estimated $95 million globally against a roughly $250 million production cost.• Autos/Labor: DOJ opened a grand jury probe into allegations against UAW President Shawn Fain; Fain denied wrongdoing.• Financials/Gulf: Banks are assessing exposure to a widening Saudi-UAE rift tied to more than $3 trillion in sovereign wealth.
Oil risk rises after Iran closes Hormuz
Geopolitical risk worsened after Tehran moved from threats to a declared Hormuz closure, while macro news leaned hawkish and EU platform risk broadened.• Energy/Iran: U.S. forces launched a third round of strikes after Iran hit the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy, leaving one crew member missing, and declared Hormuz closed until further notice.• Gulf/Defense: Bloomberg said Iran also launched drone and missile attacks on U.S. allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar, causing minor damage and no reported deaths.• Macro/Rates: WSJ-surveyed economists now see 2026 U.S. growth at 2.1%, recession odds down to 25%, but more persistent inflation and no room for Fed cuts.• Policy/Tech: The EU plans new consumer-protection rules targeting addictive design and dark patterns, with potential fines for large platforms including Big Tech.• Alternatives: PitchBook said private-equity fundraising topped $260 billion in 1H, favoring large managers such as KKR.