May 8, 2026

Gas tops $4.50 after Hormuz tanker traffic stalls

Energy-driven inflation risk stayed in focus, while credit data showed banks taking share from private lenders and Middle East security risks broadened beyond tanker traffic.• Hormuz/Oil: The US has now redirected 58 commercial ships since the Iran blockade began, one more than previously reported. NYT said at least six cargo ships crossed Hormuz since Wednesday, but no tankers.• Macro/Inflation: WSJ said the US average gasoline price surpassed $4.50 a gallon, with California above $6. Economists expect April CPI to rise 0.6%, according to Bloomberg’s preview.• Credit/Banks: Private-credit lending fell 14% in Q1, while US bank lending to companies rose 12.7%, Bloomberg reported, the fastest pace since 2022.• Geopolitics/Defense: Israel reportedly built a secret Iraq base for its Iran campaign; Rubio discussed US support for Qatari defenses after a Qatar-Saudi cease-fire call.

Qatar LNG tanker attempts Hormuz crossing as oil inventories drain

Energy risk remained the clearest market issue, with a tentative LNG transit test set against tighter inventory warnings and new European naval positioning.• Hormuz/LNG: Qatar-linked Al Kharaitiyat entered the strait on Tehran-approved northern route toward Pakistan; Bloomberg said no other vessel has been seen completing transit since recent clashes.• Oil/Inventories: Morgan Stanley estimated global oil stocks fell 4.8 million b/d from March 1-April 25; JPMorgan warned OECD stocks could hit “operational stress levels” early next month if Hormuz stays shut.• Gulf/Naval: The UK will deploy HMS Dragon to the Middle East for a UK-France escort mission once a stable truce allows.• Macro/Europe: Lagarde said ECB faces “massive uncertainty” over war-driven inflation and declined to confirm a June hike; inflation is 3%.• Crypto/Single Names: Trump Media reported a $405.9 million Q1 net loss, including about $370 million from crypto holdings.

China exports beat forecasts as US sanctions Chinese satellite firms

China trade resilience contrasted with fresh evidence that Hormuz disruptions are hitting energy flows, while sanctions and regional strikes kept geopolitical risk active.• China/Trade: April exports rose 14.1% from a year earlier versus 8.4% expected; imports jumped 25.3%, leaving an $84.82 billion surplus.• Energy/China: China’s crude imports fell about 20% year over year to the lowest since July 2022, while gas imports dropped 13% and oil-product exports slid 38%.• Geopolitics/Sanctions: The US sanctioned three Chinese satellite-imagery firms for allegedly helping Iran target US forces, days before Trump’s planned Beijing trip.• Rates/Macro: Goldman pushed its next two Fed-cut calls to December 2026 and March 2027, citing oil-driven inflation near 3% core PCE.• Autos/EVs: European interest in budget EVs rose after fuel-price gains; Mobile.de said German inquiries for sub-€30,000 EVs climbed 87% since early March.

S&P hits record as US sanctions Iran suppliers

Risk appetite held despite Gulf pressure, with closing market levels confirming that AI momentum and payroll relief outweighed oil and policy risks.• Markets/Tech: The S&P 500 closed up a little over 0.8% at a record, while the Nasdaq rose 4.5% for the week, its biggest six-week gain since 2009.• Gulf/Oil: Brent settled 1.2% higher at $101.29 and WTI at $95.42. The US sanctioned China- and Hong Kong-based suppliers to Iran’s missile and drone program, and Trump said he expected Iran’s response to the US proposal as soon as tonight.• Fed/Rates: Goolsbee said all rate options are on the table and pushed back against assuming the next move must be a cut.• AI/IPOs: Cerebras is said to plan a higher $125-$135 IPO range after demand topped shares available by more than 20 times.• Health Policy: Trump signed off on a plan to fire FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, according to NYT.

US expands Iran port blockade as Intel jumps on Apple deal

Equity dispersion stayed high as AI infrastructure deals drove stock-specific upside, while Gulf shipping news worsened and a claimed Russia-Ukraine pause remained unconfirmed.• Gulf/Oil: CENTCOM said US forces redirected 57 commercial vessels and disabled four others around Iranian ports; a US official said more than 70 tankers with 166 million barrels of capacity are being blocked.• Gulf/Shipping: S&P said no registered commercial ships crossed Hormuz for three days, while Windward said dark ship movements rose 600%; Iranian officials reported one crew death after a US strike.• Tech/AI: Intel rose more than 15% after WSJ reported an Apple chipmaking deal; Akamai jumped about 20% after Anthropic was identified as its $1.8 billion cloud customer.• AI/Credit: Apollo and Blackstone are in talks to provide Broadcom about $35 billion for AI semiconductor development.• Geopolitics: Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a May 9-11 ceasefire and 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap; neither side immediately confirmed it.

Consumer sentiment hits record low as Hormuz disruption expectations extend

Macro data turned less clean: stronger hiring supported equities at the open, but household confidence and Gulf logistics kept inflation risk central.• Consumer/Macro: University of Michigan preliminary May sentiment fell to a record-low 48.2 from 49.8; one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5%, and long-run expectations were 3.4%.• Gulf/Oil: Bloomberg reported Aramco and Adnoc are still moving some crude through Hormuz; non-Iranian flows are about 500,000 barrels a day versus 13.6 million before the war. A Goldman poll found most investors expect disruption beyond June.• Gulf/Military: CENTCOM named Sea Star III and Sevda as the tankers disabled by F/A-18 strikes; Iran described the cease-fire as “nominal” and said talks remain under review.• Markets/Rates: The S&P 500 opened up 0.4%, while the 10-year yield was near 4.378% after payrolls; participation fell to 61.8%, the lowest since October 2021.

Payrolls beat forecasts as tanker clashes escalate

Jobs data reduced near-term recession concern, but Gulf shipping risk and cost pressures remained the main inflation overhang for equities.• Macro/Rates: April payrolls rose 115,000 versus 55,000-65,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.3%, and March was revised up to 185,000; Treasuries were firmer before the print, with the 10-year near 4.37%.• Gulf/Oil: CENTCOM said the US disabled two Iranian-flagged tankers trying to reach an Iranian port, while Tasnim reported Iran seized the Ocean Koi tanker; China said nationals were aboard a tanker hit earlier and urged unimpeded passage.• Tech/Labor: A Trump proposal would lift H-1B salary floors, with Lawfully and Threshold estimating at least $18 billion of first-year costs for major employers.• Single Stocks: Coinbase resumed trading after a seven-hour AWS-linked outage; Brookfield Asset Management beat distributable EPS estimates, and packaging names faced weak demand plus higher energy and freight costs.

European stocks slide after UAE intercepts Iranian missiles

Risk appetite stayed fragile as renewed Iranian attacks on the UAE kept crude near $100, while company updates pointed to AI strength and war-related cost pressure.• Gulf/Oil: The UAE said it intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran, with three moderate injuries; Brent rose 0.6% to $100.64 and the Stoxx 600 fell 0.8%.• AI/Semis: TSMC April sales rose 17.5% to NT$410.7 billion; separately, US authorities suspect Nvidia chips in Super Micro servers were diverted to China via Thailand, while Alibaba denied involvement.• Metals/Autos: Freeport Indonesia delayed Grasberg’s full restart to early 2028 from early 2027, and Toyota guided FY operating income to ¥3 trillion versus ¥4.6 trillion consensus on Iran-related supply costs.• Rates/FX: Fed custody holdings of Treasuries fell $8.7 billion to $2.73 trillion, fueling debate that Japan may have sold securities to support the yen.

Trump says Iran cease-fire holds as China oil imports drop

Risk tone was mixed: Trump tried to preserve the Iran truce despite tougher threats, Asian equities weakened, and earnings added stock dispersion.• Iran/Oil: Trump said the cease-fire remained in effect, calling the US strikes a “love tap” and a “trifle,” but warned Iran of a more violent response if no deal is signed. Brent traded at $102.35, with WTI at $96.74.• Military/Shipping: US officials said strikes hit Iranian drone launch sites, coastal-defense missile sites and radars on Qeshm, Bandar Abbas and Garuk; Saudi Arabia reportedly lifted base and overflight restrictions but still has not backed Project Freedom.• Oil Demand: China cut overseas crude imports to 8.2 million barrels a day from about 11.7 million prewar, with state firms reselling cargoes.• Single Stocks: Block and Monster rose 8% after results, CoreWeave fell 9%, and Sony jumped 7.3% on a $3.2 billion buyback.• Tech/Regulation: A judge denied Google’s bid to pause part of the search remedy during appeal.

Trade court blocks Trump tariff as oil jumps

Legal and geopolitical risk pulled in opposite directions: a court narrowed Trump’s tariff powers, while fresh Gulf fighting lifted crude and pressured futures.• Trade/Tariffs: The Court of International Trade declared Trump’s 10% global tariff unlawful under Section 122, immediately blocking collection only for suing small businesses and states; an appeal is expected, and Section 301 replacements may take weeks or months.• Oil/Geopolitics: Brent rose 2.2% after-hours to $103.54 after reports of explosions at Qeshm, Bandar Abbas and Tehran; CENTCOM said no US assets were hit, while Iran accused Washington of violating the cease-fire.• Markets/Rates: S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3%, the dollar strengthened and the 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points.• Tech/AI: Nvidia agreed to invest up to $2.1 billion in IREN via warrants for as many as 30 million shares at $70.• Software: Cloudflare fell more than 15% late after cutting about 1,100 jobs and guiding second-quarter revenue slightly below consensus.

Oil stays below $100 after Saudi Arabia withholds support for US Hormuz escort plan

Crude stayed weaker despite heavier Gulf risk, while inflation-linked rate concerns and stock-specific earnings/IPO moves drove dispersion.• Hormuz: FT reported, citing people familiar, that Trump halted Project Freedom after Saudi Arabia refused US use of bases or airspace; Windward said AIS-dark Strait traffic rose 600%.• Iran/Oil: Iran said it had not responded to the US proposal, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Iran likely cut output by 400,000 barrels a day.• Rates/Consumer: NY Fed one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.6%, mortgage rates climbed to 6.37%, and Fed officials warned rates may stay high or rise if Hormuz remains closed.• Single Stocks: Cheniere fell nearly 10% on an unexpected $3.5 billion hedge-driven loss, Planet Fitness slid over 30%, and Hawkeye 360 rose 30% after its IPO.

Oil swings after US and Iran exchange fire near Hormuz

US stocks opened slightly higher even as Gulf headlines turned more kinetic and crude pricing became inconsistent across reports; earnings dispersion stayed wide in software, restaurants and financials.• Oil/Geopolitics: CENTCOM said Iran attacked three US destroyers with missiles, drones and small boats, prompting US strikes on Iranian launch, command and ISR sites; Brent was reported up 3.3% to $103.41, though later commentary still showed crude below $100 on diplomacy hopes.• Iran Diplomacy: WSJ detailed a one-page, 14-point US-Iran memorandum that could restart talks next week in Islamabad, wind back the US blockade, ease Hormuz controls and discuss moving some highly enriched uranium abroad.• Software: Datadog jumped after raising 2026 revenue guidance to $4.3 billion-$4.34 billion and adjusted EPS to as much as $2.44.• Consumer: Shake Shack fell as much as 22% on a revenue miss, while Planet Fitness dropped after cutting its 2026 sales-growth outlook to about 7%.• Banks: Citi targeted 11%-13% ROTCE by 2028 and 14%-15% by 2031; Carlyle missed as distributable earnings fell 28%.

Oil falls below $100 while Iran formalizes Hormuz transit permits

Oil extended its diplomacy-driven selloff, but Tehran also moved to institutionalize control of Hormuz traffic, keeping shipping risk alive.• Oil/Hormuz: Brent fell more than 2% to about $99 as markets priced progress toward US-Iran talks; Iran created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to permit and toll transits, and no ships crossed Wednesday.• Shipping/Credit: A CMA CGM vessel made a rare dark crossing out of the Gulf; Saudi PIF launched three-, seven- and 30-year dollar bonds, signaling Gulf issuance is reopening.• Energy/Transport: Shell beat with $6.92 billion of adjusted profit but cut buybacks to $3 billion; Maersk said the oil shock adds about $500 million of monthly costs.• FX/Rates: Japan likely spent about $30 billion in follow-up yen intervention, while Norway unexpectedly raised rates to 4.25%.• Tech: Arm fell about 10% premarket after saying supply limits constrain new-chip demand.

China curbs refiner lending as Asian stocks rally on US-Iran hopes

Risk tone improved in Asia, while China’s quiet compliance step on sanctioned refiners added a fresh wrinkle to Iran-oil enforcement.• China/Sanctions: Beijing told major banks to pause new yuan loans to five US-sanctioned refiners tied to Iranian oil, even after the Commerce Ministry told firms to ignore US sanctions.• Markets/Geopolitics: Japan’s Nikkei jumped 5% to near 62,500, Hang Seng rose 1.2%, Brent edged up 0.8% to $102 and the US 10-year yield held near 4.35%.• FX/Japan: Japan said it is monitoring speculative yen moves with urgency; Bessent is expected to meet Takaichi, Katayama and Ueda next week.• Travel/Health: The Hondius hantavirus outbreak has killed three and sickened five, with about 150 passengers and crew isolated en route to Tenerife.• Boeing/China: Sen. Daines said he hopes upcoming US-China talks lead to more Boeing aircraft purchases.