Apr 2, 2026

US aircraft losses widen after Iran hits A-10 and rescue helicopter

War risk worsened into the close, with fresh aircraft losses, signs Iran’s missile force remains resilient and new fuel-supply warnings for airlines.• Gulf/Security: People familiar told WSJ Iran hit a U.S. A-10; the pilot flew out of Iranian territory before ejecting and was rescued.• Rescue Mission: U.S. and Israeli officials said Iranian ground fire hit a U.S. Black Hawk during the F-15E rescue operation, though it reached Iraq safely.• Iran Capability: U.S. intelligence reports said Iran is reopening struck missile bunkers and still holds significant missiles and mobile launchers, contradicting claims of rapid degradation.• Airlines/Fuel: Lufthansa warned jet-fuel availability is already difficult at some Asian airports and could worsen the longer Hormuz remains blocked; DAL, UAL, AAL and JETS traded lower.

Cease-fire efforts stall while Abu Dhabi aluminum outage stretches to a year

Geopolitical risk stayed elevated, with diplomacy worsening and supply-chain damage becoming more quantifiable; budget details moved defense and space-exposure names.• Diplomacy/War: Mediators said Pakistan-led cease-fire efforts hit a dead end after Iran rejected meetings with U.S. officials in Islamabad; Qatar is also resisting a lead mediation role.• Metals/Supply: Emirates Global Aluminium said its Abu Dhabi smelter may take up to 12 months to fully restore output, tightening aluminum supply near four-year LME highs.• Defense/Budget: The Pentagon request includes 85 LMT F-35s, up from 47 last year, two Virginia-class submarines and $17.5 billion for Golden Dome missile-defense R&D.• Space/Budget: Trump proposed cutting NASA by about $6 billion, canceling 40 science missions and phasing out BA’s SLS and LMT’s Orion for commercial replacements.• Gulf/Security: Qatar said it intercepted Iranian drones; Abu Dhabi reported one death and four injuries tied to debris at Habshan, plus 12 injuries near Ajban.

Payrolls beat forecasts while Trump seeks $1.5 trillion defense budget

A firm payroll report pushed rates higher despite fresh growth warnings, while Washington’s war budget and shipping backstops added sector-specific support.• Macro/Rates: March payrolls rose 178,000, above all Bloomberg forecasts, unemployment fell to 4.3%, wages rose 0.2% month over month and two-year yields jumped to 3.85%.• Defense/Budget: Trump requested $1.5 trillion for fiscal 2027 defense spending, including $350 billion tied to Iran-war needs and munitions, alongside $73 billion of domestic cuts.• Shipping/Insurance: The DFC doubled its Hormuz marine reinsurance plan to $40 billion, adding Travelers, Liberty Mutual, Berkshire Hathaway, AIG, Starr and CNA with Chubb as lead underwriter.• Gulf/Security: U.S. officials said one F-15E crew member was rescued, another remained missing, and an A-10 also crashed near Hormuz; Iranian-linked outlets reported a U.S. rescue mission under fire.• Macro/Services: S&P Global’s U.S. services PMI fell to 49.8, its first contraction since 2023.

Oil risk rises after Gulf energy attacks expand

Energy-security risk worsened overnight as attacks hit Gulf infrastructure and US military losses raised escalation risk; one Hormuz transit offered a limited shipping offset.• Gulf/Energy: Kuwait Petroleum said a drone hit the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, igniting several units; Kuwait also reported damage to a power and desalination plant.• UAE/Gas: Abu Dhabi halted Habshan, its main gas processing facility, after debris from an intercepted attack started a fire; Saudi Arabia said it intercepted more drones.• US/Iran: US forces searched for an F-15E crew member after Iran shot down the jet; Trump threatened bridges and then power plants if Tehran does not move fast toward a deal.• Shipping/Hormuz: CMA CGM Kribi became the first known Western Europe-linked container ship to pass Hormuz since the war began, while the UN said 20,000 seafarers remain trapped.

Kuwait intercepts attacks as Microsoft readies $10 billion Japan AI plan

Geopolitical spillovers broadened into Kuwait and Japanese defense procurement, while Asia macro data and Microsoft’s AI spending offered separate equity signals.• Gulf/Security: Kuwait said air defenses were intercepting hostile missile and drone attacks, adding a new Gulf target set beyond the UAE.• Tech/AI: Microsoft announced a four-year, $10 billion Japan AI and cloud plan with Sakura Internet and SoftBank, above its prior $2.9 billion two-year pledge.• Defense: Bloomberg reported Japan’s roughly 400 Tomahawk order faces delivery disruptions because US inventories are being consumed in the Iran war; RTX was indicated lower.• Asia/Macro: China’s RatingDog services PMI fell to 52.1 from 56.7, missing the 53.6 consensus.• FX/Energy: Japan warned it is ready for “bold action” after the yen slid near 159.7 per dollar.

Drug tariffs hit pharma as WTI settles above $111

Policy and geopolitical risks broadened beyond crude, though US equities finished slightly higher after a sharp morning selloff.• Pharma/Tariffs: The White House authorized tariffs of up to 100% on some patented imported medicines, with generics exempt for now and 15% caps for several allied markets.• Energy/Markets: WTI settled 11.4% higher at $111.54, its biggest daily gain since 2020; Brent closed at $109.03, while the S&P 500 rose 0.1% and Nasdaq added 0.2%.• War/Security: US forces struck Iran’s B1 bridge twice; Iranian officials said eight people were killed and 95 wounded, while Trump warned there was “much more to follow.”• Tech/Region: The IRGC claimed it hit Oracle’s data and computing center in the UAE, extending threats against US technology targets in the Gulf.• Metals/Tariffs: The administration kept 50% tariffs on many imported steel, aluminum and copper products while revising derivative-product rules.

Physical oil tops $140 as chip-tool crackdown advances

Oil-market stress broadened from futures into physical barrels and refined products, while Washington added a fresh China-tech risk and companies began passing through fuel costs.• Oil/Products: Dated Brent jumped to $141.37 a barrel, the highest since 2008; northwest Europe jet fuel closed at a record $1,904 a ton, up 18% on the day.• Hormuz/Shipping: Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Tehran will set tolls for Hormuz passage; Norway said charging ships in international straits would violate sea law, and Bloomberg said Western-owned vessels are unlikely to pay.• Energy/Supply: BNEF said Middle East oil-product exports in March fell by 4.8 million barrels a day from prewar levels to about 2.8 million, with jet-fuel exports down 85%.• Tech/China: US lawmakers proposed the MATCH Act to tighten chip-tool controls on China, targeting ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA.• Retail/Logistics: Amazon will add a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for many sellers.

Stocks recover after Iran drafts Hormuz protocol with Oman

Risk assets whipsawed, with an early oil-led selloff fading after Tehran signaled a possible managed path for Hormuz traffic; single-name pressure broadened in autos and private-credit managers.• Markets/Hormuz: US stocks recovered to flat after the S&P 500 had fallen 1.5%, and oil eased to $106 from a $109.50 high after Iran said it was drafting a Hormuz traffic protocol with Oman.• Autos: Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in 1Q, below the 372,160 Bloomberg consensus, while Ford deliveries fell 8.8% as F-Series sales dropped 16%.• Private Credit: Blue Owl capped two BDC redemptions at 5% after exit requests reached 21.9% and 40.7%; OWL fell as much as 10% premarket and peers dropped at least 4%.• Macro/Rates: Jobless claims fell to 202,000, below 212,000 expected, but the IMF said the Fed has little scope to cut rates this year.

UAE reports new missile barrage while Macron rejects military Hormuz reopening

Energy risk stayed bid, but the main incremental developments were a wider Gulf attack count and fading allied appetite for a forceful Strait of Hormuz solution.• War/Gulf: The UAE said 19 missiles and 26 drones targeted the country Thursday, adding to signs the Gulf theater remains active after Trump’s address.• Hormuz/Diplomacy: Macron said reopening Hormuz by military means is “unrealistic” and would require consultation with Iran; the Philippines said Iran assured safe passage for its vessels, energy cargo and seafarers.• Oil/Supply: Iraq began trucking 50,000 barrels a day of crude through Syria to the Mediterranean and Europe after exports fell from more than 3 million barrels a day to about 250,000.• Markets/Companies: Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.9%, the VIX rose near 27 and 10-year yields reached 4.37%; KKR raised a record $23 billion Americas buyout fund, while Unilever’s selloff reached 24%.

Diesel hits 2022 high after Iran strikes broaden across Gulf

Energy and inflation stress intensified, with broader risk assets selling off and governments moving from contingency planning toward fuel-security measures.• Energy/Fuels: Brent rose about 7% to near $108, European gas gained as much as 7.2%, and European diesel futures hit $1,493.25 a ton, or more than $200 a barrel, the highest since 2022.• War/Security: Iran kept firing after Trump’s address; the UAE reported minor Abu Dhabi damage, Saudi Arabia intercepted one missile and five drones, and Israel reported five launch sets by midmorning.• Markets: S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.4% drop, South Korea’s Kospi fell about 4.5%, Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.4%, gold fell roughly 3% and silver more than 5%.• Policy/Supply: The UK will chair roughly 35 nations on Hormuz options, while China told private refiners to keep 2025 fuel output levels at any cost.

Oil jumps after Trump threatens further Iran strikes

Trump’s address reversed the relief trade: oil risk repriced higher, equity futures and Asia sold off, and rates reflected renewed inflation concern.• Oil/Iran: Trump said the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks and could strike power plants or oil facilities if no deal emerges; Brent rose about 5% to roughly $106.• Markets/Rates: S&P 500 futures fell about 1%, Asia-Pacific shares dropped as much as 1.7%, two- and 10-year Treasury yields rose four basis points, and the dollar gained against G-10 peers.• Shipping/Supply: Lloyd’s List counted 201 Hormuz transits since the war began versus more than 3,000 monthly before; Kpler said Persian Gulf fertilizer loadings fell to 1.495 million tons from 3.364 million a year ago.• Asia/Policy: China drained $129 billion of short-term liquidity in March, while Guangdong ordered higher coal inventories and lower gas use.

WTI drops below $99 while US intelligence doubts Iran talks

Relief trades extended after hours, but the Iran endgame looked less certain as new intelligence and supply-chain evidence cut against a clean ceasefire narrative.• Oil/Iran: WTI fell as much as 1.8% to $98.37 ahead of Trump’s address, even as US agencies assessed Iran is not willing to enter substantial negotiations and believes it is in a strong position.• Energy/Shipping: TankerTrackers said no LNG tankers departed through Hormuz in March; Western Australia invoked emergency powers to obtain fuel-supply data amid shortages.• Tariffs/Industrials: The administration is preparing a 25% tariff on finished goods made with imported steel and aluminum, and separate pharma tariffs could be announced Thursday for drugmakers without White House pricing deals.• Deals/Tech: Globalstar jumped more than 20% after the FT reported Amazon is in acquisition talks.• Security/Tech: The UK embassy in Saudi Arabia told Britons to avoid US-linked businesses after IRGC threats against US companies.

Stocks rise after US signals conditional Iran ceasefire openness

Risk appetite held into the close, but the ceasefire path remained conditional and military headlines worsened around Hormuz.• Iran/Markets: The S&P 500 closed up 0.7% and Nasdaq rose 1.2%; Brent settled 2.7% lower at $101.16 and WTI fell 1.2% to $100.12.• Diplomacy/War: The US told mediators it is open to a ceasefire if Hormuz is open and safe, while Iran still denied requesting one. Trump sent JD Vance with a warning that pressure on Iranian infrastructure would rise absent a deal.• Military/Nuclear: The Pentagon is doubling A-10s in the region, Rosatom will evacuate more than 200 Bushehr staff, and Iranian media said strikes hit Hengam Island and injured a senior foreign-policy figure in Tehran.• Washington: GOP leaders reached a tentative deal to fund DHS through Sept. 30, though hard-right opposition could still slow passage.• Semis/Credit: Micron, SanDisk and Western Digital gained more than 8%; KKR capped redemptions at its K-FIT private-credit fund.

Lilly wins obesity-pill approval as UAE seeks UN-backed force for Hormuz

Single-name catalysts broadened beyond the Iran tape, though Gulf headlines still kept energy risk two-sided.• Pharma: Lilly’s once-daily obesity pill Foundayo won expedited FDA approval at a $149 monthly cash-pay starting dose; LLY rose as much as 4.5%, while Novo ADRs fell 2.6%.• Oil/Geopolitics: The UAE asked the UN to authorize measures, including force, to reopen Hormuz, and Dubai said it intercepted projectiles. Bloomberg also detailed IRGC tolls starting near $1 a barrel, payable in yuan or stablecoins.• Energy/Markets: Exxon fell about 5%, erasing roughly $36 billion of market value, on pace for its largest one-day market-cap loss since 2008 as oil-relief hopes hit energy shares.• Space/IPO: SpaceX confidentially filed for a possible June-July IPO, with reported fundraising estimates ranging from $40 billion to $80 billion.• AI Infrastructure: Related Digital neared $16 billion of financing for an Oracle data-center campus in Michigan.

Oil pares losses after Iran rejects Trump’s ceasefire claim

US data were firmer, but the market’s war-relief trade became less clean after Tehran denied Trump’s ceasefire claim and kept Hormuz leverage in place.• Oil/Hormuz: Trump said Iran asked for a ceasefire and tied any US consideration to Hormuz reopening; Iran called the claim false, and the IRGC said the strait would not reopen on Trump’s demands. WTI moved back above $100 and Brent traded near $102.• Macro/Rates: ADP payrolls rose 62,000 versus 40,000 expected, retail sales rose 0.6%, and ISM manufacturing reached 52.7, but prices paid jumped to 78.3.• Tech/War: Amazon’s Bahrain cloud operation was damaged in an Iranian strike, according to the FT; AWS had already reported regional disruption.• Semis: Intel will pay $14.2 billion, including about $6.5 billion of new debt, to buy back Apollo’s Ireland fab stake.• Retail: Nike fell 13%, touching its lowest intraday level since 2015.

Trump weighs NATO exit as Saudi oil exports halve

Risk tone stayed constructive in premarket trading, but the relief rally met fresh alliance risk and hard evidence that Gulf oil flows remain severely impaired.• Geopolitics/NATO: Trump told The Telegraph he is strongly considering a US exit from NATO, calling the alliance a “paper tiger”; UK PM Starmer reaffirmed NATO support and said Britain will not join the Iran war.• Oil/Hormuz: Saudi crude exports fell 50% in March to 3.33 million b/d, with 55 million barrels stranded in the Gulf; Brent recovered above $100 and physical cargoes still carried roughly a $9 premium.• Shipping/Diplomacy: The UK will convene 35 G-7, European and Gulf counterparts to plan a Hormuz reopening; Turkey is seeking Iranian permission for 11 ships to leave.• Stocks/Deals: S&P futures rose 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures 1%; Nike fell 15.5%, Boeing rose 4.2% on a DoD missile-seeker deal, and Lilly agreed to buy Centessa for up to $7.8 billion.

Brent falls below $100 after Trump signals Iran exit

Relief trades strengthened in oil, rates and equities, though fresh attack details and conflicting Trump-address reporting left the de-escalation path uncertain.• Oil/Markets: Brent fell below $100 for the first time in a week and WTI traded near $98 after Trump said US operations could end in two to three weeks; Hormuz remained largely closed.• Rates/FX: Treasuries rallied, with two- and 10-year yields down as much as 6 bp to 3.73% and 4.26%; the Bloomberg dollar index fell as much as 0.4%.• War/Shipping: QatarEnergy confirmed an Iranian cruise missile hit the Aqua 1 tanker, with no injuries or environmental impact; the UAE reported one death from intercepted drone debris.• Airlines/Fuel: Ryanair warned 10%-25% of May-June fuel supplies may be at risk if the war continues.• India/FX: RBI curbs forced at least $30 billion of rupee-arbitrage unwinds; the rupee slid to about 94.80.

Oil edges higher after tanker is hit near Qatar

Risk sentiment stayed firmer in Asia, but fresh Gulf shipping and infrastructure attacks kept the oil-risk premium alive.• Shipping/Oil: A tanker 17 nautical miles north of Ras Laffan, Qatar, was hit by two projectiles; the crew was safe, one fire was extinguished, and Brent traded above $105.• War/Infrastructure: Iranian drones struck fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, causing a large fire and significant damage but no casualties, according to Kuwait’s civil aviation spokesman.• War/Strait: Iranian state media said Bandar Abbas’s Shahid Haghani port was hit in a wave targeting critical infrastructure near Hormuz; Israel said it completed strikes on Iranian government infrastructure in Tehran.• Markets/Credit: The Kospi gained more than 7%, Nikkei 4.5%, and Asian investment-grade CDS fell at least seven basis points, the biggest drop in 11 months.• Private Credit: House Democratic staff are questioning Blackstone, Ares, Apollo, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Carlyle and KKR on private-credit marketing, leverage, valuations and PIK exposure.