Betting on an Anthropic Pre-IPO Valuation Rerating Through DXYZ at a Discount

Analysis

The OP views the closed-end investment company Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) as a high-beta vehicle for trading Anthropic's IPO in advance. The core premise is that the company reported NAV of $34.30 per share as of June 30, 2026, while its share price was approximately $30 at the time of the post, representing a discount of roughly 10% to 13% to the lagging reported NAV. The OP uses May 2026 as a comparison: DXYZ had disclosed NAV of $24.56 per share, yet its shares once closed at $61.66, illustrating that the security could command a sentiment-driven premium far above NAV when expectations rise for listings by prominent private technology companies. On the asset side, Anthropic represented approximately 14.4% of the portfolio at the end of June, corresponding to about $236 million. The portfolio also had exposure to private technology companies including OpenAI, SpaceX, Databricks, and Shield AI, while money market funds accounted for 57.3% of the portfolio. The company subsequently allocated another $150 million in cash to a vehicle providing exposure to OpenAI equity, so this transaction primarily shifted the asset mix from cash to private equity rather than creating $150 million of NAV out of thin air. The OP states that Anthropic's previous funding-round valuation was approximately $965 billion, while market rumors suggest a potential IPO valuation of $2 trillion. If DXYZ's position could be marked up by approximately the same multiple, a rough calculation indicates that it could add about $250 million in value to the fund, potentially increasing NAV per share by several dollars at the current scale. However, the actual outcome would also depend on SPV fees, ownership terms, dilution, liquidity discounts, and the fund's valuation policies. The OP further assumes that overall NAV rises to $40 and presents several discount and premium scenarios: a 20% discount implies $32, while premiums of 25%, 50%, and 100% imply $50, $60, and $80, respectively. These are not independent valuation models or explicit price targets; they are scenario prices obtained by multiplying an assumed NAV by market-sentiment multiples. The primary catalysts are Anthropic publicly filing an S-1 and completing a formal listing, with the OP expecting DXYZ's premium to expand as the event approaches. CEO Sohail Prasad's recent purchase of 56,000 shares at approximately $31 to $32 per share, for about $1.77 million, is also viewed as a signal of confidence. The OP's position consists of 1,000 DXYZ shares and 50 call option contracts with a $40 strike price expiring December 18, 2026, indicating that the trade depends heavily on a near-term catalyst. The biggest flaw is treating a historical premium as a repeatable pattern and assuming that the IPO valuation will be directly, promptly, and fully reflected in NAV. The thesis also overlooks high fees, the indirect SPV structure, delayed NAV reporting, the possibility that the IPO is postponed or priced below the rumored valuation, post-listing lockups, continued ATM issuance, and option time-value decay. In particular, the share price at the time of the post was only slightly below the stale NAV, which does not guarantee that the same margin of safety remains relative to the current real-time value of the assets.

Discussion Summary

The discussion continues to view DXYZ as an event trade around the S-1 rather than a long-term hold. Supporters believe increased volume and Anthropic filing an S-1 could drive the premium back up. Some comments offer an optimistic scenario of $70-$80 and speculate that late September to early October could be the window, but these are all community conjectures. A new clarification notes that DXYZ itself can be traded at any time like a stock; the restrictions apply to the fund's underlying private holdings, which may remain locked up after the IPO and be subject to price volatility. Critics again emphasize that Anthropic accounts for only about 14.4%, meaning each $1 invested provides only about $0.144 of related exposure, rather than a truly highly leveraged "hidden call option." High fees, dilution, and delayed catalysts remain the core risks, with no material change in the overall view.

Fact Check

• supported: DXYZ's NAV was $34.30 per share as of June 30, 2026, and Anthropic represented approximately 14.4% of the portfolio, worth about $236 million. — A prospectus supplement filed by DXYZ with the SEC confirms NAV of $34.30 per share, a portfolio of approximately $1.64 billion, and Anthropic exposure equal to 14.4% of the portfolio, implying a value of about $236 million.
• supported: DXYZ traded at a share price of $61.66 in May 2026 against NAV of $24.56. — The NAV date corresponding to the disclosure was actually March 31, 2026, while $61.66 was the closing price on May 21, 2026. The figures themselves are valid, but they are not from the same date.
• supported: DXYZ recently invested another $150 million to increase its OpenAI exposure. — The company disclosed that on August 13, 2026, it committed an additional $150 million to Goanna Capital 26E LLC to obtain exposure to OpenAI Class A common stock. The funding came from existing cash and cash equivalents, so the transaction was primarily a portfolio reallocation.
• questionable: Anthropic's previous funding round valued it at approximately $965 billion, and it may pursue the largest IPO in history at a valuation of approximately $2 trillion. — Media reports have discussed a $965 billion funding-round valuation and a potential IPO valuation of up to approximately $2 trillion, but the $2 trillion figure remains an unconfirmed target or rumor. The final offering valuation, timing, and amount raised could all change.
• supported: CEO Sohail Prasad recently purchased approximately 56,000 DXYZ shares near $31 to $32 per share, worth about $1.8 million. — An SEC Form 4 reports that he acquired a total of 56,000 shares from September 1 through September 3, 2026, at weighted-average prices of $31.40, $31.53, and $32.14, for a total of approximately $1.767 million. A filing footnote uses the word “sold,” but the transaction codes and changes in share ownership both indicate purchases.
• unsupported: Historically, DXYZ has almost never traded below NAV, so the current discount represents an excellent entry point. — The original post provides only one instance of a substantial premium and does not include a complete historical series of discounts and premiums. A closed-end fund's discount or premium can be affected by sentiment, fees, liquidity, new share issuance, and confidence in asset valuations, so a single example is insufficient to establish a long-term pattern.