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Betting on Short-Dated AFL Options Based on a Prediction of a Megaquake in Japan
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Thank you all for supporting the mission and here's the updated portfolio screenshot from someone who's either going down as King Regard or the Most Legendary Autist You'll EVER Know Of, me, according to your comments from yesterday.
If you're not familiar, modern history's greatest earthquake is about to strike Japan (M9.3+, at least) and by taking out $AFL stock we could alert Japan and save lives, including my sister, who lives in San Jose California, who is (probably rationally) ignoring her brother, and who could get hit with Japan's tsunami and possibly, a major earthquake in that vicinity as well. The original post is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/2juMgBi8DI
Since then, I made today's post to go into more detail (as Reddit limited my post to 20 photos or something, idk, I'm new to this) and really keep the momentum going. Keep in mind I'm just an idiot. Brent Dmitruk (@mxdondevivo) is the true genius I've been reverse engineering and decided to act on. And surprisingly, there are other randos that have been on this too.
Imagine you have two tectonic plates. Orange is pushing into Blue. What you'll frequently see happen is Blue will buckle under pressure with several earthquakes while Orange stays quiet until Orange releases.
The depth is also important too. During the time when Orange is pushing into Blue, you could have smaller shallow earthquakes that could be caused by anything but really not a sign of pressure being relieved, or really deep earthquakes that's really mantle level activity. There may even be subsections. So, when you're looking at earthquake gaps and gauging pressure, you really have to understand the whole picture. And you must know whether you're looking at Blue vs Orange squares or Red vs Blue squares based on what cycle you're in.
That brings us to my first image from yesterday. Brent's area of quiet that existed for 354 days before a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake happened in this area. That's like a third of the world at quick glance. That's no joke.
And it's a specific area too because it's the "Orange vs Blue" situation that's analogous to the events that led up to 2004 and the M9.1 that happened in the Indian Ocean. And this is where you get to see that Brent did not cherry pick the data, he's been well aware of what would happen the whole time. If you go back into his posts you'll see he called the 2004 analogy from the beginning.
You can go back and see more but I think that does a good job and I only have so many images/time. So now let me show you the events that happened int 2004 vs today and you can decide for yourself how true this analogy is and if true, how soon you think it will happen.
First, the pressure in the "Orange vs Blue" area was building for a whopping 171 days in 2004. This is after a "Booster Sequence" that I'm going to skip for now but it's essentially other periods of quiet leading up to the big period of quiet and the big quakes.
In 2026 we "built pressure for 354 days when it broke on March 24 with a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in Neiafu Tonga (See previous "cherry picking" image). Then, within a span of 52 days in 2004 and 27 days in 2026 we got FOUR magnitude 7+ earthquakes that went from Fiji, up to Japan in that considerably short period of time.
I liken this to the tectonic plates "repositioning". It seems like all the pressure that was acting on it is now being forced in a different direction and will create stronger "pulses" of increasingly higher magnitudes until it can relieve and release. Probably because the Earth finds the position too "uncomfortable" and makes more and more aggressive action to resettle.
In between this "repositioning" and when the stronger pulses start was 09/05/2004-10/05/2004 and 4/20/2026-05/31/2026. Here you see what I call "reactionary events" that's pretty typical of events kinda regardless of which "Orange vs Blue" situation you're dealing with. Looking at the timeframes differences you'll notice it's pretty similar but not entirely similar and it's part of the reason why Japan will be hit instead of the Indian Ocean. It's analogous; not the same. Also, it's just the nature of things. In other words, these periods are pretty non-eventful.
But then we get back to "repositioning" and the pulses. To do so we must look at another region in the "Blue vs Orange" in more in depth (pun intended).
This region in red had already been absent M6+ for just over 200 days when you filter out surface level fractures which can be caused by buckling under pressure rather than crust action (10km or less) or mantle activity (79km or more - really mantle work is deeper than this but the gap exists up to this point). As we talked about before. But now it's collecting the built-up pressure in bigger pulses and different places. The pulses can't seem to break this red box area so they leak out in other regions and the intensity increases with each "pulse" where each pulse takes just over a month in both eras.
In early October, 2004 a M7 pulse ripped, followed by a M7.5 pulse in early to mid November, followed by a M8 pulse in late December which finally set off the M9 in the Indian Ocean shortly after.
Compare that to 2026 and you'll see a M7.4 Pulse, a M7.8 Pulse, and now we're awaiting a M8.2 Pulse that will set off a M9.3
The reactionary events have to be stripped from the pulses. So In the instance of the 7.8 that hit the Philippines it had two main reactionary chains. One went North to Japan which led to Japan's Antipode near Drake's passage.
Where another went from the Phillipines to it's antipode Venezuala and then to it's antipode near Fiji. (Obviously it's not exactly antipodal but roughly so).
And of course there are a ton of other reactionary events thrown in that are smaller. The last pulse of M7.8 was on 6/07 so we're expecting a bigger pulse, say M8.2 to hit this week or next which, like in 2004 could set off a M9 in Japan.
This coincides with other indicators I've seen that seem to not get the whole picture but try to forecast earthquakes such as 1) air voltage readings. Apparently this dude named Dyson Lin @ dyson_lin_1969 studied air voltage spikes from his tomato plants and learned to forecast earthquakes and has evolved his method from there.
As of this morning even he reported what a Weather Administration was picking up as well as what he was showing the Yilen Station was receiving before. The Yilan station readings show that the larger, longer, and shape of the graph depict where and how strong an earthquake will be.
There's also 2) the Kirin Earthquake Institute that studies gravitational waves, among other things whose readings have been going absolutely bonkers
- The moon's phase of apogee vs perigee and 4) the fact Japan went extremely silent on the weekend which last time that happened produced a pulse like less than 10 days after. etc. etc.
Honestly, I've been awake for 24 hours writing and rewriting this stuff. I hope I helped people but I have a 1 week old, a 4yr old, and a 2 yr old. I'm an air traffic controller, investor, and want to make a video game. I'm exhausted and im going to pass out. Godspeed friends. Don't let the Japanese die. I love them. And my sister too (mostly).
The poster focuses on Aflac Inc. (AFL). The core trade is not based on traditional insurance valuation, earnings, or capital returns, but on an extreme disaster scenario: he believes Japan is about to experience a mega-earthquake of at least M9.3 and argues that shorting AFL can trigger market and public awareness, thereby “saving Japan.” The position screenshot attached to the post shows that his main holdings are AFL put options expiring on July 17, 2026: roughly 28 contracts of the $113 put and 834 contracts of the $114 put. In the screenshot, the $114 put position has a market value of about $41,000, a cost of about $6,672, but at the time showed an unrealized loss of about $34,400, down about 83.75%; the $113 put position had a market value of about $999 and an unrealized loss of about $579. Overall, this is a highly short-duration, extremely high gamma/theta-risk disaster-event bet. The poster’s argument mainly comes from his retelling of views from Brent Dmitruk / an X account and a series of USGS earthquake-list screenshots: he reduces global plate activity to a model of an “orange plate pushing a blue plate,” and believes that a broad region spanning the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and the Americas experienced an unusually long “gap” in earthquakes above magnitude 6.7 during 2025-2026, lasting about 354 days, exceeding the supposed benchmark gap of about 171 days before the 2004 Indian Ocean M9.1 earthquake. He then compares events such as the M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, 2026, the M7.4 near Bitung, Indonesia on April 1, the M7.4 near Miyako, Japan on April 20, the M7.8 near the Philippines on June 7, and the M7.2/M7.5 in Venezuela on June 24 with sequences before the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake involving Fiji, Japan, the Solomon Islands, Colombia, and others, arguing that these represent plate “repositioning” and increasingly strong “pulses.” He suggests the next step may be an approximately M8.2 foreshock or pulse, which would then trigger an M9-class event in Japan. The images also include numerous boxed maps, epicenter-path arrows, depth-filter screenshots, a so-called antipodal chain, and fringe precursor materials such as air voltage, tomato plants, and Kirin Earthquake Institute “gravity wave” readings. In investment terms, the poster’s implicit assumption is that AFL has enough exposure to Japan that, if Japan suffers a mega-earthquake and tsunami, Aflac Japan’s claims, investment assets, FX exposure, and capital pressure would cause AFL’s share price to plunge within a very short time, enough to substantially increase the value of his near-expiration put options. AFL does indeed have significant Japanese operations: in 2025, Aflac Japan adjusted revenue accounted for about 53% of the company’s total adjusted revenue, so Japan-related macro or disaster risk is not irrelevant to the company. However, the post does not provide key insurance analysis on AFL’s earthquake mortality coverage, medical insurance, reinsurance, reserves, capital adequacy, catastrophe-scenario losses, yen asset-liability matching, or regulatory buffers, nor does it offer a testable price target or valuation framework. The biggest flaw is the earthquake prediction itself: the poster treats after-the-fact selections of magnitude, depth, region, time windows, and path analogies as a causal mechanism, and uses fringe precursor indicators, lacking any predictive capability recognized by authoritative earthquake agencies. Even if Japan faces major long-term earthquake risk, the specific short-term timing call that an “M8.2 this week or next week will trigger an M9.3” remains highly unverifiable. At the stock level, even if a major regional earthquake occurs, AFL’s actual financial impact would depend on policy structure and capital management, which the post barely discusses. Therefore, this looks more like options speculation driven by a disaster prophecy than a complete company fundamental analysis.
No usable comments are available. At the time of scraping, the Reddit comment count was 0, so there is no substantive community support or rebuttal regarding the poster’s earthquake prediction, AFL’s Japan risk exposure, or the options position. The current assessment can only be based on the main post itself, and the discussion sample is insufficient.
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