ABVX Bets on a Re-Rating of a New Ulcerative Colitis Drug

The target discussed by the poster is Abivax (ABVX), a clinical-stage biotech company listed in France/the U.S., whose core asset is once-daily oral obefazimod. The investment thesis rests on two levels: first, large pharmaceutical companies face a patent cliff over the next few years and need to replenish pipelines through M&A or licensing; second, ABVX's obefazimod has strong late-stage clinical data in ulcerative colitis (UC), and recent cancer safety concerns have been eased by newly added data, so it may once again become an acquisition target. The poster says that by 2030, drugs with about $400 billion in annual sales will face loss of patent protection, and Big Pharma needs external assets to replace revenue; as a small biotech company with patents on a potential blockbuster drug, ABVX may benefit from this industry backdrop. At the drug level, the poster emphasizes that obefazimod was initially developed as an HIV antiviral, but was later found to have significant effects in UC; compared with current treatments' early control rates of 15%-35% and long-term control rates of 25%-50%, obefazimod achieved a clinical remission rate above 50% in maintenance therapy, about 40 percentage points higher than placebo, and also showed good rescue effects in initial induction non-responders and relapsed patients. For example, after continuing 50mg treatment, 37.2% of induction non-responders achieved clinical remission, and after relapsed patients were increased to 50mg, about 45% regained clinical remission. The poster further cites market expectations, saying that peak sales for the UC indication alone may be $3.5-$4.0 billion, and if Crohn’s disease is approved, that would add another $3-$4 billion in annual sales potential. The company plans to submit an NDA to the FDA by the end of 2026, and the poster believes the market expectation is that it will be acquired before submission; if it is not acquired, it could also become a high-cash-flow company after successful commercialization. On the trading side, the poster says the stock was around $100 a few weeks ago, but fell after some patients had cancer reports, reducing the near-term probability of M&A; subsequently, the company disclosed follow-up data showing that the incidence of malignancies was consistent with the UC background rate, which the poster believes removed the safety overhang. The conclusion is that ABVX could achieve a 2-3x move by year-end, and the poster recommends using long-dated calls to capture the uncertain timing of a pharmaceutical acquisition announcement, while also believing that the stock price will rise slowly enough to offset part of the IV crush. An important gap is that the post equates 'safety data easing concerns' with 'high-probability M&A,' a leap that lacks direct evidence; the acquisition price, timing, and buyer are all only inferences. The current share price has already risen significantly from $100, and comments also note that another 2-3x move from the current price is more difficult. Another risk is that ABVX still mainly depends on a single core asset, the NDA has not yet been submitted, and FDA review, labeling, safety interpretation, commercialization capability, and competition from rival oral drugs and biologics will all affect valuation. The post says there was a position screenshot, but this scrape did not provide an image attachment, and the preview image in the comments also suggests it may have been deleted, so the poster's actual options position, expiration dates, strike prices, or capital size cannot be verified.

The comment sample is very small, and most comments mock biotech speculation and 'drinking coffee while listening to fund managers.' Some people questioned whether this was an institutional account pumping the stock; OP responded that their account is 9 years old with relatively high karma and is not a new account. The more substantive rebuttal was that ABVX has already rallied from the $80-$100 range, so achieving another 2-3x from the current price will not be easy, although the company itself is good and still has upside. Another comment noted that the position screenshot claimed by the poster can no longer be displayed.