Microsoft’s Low Valuation After the Pullback and the Azure Bet

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After the recent selloff for Microsoft stock i compared it to the performance of Alphabet and Amazon going back to January 2024.

While Microsoft has returned 0% since January 2024, Alphabet has gained 158% and Amazon 58% in the same timeframe.

Microsoft has a current P/E ratio of 22, which has been the bottom within the last 10 years, peaking at 39 four times. The average has been around 30-35.

In conclusion i see Microsoft as very cheap considering the current stock price. Sure CapEx has been high, but the investments will show in Azure growth. OpenAI is obligated to run ChatGPT on Microsoft Cloud, as long as there is capacity available. Besides AI there is still a lot of room for Cloud usage in general, so i dont see a realistic risk of these investments turning into a problem. The business is growing, so the recent selloff seems unjustified.

Bought Leaps 2 weeks ago, bought again last friday and will do so again if the stock keeps falling / stagnating.

Whats going on here?

Affected Tickers
MSFTGOOGAMZN
Post Analysis Summary

The core ticker discussed by the OP is Microsoft (MSFT). The conclusion is that Microsoft is undervalued after its recent pullback, so the OP is adding to the position in batches using long-dated options (LEAPS). The evidence chain mainly comes from two charts: the first puts MSFT, Alphabet/GOOG, and Amazon/AMZN on the same TradingView chart for stock-price performance since January 2024, noting that Microsoft has roughly gone from $382 back to about $382 in June 2026, for a return of about 0%, while Alphabet rose from about $141 to about $364, or around +158%, and Amazon rose from about $152 to about $240, or around +58%; the chart also notes that Microsoft’s P/E was about 36-38 at the start of 2024, versus about 21-22 now. The second chart shows Microsoft’s P/E range over roughly the past 10 years. The author believes that, aside from distortion caused by the 2018 U.S. tax reform, Microsoft’s valuation has generally fluctuated between about 22x and 39x, with the current 22.8x close to the bottom of the range, while it has reached 39x multiple times historically and the normal average is around 30-35x. From this, the author interprets “a flat stock price plus profit growth causing P/E compression” as an opportunity for valuation repair rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. On the fundamental narrative, the author acknowledges that AI and data-center CapEx are very high, but believes these expenditures will show up in Azure growth, and that the binding relationship between OpenAI/ChatGPT and Microsoft Cloud will provide underlying support for Azure demand. The author also believes there is still substantial room for cloud migration and enterprise cloud usage, so they do not think current investment will become sunk cost or overcapacity. In terms of positioning, the title says “Full Port,” but in the comments the OP clarifies that they still have 60% cash and are only continuing to deploy capital. The main post does not provide specific contract strikes, expirations, costs, price targets, or a valuation model; it only describes the trading actions of “buying LEAPS 2 weeks ago, buying more last Friday, and buying more if it keeps falling or moves sideways.” The most important implicit assumptions are: Microsoft’s profit growth can continue, the return on AI CapEx is sufficient to cover the cost of capital, OpenAI demand will still mainly land on Azure, and the market will be willing to re-rate Microsoft’s P/E from the low 20s back above 30x. The main weaknesses are also obvious: the author uses historical P/E ranges and peer stock-price performance to infer undervaluation, but does not break down revenue, EPS, free cash flow, depreciation, AI gross margins, the capital-expenditure cycle, or differences in relative growth; the gains in GOOG and AMZN since 2024 do not directly prove that MSFT should catch up; if the market’s concern is that high CapEx will drag down future FCF, that OpenAI has bargaining power, or that cloud competition is intensifying, then the low P/E may be a risk repricing rather than merely an unjustified selloff.

Discussion Summary

The discussion remains divided. Supporters view the heavy bearishness as a contrarian signal, emphasizing Office/Windows enterprise stickiness, Azure demand, and the scarcity value of cloud/data centers. Some say Azure resources are tight and that they continue to buy shares or long CALLs; others argue that MSFT has historically deserved a higher P/E than GOOGL because of its defensive nature. Bears continue to focus their complaints on the Windows/Outlook/Teams/Copilot/GitHub experience, question whether AI relies only on OpenAI, and cite a lack of a chip/IP moat, arguing that sentiment and technicals could still drag it to around 320. OP added that their options are 2028 LEAPS, that they will hold for months to years and bought another $10,000, saying the next earnings report will set the tone, with the core thesis being cloud first and AI second.

Fact Check
supported
MSFT’s current price is around $382, with a P/E of about 22x.
At the time of retrieval, market data showed MSFT at about $377.57, with an intraday high of $382.88 and a P/E of about 22.45; this is broadly consistent with the main post image’s $382 and 21-22x, though the real-time price was slightly lower.
supported
GOOG is currently around $364 with a P/E of about 27-30, and AMZN is currently around $240 with a P/E of about 28-29.
Market data showed GOOG at about $364.10 with a P/E of about 27.77; AMZN at about $243.37 with a P/E of about 29.11, which basically supports the comparison data in the image.
supported
Microsoft’s recent CapEx is very high, but Azure and cloud demand are still growing strongly.
Microsoft’s FY2026 Q3 conference call disclosed Microsoft Cloud revenue of $54.5 billion, up 29%, and expected capital expenditures of about $190 billion in calendar year 2026; this supports the statement that high CapEx and strong cloud demand coexist.
supported
OpenAI/ChatGPT must run on Microsoft Cloud/Azure when capacity is available.
Microsoft’s official April 2026 blog said Microsoft remains OpenAI’s primary cloud partner, and that OpenAI products will be released on Azure first unless Microsoft is unable to and elects not to support the required capacity; this is directionally consistent with the main post’s claim that it runs on Microsoft Cloud as long as there is capacity, though the main post’s wording is more absolute.
questionable
Microsoft’s P/E bottom over the past 10 years is about 22x, the peak is about 39x, and it is currently near the bottom.
The current P/E being close to 22x is supported by market data, but public historical P/E data vary significantly by methodology, and Microsoft’s 2018 tax reform impact plus different TTM/forward definitions can create extreme values; using only a historical range to judge undervaluation is not sufficient.

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