MNDY's Cash and Buyback Story After Valuation Compression

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To start this off, i hate SaaS. I generally invest in consumer / financials. However this is so cheap i feel retarded not loading up...

First of all, i personally use Monday, I spend 20k/year on it. I moved from Salesforce to Monday and i wouldn't go through the pain of switching CRMs again if you offered me 100k out of pure pain and data cleaning(especially after factoring in employee training and time).

I am also a subscriber to claude pro for 2,000/month for 10 people, it integrated great with Monday, i do not see either replacing the other.

This company just bought back 15% of their float and have 1.2B in cash with a 3.5B market cap.

TRADING AT 3X CASH IN THE BANK

The profit margin is already crazy, i cant imagine if they are able to cut even 1/3 of their staff with AI code.

Revenue
Q3 2025: $316.9M (+26% YoY)
Q4 2025: $333.9M (+25% YoY)
Q1 2026: $351.3M (+24% YoY)
FY 2025: $1.232B (+27% YoY)

Cash on Hand
Q3 2025: $1.74B (cash + securities)
Q4 2025: $1.67B
Q1 2026: $1.21B ($997M cash + $213M securities)

Buybacks
Q3 2025: $0
Q4 2025: $135M (~884K shares)
Q1 2026: $553M
Total program: $870M authorized | $182M remaining

Operating Income (Non-GAAP)
Q3 2025: $47.5M (15% margin)
Q4 2025: $41.9M (13% margin)
Q1 2026: $49.0M (14% margin)

Free Cash Flow
Q3 2025: $84M
Q4 2025: $87M
Q1 2026: $102.8M (29% margin)

FY26 Revenue Guidance: $1.466B-$1.474B (+19-20%)

Positions: 1000 Shares +25k in calls

I will double down if this thing drops anywhere near 50-55.

Affected Tickers
MNDYTEAMCRM
Post Analysis Summary

The subject discussed by the poster is monday.com (MNDY), a SaaS platform for work management, CRM, and enterprise collaboration. The core view is that although the poster usually dislikes SaaS, MNDY has become cheap enough after a major selloff to justify a large position, because the company is still maintaining roughly 20% revenue growth, has achieved non-GAAP profitability and high free cash flow, and has nearly $1.2 billion of cash and securities on its balance sheet, while its current market cap is about $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion, making the valuation look like only about 3 times cash. The poster also uses his own user experience as qualitative evidence: he spends about $20,000 per year on Monday, previously migrated from Salesforce to Monday, and believes CRM migration, data cleanup, and employee training costs are high, creating strong customer stickiness. He also subscribes to Claude Pro and says Claude integrates well with Monday, so he does not believe AI assistants will directly replace Monday, and may instead be complementary. In terms of financial evidence, the main post lists Q3 2025, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026 revenue of $316.9 million, $333.9 million, and $351.3 million, respectively, with year-over-year growth slowing from 26% to 24%; FY2025 revenue was $1.232 billion, up 27% year over year. In Q1 2026, the company guided FY2026 revenue to $1.466 billion to $1.474 billion, implying 19% to 20% growth. On profitability, the poster emphasizes non-GAAP operating income of about $40 million to $50 million per quarter, margins of about 13% to 15%, and Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow of about $102.8 million with a 29% margin, showing the company is not a pure cash-burning growth stock. Capital allocation is the most important quantitative pillar of the post: the company repurchased about $135 million in Q4 2025 and about $553 million in Q1 2026, with cumulative authorization of $870 million and $182 million still remaining. The poster says this is equivalent to repurchasing about 15% of the float. The screenshots further support the size of the position: one options screenshot shows 71 MNDY $75 calls, with a market value of about $23,430 and an unrealized loss of about 5.43%; another holdings screenshot shows about 1.04K shares of MNDY, average cost $75.04, market value about $70,408, and an unrealized loss of about $7,633, while the page shows the price at the time was around $67, with a 52-week high of $316.98 and low of $57.50. The poster also says he would double down if the stock falls to around $50 to $55. The implied valuation framework is mainly market cap/cash, revenue multiples, and free cash flow yield, rather than traditional GAAP EPS. The catalysts include continued buybacks reducing share count, AI driving internal efficiency gains, CRM/enterprise customer stickiness, and the market repricing high-growth profitable SaaS. The biggest weaknesses are: revenue growth is clearly declining from the high-20% range toward around 20%; SaaS sector sentiment and valuation multiples may continue to compress; the '3 times cash' argument ignores that cash consumed by large buybacks no longer functions as an operating-value safety cushion, and it does not carefully calculate enterprise value, dilution, SBC, or the quality of future growth; some quarterly free cash flow figures do not fully match the official adjusted FCF metric; the idea that AI could let the company lay off one-third of employees and improve margins is speculative and not a management commitment; personal user experience can indicate product stickiness, but is not enough to represent overall customer retention, the competitive landscape, or the macro IT spending environment.

Discussion Summary

The new discussion remains somewhat scattered, but it is more substantive than before. Skeptics mainly ask what the short-term catalysts are, whether this is catching a falling knife, and one project manager said the Monday platform is hard to use. Supporters pushed back, saying that even if companies hate a tool, they may continue paying for it because of migration costs. The prior divide continues: some worry that sentiment toward software stocks and selling pressure from pledged shares could weigh on the stock, while others think the bearish sentiment is exactly the entry point. OP added that their $75 call expires in June and that they are adding August contracts, saying LEAPS are too expensive, that they prefer adding shares over the long term, and warning that liquidity in longer-dated spreads is poor.

Fact Check
supported
MNDY Q1 2026 revenue was $351.3 million, up 24% year over year, and the company guided FY2026 revenue to $1.466 billion to $1.474 billion, implying growth of 19% to 20%.
monday.com's official Q1 2026 earnings release disclosed revenue of $351.3 million, up 24% year over year; full-year revenue guidance was $1,466 million to $1,474 million, up 19% to 20% year over year.
supported
The company had about $1.2 billion in cash and securities at the end of Q1 2026.
The official balance sheet shows cash and cash equivalents of about $997.1 million and marketable securities of about $215.1 million as of March 31, 2026, totaling about $1.212 billion; the main post's figure of $213 million in securities is close to the official $215 million.
supported
The company recently repurchased about 15% of the float, repurchased about $553 million in Q1 2026, had total authorization of $870 million, and had $182 million remaining.
The company officially disclosed Q1 repurchases of about 7.269 million shares for about $553 million, with about $182 million still available under the $870 million authorization. Based on Q1 diluted shares of about 48.9 million, the repurchase size is close to 15%, but the main post did not provide a strict float calculation.
supported
MNDY's current market cap is about $3.5 billion, roughly equal to 3 times the cash on its balance sheet.
At the time of retrieval, market data showed MNDY's market cap at about $3.31 billion; compared with Q1-end cash and securities of about $1.212 billion, that is about 2.7 times, broadly consistent with the main post's 'about 3 times' claim. However, this is a rough market cap/cash statement and not a complete valuation analysis.
questionable
Some quarterly free cash flow figures listed in the main post were about $84 million for Q3 2025, about $87 million for Q4 2025, and about $102.8 million for Q1 2026.
Q1 2026 adjusted free cash flow of $102.8 million is supported by the official release; however, official search results show Q4 2025 adjusted free cash flow of $56.7 million, not $87 million. Q3 2025 official adjusted FCF also appears to be about $92.3 million, so the main post's $84 million may reflect a different FCF metric.
unsupported
If the company can use AI coding to lay off one-third of its employees, margins will improve substantially further.
Management has indeed mentioned that AI-driven productivity gains could make revenue growth less tied to headcount growth, but it has not committed to or disclosed the possibility of laying off one-third of employees. This claim is the poster's high-operating-leverage assumption.

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