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Apple's (AAPL) top and bottom lines may look vastly different years from now if SpaceX's (SPCX) Starlink becomes a major player in the wireless industry.
Elon Musk's rocket business said late last week that it acquired a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. This positions Starlink, Musk's satellite business, to challenge legacy wireless giants such as AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), and T-Mobile (TMUS) across the US.
The challenge could pose a key threat to Apple, BofA analyst Wamsi Mohan said.
"The key implications for Apple are (1) risk to carrier subsidy model, (2) potential for a competitive device that takes share, (3) Integration with Tesla/SpaceX ecosystem including Grok creates an end-to-end competitor including AI capabilities," Mohan explained in a new note on Monday.
Mohan estimated that about 53 million iPhones a year move through the Big 3 wireless providers, with a blended promotional credit of $800 a unit. Subscribers who switch to Starlink potentially lose the subsidy, which could lengthen their replacement cycle or lead to a trade down to lower-end phones.
A 10% shift of Big 3 postpaid phone subscribers to SpaceX could cost Apple about 5 million units, or $6 billion in revenue, Mohan said.
"A shift with a successful Grok-powered low-cost SpaceX phone and carriers retrenching promos across their remaining base could be potentially higher," Mohan said. "We see the bigger risk as the valuation multiple where the debate becomes US iPhone pricing power and the durability of the US premium mix with lower carrier subsidies."
He added, "Near term, carriers are likely to defend with heavier promotions, a tailwind for upgrades. Starlink Mobile works on unmodified handsets, so most switchers keep or buy iPhones."
SpaceX (SPCX) isn't going quietly into what could be an eventful 2027.
Elon Musk's rocket business said late last week it acquired a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. It positions Musk's satellite business, Starlink, to challenge legacy wireless giants across the US.
Shares of AT&T (T), T-Mobile (TMUS), and Verizon (VZ) tanked on the news on Friday.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is reportedly seeking to raise $40 billion in financing to purchase Nvidia chips.
"The debate is whether a company this early in its public life should carry that much leverage," Yorkville Ives partner Dan Ives said. "We think the contracted backlog in AI and the cash generation of Starlink give SpaceX the capacity to service it, and we would rather see this compute financed and deployed than deferred."
With the year winding down, here is a helpful calendar of potential catalysts for SpaceX in 2027 to tuck away for later. It's important to be overprepared as an investor, especially on a news-driven stock like SpaceX.
Of everything on the calendar, we would circle June 12, 2027 (and the weeks leading up to it). Elon Musk agreed not to sell any of his roughly 40% to 46.1% equity stake (more than 6 billion shares) for 366 calendar days following SpaceX's IPO on June 12, 2026.
Investors will carefully watch whether Musk sells SpaceX stock after the lockup. For one, a large supply of stock in the market from Musk could weigh on the share price. And two, the mere sign of Musk selling may unsettle the SpaceX believers.
Meta announced Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full AI models, initially intended for paid Muse subscribers; shares rose 3.4% to $742.96. IonQ fell 9.2% after its $1.3 billion Elisity acquisition, which StoneX says could strengthen its quantum cybersecurity capabilities. Raymond James upgraded T-Mobile to outperform, calling SpaceX competition concerns overblown. Morningstar warned CXMT could struggle to commercialize its smaller-cell chip structure by its planned end-2026 debut. JPMorgan says AI stocks could generate up to 70% of Asia’s earnings growth in 2027. Goldman Sachs says China’s technology gap with the West appears to be narrowing. European semiconductor shares were mixed, while Bell Potter lowered Life360’s Australian target price 5.9% to A$32.
Third-quarter earnings begin Tuesday, led by major banks, with analysts expecting quarterly declines in profits, trading revenue, and investment banking revenue amid soaring yields. ASML reports Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor Thursday. Wednesday’s September consumer inflation report could help determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in October or December; traders price roughly 80% odds of an October increase. September’s quarter-point hike brought rates to 3.75%-4%. Verizon fell 5%, AT&T nearly 7%, and T-Mobile over 6% Friday after SpaceX announced a nationwide spectrum acquisition agreement, fueling concerns about Starlink competition. SpaceX plans a terrestrial wireless network and second-generation Starlink Mobile satellites in 2027.
T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon Communications each fell at least 8% Friday after news that Elon Musk’s SpaceX was buying spectrum licenses to build a competing mobile network; SpaceX shares gained more than 1%. Crown Castle rose almost 16%, American Tower more than 9% and SBA Communications 7%, with Barron’s saying tower operators could gain a major customer. Broader stocks rallied: the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 gained 0.6%, while the Dow added 423 points, or 0.8%. Brent crude rose 0.4% to $104.72. Delta cut its annual profit outlook, citing a $6 billion fuel-cost increase, but its shares finished virtually flat.
Shares in AT&T, Verizon Communications and T-Mobile US fell sharply Friday in the wake of SpaceX’s $8 billion spectrum deal, the Elon Musk-led company’s biggest move yet into the wireless market.
AT&T and Verizon suffered their biggest one-day declines in more than 24 years. For T-Mobile, it was the worst percentage drop in more than 13 years.
SpaceX said Thursday it had agreed to buy cellular spectrum licenses from investment firm Grain Management. Specifically, SpaceX wants spectrum that can cover places satellite links can’t reach, such as inside buildings. SpaceX has said it wants to move its Starlink satellite service beyond broadband, and this acquisition could make it a more serious threat to the leading consumer wireless carriers.
Starlink already provides internet connectivity via thousands of satellites in low-Earth orbit, as well as basic wireless connections in remote areas through a T-Mobile partnership.
SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile expansion heightened competition concerns: T-Mobile fell 13%, AT&T and Verizon each lost 10%, while Crown Castle rose 12%. Teva gained 6% after FDA approval of Weltruza for adult schizophrenia. Avient fell over 7% after CEO Ashish Khandpur stepped down. Delta lost almost 2% following disappointing third-quarter earnings and lowered its annual earnings outlook, citing fuel costs. Lumentum rose about 7% after its CEO said optical components were sold out through 2029. Following Medicare ratings updates, Humana surged 12% and Alignment Healthcare fell almost 14%. Apple declined nearly 2% after Nikkei Asia reported weaker demand and 15% cuts to October production orders for iPhone 18 Pro models.
Telecom stocks fell Friday after Elon Musk’s SpaceX agreed to buy nationwide spectrum from Grain Management to expand Starlink into mobile service. Verizon fell roughly 10%, T-Mobile 13% and AT&T around 10%, heading for their worst days since 2002, 2013 and 2000, respectively; SpaceX rose about 1%. The portfolio includes up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band. FCC Chair Brendan Carr welcomed competition and said over $100 billion of spectrum would probably enter the market within two years. JPMorgan said the deal strengthened Starlink Mobile’s long-term prospects but cited limited near-term risk to incumbents because building a competitive terrestrial network requires time, infrastructure and capital.
SpaceX (SPCX) plans to acquire nationwide 800 MHz spectrum to strengthen Starlink Mobile’s coverage, including indoors, pending final FCC approval. Evercore’s Kutgun Maral called it a clearer step toward direct-to-consumer service but cautioned that capacity remains limited. According to Evercore, management expects next-generation satellite launches in 2027 and potential full 5G-quality service in early 2028. The FCC also approved 15,000 Gen2 mobile satellites. TD Cowen’s Gregory Williams suggested terrestrial-network plans could be leverage for an MVNO agreement, estimating construction costs above $80 billion. JPMorgan’s Sebastiano Petti sees limited near-term competitive risk but potentially higher spectrum-auction spending.
SpaceX (SPCX.O) agreed to acquire nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum licenses from Grain Management, covering up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum, in a deal reportedly worth $8 billion and awaiting FCC approval. Low-band airwaves travel farther and penetrate buildings better than higher frequencies, supporting broad mobile coverage. SpaceX plans to combine satellite connectivity with terrestrial infrastructure for Starlink Mobile, integrating the spectrum into its next-generation satellite system and installing radios and antennas on towers and rooftops. This week, the FCC approved Starlink Mobile’s Gen2 constellation application, authorizing 15,000 satellites optimized for 2 GHz spectrum worldwide.
Bernstein expects confident semiconductor earnings outlooks despite AI spending concerns and projects TSMC’s dollar revenue to grow 41% this year. SpaceX agreed to acquire former T-Mobile 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management; AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell 7.5%, 7% and 6.7% after hours. Goldman Sachs upgraded Palantir to buy from neutral. David Ellison said the $81 billion Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery combination positions Skydance for growth and debt reduction. Jefferies cited investor concerns about Schneider Electric’s proposed $22.6 billion PTC acquisition. UBS expects SAP’s cloud backlog growth to slow to 24%–25% in third-quarter results due Oct. 21.
If SpaceX (SPCX) CEO Elon Musk wants to put pressure on wireless carriers — and even Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (005930.KS) — he would develop a phone to run specifically on Starlink.
"Elon says he doesn't want to make a phone," well-known tech analyst Gene Munster wrote in a new X post. "I still think SpaceX eventually will. A vertically integrated handset on a Starlink mobile network could deliver features carriers can't match, and cheaper service. That's a bigger problem for Samsung than Apple. Apple's device and services tie-in is harder to break."
Musk's SpaceX just sent a strong message to the wireless industry: It's coming for its share of the subscriber pie.
Late Thursday, SpaceX said it will acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio. It positions Musk's satellite business Starlink to challenge legacy wireless giants across the US.
Shares of AT&T (T), T-Mobile (TMUS), and Verizon (VZ) were down in premarket trading on Friday on the news. SpaceX shares rose 4%.
Concerns had already escalated across Wall Street that Starlink could disrupt legacy wireless operators like AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile by transitioning from a rural broadband service into a direct mobile competitor.
Following its strategic acquisition of terrestrial spectrum and rapid deployment of advanced satellites, SpaceX had laid the groundwork to launch its own standalone cellular network alongside its direct-to-cell capabilities.
Now it looks like all systems are go for SpaceX.
"We think the addition of low-band spectrum makes Starlink a more credible Mobile operator given the ability of the lower band spectrum to penetrate buildings," KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel said.
Shares in SpaceX are up after the company reached a deal to buy cellular spectrum licenses in a move to become a major wireless carrier.
For SpaceX investors, news came as a relief from disquiet about the bill for its AI ambitions. The stock closed 4% lower yesterday after news that the company had talked to lenders about raising $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips.
The new wireless business doesn’t even exist yet, but it’s already causing market ripples.
Gaining: Tower operators
Shares in American Tower REIT (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI) and SBA Communications (SBAC), which own cell towers and lease space to carriers, jumped.
That’s because while SpaceX owns satellites, it needs infrastructure on the ground to support a mobile network. The U.S. licenses are in the 800-megahertz band used to provide wireless service from cellphone towers.
Losing: Other wireless carriers
Shares in AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) are sinking.
“This is likely to be viewed as negative for wireless carriers, which we have a difficult time arguing against,” analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets wrote. Still, it may take a long time for this competitive threat to arrive, given that SpaceX has only just got permission to launch 15,000 satellites for the new service.
Treasury yields near a quarter-century high and widening credit spreads are weakening the usual borrowing-cost cushion against an economic slowdown. Economist David Rosenberg says investors are beginning to price in default risk, while concerns about government creditworthiness and the Fed’s tougher inflation stance add pressure. The article says U.S. growth is driven almost entirely by AI data-center investment, while economically sensitive sectors signal caution. Rosenberg says $2 trillion in excess pandemic-era household savings prevented a recession after the Fed’s 2022 rate hikes, but those savings are now exhausted. He puts recession odds over the next year-and-a-half at roughly 50%.
Wall Street’s three major indexes rose Friday and recorded weekly gains as investors awaited bank earnings and inflation data next week. The Dow gained 0.83%, the S&P 500 0.59% and the Nasdaq 0.64%; the Russell 2000 declined for the week. LSEG data showed analysts expected third-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 30.6%. T-Mobile US, AT&T and Verizon fell 8.8%-13.3% after SpaceX agreed to acquire nationwide low-band spectrum. Humana rose 11.6% after government data showed 95% of its members were in Medicare Advantage plans rated at least four stars for 2027. Apple fell 1.1% following a report of supplier production cuts.