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President Trump said Friday he had agreed with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel immediately amid high prices. Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports until April. Russia’s Alexander Novak said exports could reach 300,000 tons in October, 500,000 in November, one million in December and potentially three million monthly later. Edward Fishman questioned Russia’s capacity after Ukrainian strikes damaged refineries, while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky said the deal would support Putin’s war effort. Analyst Kevin Book said the volumes would be relatively small and could affect prices modestly. U.S. diesel averaged $6.28 a gallon Friday, compared with $3.68 a year earlier, according to AAA.
How much stock-market value independent U.S. fuel makers Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have added all together this year.
That is more than the combined values of Occidental Petroleum, EOG Resources and Diamondback Energy, three of the country’s biggest independent oil producers.
Refiners are collecting on record-high margins for diesel and other fuels as global supplies shrink and prices skyrocket—and their earnings are set to go gangbusters in the third quarter.
Walmart’s decade-long, multibillion-dollar warehouse automation effort faces challenges, including maintaining operations during upgrades, said U.S. supply-chain chief Rob Montgomery. Walmart and its robotics partner are installing small wheeled robots in more than a dozen warehouses. Taylor Farms CEO Bruce Taylor said that, starting next year, the company will stop U.S. and Canadian sales of iceberg lettuce harvested or processed in central Mexico from May 1 through Aug. 31; the cyclospora outbreak’s cause remains publicly unidentified. Analysts expect Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 to exceed their near-record second-quarter earnings as conflicts tighten global fuel supplies and widen refining margins.
Analysts expect Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 to surpass previous earnings highs in the third quarter as wars disrupt fuel supplies and widen refining margins. Middle East outages, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and reduced Asian exports recently drove average U.S. diesel prices to a record $6.53 a gallon. JPMorgan forecasts Valero’s quarterly pretax earnings at $8.95 billion, up 50% from the previous quarter. Industrial Info Resources reported 12.1% of global refining capacity offline in September. Trump officials and industry representatives have discussed restarting two closed California refineries, according to people familiar with the matter, but analysts warn of major obstacles.
Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 earnings rose 27% year-on-year in the September quarter, driven by AI infrastructure spending, with revenue growth of 12%. FactSet expects earnings growth across all 11 sectors and says a record 72 companies issued positive guidance. Energy earnings are forecast to rise 114% after oil prices surged following the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. Analysts expect Big Tech to contribute most earnings growth; Goldman estimates Micron and Nvidia will account for over one-third of the total expansion. Concentration is raising concerns as borrowing costs rise. Goldman expects hyperscaler capital expenditure growth of 116%, while Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding warns slowing investment would threaten economic resilience.
Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy warned that tanker shortages were driving up freight costs despite increased oil exports from the Gulf. He estimated daily flows at 12 million barrels of crude and 2 million barrels of refined fuels after the US Navy cleared a route through the Strait of Hormuz. Hardy said maintaining these flows was crucial to avoiding $200-a-barrel oil because the seven-month conflict had depleted inventories. Tanker transfers in the Gulf of Oman were tying up ships. Brent traded below $98 on Tuesday, but European refining margins had turned negative, making production cuts likely and potentially worsening fuel shortages.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth announced an Autonomous Warfare Command to lead the military’s use of unmanned weapons. He said he expected internal resistance. The command will operate alongside other combatant commands and can deploy weapons and purchase drones and other autonomous systems. Separately, people familiar with discussions said President Donald Trump’s advisers had presented options to address a fuel crisis, including restrictions on diesel exports. A White House official said Trump was considering the options but had made no decision on exports. In a Dallas Fed survey of 100 oil and gas companies, almost half expected diesel prices to take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels.
The Dallas Fed said oil and gas output in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico rose in the third quarter of 2026, but producers questioned whether war-driven high prices would persist. US oil production reached a weekly record of 13.955 million barrels per day in the week ending September 25, the EIA said. Survey respondents expected year-end WTI prices averaging $88 a barrel and Henry Hub gas at $3.29 per million British thermal units. Refiners benefited from wider margins as war disrupted fuel supplies; third-quarter utilization averaged 96.3%. Diesel pump prices reached $6.528 a gallon on September 22, while the Trump administration reportedly considered diesel export restrictions.
President Donald Trump said Sunday he is “very seriously” considering a US diesel export ban to address high prices, though his administration is examining alternatives. Diesel exports reached a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day last month, while US retail diesel prices hit a record last week and average about $6.50 a gallon. Farm-state lawmakers have urged export limits during the fall harvest. Senior advisers have analyzed a possible short-term ban; Energy Secretary Chris Wright said officials are working with refiners on voluntary curbs. Oil executives and industry groups instead favor suspending the federal diesel excise tax, a proposal facing internal debate.
President Trump and the White House are reportedly preparing a 90-day diesel export ban amid record fuel prices following the start of the Iran war. US diesel averaged $6.52 per gallon Wednesday, according to AAA. The US produces 5.3 million barrels daily and exports 1.67 million, RSM Research data show. Experts warn that restricting exports could reduce refiners’ revenues and prompt production cuts. GasBuddy analyst Patrick de Haan said transport constraints complicate moving Gulf Coast supplies to regions facing shortages. He argued that a ban would not address global shortages driving prices higher, while Rabobank’s Michael Every said it would not provide a lasting solution.
Morgan Stanley warned that a potential Trump administration ban on US diesel exports could raise domestic gasoline prices. In a Sept. 23 note cited by Bloomberg, analysts said export restrictions could fill storage tanks within weeks, forcing refiners to cut processing by about 2 million barrels a day. Even if refiners maximized gasoline production, supply could fall roughly 650,000 barrels daily. The bank said a ban, which is not its base-case forecast, would lower US diesel prices but increase overseas costs, particularly in Europe. Calls for restrictions have grown after diesel prices reached records amid the US-Iran war and Russia-Ukraine conflict.
US diesel futures fell 4% Wednesday after Politico reported a planned 90-day export ban, which the White House denied. AAA put average diesel prices at $6.52 a gallon, near record highs. Trump backed an export ban Tuesday; inventories were below 97 million barrels, about 13% below the five-year seasonal average. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday a ban would not work and could raise gasoline and jet fuel prices. He said the administration was pursuing voluntary cooperation with refiners to increase diesel supply, with no decisions made. Analysts warned a ban could lower US diesel prices but hurt refining margins and reduce refinery output.
Heating oil prices are surging ahead of winter as global fuel supplies tighten. New York retail prices reached $6.14 a gallon, 66% above a year earlier. About 4.8 million U.S. households, mainly in the Northeast and Alaska, use heating oil. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association expects their typical winter bill to rise 43% to roughly $2,500 from $1,749 last year. Supply has been constrained by the Strait of Hormuz closure, Houthi threats, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. New England distillate inventories are 2.9 million barrels, below the five-year average of 4.9 million. Natural gas, electric, and propane heating costs are also expected to increase.